Supply response of U.K. milk producers

Short‐run own‐price response elasticities are estimated from two samples of panel data for specialist dairy farms in the Northwest and Southwest of England. Although these farms are subject to milk marketing quotas, the free tradability of quotas enables them individually to adjust the output quite rapidly. Model specifications have been chosen to test the ability of panel data to directly reveal behavioral responses without the imposition of theoretical restrictions. Significantly, the two independent samples generate quite similar results, especially in terms of supply response measures. Stable and promising estimates are obtained with simultaneous models giving higher elasticities than single equation models.     

The efficiency of the Australian dairy processing industry

In this article we analyse trends in the economic performance of the dairy processing industry and evaluate the link between these trends and the deregulation of the industry. Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis to derive Malmquist total factor productivity estimates, we show that the industry exhibits a relatively high level of technical efficiency. Victoria, the major producing state, has been effectively on the frontier over the period studied. In recent years, the rapid expansion in capital investment that has attended the shift towards deregulation, has been accompanied by an apparent slowdown in both productivity growth and technical progress. There is also evidence of a convergence in productivity levels across states.     

A COMPARISON OF TOBIT AND OLS ESTIMATES OF JAPANESE PEANUT IMPORT DEMAND

A Tobit analysis is applied to estimate Japanese peanut imports under quota restrictions for the period 1973–1988, and to assess the bias when the presence of quota is ignored by using OLS estimation. The results show that biased estimates are obtained by using OLS in the presence of quota restrictions.     

Deregulation reforms,resource reallocation and aggregate productivity growth in the Australian dairy industry

Deregulation reforms in the Australian dairy industry had long‐lasting repercussions for Australian agriculture and the wider Australian economy. Using farm‐level data from 1979 to 2013, we investigate the effect of these reforms on productivity in the Australian dairy industry which arose from correcting resource misallocation between farms and across segregated state milk markets. Our results demonstrate that after the dairy reforms in 2000, relative market share shifted from less productive farms to more productive ones, and between farms using different production systems – generating additional productivity gains for the farm sector, but imposing some costs on downstream manufacturers by strengthening the seasonality of milk supply. Lessons from the Australian experience provide timely guidance for those countries exploring deregulation now or in the future to improve the industry‐level agricultural productivity growth through facilitating resource reallocation from less efficient to more efficient farms.     

Estimation of input-oriented technical efficiency using a nonhomogeneous stochastic production frontier model

Technical inefficiency can be modeled as either input‐oriented (IO) or output‐oriented (OO). However, in the estimation of parametric stochastic production frontier models which use maximum likelihood method only the OO measure is used. In this article we consider a simple nonhomogeneous production function and estimate it with both IO and OO specifications. A sample of 80 Spanish dairy data (1993–1998) is used to estimate both models. We consider one output (liters of milk) and four variable inputs (viz., number of cows, kilograms of concentrates, hectares of land, and labor [measured in man‐equivalent units]). We find that returns to scale (RTS) and technical efficiency results derived from these models are different because either estimated technologies are different, or they are evaluated at different points. Using a Monte Carlo analysis we show that if RTS is close to unity differences in the estimates of RTS and technical efficiency are smaller. This holds true for estimates of both RTS and technical efficiency.     

The story of deregulation in the dairy industry

The deregulation of dairy marketing that occurred on 1 July 2000 is a fascinating case study in microeconomic reform. The role of interacting industry and institutional features in the movement to deregulation is explained, with political realities being recognised. A key part of the deregulation bundle was an unprecedented "structural adjustment" package valued at about one and a half billion dollars (in 1998–1999). Questions are raised about the rationale for this package, the process of determining it and the means of funding it.     

Economies of scale in the Swedish sawmill industry

In this study, scale elasticity and optimal size of the Swedish sawmill industry is investigated. An input distance function is used to compute scale elasticity. The result of the study shows that the average scale elasticity is above 1, indicating existence of economies of scale in the industry. By comparing the size of the average input - output vectors with the inefficiency adjusted input vector and the output vector for scale efficient units, we could see that, in general, there are gains to be made by expansion. However, some units may gain from becoming smaller.     

