The components of the bid‐ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market

This article examines whether USDA announcements and commodity index fund rolling activity have an impact on liquidity costs, measured by the bid‐ask spread. Using Huang and Stoll's (1997) model of liquidity costs, we estimate whether changes to liquidity costs are driven by its adverse selection, inventory, or order processing components. Commodity index fund roll activity reduces the asymmetric information cost component of liquidity cost due to an increased proportion of noninformation‐based trading, but the inventory cost component increases as (mostly long only) commodity index funds sell their nearby positions and buy the first deferred contract—raising liquidity providers’ risk of building a position. The sum of these two effects is that liquidity costs remain low during index fund roll periods, averaging one “tick” (0.25 cents). On USDA report release days, we find that informed traders raise the asymmetric information component of liquidity costs in the first hour after release, but the inventory cost component is reduced due to the increase in volume. Similar to index fund roll activity, liquidity costs on USDA report release days remain low, averaging one “tick”. Our findings that liquidity costs are minimally changed during USDA report releases and commodity index fund roll periods is consistent with other recent research on liquidity costs, but we show that what drives liquidity costs differs substantially depending on the circumstances surrounding daily trading.     

The impact of commodity price shocks among regional economies of a developing country

Volatile commodity prices have become commonplace in the world economy. Although is widely accepted that commodity‐rich countries are affected by this phenomenon, information about how commodity price shocks impacts their regional economies is scarce. This work analyses how shocks in copper prices impact the economies of the major copper‐producing regions in a developing country, such as Chile. To achieve this goal, a two‐step method is implemented. First, we estimate long‐term copper prices using the Wets and Rios approach (2015) and these estimates are then contrasted with those forecast by the Chilean public advisory committee. Second, a general equilibrium model is implemented to simulate the effects of both expansive and restrictive copper price cycles within major producing regions in Chile. Our results show that the proposed approach yields more homogeneous price projections than those made by the Chilean Government, which, in turn, are very close to variations in response to negative shocks. The price simulations confirm that price cycles affect the savings of government and business, which directly dampens regional production, mainly via investment, capital mobilisation and diversification of production. Because of this, fiscal revenues generated by copper sales act as a trade cycle term multiplier in regional economies. Overall, within copper‐producing regions, we suggest implementing long‐term policies to improve profit distribution efficiency.     

Monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices: evidence from structural and factor‐augmented VAR analyses

Fluctuation in commodity prices is a significant and timely issue to be studied. This study is to examine the impact of monetary policy and other macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. The major contributions of this study are twofold. First, unlike other studies that use indexes, this study analyzes the commodities individually, affording the inclusion of commodity‐specific fundamentals such as the level of inventory—an important determinant of commodity price—in a structural VAR framework. Second, it exploits a rich data set of agricultural commodity prices which includes commodities that are usually overlooked in the literature, and extracts a common factor using the dynamic factor model to understand the extent of comovement of the prices and to gauge the extent to which macroeconomic shocks drive the “comovement” in a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework. The findings show that monetary policy, global economic conditions, and the U.S. dollar exchange rates play an important role in the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices.     

Mathematical optimisation of drainage and economic land use for target water and salt yields*

Land managers in upper catchments are being asked to make expensive changes in land use, such as by planting trees, to attain environmental service targets, including reduced salt loads in rivers, to meet needs of downstream towns, farms and natural habitats. End‐of‐valley targets for salt loads have sometimes been set without a quantitative model of cause and effect regarding impacts on water yields, economic efficiency or distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders. This paper presents a method for calculating a ‘menu’ of technically feasible options for changes from current to future mean water yields and salt loads from upstream catchments having local groundwater flow systems, and the land‐use changes to attain each of these options at minimum cost. It sets the economic stage for upstream landholders to negotiate with downstream parties future water‐yield and salt‐load targets, on the basis of what it will cost to supply these ecosystem services.     

