Effects of Cheap Talk on Consumer Willingness-to-Pay for Golden Rice

A large body of literature suggests willingness-to-pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required. Recently, "cheap talk" has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions. Cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question. This study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique. Results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness-to-pay for most survey participants; however, consistent with previous research, cheap talk did not reduce willingness-to-pay for knowledgeable consumers.     

Using Ex Ante Approaches to Obtain Credible Signals for Value in Contingent Markets: Evidence from the Field

While contingent valuation remains the only option available for measurement of total economic value of nonmarketed goods, the method has been criticized due to its hypothetical nature. We analyze field experimental data to evaluate two ex ante approaches to attenuating hypothetical bias, directly comparing value statements across four distinct referenda: hypothetical, "cheap talk,""consequential," and real. Our empirical evidence suggests two major findings: hypothetical responses are significantly different from real responses; and responses in the consequential and cheap talk treatments are statistically indistinguishable from real responses. We review the potential for each method to produce reliable results in the field.     

Predicting versus testing: a conditional cross‐forecasting accuracy measure for hypothetical bias*

A measure of hypothetical bias, or the divergence between stated and revealed preferences, based on conditional cross‐forecasting accuracy is suggested, based on out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy when estimates from stated preference data are used in place of those from actual choices, and vice versa. We describe an application of this measure to assess hypothetical bias in the context of an inquiry into people’s willingness to pay to avoid canola oil produced from genetically modified plants. The analysis suggests the presence of groupwise hypothetical bias in these choice data.     

Valuing New Zealand recreational fishing and an assessment of the validity of the contingent valuation estimates

This article presents estimates of the recreational value of fishing in New Zealand. The data was obtained from a large-scale interview conducted at boat ramps across New Zealand. The results suggest that the recreational value of a species depends critically on the motives for targeting a particular species. Species targeted for eating purposes have marginal values that appear to closely reflect the market price of the fish (i.e. the opportunity cost). In contrast, those species which are sought mainly for recreational purposes, have a higher value. Furthermore, values for these fish types were found to be greatest for scarce species and large species of fish. The article examines the robustness of the estimates to determine whether strategic bias, embedding effects or hypothetical bias influence the results.     

Induced technical change in centrally planned economies

It has generally been assumed that the inferences of the induced technical change model with respect to the direction of technical change could not be expected to hold for the centrally planned economies. In this paper we test three hypotheses generated from the induced technical change hypotheses against the experience of centrally planned economies: (a) if land becomes increasingly scarce new technology will be biased in a land-saving direction; (b) if labor becomes increasingly scarce new technology will be biased in a labor-saving direction; and (c) changes in the land-labor ratio have been induced by changes in relative factor endowments. The results suggest a bias toward mechanical and against biological technology regardless of factor endowments. This is consistent with the well known ideological or policy bias in a number of centrally planned economies toward a capital-intensive development strategy.     

Stakeholder engagement in water policy: Lessons from peri-urban irrigation

In highly urbanised Australia many cities and towns demand may have exceeded existing water supply. In peri-urban areas this can lead to conflict over access to supplies with priority often given to urban users. In an effort to resolve potential conflicts, water management planning often seeks to engage ‘community stakeholders’ in an attempt to produce a ‘harmonised’ strategic plan. In this paper we focus on the process of developing one such plan for sustainable water management in a peri-urban area with complex and conflicting stakeholder interests. We subject data from a series of planning meetings and ‘stakeholder’ workshops to a critical review and analysis against the project's stated aims for this stage of the process of: engaging key stakeholders, developing a common vision, and deciding research priorities. We conclude that the approach was unable to achieve these strategic outcomes. In discussion we explore how this analysis reflects barriers in the engagement process, which highlight more general concerns about this widely accepted model for stakeholder engagement in resource issues.     

Willingness-to-sell conservation easements: A case study

A contingent valuation survey of forest landowners in Southern Vermont and Western Massachusetts suggests that it would cost about $700 per acre to entice about one-half of Massachusetts and 33% of Vermont respondents to permanently conserve their forestland. Policies that promote early development of management plans and cooperation with neighbors are recommended because these activities appear to increase the likelihood that landowners will convey conservation easements. Education and a strong environmental ethic also improve the chances that respondents would sell conservation easements. A prediction-based contingent valuation format designed to reduce incentives for strategic behavior suggests that our results likely represent a lower bound estimate of landowner response to a large-scale conservation easement program.     