Cost Efficiency for Alberta and Ontario Dairy Farms: An Interregional Comparison

In this study, two non-homothetic translog stochastic meta-frontier cost functions—with and without local concavity imposed—are estimated using a nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation procedure to compare the cost efficiency of Alberta and Ontario dairy farms for the period 1984–96. The resulting cost efficiency estimates are not very sensitive to whether or not curvature is imposed. In contrast, the properties of the cost and input demand functions (e.g., elasticities) are sensitive to imposition of local concavity during estimation. The implication is that if an inappropriate model that does not satisfy the properties required by the economic theory is used, the estimated input demand functions may not be reliable. Average cost efficiency for the pooled sample, with local concavity imposed, is approximately 89%. This suggests some potential for improved performance in the sector. The results also suggest that Ontario dairy farms may be more cost efficient than Alberta dairy farms, but the statistical evidence is inconclusive.     

Differences in agricultural returns: an empirical test of efficiency in factor input allocation using Vietnamese data

We study whether rural households in Vietnam allocate their factor inputs efficiently. Factor returns and technical rates of substitution (TRS) between production activities are compared. We estimate two translog production functions and conduct three tests: First we test the equality of bootstrapped returns. Second, we use a bootstrapped t -test comparing the equality of TRS. Finally, we derive a set of nonlinear restrictions on our estimated parameters, which, if held, would imply that we cannot reject efficiency. The article concentrates on the allocation of factors between the cultivation of the two most important agricultural crops—sugar cane and rice. We cannot reject the possibility that households are efficient in their input allocation. These results are consistent and stable over different estimation techniques and support the assumption of profit maximization.     

The effect of the Canada–China canola trade dispute on canola prices

In March 2019, China revoked the canola export licenses of two major Canadian exporters. We estimate the impact of these restrictions on Canadian canola prices. Using a vector error correction model to generate counterfactual prices, we estimate that between March 2019 and February 2020 canola prices were 3.6% lower than would have been expected in the absence of the import restrictions. We discuss the implications of our finding for both the ongoing negotiations between Canada and China and producer support in Canada.     

Pricing Sydney water*

The paper estimates an aggregate daily water demand for Sydney using rainfall, temperature, and price data from 2001 to 2005, and a dummy variable to account for reductions in demand following the introduction of water restrictions in October 2003. Analyses based on the estimated price elasticity, and also values one and two standard errors above and below this estimate, are used to model the effects of different pricing and water supply scenarios. The simulations indicate that without a fundamental change in water policy (pricing and supply) Sydney faces the possibility of critical water shortages in the short- to medium-term should there be a continuation of low rainfall events.     

Price floors and technical inefficiency in India's sugar processing industry

In India, cane is processed into sugar by cooperatives, public enterprises, and private (for‐profit) firms. The Indian government sets a unique floor price for each processor that is increasing in the firm's effectiveness in converting cane into sugar. The floor price binds for public and private firms but not for cooperatives, which rebate profits to members. We argue that this price floor policy creates a disincentive for private and public firms to be technically efficient in converting cane to sugar. In support of this hypothesis an analysis of 593 Indian sugar factories from 1992 to 2007 reveals statistically significant differences in technical efficiency, with cooperatives being the most efficient and public firms least efficient. We estimate welfare losses due to the technical inefficiency attributable to the price‐floor policy and argue that it can be eliminated by enacting policy to base price floors upon quality of the cane input received by a factory.     

Comparing Open-Ended Choice Experiments and Experimental Auctions: An Application to Golden Rice

We use two experimental valuation methods to estimate consumer demand for genetically modified golden rice. The first is an open-ended choice experiment (OECE) where participants name the quantities of golden rice and conventional rice demanded at each of several price combinations, one of which will be randomly chosen as binding. This allows us to estimate market demand by aggregating demand across participants. This estimate of market demand also allows us to estimate own-price elasticity and consumer surplus for golden rice. Comparing willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from the OECE with those from a uniform-price auction, we find that OECE WTP estimates exhibit less affiliation across rounds, and the effects of positive and negative information under the OECE are more consistent with prior expectations and existing studies. We also find that, while auction WTP estimates more than double across five rounds, OECE WTP estimates are stable across rounds and are always roughly equal to those from the final auction round.     

