Optimal management of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud.) in phase rotations in the Western Australian Wheatbelt*

Lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) helps to prevent soil salinisation in the Western Australian Wheatbelt by reducing recharge to saline water tables. There is broad consensus, though, that it is not sufficiently profitable to motivate producers to plant it at the intensity at which considerable off‐site benefits would be conferred. This paper employs a multiple‐phase optimal control model to explore the value of this perennial pasture for the management of herbicide‐resistant annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud.) in a crop–pasture rotation, given the difficulty of observing this value in practice. The availability of selective herbicides for efficient weed control is found to determine whether or not it is profitable to adopt lucerne pasture under optimal management. Herbicide resistance requires producers to employ costly, non‐selective treatments for in‐crop weed control. Thus, it motivates the adoption of perennial pasture in which cost‐effective forms of control can be implemented. Moreover, this result is robust to feasible changes in the current economic environment.     

Evaluating combined land conservation benefits from perennial pasture: lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) for management of dryland salinity and herbicide resistance in Western Australia*

The inclusion of perennial pasture phases in cropping rotations has been widely promoted throughout Australia for reducing the incidence of dryland salinity. To a lesser extent, they have also been promoted to enhance the management of herbicide‐resistant weeds. No previous economic analysis of perennial pasture has considered both of these benefits. This study combines a dynamic linear programming model to estimate the magnitude of salinity‐related benefits and a complex simulation model to assess the economics of herbicide‐resistance management. We present a case study of the perennial pasture lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in the Wheatbelt of Western Australia, where the weed annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaudin) is resistant to multiple herbicide groups. Sequences incorporating lucerne are the most profitable land use at the standard set of parameter values if (i) annual ryegrass is resistant to all selective herbicides, (ii) the water table is so shallow (approximately < 3.5 m deep) that frequent rotation with perennials is required to avert soil salinisation, (iii) sheep production is highly profitable, or (iv) there is a combination of less extreme cases. The value of perennial pasture is sufficient under these circumstances to overcome its high establishment cost and the displacement of multiple years of crop. Consideration of dryland salinity and herbicide resistance are about equally important in evaluating the economics of lucerne; neither should be neglected.     

Optimisation of a Large,Constrained Simulation Model using Compressed Annealing

Simulation models are valuable tools in the analysis of complex, highly constrained economic systems unsuitable for solution by mathematical programming. However, model size may hamper the efforts of practitioners to identify efficiently the most valuable management strategy. This paper investigates the efficacy of a new stochastic search procedure, compressed annealing, for the identification of profitable solutions in large, constrained systems. The algorithm is used to examine the value of incorporating a sown annual pasture, French serradella (Ornithopus sativus Brot. cv. Cadiz), between extended cropping sequences in the central wheatbelt of Western Australia. Compressed annealing is shown to be a reliable means of considering constraints in complex optimisation problems relative to the incorporation of fixed penalty factors in standard simulated annealing and genetic algorithms. French serradella is found to be an economic break pasture in the study region when weed populations are high or sheep production is lucrative.     

“Resistance is futile”: estimating the costs of managing herbicide resistance as a first‐order Markov process and the case of U.S. upland cotton producers

A 2012 survey of upland U.S. cotton producers was analyzed to determine the factors contributing to changes in weed management costs (WMCs) after the identification of herbicide‐resistant weeds. An ordered probit regression estimated changes in WMC as a first‐order Markov process. The most important determinants of post‐resistance cost increases were initial WMCs, adoption of labor‐intensive remedial practices, and wick application of herbicides. Cultivation and mechanical/chemical‐intensive practices did not increase WMCs. Post‐resistance changes in WMC ranged between $85 and $138 ha^?1, depending on the practices adopted. WMCs increased by $88 ha^?1 when cost‐neutral practices were adopted. The in‐sample aggregate costs of managing herbicide resistance ranged between $25 and $53 million, depending on the types of adopted practices.     

Economic analysis of different options in integrated pest and soil fertility management in maize systems of Western Kenya

The major biotic constraints to the production of maize, the major staple food in Western Kenya, are field pests such as Striga and stem borers, and low soil fertility. To counter these constraints, new cropping systems have been developed, including “push‐pull,” rotations with promiscuous soybean varieties and green manure crops, and imidazolinone resistant‐ (IR‐) maize. To analyze the technical and economic performance of these technologies, both with and without fertilizer, on‐farm researcher‐managed long‐term trials were implemented over six seasons in two sites each in Vihiga and Siaya districts of Western Kenya. The economic results, based on marginal analysis using a multioutput, multiperiod model, show that the new cropping systems with fodder intercropping (push‐pull) or soybean rotations were highly profitable. Push‐pull is more profitable but requires a relatively high initial investment cost. Green manure rotation, IR‐maize, and fertilizer all increased yields, but these investments were generally not justified by their increased revenue. We argue that research on rotation and cropping systems to tackle pest and soil fertility problems in Africa deserve more attention. This will require increased collaboration between agronomists and economists to set up long‐term experiments with new cropping systems to develop proper economic models.     