Mitigation potential and costs for global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions1

Agricultural activities are a substantial contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for about 58% of the world's anthropogenic non‐carbon dioxide GHG emissions and 14% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions, and agriculture is often viewed as a potential source of relatively low‐cost emissions reductions. We estimate the costs of GHG mitigation for 36 world agricultural regions for the 2000–2020 period, taking into account net GHG reductions, yield effects, livestock productivity effects, commodity prices, labor requirements, and capital costs where appropriate. For croplands and rice cultivation, we use biophysical, process‐based models (DAYCENT and DNDC) to capture the net GHG and yield effects of baseline and mitigation scenarios for different world regions. For the livestock sector, we use information from the literature on key mitigation options and apply the mitigation options to emission baselines compiled by EPA.     

Collateral‐free lending with risk‐contingent credit for agricultural development: indemnifying loans against pulse crop price risk in India

This article addresses the problem of collateral‐free lending in the context of agricultural development. We investigate a viable alternative to traditional credit products through the development of risk‐contingent credit for operating loans and farm mortgages and apply the concept to agricultural loans for pulse crops in India. Risk‐contingent credit mitigates business and financial risk by reducing debt obligations depending on the embedded commodity options whose payoffs are linked with commodity price fluctuations. We analyze daily commodity spot prices for pulse crops in India and show how risk‐contingent structured financial instruments can be priced in practice.     

Co‐movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co‐movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co‐movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid‐2008 to the end of 2009 co‐movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co‐movement during the sampled period.     

The optimal diffusion of mitigation options for environmental management

A new direction for evaluating pollution policy is proposed, focused on optimal investment pathways for mitigation capital. The approach allows practitioners to draw directly from key principles in the diffusion literature. A two‐stage, policy‐development framework is introduced. The first stage consists of empirical modelling to assess optimal diffusion pathways for diverse mitigation options. The second involves determining the relative strengths of different policy actions to address diffusion rates or maximum levels of adoption that diverge from optimal levels. The advantages of this new approach are demonstrated in an agri‐environmental context, concerning the off‐site impacts of intensive agriculture on water quality. The viewpoint provided by the novel approach establishes the importance of adoptability – alongside the traditional measures of abatement effectiveness and cost – for mitigation practices in policy assessment. The key role that durable mitigation capital plays in addressing dynamic externalities is demonstrated, alongside the importance of structured diffusion cascades for alternate mitigation options.     

CAP MTR versus environmentally targeted agricultural policy in marginal arable areas: impact analysis combining simulation and survey data

On June 2003 the final version of the Common Agricultural Policy Mid‐Term Review (CAP MTR) was published. The driving forces of this policy change include inter alia the compliance with World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations' requirements, improvement of social support for agricultural policy, adjustment to budget constraints and adaptation of agricultural practices to environmental requirements. This article reviews how this policy performs in marginal areas regarding one of those objectives: the provision of environmental outputs related to agricultural activity. As an alternative to this reform, a policy based on agri‐environmental measures designed to maximize environmental outputs, is proposed. Both options are evaluated from a cost‐effectiveness point of view. Data from a farm survey and a positive mathematical programming model for a cereal steppes agro‐system in Spain are combined in order to simulate the effects of this reform and our alternative instrument on several environmental indicators. Results show that in marginal areas, where land abandonment is a clear threat, more environmental output can be achieved for the same cost, while maintaining, if not increasing, the levels of achievement for the other goals.     

Reformulation and assessment of the inventory approach to urban growth boundaries

Based on the theoretical framework, in this article we demonstrate how Decision Network can be used to formulate the inventory approach to urban growth boundaries (UGBs) as an application of the planning tool to a general case. In particular, in the inventory approach expansions of UGBs are considered as decision situations, land consumptions as problems, and order sizes of UGBs as solutions. We compare the time- and event-driven systems of the inventory control problem based on the decision network framework. The former in the framework is considered as making single, independent decisions in time, whereas the latter as making multiple, linked decisions in time. Our numerical example shows that the event-driven system is more effective than the time-driven system in that the former incurs less total cost than the former in the UGBs context. The implication is that making multiple, linked decisions, as manifested by Decision Network, would yield more benefits, such as lowering the total cost, to the planner than making these decisions independently.     

