Measurement errors in agricultural data and their implications on marginal returns to modern agricultural inputs

The low uptake of modern agricultural technologies in sub-Saharan African countries has encouraged researchers to revisit the returns to (or profitability of) these agricultural inputs. A related strand of literature is exploring the allocative efficiency of these factors of production in African agriculture. However, all these studies rely on self-reported agricultural data, which are prone to nonclassical measurement errors, the errors in these data are correlated with the true values of variables of interest. In this article we investigate the implication of measurement errors in self-reported agricultural input and production data on marginal returns to these modern agricultural inputs. We consider a generic two-sided measurement error problem where both production and inputs can be measured with error, and these errors can be correlated. We employ both self-reported and objective measures of production and plot size to compute output elasticities under these alternative measurement scenarios. We find that using self-reported production and plot size overestimates output elasticities and hence marginal returns to modern agricultural inputs (including chemical fertilizer and improved seed). These results are noteworthy in terms of informing conventional technology diffusion strategies as well as in view of revisiting existing presumptions about the profitability of modern agricultural inputs.     

Mismeasurement and efficiency estimates: Evidence from smallholder survey data in Africa

Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterised by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterisation relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We show theoretically that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders' technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85% for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders' actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artefact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders' production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders' production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies.     

Is Input Mix Inefficiency Neglected in Agriculture? A Case Study of Pig‐based Farming Systems in England and Wales

The principal concern of this article is the relative importance of input mix as a source of inefficiency. Emphasis in efficiency analysis studies in agricultural production has historically focused on technical inefficiency as a single concept until methodological advances enabled it to be decomposed into pure technical inefficiency and scale inefficiency. But, this advance was insufficient to identify what we consider to be the major source of inefficiency in agricultural production, namely mix inefficiency. We consider that farm enterprises may be particularly susceptible to input mix inefficiency because of restrictions on movement around the frontier isoquant; delays in the adoption of improved technologies embodied in new vintages of production processes; risk as a source of friction in input allocation decisions; and the potential for inconsistency in simultaneously attempting to reach points of allocative efficiency and mix efficiency in input use. We use non‐parametric methods to calculate a Hicks–Moorsteen productivity index using panel data for a sample of specialised pig producers in England and Wales. This index is then decomposed into measures of technology, technical efficiency, scale efficiency and mix efficiency for an input orientation. Results of the analysis show that the estimated mean mix inefficiency (0.736) was substantially larger than mean technical inefficiency (0.975) and mean scale inefficiency (0.957) over the study period.     

Estimation of Profit Functions When Profit is Not Maximum

This paper deals with derivation and implications of profit functions when profit is not maximum due to the presence of either technical inefficiency or allocative inefficiency, or both. We show that input demand and output supply, elasticities, and returns to scale are, in general, affected by these inefficiencies. We also show that the overall profit efficiency is not necessarily the product of technical and allocative efficiencies, meaning that technical and allocative inefficiencies are not necessarily independent. Estimation techniques are developed for both cross-sectional and panel data models. Working of the model is illustrated using a panel of 60 salmon farms.     

农业技术培训、经营规模对农业生产效率的影响——以水稻栽培技术为例

目的 提高农业生产效率是推进农业现代化建设的重要指标。方法 文章基于江西省512份微观调研数据测算出农户的农业生产效率,运用Tobit模型、PSM模型以及分位数回归模型分析了农业技术培训、经营规模对农业生产效率的影响。结果 研究结果表明,农业技术培训对农业生产效率的提高具有显著促进作用,且参与农业技术培训可使农户的农业生产效率提高9.32%;不同经营规模农户参与农业技术培训对农业生产效率的提升效应存在差异,规模户提升效应为28.18%,显著高于小农户的6.97%;农地经营规模对农户农业生产效率具有显著影响,并呈现出“倒U型”关系;农业技术培训、经营规模对不同分位点的农户农业生产效率均具有显著正向作用,并有递增趋势,同时对高效率组的促进作用要明显高于低效率组的农户。结论 政府应积极拓宽农业技术推广渠道,加快转变技术推广方式,同时鼓励适度规模经营,进一步提高农户农业生产效率。     

