Measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China: pattern and drivers over the period of 1978‐2016

The Chinese agricultural sector has experienced a substantial increase in total output since dramatic reforms were introduced in 1978. This paper uses the index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for China’s crop and livestock industries, based on the gross output model from 1978 to 2016. We construct production accounts for the industries using input‐output relationships for the 26 main agricultural commodities and commodity groups, which account for over 90 per cent of the total agricultural inputs and outputs. The results show that China’s agricultural TFP grew at a rate of approximately 2.4 per cent a year before 2009, which is comparable to the main OECD countries and is double the world average. TFP growth accounts for approximately 40 per cent of output growth, suggesting that input growth was the main driver of output growth in the past. However, average productivity growth slowed down after 2009 though it has gradually recovered since 2012. The slowdown reflects the emerging challenges to existing farm production practices in Chinese agriculture, suggesting the need for further institutional reform.     

Exploring the impact of R&D and climate change on agricultural productivity growth: the case of Western Australia*

This article empirically examines the impact of R&D and climate change on the Western Australian Agricultural sector using standard time series econometrics. Based on historical data for the period of 1977–2005, the empirical results show that both R&D and climate change matter for long‐run productivity growth. The long‐run elasticity of total factor productivity (TFP) with respect to R&D expenditure is 0.497, while that of climate change is 0.506. There is a unidirectional causality running from R&D expenditure to TFP growth in both the short run and long run. Further, the variance decomposition and impulse response function confirm that a significant portion of output and productivity growth beyond the sample period is explained by R&D expenditure. These results justify the increase in R&D investment in the deteriorating climatic condition in the agricultural sector to improve the long‐run prospects of productivity growth.     

农地规模化对农业科研生产率效应的影响研究

文章以农地流转为研究视角,基于中国1988~2012年31个省域面板数据,综合运用固定效应模型与动态门限回归模型,检验农业科技投入对农业生产效率的驱动作用。固定效应模型的分析结果表明,科技投入对农业生产效率提升的效果,受到农地规模的制约;随后的动态面板门限模型显示,以户均农地规模表示的农地流转值存在两个显著的门限。当户均农地规模低于第一个门限值时,科技投入对农业生产效率的影响微弱。随着农地流转的推进,科技促农的效果逐步增强。但当农地面积跨越第二个门限,科技促农系数又降低。因此,在中国农业科技投入有限的常态约束下,应以农地流转政策为契机,协调好农地流转与科技投入的关系而非一味加大科技投入,优化农业科研的区域空间布局,增强科技对中国农业的驱动作用。同时也应采取措施避免农地流转过快带来的负面效应。     

Evaluating spatial and temporal variation in agricultural output elasticities in Turkey

This study evaluates spatial variation in the relationship between agricultural output and input use across Turkey. The potential impact of the national agricultural policy reform introduced in 2001 on the spatial variation in agricultural output elasticities across the country was explored. By applying a spatial production function to the province‐level data in 2000 and 2007, spatial heterogeneity in the variance of provincial total factor productivity and the input factor‐output elasticities was identified across the country. Results show that the disparities in agricultural activities and geographic conditions affected return from input factors. Empirical findings from a spatial spillover model also suggest that changes in the input factor‐output elasticities varied significantly across Turkey between 2000 and 2007, after the policy reform. Results suggest that future policy reform that recognizes regional comparative advantage through understanding the geographic heterogeneity of the agricultural sector is important for enhancing Turkey's agricultural output.     

Research and productivity in Thai agriculture

This paper examines the impact that publicly funded agricultural research has on productivity in crop production within Thailand. It tests empirically the two hypotheses that, first, publicly funded research and development (R&D) in crop production is a significant determinant of total factor productivity (TFP) in the crop sector and, second, that its social rate of return is high. The statistical analysis applies error correction methods to national level time series data for Thailand, covering the period 1970–2006. Emphasis is given to public research in crop production, where most publicly funded agricultural R&D has occurred. The role of international research spillovers and other possible determinants of TFP are also taken into account. The results demonstrate that public investment in research has a positive and significant impact on TFP. International research spillovers have also contributed to TFP. The results support the finding of earlier studies that returns on public research investment have been high. This result holds even after controlling for possible sources of upward biases present in most such studies, due to the omission of alternative determinants of measured TFP. The findings raise a concern over declining public expenditure on crop research, in Thailand and many other developing countries.     