A markup over average cost pricing rule for meat and poultry in the United States

This paper tests the hypothesis that meat and poultry wholesalers choose their inventory levels together with wholesale price so as to maximize profit made over the sales time of their stock. The behavioral assumption predicts that markup over average cost will match the inverse of the price elasticity of the sales time of inventory. Price elasticity of inventory sales time is estimated for beef, pork and poultry accounting for the simultaneity between these pricing decisions by adopting a systems approach. The estimated range for the inverse of these elasticities includes all the markups applied over the sample range of the time series.     

Demand for area crop insurance among litchi producers in northern Vietnam

This study examines the need for crop insurance for litchi production in northern Vietnam and how farmers might participate in such a program. Hypothetical insurance programs were developed which proposed all‐risk coverage based on area yields. This coverage was offered to farmers to determine both their interest in the program and how insurance features and farmer characteristics affected their decision to buy insurance. Farmers were also surveyed regarding their production practices, price and yield expectations, and financial and personal characteristics. Even before considering other program costs and government budget constraints, there is not a strong case for establishing a crop insurance program here. Results indicate that while farmer participation would be significant, crop insurance is not needed to achieve policy goals like raising farmer income or guaranteeing subsistence levels of income. Crop insurance is not needed to promote litchi production, which is already expanding rapidly due to its high profitability relative to other farm enterprises. In their choice of coverages, farmers preferred higher yield guarantee levels and lower indemnity prices. Estimated premiums were quite low when expressed as a percent of expected revenue, and farmers were not responsive to changes in premiums. Econometric analysis indicated that high income farmers were more likely to participate, but other farmer characteristics seemed to matter little. Anecdotal evidence suggested that farmers believed the expected area yields used to set insurance coverage levels were too low. Because litchi productivity varies significantly by tree age and the litchi planted area is expanding rapidly, determining appropriate values for expected area yields and insurance coverage levels appeared to be the biggest challenge in program design. It is hypothesized that additional farmer education about the relationship between area and farm yields and other aspects of area insurance could improve such a program's operation. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.     

Information-rich wheat markets in the early days of COVID-19

This paper uses the information implicit in commodity futures and options prices to infer market beliefs about the impact of early-stages COVID-19 on commodity market fundamentals. The particular commodity examined is soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and the timeframe is early February to late March 2020. The analysis highlights various adjustments in the cash and futures price of SRW wheat in light of surging short-run demand from consumer hoarding of staple food products, and a weakening long-run market from growing wheat stocks and an emerging global recession. This split is causing the forward curve to flatten and basis levels to invert. The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts. Similarly, changes in the skewness of the option's volatility smile illustrate a shift in traders’ perception about risk in the right versus left tail of the price distribution.     

Production Risks and Food Security under Alternative Technology Choices in Malawi: Application of a Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression

Employing nationally representative data, we investigate the impact of Sustainable Intensification Practices (SIPs) on farm households’ food security, downside risk and the cost of risk in Malawi. The analysis relies on a flexible moment‐based specification of a stochastic production function in a multinomial endogenous switching regression framework to correct for the selection bias stemming both from observed and unobserved heterogeneity. A quantile moment approach is used to estimate the cost of risk. After controlling for the effects of unobserved heterogeneity and several observable variables on maize production and downside risk functions, estimation results show that the adoption of SIPs increases food security and reduces downside risk exposure and the cost of risk. We estimate greater food security and larger reduction in downside risk from simultaneous adoption of both crop diversification (maize–legume intercropping and rotations) and minimum tillage, suggesting that there are complementary benefits from these practices. We find most of the cost of risk comes from exposure to downside risk. Our findings imply that in dealing with production risks development agents should encourage the adoption of agronomic and resource‐management practices along with other risk mitigation and food security improving strategies.     

Modeling regime‐dependent agricultural commodity price volatilities

In stark contrast to financial markets, relatively little attention has been given to modeling agricultural commodity price volatility. In recent years, numerous methodologies with various strengths have been proposed for modeling price volatility in financial markets. We propose using a mixture of normals with unique GARCH processes in each component for modeling agricultural commodity prices. While a normal mixture model is quite flexible and allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis, its biggest strength is that each component can be viewed as a different market regime and thus estimated parameters are more readily interpreted. We apply the proposed model to ten different agricultural commodity weekly cash prices. Both in‐sample fit and out‐of‐sample forecasting tests confirm that the two‐state NM‐GARCH approach performs better than the traditional normal GARCH model. A significant and state‐dependent inverse leverage effect is detected only for pork in the regime where the price is expected to drop, indicating the volatility in this regime tends to increase more following a realized price rise than a realized price drop.     

