Dynamic input demand functions and resource adjustment for US agriculture: state evidence

The paper presents an econometric model of dynamic agricultural input demand functions that include research based technical change and autoregressive disturbances and fits the model to annual data lor a set of stale aggregates pooled over 1950-1982. The methodological approach is one of developing a theoretical foundation for a dynamic input demand system and accepting state aggreage behavior as approximated by nonlinear adjustment costs and long-term profit maximization. Although other studies have largely ignored autocorrelation m dynamic input demand systems, the results show shorter adjustment lags with autocorrelation than without. Dynamic input demand own-price elasticities for the six input groups are inelastic, ami the demand functions possess significant cross-price and research effects.     

The dynamics of household beef consumption in Cameroon

Recent changes in economic conditions have introduced notable changes in household beef consumption patterns in Cameroon. While consumers are concerned about the short- and long-run effects of these factors on beef consumption habits, policy makers are more worried about the appropriate period necessary for households to make complete adjustments in consumption since this information is vital for planning production. Static and dynamic demand frameworks involving the Nerlovian partial adjustment (PA) model are used to capture the dynamic nature of beef consumption parameters. Maximum likelihood estimates of the PA model reveal that the conditioning variables explain 79% of the variation in beef consumption. Income, previous consumption, own-price and prices of fish and pork are jointly important in explaining beef consumption habits. Beef is a normal good with pork and fish as substitutes and chicken as a complement. Long-run price and income elasticities are greater than but not significantly different from their short-run values, suggesting that adjustment in consumption is fast with about 80% of the difference between actual and ‘desired’ consumption being completed in about 2 years. Projections show that demand for beef will reach 109620 t by the year 2000. giving an incremental total and per capita demand of 31 730 tons and 1.84 kg, respectively.     

FARM ADJUSTMENT AND THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT*

The problem of low income farms in Australia is examined in a dynamic context of overall farm adjustment. It is suggested that the pace of agricultural adjustment has been and is too slow, in the light of current and prospective market and cost trends. Consideration is given to both the case for, and the possibilities of, government action and the relationship of on?-farm adjustment to the adjustment needs of the economic and the social infrastructure on the agricultural sector.     

Consumer Welfare and the Loss Induced by Withholding Information: The Case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.     

Farm‐specific Adjustment Costs in Dutch Pig Farming

This paper develops a dynamic model of investment under rational expectations, assuming farm‐specific production technologies and adjustment cost structures. The model distinguishes regimes of negative, zero and positive investments and maintains that it is optimal for a farmer not to invest for a range of shadow prices, depending on thresholds for positive and negative investments. The model is applied to a rotating sample of Dutch pig farms over the period 1980–1996. Farm‐specific parameters of the adjustment cost function and production technology are obtained using Generalised Maximum Entropy estimation. Cluster analysis using the farm‐specific adjustment cost parameters indicates that five groups of farms with distinct adjustment cost structures can be identified. A tobit regression analysis is used to explain the impact of different socio‐economic factors on the size of the threshold between positive and negative investments.     

Quadratic Differential Demand Systems and the Retail Demand for Pork in Great Britain

The primary objective of this paper is to derive a general synthetic quadratic (rank 3) differential demand system which nests within it a range of testable differential demand models including the quadratic AIDS, CBS, Rotterdam and NBR systems. A model selection test procedure is also outlined. These differential systems are then applied and tested to analyse the monthly retail demand for cuts of pork in Great Britain over the period 1989–2000. The empirical results suggest that a quadratic differential AIDS model is most appropriate for the pork demand system studied, but that the need for inclusion of quadratic income/expenditure terms is not universal for every cut within the demand system. Quadratic expenditure effects were appropriate for pork chops and leg roasts, but log linear expenditure effects were adequate for bellies, shoulders and loin roasts. Roasting cuts were expenditure and own price elastic, with pork loins, chops and bellies all expenditure and own price inelastic.     

Dynamic Area Allocation and Economies of Scale and Scope

This article applies the adjustment cost framework to the case of area allocation by simultaneously determining the levels of input demand and output supply. Dynamic measures of economies of scale and scope are defined for output‐specific areas. An application to a rotating sample of Dutch cash crops reveals that farmers have a strong incentive for specialisation, but that large adjustment costs for area allocation resulting in small adjustments toward the optimal level prevent them from doing so.     