Consistent Estimation of a Censored Demand System and Welfare Analysis: The 2012 VAT Reform in Spain

This paper analyses the effects that the 2012 VAT reform in Spain had on households’ welfare, focusing on a major expenditure group: food and non‐alcoholic beverages. Households’ demands are modeled as a two‐stage Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which is then estimated by means of a consistent two‐step estimator introduced in Tauchmann ( 2010 ) and not previously used in studies of this type. This procedure allows consistent imposition of the traditional parameter restrictions that utility maximisation requires in the context of a censored model. Our results show that the welfare loss and the increment in the tax bill increase with income. We also show that expenditure on food and non‐alcoholic beverages grows less than proportionately with income. Consequently, households with lower income experience a greater welfare loss relative to their income levels. In short, the 2012 VAT reform in Spain, focusing on this expenditure group, can be considered as regressive.     

GAINS FROM DEREGULATION? AN EMPIRICAL TEST FOR EFFICIENCY GAINS IN THE NORWEGIAN FISH FARMING INDUSTRY

A cost function is used to quantify potential sources of gains from deregulation of the Norwegian salmon farming industry, an industry that has been heavily regulated in order to achieve a regional dispersion of production and profits along the entire coastline. It now seems to be widely recognised that the regulations have led to cost inefficiencies. A region-augmented cost function with data from 282 fish farms for 1988 is used to estimate regional productivity differences, i.e. differences in the total cost of producing salmon in one region compared to another. It is found that the potential gains from deregulation may be substantial.     

Market Emergence and Transition: Arbitrage, Transaction Costs, and Autarky in China's Grain Markets

Using trimonthly Chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995, we estimate a parity-bounds model of interregional trade for four subperiods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition. For each period, we estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders, the transaction costs between location pairs, and the likelihood that regions do not trade. Trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time. Infrastructure bottlenecks, managerial incentive reforms, and production specialization policies, all were likely important factors affecting market performance.     

Technical efficiency of sawnwood production in Ondo and Osun states,Nigeria

This study quantified technical efficiency and the determinants of observed technical inefficiency of sawmills in Nigeria. A two-stage sampling technique was used to select 170 sawmillers in Ondo and Osun states, while questionnaire was used to obtain data from them between October and December 2003. The stochastic frontier approach was used to estimate technical efficiency of both small- and medium-scale sawmills, while the ordinary least square (OLS) regression analysis was used to estimate the determinants of the observed technical inefficiency. Empirical results indicate that medium-scale sawmillers are more efficient than their small-scale counterparts. However, both groups of sawmillers in Nigeria have potentials to expand their output.     

The efficiency of the Environmental Management Charge in the Cairns management area of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park*

Using data from a survey of more than 1000 domestic visitors to the Northern section of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) – predominantly those travelling on live‐aboard dive boats – this research investigates the (tax) efficiency of the Environmental Management Charge (EMC). The travel cost method (with a zero truncated negative binomial specification) is used to estimate the price elasticity of demand, and those estimates are used to estimate the deadweight losses, the losses in visitor numbers that could be ‘blamed’ on the EMC and the associated taxation revenues for different types of trips. The welfare loss for each dollar of revenue raised from the EMC was estimated at less than one per cent for each type of trip considered. The analysis therefore suggests that, for these types of trips in this part of the reef at least, the EMC is a very efficient tax – particularly when compared with other taxes. This has important implications beyond the GBR, particularly in countries who struggle to find sufficient funds to properly manage world heritage areas: taxes such as these may be a relatively efficient and equitable means of collecting such revenues.     

FORECASTING MILK OUTPUT IN ENGLAND AND WALES*

This paper evaluates the ablility of an autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) model to forecast monthly milk output before and after the imposition of quotas in April 1984. In the post quota period the standard arima model is modified to a ‘discontinuity’ model allowing the quota to be represented explicitly. It is concluded that for a medium term forecast this is preferable to the standard arima model, whilst for one period ahead forecasts the models are equally good.