Soil,Striga, or subsidies? Determinants of maize productivity in northern Ghana

High yield gaps persist in sub‐Saharan Africa and increased fertilizer use is considered among the crucial measures to increase productivity. Despite high government investments, particularly in fertilizer subsidy programs (FSPs), overwhelming evidence has revealed their inefficiency. This study employs a multidisciplinary approach to identify the determinants of low maize yields in the Guinea savanna zone of Ghana. We conducted a socioeconomic household survey and analyzed plot‐specific soil samples. Econometric models were estimated based on both socioeconomic and soil variables. The results show that a common parasitic weed, Striga, and labile soil structure have significant effects on yield in the study region. Plot sizes were recorded both from farmers’ direct elicitation and using GPS devices. Considerable discrepancies were detected between self‐reported and GPS‐measured plot sizes. Fertilizer samples from randomly selected agro‐input shops were analyzed to control for adulterated or fake inputs. The measured nutrient contents of the samples reflected the composition indicated on the package labels. Findings underline the need of site‐specific data collection, supported by laboratory‐based soil test results, to efficiently address low productivity. Although there are no signs of fertilizer adulteration, governance challenges persist in targeting, timing, and elite capture in the distribution system of the subsidy program. The study shows that the FSP has not been an effective standalone measure. Rather, the government needs to invest in capacity building and extension services to address the site‐specific problems through comprehensive soil fertility management techniques and weed control. Promoting soil carbon management, minimum mechanical stress, crop rotation, and permanent soil cover should be further investigated as options for the region.     

Irrigation technology adoption and its implication for water conservation in the Texas High Plains: a real options approach

Water shortage has been a significant issue for several decades in the Texas High Plains. Agriculture has been identified as the main activity contributing to this shortage. To address this issue, many efforts have been focused on the possible adoption of sophisticated irrigation systems with high levels of water application efficiency. In this study, the entry and exit thresholds for the low‐energy precision application (LEPA) system are analyzed simultaneously in cotton farming in the Texas High Plains using a real options approach. The results show that the LEPA system is profitable only when cotton price is set above $1.59/kg. The exit (entry) threshold is consistently low (high) over a range of values for parameter changes including investment cost, exit cost, variable cost, risk‐adjusted discount rate, and volatility rate, so it is unlikely that farmers with irrigation systems in place would leave them easily. This implies that to attain the goal of saving water, Lubbock County needs to focus on convincing current farmers to replace old irrigation systems with new ones.     

The Role of Index Trading in Price Formation in the Grains and Oilseeds Markets

We use both Granger‐causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger‐causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV‐based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.     

Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior

Despite extensive study, researchers continue to search for consistent and reliable measures of risk preferences to explain market behavior. We find that a measure, combining experiments rooted in expected utility theory and measures derived from surveys, explains spot and contractual sales, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than its underlying components. Survey‐based measures are generally more significant indicators of marketing choices, but experimental measures reveal how risk attitudes vary over a range of probable outcomes, which is important in light of increased commodity price volatility. Given recently identified limitations on the applicability of expected utility theory, we suggest that researchers include survey methods to obtain low‐cost supplemental measures.     

Effects of alternative elicitation formats in discrete choice experiments*

An elicitation format prevalently applied in discrete choice experiments (DCE) is to offer each respondent a sequence of choice tasks containing more than two choice options. However, empirical evidence indicates that repeated choice tasks influence choice outcomes through order effects. The study reported in this article employs a split sample approach based on field surveys to expand the research on effects of repeated‐binary DCE elicitation formats. A single‐binary elicitation format is used as the baseline. Our results indicate that choice outcomes may vary across the single‐binary and repeated‐binary elicitation formats. The choice between the two elicitation formats may imply a trade‐off between decreased choice precision in the single‐binary and order effects that may be explained by strategic misrepresentation of preferences, cost uncertainty effects and reference effects in the repeated‐binary elicitation format.