A Cost Function Approach to Dynamic Duality: An Application to the US Cigarette Manufacturing Industry

The dynamic duality econometric approach with the case of multiple outputs is applied to the US cigarette manufacturing industry to test for the presence of adjustment costs and quasifixed inputs with regard to stocks of capital and tobacco. Capital and tobacco stocks are found to be quasi-fixed inputs and the empirical results indicate that there are significant adjustment costs associated with adjusting these inputs. Short- and long-run own- and cross-price elasticities of factor demands are estimated for domestic and imported tobaccoes, materials, tobacco stocks, and capital. Output demand elasticities are also estimated. The two outputs, cigarettes produced for export and for the US market, are examined for equality of marginal costs. No evidence of differences in marginal costs was found. There is evidence that government restrictions on advertising have negative effects on output demand.     

PPP水利工程供水价格机制研究

日渐突出的水资源供需不平衡,已成为中国经济社会可持续发展的重要制约因素。水价的杠杆作用是调节政府供水经营者用水户三方利益的重要手段,制定科学合理的水价有利于鼓励社会资本参与水利基础设施的建设,促进水资源优化配置和节约用水、保障用水户用水需求。在通过PPP物有所值评定测算的前提下,既充分考虑用水户的支付意愿和承受能力,又考虑供水经营者的成本补偿和合理收益,探究目前中国PPP模式下水利工程的水价核算情况。目前中国PPP模式下供水价格机制有所创新,但动态调整机制尚有不足。价格听证制度不断完善但公众参与程度仍需加强。     

SOLUTION OF SPATIAL TRADING SYSTEMS WITH CONCAVE CUBIC PROGRAMMING*

Standard spatial equilibrium activity analysis models, as developed by Takayama and Judge (1971), are based on linear supply and demand functions and fixed input-output coefficients. Such models are suitable for multiple market level trading systems where the fixed input-output coefficients are appropriate. A primal-dual price form of these models is developed in which the assumption of constant per unit costs of transformation is relaxed. In the case when the average cost curves of transformation are quadratic in nature the problem becomes one that will be termed cubic programming (that is, a cubic objective function and linear and/or quadratic constraints) which is solved in a concave region of the solution space. In the paper, the formulation of a simplified spatial equilibrium model with quadratic average costs of transformation is presented and solved. A discussion of possible applications of such a model is also presented.     

The Dynamics of Individuals' Fat Consumption

Consumers are increasingly aware of the link between their lifestyle choices and the risk of noncommunicable diseases. A dynamic approach incorporating this linkage in food demand is developed, where consumers maximize utility over time by choosing fat intake to control their cumulative fat level. The resulting dynamic indirect utility function and household data on meat, fish, and dairy consumption are used to estimate a censored demand system. Results show that consumers consciously adjust, but not instantaneously, their cumulative fat level. Highly educated households have a faster rate of adjustment of cumulative fat. When cumulative fat level increases, consumers shift to dairy or white meat from red meat products.     

Dynamic Cost Inefficiency of the European Union Meat Processing Firms

We apply dynamic data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate dynamic cost inefficiency for a sample of European Union (EU) large meat processing firms over the period 2005–2012 and decompose this into the contributions of technical and allocative inefficiency. The estimation of dynamic inefficiencies controls for adjustment costs associated with firms’ investments. We further contribute by measuring dynamic cost inefficiencies and their components with regard to own region group (managerial inefficiencies) and the gap between the pooled frontier and the region-specific frontier (programme inefficiencies). Results show that technical inefficiency tends to be the largest component of cost inefficiency when both conducting the analysis for the EU as a whole and estimating a region-specific frontier. Results suggest significant differences in cost, technical, and allocative inefficiencies between meat processing firms in eastern, western and southern EU countries. We also find that the gaps between the pooled and region-specific frontiers tend to be small to negligible, which suggests that the main source of pooled inefficiencies are shortcomings in managerial practices rather than differences in region-specific conditions.     

Supply Management and Productivity Growth in Alberta Dairy

Specification of quota licenses as quasi-fixed inputs in a multi-variate flexible accelerator model of dynamic input adjustment reveals supply management's effect on Alberta dairy investment patterns and, thereby, on total factor productivity growth. Estimates of a dynamic dual model of Alberta dairy, using panel data from 1975–91, show that strong complementarity between cattle and quota licenses results in short-run cattle adjustments that are opposite in direction from the long-run adjustments. A model of total factor productivity growth under dynamic input adjustment shows that the distortions to cattle investment caused by investing in quota licenses adversely affects productivity growth. As a result, there is likely to be a significant understatement of single-period estimates of the cost of supply management in the dairy sector.     

