What is the Value of Agricultural Economics Research?

The output of agricultural economics research is information, much of it aimed at designing or improving institutions. Bayesian decision theory and economic surplus analysis have been suggested as possible approaches to evaluate that information. This article takes a critical look at the strengths and weaknesses of combining those approaches for empirical evaluation of agricultural economics research. It presents three case studies, utilizing prior and posterior probabilities elicited from key decision makers. Direct application of the probabilities to a simple set of states and actions is best suited to situations involving a single policy-making center, or a consensus decision-making process.     

农业经济学与数学

从学科科学化进展的角度,讨论了农业经济学日益数学语言化的必然趋势。一方面论述了农业经济学依赖数学成为常规科学的历程,另一方面展望了这个学科继续运用数学发展自己的前景。讨论的基本出发点是现代农业经济学与数学的本质联系;焦点是农业经济学基础理论的科学化;主要结论是:以基础理论形式化为标志的农业经济学的科学化,必将更加依赖数学,更加有效地运用数学,才能更加有效地揭示规律,发展本学科的深层智慧。     

Is native timber tree intercropping an economically feasible alternative for smallholder farmers in the Philippines?

Integration of trees on upland farms in the Philippines has been slower than expected and desirable from an environmental perspective. Our economic and risk analysis points to current policies as part of the problem. The study compares three domesticated indigenous timber trees (Shorea contorta V., Pterocarpus indicus J., and Vitex parviflora W.) intercropped with maize against a benchmark of the widely used exotic mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla K.). We used a biophysical simulation model (WaNuLCAS 3.1) to represent interaction between trees and crops for a fundamental level of water, nutrient and light capture as the basis for production functions. External conditions affecting systems profitability were accounted for in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Elements of risk were introduced through Monte Carlo simulation. Study results revealed that from a farmer’s perspective intercropping systems provide similar (within an uncertainty range of + or ? 10%) returns to monocropping scenarios. When net subsidies and taxes are accounted for, social profitability evaluations favour tree intercropping at high tree densities. The net effect of the current bias in price policies towards food production therefore refrains farmers from making decisions to integrate trees on farms; a decision that is actually in the national interest on economic grounds, even without consideration of positive environmental effects.     

鄂尔多斯市农地资源调查及效益评价

[目的]文章分析了2007—2016年10年来鄂尔多斯市农地数量变化情况,同时从经济、社会、生态3个维度入手,对此期间内鄂尔多斯市农地资源利用效益进行测度。[方法]建立鄂尔多斯市农地利用效益指标体系,采用极差法、熵值法确定指标权重,进而对经济效益、社会效益、生态效益及综合效益进行测算。[结果]鄂尔多斯市农地主要包括耕地、园地、林地和牧草地4种类型,占比分别为2.97%、16.23%、43.81%和31.86%;2007—2016年鄂尔多斯市农地数量逐年上升,以园地增长面积最大,耕地增长面积最小,形成以草地、园地为主,林地、耕地为辅的分布特征;10年来鄂尔多斯市经济效益、社会效益、生态效益呈上升趋势,经济效益、社会效益上升幅度大于生态效益,且经济效益、社会效益优于生态效益;除社会效益外,鄂尔多斯市农地利用综合效益、经济效益、生态效益于2012年皆处于\"低谷期\",但综合效益整体处于上升态势,4种效益上升斜率逐渐趋于一致,农地利用效益步入稳定上升阶段。[结论]鄂尔多斯市农地利用效率逐渐趋于协调稳定上升状态。     

兼顾城市规划因素的城镇土地定级技术路线探讨——以武汉市商业用地定级为例

研究目的:基于国家行业规程对城镇土地定级因素因子及土地定级技术路线进行再认识,并提出一种兼顾城市规划影响的城镇土地定级技术途径。研究方法:采用多因素综合评价法建立地价潜力模型,揭示城市规划对土地质量的综合影响,基于模型测算结果提炼成城市规划因素因子,纳入城镇土地定级因素因子体系后参与多因素综合评价确定土地级别。研究结果:城市规划通过协调城市空间布局和综合部署各项城市建设对土地价值的空间分布及变化趋势产生了重要影响;兼顾城市规划因素的土地定级技术路线不仅能克服传统土地定级的局限,而且对现有国家规程的技术框架进行了扩展。研究结论:武汉市商业用地定级的实证研究结果验证了技术路线的有效性。     