Productivity growth and the returns from public investment in R&D in Australian broadacre agriculture

Investment in R&D has long been regarded as an important source of productivity growth in Australian agriculture. Perhaps because research lags are long, current investment in R&D is monitored closely. Investment in R&D has been flat while productivity growth has remained strong, relative both to other sectors of the Australian economy and to the agricultural sectors of other countries. Such productivity growth, at a time when the decline in terms of trade facing Australian farmers has slowed, may have enhanced the competitiveness of Australian agriculture. The econometric results presented here suggest no evidence of a decline in the returns from research from the 15 to 40 per cent per annum range estimated by Mullen and Cox. In fact the marginal impact of research increases with research over the range of investment levels experienced from 1953 to 2000, a finding which lends support to the view that there is underinvestment in agricultural research. These results were obtained from econometric models which maintain strong assumptions about how investments in research and extension translate into changes in TFP. Hence some caution in interpreting the results is warranted.     

Knowledge diffusion and agricultural development

Low agricultural productivity remains the primary source of poverty in the developing regions and yet little is known about the influence on agricultural productivity of domestic and international accumulated R&D knowledge and the channels through which this knowledge is transmitted internationally. Following a large scientific literature, this article argues that R&D and R&D knowledge spillover are ecozone‐specific and, therefore, are transmitted internationally through ecozones, where ecozones are the broadest biogeographic division of the earth's land surface. Using data for a panel of 88 countries, it is shown that international knowledge spillovers are ecozone‐specific and have been an important contributing factor behind the marked widening of the income gap between developed and developing countries since 1983.     

Geography of plant breeding systems,agroclimatic similarity,and agricultural productivity: evidence from Nigeria

Agroclimatic conditions and agricultural research and development (R&D) including plant breeding activities by the public sector are some of the most significant exogenous factors in the agricultural sector. However, the effects of the interactions between these two sets of factors on agricultural productivity have not been studied widely in developing countries, despite potentially important implications on their plant breeding strategies. Using three‐wave panel data of agricultural households in Nigeria and spatial data on various agroclimatic parameters, we show that agricultural productivity and technical efficiency at the agricultural household level is significantly positively affected by the similarity of agroclimatic conditions between locations where agricultural households are located, and locations where major plant breeding institutes are located. These results hold after controlling for various socioeconomic characteristics of these households, including their physical distances to the breeding institutes. Findings are robust across parametric and nonparametric specifications such as Data Envelopment Method, and after addressing potential endogeneity of agroclimatic similarity and agricultural inputs variables in the production function. Productivity effects due to the locations of plant breeding institutes and resulting agroclimatic similarity can be potentially sizable given Nigeria's past productivity growth speed.     

Is there a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth in South America?

This article estimates agricultural productivity growth in 10 South American countries in 1969–2009 with the objective of investigating if the slowdown being measured in other countries is present in the region. Results show that productivity growth accounts for half of the three‐fold increase in agricultural output during this period and that performance is sensitive to R&D investments in the sector. The slowdown found for the 1990s to 2000s in the U.S. and some European economies does not seem to be present yet in South America. The region's total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate increased steadily from 1.07% during the 1970s to 2.29% during the 2000s. Given lags in adoption and the adaptive nature of innovations in these economies, we have yet to see the potential effects in South American agriculture of decreases in R&D in advanced economies.     

中国锑行业发展现状及高质量发展建议

目前,中国锑矿储量和锑产品产量在世界上都居主导地位,然而中国的锑资源在过去的20年间被过度开发,易采易选的储量快速消耗,可供开发利用的锑资源按照当前的生产规模仅可维持十余年的生产。中国锑行业长期以来以低附加值的初级产品生产和加工为主,在高附加值的应用端缺乏研发投入,导致了锑被低估贱卖,中国锑行业只有制定长期规划,在进行资源占有的同时加大冶炼工艺和应用端的研发力度,才能实现行业的高质量发展。     

The impact of the 1999 CAP reforms on the efficiency of the COP sector in Spain

The cereal, oilseeds, and protein crop sector (COP) occupies a prominent position within the European Union's agricultural sector. Within Spain, the COP sector accounts for almost a third of total Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund expenses, and half of the utilized agricultural area (UAA). The COP sector is not only relevant because of its physical and economic magnitude, but also because of the political attention it receives. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms that occurred during the 1990s paid special attention to this sector. This article aims to determine the impacts of Agenda 2000 on a sample of Spanish COP farmers' production decisions by using an output-oriented stochastic distance function. The distance function allows for an assessment of the reform-motivated changes on total output, input used, input composition, and crop mix. It also permits an assessment of the impacts of the reform on farms' technical efficiency.
Results show that the reform has shifted the production frontier inward and changed output composition in favor of voluntary set-aside land. With respect to input composition, Agenda 2000 induced a decrease in land, fertilizers, pesticides, and other inputs in favor of labor. In addition, Agenda 2000 has had a negative impact on technical efficiency.     