Estimations of Consumer Demand for Local Beef

In this article, we explore the role of local production as an attribute in consumer preferences for beef and attempt to quantify consumers’ purchasing behavior with respect to changes in price. We develop and employ a survey instrument using a randomly selected sample of consumers in Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. Using data from the survey, we use conjoint analysis to estimate own-price elasticities of demand for beef produced using different production technologies and at different distances from purchase site to place of origin. Results show that consumer demand for beef and beef products is highly elastic, and the implications of this for producers and marketers are explored.     

Environmental Production Factors and Efficiency of Smallholder Agricultural Households: Using Non‐parametric Conditional Frontier Methods

External environmental factors play a significant role in the agricultural production of smallholder farmers. This is especially the case in developing countries where production is less technologically intensive. These factors are mainly exogenous and affect both the farmers’ input choices and the final output levels. However, previous studies of technical efficiency of smallholder agricultural production either ignore these factors or assume separability between environmental factors and input choice, which is often not the case in developing counties. Using data on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, we relax this separability assumption and investigate the importance of external environmental factors in farmers’ performance and efficiency variation across regions. The empirical analysis is based on a non‐parametric conditional order‐m estimation method that relaxes some of the traditional strong assumptions in efficiency modeling and, more importantly, the separability between environmental factors and the choice of physical inputs. Using data from four major agricultural regions of Ethiopia, we show the extent that environmental factors contribute to the technical efficiency and the significance of environmental factors in farmers’ performance.     

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

We adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri-food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state-level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost-adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.     

农业生产性服务对玉米生产技术效率的影响研究——基于微观数据的实证分析

[目的]探究农业生产性服务对玉米生产技术效率的影响,引导农业生产性服务精准化发展,有助于维稳国家粮食安全,尽早实现农业现代化和乡村振兴发展目标。[方法]文章利用对黑龙江省13市47村298个玉米种植户的微观数据,构建随机前沿生产函数模型对玉米生产技术效率进行测算,并在此基础上构建技术无效率模型,实证检验农业生产性服务对玉米生产技术效率是否产生重要影响。[结果]目前玉米生产技术效率平均值在75%左右,有较大提升空间;农资供应服务、农业技术服务、农业信息服务、农机作业服务均能够显著提高玉米生产技术效率,但影响程度存在一定差异,其中农业信息服务对玉米生产技术效率的作用效果最为明显,其次是农机作业服务、农业技术服务和农资供应服务;性别、年龄、受教育程度、是否担任村干部、是否有农地流转、玉米收入占比对提高玉米生产技术效率有显著正向影响,是否兼业对提高玉米生产技术效率有显著负向影响。[结论]提高玉米生产技术效率要从完善农业生产性服务体系、建立农村信息服务平台、提高农户认知水平等方面入手。     

Sustainable agricultural intensification in forest frontier areas

The Lore Lindu region in Indonesia—as in many forest frontier areas in Southeast Asia—has experienced rapid deforestation due to agricultural expansion in the uplands, at the forest margins. This has resulted in aggravated problems of erosion and water availability, threatening agricultural productivity growth. At the same time, technical progress is promoting agricultural intensification in the lowlands. In this article, we examine how improved technologies for paddy rice cultivation in the lowlands have affected agricultural expansion and deforestation in the uplands. The question of a “forest‐saving” or “forest‐clearing” effect related to technical innovation is important from a sustainable development perspective and remains a controversial issue in the literature. We address this question for the Lore Lindu region with an empirical model in which expansion in the lowlands and the uplands is estimated simultaneously. We use data from an extensive village survey conducted in the region, combined with GIS data. To guide the empirical analysis, we develop a theoretical framework based on a Chayanov‐type agricultural household model. The model analyzes farmers' land allocation decisions, taking into account the lowland–upland dichotomy in the agricultural sector. The empirical findings, corroborated by the analytically derived results, show how technical progress for lowland production affects land use at the forest margins and how these effects depend on the factor‐intensity of the technology. The findings imply specific rural development policies for sustainable agricultural intensification in forest frontier areas.     