地理信息系统在农业决策服务中的应用

[目的]近年来,GIS技术逐渐渗透到农业各环节,在助力提高农业生产效率和经营效益等方面,发挥出越来越重要的作用,为农业现代化发展带来了生机和活力,文章将介绍地理信息系统技术在农业部农业决策服务系统建设过程中的应用,与农业系统从业者分享我们的GIS应用经验。[方法]在构建我国农业决策服务系统过程中,根据我国农业产业特征,选择以Eclipes为开发环境,以Oracle 11gR2为数据库,以SuperMapGIS-T ServerV2.0为服务发布管理平台,以国家测绘局提供的空间地理数据为基础,综合运用WebGIS、REST架构等先进技术,把全国农业生产、经营、流通、管理范围内的地理信息进行分类编制,建成一个功能齐全、应用方便的农业决策服务系统,从而实现了把GIS技术在农业部管理决策层面上的应用。[结果]通过深入调研、走访和分析,迄今历时2年时间,在设计并搭建农业部电子政务内网应用支撑平台的基础上,经研究策划,初步建成了农业部决策服务系统。[结论]GIS技术在农业决策服务中有巨大的应用潜力,不仅可为农业决策服务系统提供空间分析和可视化方法,而且通过该决策服务系统的运行,还能够实现农业部门提供日常监管和应急决策所迫切需要的空间信息。因此,GIS技术在农业决策服务中的应用前景广阔。GIS技术在农业决策服务系统建设过程中的应用,尤其是系统建设思路和架构,对继续探索GIS技术在农业各业务领域中的应用和农业信息平台研发,都将有较大的借鉴作用。     

Searching an Ex Situ Collection of Wheat Genetic Resources

A theoretical model is developed and applied to the search for disease and pest resistance in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources, employing actual data on frequency distributions, disease losses, and search costs. Experiments developed from case studies clarify several misperceptions about the value of gene banks and their utilization by breeders. The observation that wheat breeders use gene banks rarely does not imply that marginal accessions have low value. High costs of transferring genes with conventional breeding techniques mean that it may be efficient to store certain categories of genetic resources (such as landraces) 'unused' for many years.     

农用地产能核算工作中的基础数据调查与处理方法研究

研究目的：研究产能核算基础数据的调查和处理方法。研究方法：区试产量替代法,分层抽样法,年鉴调查法,残差分析法和空间滑动平均法。研究结果：（1）理论产能、可实现产能和实际产能因样本本身特点不同,样本的调查方法也各不相同;（2）通过残差分析法和空间滑动平均法处理之后,数据的整体和局部异常值被剔除或修正,数据质量得以保证。研究结论：本文可为今后其他省份开展工作提供借鉴。     

Analysing Dutch dairy farmer behaviour towards the provision of public goods: The added value of an economic simulation experiment

The objective of this paper is to examine the value of experiments for assessing the impact of the proposed Common Agricultural Policy of 2013 on farm income and farming strategies. We focus specifically on the impact of an alternative direct payment system based on a flat rate and green payments. We show the added value of an economic simulation experiment to existing economic micro- and sector modeling analysis when analyzing farmer behavior. It is shown that the suitability of and rewards for the provision of green services play a significant role in their uptake by farmers and the support for them. These results are useful in implementing a revised direct payments system in the Netherlands for the future.     

Agricultural sustainability of fadama farming systems in northern Nigeria: the case of Karshi and Baddeggi

Nigeria is endowed with underground and surface water reserves, rich pastures and favourable agroecological conditions in the country's low-lying plains with alluvial deposits, popularly referred to as fadama lands. The 3,000,000ha of fertile soils with residual moisture offer attractive opportunities for the arable farmers to grow both season and off-season high-value crops. The potential and importance of fadama agriculture for food production and economic development is crucial, given rising food prices, climatic changes, environmental risks associated with ‘modern’ agriculture, modelled farming systems and population growth. Fadama areas are therefore of critical importance to the survival and economic development of millions of rural dwellers. This research surveys and analyses the sustainability of fadama farming systems in semi-arid northern Nigeria. Findings reveal a delicate interaction and negotiation across the formal and informal boundaries where traditional agricultural practices, based on an understanding of the particular physical reality and exploitation of natural synergies, are combined with inputs typical of conventional agriculture. African agriculture thus stands poised at a crossroads: whether to abandon tradition in favour of entirely ‘modern’ methods and export markets as often advocated in certain circles or to depend on time-tested indigenous knowledge systems and grassroots-defined development vision which combines popular livelihoods with respect for nature's systems.     

全国农业生态指数遥感监测评价方法研究

该研究借助遥感与GIS技术,考虑影响农业生态系统的关键因素,选取植被指数、地表温度、降水距平以及自然灾害等主要指标,建立了我国农业生态评价的指标体系。根据研究所提出的指标体系以及评价方法,开展了2006年3月上旬到10月上旬的全国农业生态综合评价,并详细分析了每个月我国各地区的生态状况,结果表明我国2006年农业生态总体状况比较好,只有个别地区比较差。该研究所提出的基于遥感与GIS的农业生态指数评价方法,可以及时有效地获取全国范围内农业生态系统状况,而且可以考虑长期业务化运行,它将能为全面掌握我国农业生产状况,保障我国农业平稳发展有非常重要的意义。     

危机矿山接替资源找矿工作成果服务利用构想

近年来,危机矿山接替资源找矿工作取得了丰硕成果。为使危机矿山接替资源找矿工作成果及时向社会提供服务利用,应主要做好以下几方面工作：一是加大宣传力度;二是加强传统窗口服务;三是积极开发专题服务产品;四是利用信息化和网络化技术,设计开发找矿工作成果专题网络服务平台。在提供服务的同时,应重点解决好涉密信息处理问题和地质资料及时汇交的问题。