Exploring the widening food gap: an international perspective

Using data for a long panel of 90 developed and developing countries, this article explores the effects of research and development (R&D) and fixed capital stock on agricultural land productivity over the period 1961–2012. Instruments are used for R&D to deal with feedback effects and measurement errors. The results show very high social returns to investment in R&D and to fixed capital stock, suggesting that increasing investment in these factors are promising ways of arresting the increasing food prices due to increasing demand for animal protein, population growth, desertification, salinization, soil erosion, climate change, and decreasing growth in land productivity.     

The transformation of the Indian agricultural input industry: has it increased agricultural R&D?

Indian agricultural input industries have gone through a major transformation in the last 40 years. State owned firms grew during the Green Revolution and then stagnated or declined. Indian corporations that were protected from foreign competition are now exporters of agricultural tractors and pesticides. Foreign multinational corporations are rapidly increasing their role in the seed, pesticide, and tractor industries. Entry by large Indian firms and multinationals has increased competition in the input industries. Private agribusiness R&D in India grew from $23 million in 1985 to $250 million in 2009 in 2005 US dollars. This is the same time period as a transformation in the agricultural input industry, rapid growth in demand for agricultural inputs, breakthroughs in information technology and biotechnology, and changes in intellectual property rights. An econometric model was used to test whether the transformation of agricultural input industry was a major factor in the growth of R&D expenditure or not. This article analyzes a unique, firm level sales and R&D data set from the seed, pesticide, tractor, and fertilizer industries in 2000–2009. The estimated model indicates that agribusiness firms' R&D expenditures from 2000 to 2009 were positively related to variables associated with industry transformation such as firm size, ownership by multinationals, and declining industry concentration. The model also indicates that strengthening patent policy as well as growth in the size of research‐intensive industries like the seed industry contributed to the growth of agribusiness R&D in India.     

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency in China in recent 40 years

Chinese agricultural output has been multiple under the intensive input of production factors since the reform and opening-up. Such a growth pattern that realizes high output through high input results in increasingly prominent environmental pollution problems. Considering the provincial panel data in China during 1978–2017 as the research units and taking agriculture in broad sense as the study object, the agricultural eco-efficiency (AEE) was measured by the Super-SBM Model, and the influencing factors were screened out from agricultural basic condition, agricultural industrial structure, agricultural development potential and agricultural input strength. The findings indicated that agricultural expected output and unexpected output were synchronously increased, while the change of input factors was totally different and gradually transferred to materiality from resources. In 1978–2017, AEE was increased to 0.713 from 0.405, with an increase of about 76%. And it approximately underwent four stages, including free development, reform promotion, market regulation and policy incentives. Under the resource restraint and policy incentives, AEE showed that Northeast, East and South China were higher than the national average level. North and Central China basically fitted for the national average level, and Southwest and Northwest China were lower than the national average level. Also, it was successively present in some spatial characteristics including polarization, differentiation, agglomeration and reconstruction on the provincial scale. The magnitude and direction of influencing factors indicated that the introduction of subsidy policies for compound fertilizers, an increase of farmers’ incomes, optimization of agricultural plantation structure, and maintenance of stable agricultural product prices could effectively improve AEE.     