From weed to wealth? Prospects for medic pastures in the Mediterranean farming system of north-west Syria

Medic (Medicago spp.) pastures are widely grown in rotation with dryland cereal crops in Mediterranean climate zones of Australia. Attempts since the 1960's to introduce this system to Mediterranean west Asia and north Africa (the native region of medic) have not lead to significant adoption; farmers in the region recognize medic, but as a weed and natural pasture plant. This first detailed economic evaluation of the rotational medic system was conducted using a whole-farm linear programming model based on the agricultural system of north-west Syria. The model represents in detail impacts of rotation on yields, labor requirements of alternative farm activities, availability of family and hired labor, subsistence income requirements, livestock feed sources and uses at different times and a choice of sheep stocking rates. Biological data for the analysis are based on a large six-year cropping and grazing experiment near Aleppo on terra-rossa soil with rainfall mainly in winter and averaging about 330 mm annually. The trial compared a dryland medic-wheat system and traditional two-year rotations of wheat with: fallow, watermelon, lentil and vetch. Results indicate that, given current prices and yields from the trial, medic is less profitable than traditional rotations. The model was used to investigate situations in which medic would be economically preferred. Selection of a medic rotation by the model was found to be particularly sensitive to the area of the farm and the price of labor. On small farms, labor availability per hectare is high, favouring the production of labor intensive crops such as lentil and watermelon. On larger farms, labor costs of these enterprises are substantial, increasing the relative profitability of medic, especially if labor prices increase. Interestingly, the relative desirability of medic is more sensitive to its impact on subsequent wheat crops than to the level of pasture production. We also found that modest increases in the prices of sheep products (especially milk) have a major impact on the economic performance of medic. These insights will allow improved focusing and targeting of future research and extension activities.     

An economic analysis of sheep flock structures for mixed enterprise Australian farm businesses

A strategic question facing many mixed enterprise broadacre farm businesses in Australia is, ‘What sheep flock size and structure is most profitable to complement the farm’s cropping enterprises?' This study answers this question for a typical large mixed enterprise farm business in a key production region of Australia. Whole‐farm bioeconomic modelling, combined with broad‐ranging sensitivity analysis, is used to examine the profitability of different sheep flock structures and sizes. We find the most profitable flock structure is to run Merino ewes and turn off finished Merino or first‐cross lambs. The profitable selection of these flocks is robust to commodity price variation but does require the farmer to give more attention to sheep management. The correct choice of flock structure greatly adds to farm profit. A farm based on cropping and a self‐replacing Merino flock using surplus ewes for first‐cross, meat lamb production earns 33 per cent more profit than a similar farm that runs a traditional self‐replacing Merino flock that emphasises wool production. Of far less importance than flock structure, as a source of additional profit, is to increase flock size or adjust cropping intensity.     

Herbicide resistance and the adoption of integrated weed management by Western Australian grain growers

Extension programs to encourage farmers to reduce reliance on herbicides by adopting integrated weed management (IWM) practices have met with limited success. Studies aiming to understand the factors that influence farmers' choices of integrated control practices have faced difficulties in variable specification, and have not achieved high explanatory power. Using data from grain growers in Western Australia, where herbicide resistance in major crop weeds is common, this study tests the applicability of a framework for the IWM adoption decision in which herbicide efficacy is assumed to be a potentially exhaustible resource. Farmers' perceptions of multiple techniques and other variables are aggregated using principal components, and used in logistic regressions to explain the intensity of use of IWM practices. Eighty‐six percent of growers were correctly classified according to use of multiple IWM practices. Herbicide resistance and expectations of the future availability of effective new herbicides were significant in explaining IWM adoption. IWM adoption and herbicide‐resistance management are shown to be information‐intensive and involving an intertemporal resource management decision.     