A Dynamic Adjustment Model for U.S. Agriculture: 1948-79

A multioutput model is developed within the adjustment cost framework to analyze the structure of dynamic adjustments in U.S. agriculture during the post-war period. An important feature of this model is that the econometric model is consistent with dynamic economic theory. Fluctuations in capital stocks, variable inputs, and outputs are explained by changing opportunity costs. Empirical results indicated that durable equipment, farm-produced durables, and family labor exhibited significant rigidity in adjustment as a response to exogenous shocks. Surprisingly, the hypothesis that real estate was a variable input could not be rejected. The univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis, which is widely maintained in most agricultural adjustment studies, is inconsistent with the data.     

On the nature and magnitude of cost economies in hog production

In this article, we assess the impact of farm size on production cost and evaluate the marginal costs and margins by considering that input prices may change with the scale of production. By using French hog farm data, we estimate a system of equations including a feed price function, input demand functions, and an output supply function based on a technology approximated by a combined generalized Leontief‐Quadratic form. Our results suggest that the marginal costs are over‐estimated when the adjustment of the feed unit prices to a change in farm size is not controlled for. More specifically, the cost economies for large farms (enjoying the highest profits) arise primarily from lower feed prices, with technological scale economies having little impact. In contrast, farms with no hired labor exhibit technological scale economies and reach higher price‐cost margins compared to larger farms.     

FARMERS' ATTITUDES TO RURAL ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE: RESULTS OF A SURVEY IN JEMALONG SHIRE,N.S.W.*

The Australian Government has provided adjustment assistance to the rural sector since 1970 under several schemes. The demand for assistance has been lower than expected, given the alleged size of the problem, particularly for the 'welfare' oriented provisions. The results of a survey of farmers' attitudes to the current Rural Adjustment Scheme are examined in an attempt to explain this phenomenon. Measures designed to ease financial difficulties or to facilitate on-farm adjustment were much preferred to those designed to assist farmers to leave agriculture. Considerable confusion about the scheme was evident and many farmers thought that information about the scheme was inadequate. Better extension and counselling is suggested to improve information flows to farmers. The formulation of a more structured set of eligibility criteria is also suggested to reduce the complexity and uncertainty which farmers face when they are considering lodging an application for assistance.     

Investment rigidity and policy measures

This paper assesses the impacts of decoupled government transferson production decisions of a sample of Kansas farms. Our empiricalanalysis is based on a reduced-form application of the dualmodel of investment under uncertainty developed by Sckokai,which is extended to a consideration of irregularities in thecapital stock adjustment cost function. To do so we adopt thethreshold regression methods proposed by Hansen. The econometricresults support the existence of three regimes characterisedby different economic behaviour. Our analysis suggests thatin a dynamic setting that allows for irregularities in the capitaladjustment cost function, decoupled transfers can have a powerfulinfluence on production decisions. The dynamics of the stockof capital cause this influence to grow over time.     

Deriving a Flexible Mixed Demand System: The Normalized Quadratic Model

This article deals with the specification of a locally flexible and theory-consistent system of mixed demand functions, a framework that allows for a rich set of possibilities about what is assumed as exogenous in a demand model. A coherent mixed demand system is derived by using the restricted expenditure function typically studied in the related area of rationed demands. The method is implemented by a new normalized quadratic (NQ) parameterization of the restricted expenditure function. The resulting NQ mixed demand system is illustrated with an application to a nine-good model of the Italian demand for vegetables.     

加入WTO后莆田市果业面临的问题及对策

阐述了加入WTO后莆田市当前果业发展中的突出问题 ,指出应加快果业生产内部结构调整 ,要与市场需求相结合 ,推广果品栽培和产后处理新技术 ,发挥政府在信息引导、组织销售和技术服务等方面的作用     

建立广东供销合作经济信息大数据应用平台探讨

针对农产品与最终客用的供应链环节诸多问题,结合目前平价商店建设难以取得有效的供需环节成本降低、不利于取得引导市场价格合理形成等现象。本文认为解决涉农供需问题的最终出路,在于引导涉农产品供应链环节上的各方,主动掌握瞬息万变市场的信息,对涉农产品信息的采集、加工、预测、应用,建立健全一套完整的大数据信息采集及应用体系很有必要。