龙头企业、专利投入与农业产业高质量发展研究

[目的]中共十九大报告提出实施乡村振兴战略,对中国粮食产业高质量发展和农业供给侧结构性改革有了进一步要求。小麦作为中国主要粮食作物之一,小麦产业是中国农业产业的代表性产业之一,其发展对中国粮食安全具有重要意义。以小麦产业为例,探究农业科技创新中龙头企业、专利投入与中国小麦产业发展的关系。[方法]文章基于2015—2018年的短面板数据,利用耦合协调度模型测算中国31省(市、自治区)的小麦产质量耦合协调度,解析中国小麦产业耦合协调发展的实际情况,并运用工具变量Tobit方法实证分析中国小麦产质量耦合协调度的影响因素。[结果]中国小麦产质量耦合协调度总体偏低。龙头企业数量、农业基础设施对小麦产质量耦合协调度产生显著的正向影响,地区小麦专利数量在龙头企业对小麦产业的影响中具有正向调节作用。[结论](1)中国小麦产质量耦合协调度总体上还处于较低水平;(2)在小麦产质量耦合协调度回归模型中,粮食播种面积是一个有效的工具变量,它在很大程度上决定了龙头企业选址;(3)小麦专利数量对小麦产质量耦合协调具有直接促进作用,但是这种作用不显著;(4)地区小麦专利的调节效应增强了龙头企业与小麦产质量耦合协调度的影响。     

Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?

A slowdown in the rate of agricultural productivity growth is thought by many observers to be contributing to the recent rise in agricultural prices. In this article I decompose sources of output growth in global agriculture into aggregate input and total factor productivity (TFP) components and examine whether productivity growth slowed substantially in the years leading up to the recent rise in commodity prices. Contrary to widely held perceptions, I find no evidence of a general slowdown in sector‐wide agricultural TFP, at least through 2006. If anything, the growth rate in agricultural TFP accelerated in recent decades. However, the results do show a slowdown in the growth of agricultural investment. Accelerating TFP growth largely offset decelerating input growth to keep the real output of global agriculture growing at about 2% per year since the 1960s. Regionally, however, agricultural productivity performance has been uneven. These findings have important implications for the appropriate supply‐side policy response to the current agricultural price crisis.     

The impact of grain self‐sufficiency regime on regional welfare and agricultural productivity in China

The nineties’ agricultural reforms in China that were aimed at deregulating the agricultural market eventually resulted in a huge drop in agricultural production and a high rate of inflation in agricultural input prices; this apparently motivated the government to introduce the grain self‐sufficiency regime in 1998. We examine how and to what extent this reform affected the productivity and welfare of grain farmers in China at the regional level. We find that the price regulations that destroyed the incentive to exert more effort adversely affected the growth in agricultural productivity but contributed to the growth in farmers’ welfare. Although the price regulations resulted in short‐term improvement in welfare across all the regions, in the long run such regulations can potentially result in larger drop in agricultural production because of its negative impact on the incentives to produce more.     

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D-led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate-driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D-led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D-led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.     

Public agricultural R&D over the past half century: an emerging new world order

Recent trends in farm productivity and food prices raise concerns about whether the era of global agricultural abundance is over. Agricultural R&D is a crucial determinant of agricultural productivity and production, and therefore food prices and poverty. In this article, we present entirely new evidence on investments in public agricultural R&D worldwide as an indicator of the prospects for agricultural productivity growth over the coming decades. The agricultural R&D world is changing, and in ways that will definitely affect future global patterns of poverty, hunger, and other outcomes. The overall picture is one in which the middle‐income countries are growing in relative importance as producers of agricultural innovations through investments in R&D, and have consequently better prospects as producers of agricultural products.     

要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率空间影响效应分解研究

目的 通过对要素市场扭曲下的农业全要素生产率的系统分析,以期为提升农业全要素生产率以及要素市场改革进程中的中国农业可持续发展提供参考。方法 文章基于资本、劳动力、土地等要素市场严重扭曲的事实,利用1997—2018年中国28个省（ 市、自治区）面板数据,通过构建空间计量模型检验要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率的空间影响及其溢出效应。结果 中国资本市场、劳动力市场、土地等要素市场扭曲度比较高,同时呈现显著地区差异;中国农业全要素生产率增长以技术进步驱动为主,大多数省份的技术效率不高,同时呈现出东部地区高于中西部地区的区域不平衡特点;要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率的影响为负,资本市场、劳动力市场、土地等要素市场扭曲在一定程度上阻碍农业全要素生产率的提升;要素市场扭曲对全要素生产率具有一定的空间溢出效应,也在一定程度抑制了全要素生产率增长。结论 考虑要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率影响的空间分析,更能客观反映当前不断深化的农业农村改革发展所引发的地区差距,应充分重视要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率的空间溢出效应,通过要素市场化改革,持续加大涉农政策调整,不断加大对农业农村生产经营的金融资源投入,逐步实现农业全要素生产率的全面提升。