农牧户兼业、规模异质与生产技术效率变化*——基于5省452户细毛羊养殖户的实证研究

［目的］利用5省452户细毛羊养殖户调研数据，分析规模异质下农牧户兼业化对细毛羊生产技术效率的影响。［方法］文章采用SBM模型和Tobit模型分别测算了农牧户细毛羊生产技术效率及不同规模下兼业化对生产技术效率的影响。［结果］（1）在其他条件不变的情况下，兼业化会显著促进农牧户生产技术效率的提升，且非农兼业程度越强对细毛羊生产技术效率的正向影响作用越大。（2）分规模来看，农业兼业形式对散养户、中规模和大规模养殖户生产技术效率具有负向影响，对小规模养殖户生产技术效率具有正向影响，但影响均不显著； 由于非农兼业形式在散养户和大规模养殖户中所带来的“劳动力流失效应”与“收入投资效应”的强度的不同，对散养户生产技术效率具有显著的负向影响，对大规模养殖户生产技术效率具有显著的正向影响。（3）受教育程度、养殖年限、养殖方式、是否接受技术培训均对养殖户总体生产技术效率具有显著的正向影响，年龄变量对养殖户总体生产技术效率具有显著的负向影响。［结论］应全面推进细毛羊标准化规模养殖进程，加大细毛羊养殖技术培训的开展与推广，加强对养殖专业合作社的法律宣传和政策引导，完善国家层面的畜牧养殖的扶持政策。     

中国农业用水效率及影响因素——基于1997—2006年省区面板数据的SFA分析

本文利用1997-2006年的省级面板数据,采用随机前沿生产函数(SFA)方法测算了中国农业生产的技术效率与灌溉用水效率,并利用Tobit模型对灌溉用水效率的影响因素进行了分析.结果表明,中国农业用水效率远低于生产技术效率,平均农业用水效率仅为0.49,这意味着在其他投入保持不变的情况下,达到目前的产量可减少一半的用水量;而且农业用水效率与生产技术效率相比地区间差异更大;西北地区是全国最具节水潜力的区域.进一步的实证分析表明,减少水密集型作物的种植、新建和改造农田水利设施、调整农业用水供给系统、加强农业水资源需求管理、采取有利于增加农民节水积极性的经济措施,对农业用水效率的提高均有积极作用.     

A CALIBRATION METHOD FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC PRODUCTION MODELS

A method for calibrating agricultural production models is presented. The data requirements are those for a linear programming model with the addition of elasticities of substitution. Using these data, production models with a CES production function can be simply and automatically calibrated using small computers. The resulting models are shown to satisfy the standard microeconomic conditions. When used for analysis of policy changes, the CES models are able to respond smoothly to changes in prices or constraints. Prior estimates of elasticities of substitution, supply or demand can be incorporated in the models.     

农户借贷对粮食生产技术效率的影响研究——基于2012—2018年3省3 255份农户面板数据

目的 基于生产要素配置视角，研究农户借贷对粮食生产技术效率的作用路径，并进行理论分析。方法 文章利用2012—2018年中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所全国固定观察点的3 255份农户面板数据，首先采用随机前沿模型测算农户粮食生产技术效率；其次构建固定效应模型，实证分析农户借贷对粮食生产技术效率的影响方向及作用强度，并利用IV-2SLS方法处理农户借贷对粮食生产技术效率影响的内生性问题，并进行稳定性检验和异质性分析。结果 农户借贷对粮食生产技术效率有显著促进作用，存在借贷行为的农户粮食生产技术效率比未存在借贷行为的农户高0.017。除此之外，农户党员身份、农业技术培训、家庭非农劳动力人数以及加入合作社对粮食生产技术效率都存在明显的促进作用；而家庭劳动力人数对粮食生产技术效率有显著抑制作用。结论 农户利用借贷资金改善生产要素配置从而提高粮食生产技术效率。     

Small U.S. dairy farms: can they compete?

