Modeling the impact of technological change on nutrition and marketed surplus

This study develops and demonstrates procedures for modeling the impact of agricultural technology adoption decisions on consumption and nutrition in a subsistence‐farming context. The method is based on expected direct utility maximization (EDUM) formulation and incorporates subsistence quantities for broad aggregates of protein, calories, and other consumption goods. The method is applied to a hillside farming system of southern Honduras where new sorghum cultivars and erosion control techniques are being introduced. The expected direct utility maximization model allows the estimation of the effects of new technology on consumption and marketed surplus in situations where marginal values of products vary by state of nature and are affected by consumption and production choices. The introduction of the new technologies in southern Honduras results in improved nutrition and substantial increases in marketed surplus. These effects are due to simultaneous changes in output and consumption patterns. This work extends the subject of household modeling to problems with risk, and thus complements prior work in both the integrated analysis of production/consumption decisions and stochastic decision analysis.     

Effect of yield and price risk on conversion from conventional to organic farming*

Although the benefits of organic farming are already well known, the conversion to organic farming does not proceed as the Dutch government expected. In order to investigate the conversion decisions of Dutch arable farms, a discrete stochastic dynamic utility‐efficient programming (DUEP) model is developed with special attention for yield and price risk of conventional, conversion and organic crops. The model maximizes the expected utility of the farmer depending on the farmer’s risk attitude. The DUEP model is an extension of a dynamic linear programming model that maximized the labour income of conversion from conventional to organic farming over a 10 year planning horizon. The DUEP model was used to model a typical farm for the central clay region in the Netherlands. The results show that for a risk‐neutral farmer it is optimal to convert to organic farming. However, for a more risk‐averse farmer it is only optimal to fully convert if policy incentives are applied such as taxes on pesticides or subsidies on conversion, or if the market for the organic products becomes more stable.     

SENSITIVITY OF FARM PLANS UNDER RISK-AVERSE BEHAVIOUR: A NOTE ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS

This study demonstrates that the intensity of farm-level land use can be extremely sensitive to minor reductions in expected farm income when the risk-averse farmer makes utility maximising decisions. The study uses directly elicited utility functions for farmers in the North of England in conjunction with MOTAD generated E, V frontiers. The results imply that instability encourages the use of less intensive farming methods and therefore could actually assist the achievement of environmental policy goals.     

Uncertain Land Availability and Investment Decisions: The Case of Dutch Dairy Farms

Within the EU, uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land can be quite significant for individual farmers in sectors like dairy farming. Farm‐level investment decisions are commonly made ex‐ante, when the farmer is not certain about the possibility of purchasing land. This possibility is realised only in a future period. In this paper, we have developed and applied a simple two‐period model in which a profit‐maximising farmer, facing uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land, has to choose the optimal mix of capital (buildings) investment and land endowment. We illustrate the model using data from Dutch dairy farms.     

Professional urban agriculture and its characteristic business models in Metropolis Ruhr,Germany

‘Low-cost specialization’, ‘differentiation’, and ‘diversification’ are three overarching business models of professional urban agriculture in developed countries. Manifold city-adjusted farm activities belong to these business models resulting in the characteristic farm heterogeneity of urban areas. This paper makes use of the business models as tool for a geo-statistical analysis to spatially investigate farming patterns in reference region Metropolis Ruhr, Germany. Additional farm interviews substantiate findings of the geo-statistical analysis by focusing on horticulture as a common farm activity towards ‘low-cost specialization’, direct marketing and participatory farming belonging to ‘differentiation’, and equestrian services as a representative of the ‘diversification’ business model. These farm activities and underlying business models concentrate and tend to spatially cluster in the metropolitan’s center where population density is highest and farmland proportion is lowest. Agriculture plays a significant role in Metropolis Ruhr cultivating about one-third of the metropolitan area, but on-going loss of farmland and short-term lease of land affect farms considerably by complicating access to land. Most differentiated and diversified farms require certain amount of farmland to be successful, which is threatened by further farmland losses along with increased competition for the remaining farmland. Long-term planning security is crucial for farms focusing on high added value crops and organic farming. Progressively emerging participatory farming activities demonstrate urban farms’ abilities to innovatively adapt to societal demands. Better knowledge on professional urban agriculture’s farm activities and business models is of importance for farms and their related advisory services to address the urban context in farm development strategies more accurately, but also for public authorities’ planning and policies in land-related decision making. Economic viability of professional urban agriculture is the key requirement for additional social, environmental, and landscape functions within urban areas.     

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: Implications for farm incomes,land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.     