Determinants of herbicide use in rice production in the Philippines

This study identifies farm‐specific and market factors affecting the adoption of herbicides and the level of herbicide use by rice farmers in the Philippines. This requires the application of a modified version of Heckman's two‐step method to estimate a random‐effects double‐hurdle model for unbalanced panel data. The age of the farmer, household size, and irrigation use are significant determinants of the decision of farmers to adopt herbicides as an alternative to manual weeding, while economic variables such as the price of herbicides, total income, and access to credit determine the level of herbicide use. Determinants of both adoption and level are land ownership, farm area, and the method of crop establishment. These results are potentially relevant when designing policies to reduce excessive herbicide use or to encourage the adoption of alternative weed control methods such as integrated weed management.     

Economic management of anthelmintic resistance: model and application*

The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic (drench) resistance in gastrointestinal parasite populations is decreasing the profitability of the Australian sheep industry. Refugia management can delay its development by not exposing a proportion of the worm population to chemical control. A dynamic‐optimisation model is used to assess the economic value of refugia for management of the worm species Teladorsagia circumcincta and macrocyclic lactone drenches in an application to Western Australian sheep flocks. A low rate of refugia (2 per cent) is most profitable under standard circumstances because it slows the development of resistance, but also reduces the proportion of the flock not exposed to chemical control. Frequent drench application should remain the primary method of control. However, its efficacy should be preserved through refugia management, rather than greatly reducing treatment frequency.     

The external costs of pasture weed spread: an economic assessment of serrated tussock control

The external cost associated with the spread of pasture weeds such as serrated tussock (Nassella trichotoma) is an important economic problem. This problem is complicated in many parts of south‐eastern Australia where low rainfall and low soil fertility prevent the economic viability of control of this weed through pasture improvement. A consequence of serrated tussock spread in this region has been calls for increased public intervention in its control. However, because there have been no attempts to measure the external costs of serrated tussock spread, one of the major economic grounds on which this activity might be justified has not been quantified. The purpose of this paper is to provide this information. A stochastic simulation model is developed to determine the size of the external cost associated with the spread of serrated tussock and to evaluate the economic benefits of a range of control scenarios. It is concluded that on low rainfall‐low soil fertility country the socially optimal control option for serrated tussock is to retire land from agriculture and re‐vegetate it with trees.     

A stochastic dynamic programming framework for weed control decision making: an application to Avena fatua L.

This paper develops a stochastic multi-period decision model to analyse a continuous wheat cropping system infested by wild oats (Avena fatua L.), in southern Australia. The multi-period solutions is obtained by employing a dynamic programming model in conjunction with a bioeconomic simulation model. An empirically estimated dose response function is used to derive the optimal herbicide rate. Uncertainties due to environmental effects on the performance of herbicide and crop yields are modelled and optimal decision rules derived. The results indicate that substantial economic gains can be realised if herbicide dose decisions are taken by considering future profit effects of current decisions, as opposed to the more common approach of only considering the current-period effect.     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

AN ECONOMIC RESPONSE MODEL OF HERBICIDE APPLICATION FOR WEED CONTROL

A biologically realistic model of crop yield response to herbicide application is presented. It includes functions for weed mortality from herbicide application and yield loss due to surviving weeds. The optimal herbicide rate and two types of decision thresholds are derived theoretically and illustrated with empirical examples. Responses of the various decision criteria to changes in parameters are also examined theoretically and empirically. A multidimensional threshold for weeds based on weed density and weed-free yield is presented. The issue of farmers using other than officially recommended herbicide rates is discussed.     

Financial comparisons of under‐vine management systems in four South Australian vineyard districts*

Conventional viticultural practice in Australia and elsewhere involves removal of under‐vine vegetation using herbicides or cultivation. Concerns over the long‐term effects of herbicides on soil health, evolution of resistant weeds and possible impacts on human health motivate the search for alternative weed management options. Industry‐supported trials on commercial vineyards in four South Australian regions investigated standard practices of straw mulch and bare earth created with herbicides, compared to under‐vine cover crops, focusing on soil health attributes (soil carbon, soil microbiological processes, etc.) and grape yields in 2016 and 2017. Measured yields with the Control (herbicide) treatment were combined with published district grape prices and yields over the 12‐year (2006–2017) period, defining multivariate distributions of gross revenues ($/ha). Assuming all treatments produce grapes of equal quality and price as the Control, our results showed median per‐hectare gross margins greater than the Control in the Barossa district, lower than Control in Riverland, and mixed results in Langhorne Creek and Eden Valley. Multi‐year risk profiles, based on decadal whole‐farm (50 ha) cash flows for each treatment, were calculated using Monte Carlo analysis, based on historical yield and price distributions. These risk profiles showed the under‐vine treatments may result in major differences in long‐term vineyard financial viability.     