The U.S. dairy industry is undergoing rapid structural change, evolving from a structure including many small farmers in the Upper Midwest and Northeast to one that includes very large farms in new production regions. Small farms are struggling to retain competitiveness via improved management and low‐input systems. Using data from USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey, we determine the extent of U.S. conventional and pasture‐based milk production during 2003–2007, and estimate net returns, scale efficiency, and technical efficiency associated with the systems across different operation sizes. We compare the financial performance of small conventional and pasture‐based producers with one another and with large‐scale producers. A stochastic production frontier is used to analyze performance over the period for conventional and pasture technologies identified using a binomial logit model. Large conventional farms generally outperformed smaller farms using most economic measures—technical efficiency, various profitability measures, and returns to scale.     

土地细碎化、多样化种植与农业生产技术效率--基于随机前沿生产函数和中介效应模型的实证研究

本文基于安徽省农村固定观察点2013—2017年农户层面的面板数据,使用效率时变型随机前沿生产函数模型对农业生产技术效率进行测算,并利用中介效应模型分析了土地细碎化对农业生产技术效率的直接效应以及通过农户多样化种植行为传导的中介效应。研究结果显示:(1)样本农户的平均生产技术效率为0.386%,效率损失较为严重;(2)土地细碎化对农业生产技术效率存在"倒U"型的直接效应;(3)多样化种植在土地细碎化对农业生产技术效率的影响中发挥了非线性的中介效应,土地细碎化与农户多样化种植行为存在"倒U"型关系,多样化种植程度与农业生产技术效率存在"U"型关系。在我国农业劳动力短缺和老龄化压力日趋严重的背景下,为提高农业生产效率,应从促进土地相对集中和支持开展专业化生产两个方面加大政策支持力度。     

农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率的影响

目的 在中国土地规模经营和服务规模经营并重推进粮食作物效率提升背景下,进一步探讨农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率提升效应的规模异质性具有现实意义。方法 文章使用随机前沿分析和门限回归分析,利用2018年全国6省区小麦种植户经营情况,对农机社会化服务影响小麦生产技术效率及影响效果规模异质性进行研究。结果 农机社会化服务的采用有助于提升小麦生产技术效率;农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率存在门限效应,当农户经营规模低于门限值（0.293hm²）时,农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率不具有显著影响,跨越门限值后,农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率则具有正向影响效应。基于农户适度规模经营的情况下,农机社会化服务对中等规模（0.293hm²＜Area＜3.333hm²）农户的小麦生产技术效率具有显著正向影响。结论 农机社会化服务有助于提升中国小麦种植户技术效率,但受限于农户规模,推进农机社会化服务发展的同时仍然需要推动土地的适度规模经营。     

乡村振兴战略下农业现代化发展效率评价——基于超效率DEA与综合熵值法的联合分析

国家乡村振兴战略提出,要想实现农业现代化必须综合提高农业生产、农业经营和农业服务的发展效率。本文基于2000—2018年中国30个省份的相关农业数据,从农业的生产、经营、服务三维角度利用超效率DEA模型进行效率测度,并使用综合熵值法对各省份农业现代化发展进行评价。结果发现,各省份农业生产、经营、服务效率不具备三维一致性,生产效率高的地区例如东北地区,其经营和服务效率较低;从农业现代化发展效率来看,传统的平原地区例如华北平原和长江中游平原,并非农业现代化发展水平超前的地区;配套环境好、机械化程度高且精耕细作的地区在考虑市场经营和资源技术服务效率后,其综合农业现代化水平较高。     

Rural–urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal

This paper explores the relationship between agricultural productivity and rural-urban migration by developing an econometric model and applying it to the case of Senegal. Country level data is used covering the years 1961-1996. Policy implications of reducing rural-urban migration using agricultural output elasticities are developed. The findings support the hypothesis that rural-urban migration is a positive function of the ratio of urban per capita income to rural per capita income. Moreover, the results support a policy aimed at reducing rural-urban migration flows through increases in per capita earnings derived from increased agricultural investment.