农地城市流转社会理性决策框架构建及决策要素分析

本文提出了农地城市流转社会理性决策框架的构建方向，指出应当使农地城市流转决策实现从经济理性、个体理性到社会理性．从完全理性到有限理性的转变，且应把不确定与不可逆理念贯穿农地城市流转社会理性决策研究的始终。并在此基础上，对农地城市流转社会理性决策的决策要素进行了分析，从而构建了农地城市流转社会理性决策的基本分析框架。     

我国耕地非农化研究进展及展望

［目的］通过梳理我国耕地非农化的研究进展，研判现有研究成效及不足，并结合新时代耕地非农化的诉求，厘定未来研究导向和重点，为增强耕地非农化成果精准性提供参考和借鉴。［方法］该文采用文献综述法和对比分析法总结我国耕地非农化的研究及发展趋势。［结果］（1）从研究内容上看，我国耕地非农化研究内容丰富，耕地非农化发展现状主要涉及耕地非农化时空演变特征及规律，发展异质性显著； 耕地非农化对经济发展的正面影响较为明显，但对社会及生态环境的负面影响更为突出； 驱动力及驱动机制对耕地非农化的作用具有两面性； 耕地非农化体制机制、技术层面的调控因地区性发展差异而有所不同； 研究多以耕地非农化的静态为主，动态性不强，对耕地非农化发展过程的控制与管控研究存在不足。（2）从研究尺度上看，我国耕地非农化研究集中在以全国和省市域为主的宏观地域上，对全国以及各省份及其内部范畴的耕地非农化做出研究分析，该尺度范围内耕地非农化发展大体呈不均衡态势，而目前我国对于微观层面上的研究相对较少。（3）从研究方法上看，学者们多以定性方法为主，采用定性与定量相结合的方法研究土地利用问题，通过数理统计分析研究耕地非农化的驱动机制，并结合遥感与GIS技术对土地利用变化进行动态监测，但多目标、多学科综合集成的智能体技术应用较少。［结论］创新耕地非农化的研究方法，构建智能决策模型； 加强耕地非农化过程管控研究，提高实时监控力度与吻合度； 厘清微观主体的行为特征，完善多尺度、多层次结构是今后研究的重点。     

Land use and management in PR China: problems and strategies

The conflict between population and land in China results from high population density, declining availability of arable land, decrease in cropland, overgrazing, inability to afford imported grain, and expansion of land use for urbanization. Unwise decisions have been made. These decisions have resulted in land degradation, soil erosion, deforestation, degradation of grasslands, waste of land for freight storage or waste disposal due to low grain prices, and nonagricultural constructions on croplands. Ineffective land management problems are identified as: 1) the lack of an economic means of guiding land use and land is not valued; the lack of any mechanism to ensure economic land use including public lands which are not accounted for with rent; 2) the lack of integration of departments into the decision making structure and too many departments making decisions about the same land; 3) the lack of choice in land use which results in higher government departments being unaware of local conditions, and the lack of appropriate investment which results in short-term exploitation; and 4) surveys are inadequate for decision making. The strategies suggested for improvement in land use management include low resources expenditure in production and appropriate goods consumption. The goal is to sustain subsistence with gradual improvement through development. Land resources must be conserved and the environment protected. The solutions to depend on food imports or reduce the nutritional level deny the equally plausible solution to generate a higher level of input. The profit motive and scientific agricultural practices could accomplish this end. Reclamation for cropland is possible for 8 million hectares of wasteland in wide areas in Sanjiang Plain and 3.4 million hectares in small pockets in Eastern Monsoon China. Traditional agriculture must be transformed and an optimum scale of land operation established. Land tenure reform is necessary. Regional conditions must prevail as the guiding principles. Several implementation strategies are suggested: controlling population growth and establishing a balance between expenditure and land productivity, expanding and conserving forest areas, increasing agricultural investment, reforming land tenure, adjusting land product prices, strengthening land administration, developing other industries, and reforming economic and political systems.     

The Role of Attitudes and Objectives in Farmer Decision Making: Business and Environmentally-Oriented Behaviour in Scotland

Despite considerable effort to understand and represent decision making by farmers, there has been little attempt to integrate socio-economic, psychological and farming variables within a comprehensive framework. This paper attempts to do this in the context of two types of farming behaviour - business and environmental -for a sample of over 200 Scottish farmers. Using variables covering their attitudes, objectives and behaviours relevant to many aspects of farming, we proposed mediating variables models of business-oriented and environmentally-oriented farming behaviours. Structural equation modelling was used to test the adequacy of the proposed models. The results of the study emphasise the importance of psychological factors in the decision making of farmers.