A discussion of the market and policy failures associated with the adoption of herbicide-tolerant crops

Weed control in the U.S. Midwest has become increasingly herbicide-centric due to the adoption of herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops in the 1990s. That integrated weed management (IWM) practices, including ecological and mechanical controls, are scarcely used is concerning. IWM would be a more sustainable form of farming for two reasons. First, it would reduce the negative health and environmental externalities associated with herbicide use. Second, it would reduce the selection pressure on weed populations and the development of weed resistance to some herbicides, thereby reducing the uncertainty of the long-term effectiveness of herbicidal weed control. In this context, we develop an economic framework to clarify the interplay among the different market failures that either contribute to the herbicidal ‘lock-in’ or make it problematic. We then analyse the evidence for and perceptions of these market failures based on twenty-four semi-structured interviews with farmers and experts conducted in 2017, as well as on discussions in the academic literature. To this end, we put into perspective the possible self-reinforcing effects in the adoption path of HT crops, such as increasing farm size, changes in farm equipment, increasing incentives for simplified crop rotations, and the loss of practical knowledge of IWM practices.     

Economic benefits of public investment in weed management: the case of vulpia in south-eastern Australia's temperate pasture areas

The present paper reports an economic evaluation of the long-term benefits to Australia of research by the Cooperative Research Centre for Weed Management Systems (CRC) into the improved management of vulpia , the major annual grass weed of temperate pastures in New South Wales and Victoria. Vulpia reduces livestock production by competition with more desirable pasture species, by the production of low quality feed at critical times of the grazing cycle, and by injury to animals. A 20-year stochastic benefit-cost analysis indicated that reducing the impacts of vulpia in these pastures produced a mean net present value of $A58.3 million and a mean benefit-cost ratio of 33:1. Temperate pasture zone wool producers would capture the largest shares of these benefits, Australian consumers would gain, but wool producers in the rest of Australia would suffer welfare losses from vulpia reductions in the temperate pasture zones.     

RESPONSES TO RISK IN WEED CONTROL DECISIONS UNDER EXPECTED PROFIT MAXIMISATION

Risk is an important characteristic of decisions about weed control in crops. In this paper it is shown that risk can affect weed control decisions even if the objective of the decision maker is to maximise expected profits: that is, even if the decision maker is ‘risk-neutral’ in the usual economic sense. This is shown for two decision frameworks: the optimal rate approach and the economic threshold approach. Empirical results are presented for control of ryegrass in wheat in Western Australia. It is found that, in general, risk reduces the optimal level of herbicide use under expected profit maximisation. Although individual sources of risk have a small impact on the optimal decision rules, combinations of uncertain variables can have a relatively large effect.     

Push—pull technology: a conservation agriculture approach for integrated management of insect pests,weeds and soil health in Africa

Push—pull technology (www.push-pull.net) is based on a novel cropping system developed by the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Rothamsted Research (UK) and national partners for integrated pest, weed and soil management in cereal—livestock farming systems. Stemborers are attracted to Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum), a trap plant (pull), and are repelled from the main cereal crop using a repellent legume intercrop (push), desmodium (Desmodium spp.). Desmodium root exudates effectively control the parasitic striga weed by causing abortive germination. Desmodium also improves soil fertility through nitrogen fixation, natural mulching, improved biomass and control of erosion. Both companion plants provide high value animal fodder, facilitating milk production and diversifying farmers' income sources. The technology is appropriate to smallholder mixed cropping systems in Africa. It effectively addresses major production constraints, increases maize yields from below 1 to 3.5t/ha, and is economical as it is based on locally available plants, not expensive external inputs. Adopted by over 30,000 farmers to date in East Africa, key factors in its further up-scaling include effective technology dissemination, adaptability of companion plants for climate resilience, capacity building and multi-stakeholder collaboration, integration with livestock husbandry, improvement in input accessibility and creation of a supportive policy framework.     

Pasture taxes and agricultural intensification in southern Mali

This study integrates biophysical simulation data with a farm household model of intertemporal optimization, to investigate changing crop-livestock management practices in the Sudano-Guinean zone of Mali. Over a 15-yr time horizon we find that free grazing on the commons remains more attractive to the representative household than adopting more labor-and capital-intensive confinement systems, but that a relatively low level of pasture tax (around US$3 per livestock unit per year) would be sufficient to induce intensification. Because confinement raises output, the net cost of the tax to the household is only about US$1 per unit per year. Imposing pasture taxes to induce intensification could raise community welfare, if the value of commons resources liberated by reduced grazing pressure exceeds that level.