Testing for convergent validity between travel cost and contingent valuation estimates of recreation values in the Coorong,Australia*

A number of studies valuing recreation have shown that the travel cost method (TCM) generates higher estimates of value than the contingent valuation method (CVM), even though the latter is commonly associated with potential problems of hypothetical and strategic bias. In this study, both methods have been used to estimate the recreational values associated with the Coorong on the Murray River in south‐eastern Australia. Values per adult visitor per recreation day are estimated with the TCM at $149 and with the CVM at $116. A number of methodological and framing issues to explain these value differences are tested. In summary, while no single methodological or framing issue could be identified that would reconcile the difference between TCM and CVM values, it appears likely that there may be a combination of factors that drive the systematic variations in consumer surplus values. The evidence in this study suggests that the most important of these are likely to be the different decision points underpinning data collection and the consideration of substitute sites, strategic responses and the treatment of uncertain responses within the CVM.     

Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers' response to change under uncertainty

Hierarchical Decision Models of woolproducers' decisions provide unique insights into the impact of major price changes. Producers' lagged response in some contexts appear to be due to the ambiguous decision environment they face, their strategic goals and responses to that environment apart from lags caused by factors such as attitude to risk, expectations adjustment, adjustment costs and learning costs. Much of the response to major price changes comes from strategic decisions to change enterprises rather than marginal changes to existing enterprises. In ambiguous environments, methods may need to be found that incorporate simplifying behavioural rules and strategies.     

Protester or non‐protester: a binary state? On the use (and non‐use) of latent class models to analyse protesting in economic valuation*

In the analysis of stated preferences studies, it is often assumed that protesting is a discretely measured item only occurring among those who are not willing to pay. However, various studies have recently shown that protest beliefs are as well held by respondents who state a positive willingness to pay (WTP). Using latent class (LC) models, we investigate the extent of heterogeneity with respect to protest beliefs among all respondents of two contingent valuation studies. The advantage of LC models is that classes of individuals are endogenously identified and no selection bias is introduced by ad hoc definitions of protesters. Further we investigate whether it is possible to identify a class of non‐protesters. Finding a group of pure non‐protesters could indicate how strongly stated WTP in the whole sample is affected by protest beliefs. For both samples, we find a class with strong protest beliefs but no pure non‐protest class. Overall, our results suggest that LC models might not be the first choice to determine unbiased WTP measures, but they provide valuable insights into the degree of protesting expressed by different groups and corresponding determinants of group membership.     

Health and hunger: nutrient response to income depending on caloric availability in Nepal

Using data from NLSS III, we estimate nutrient‐income elasticities for macronutrients, vitamins, and minerals. We further allow for differential nutrient demand response to income depending on where a household is in the caloric availability distribution. We find that some nutrients are income inelastic indicating that they are necessity goods while others are relatively income elastic. We further test and reject equivalent nutrient‐income elasticities across the caloric availability distribution. Households in the lowest calorie quintile have highly income elastic nutrient demand leaving them vulnerable to income fluctuations. Moreover, as households meet their first‐order caloric needs, they substitute away from cheap calorie‐dense staples toward more expensive nutrient‐dense foods. Finally, for most nutrients, households in the highest calorie quintile exhibit more elastic nutrient demand, similar to households in the lowest quintile. Our results suggest that policies aimed at improving income will likely also improve household nutrient availability, particularly for the most calorie poor households. They further suggest that policies aimed at protecting poor households from negative income shocks will also likely yield nutritional benefits.     

Combining Revealed and Stated Preferences: Consistency Tests and Their Interpretations

This article models the recreation demand for Iowa wetlands, combining survey data on both actual usage patterns (i.e., revealed preferences (RPs)) and anticipated changes to those patterns under hypothetical increases in trip costs (i.e., stated preferences (SPs)). We formulate and test specific hypotheses concerning potential sources of bias in each approach and discuss what can be learned about the validity of the models from such tests.     

The elephant in the scheme: Planning for and around car parking in Melbourne, 1929–2016

A relatively recent body of literature has looked critically at the role of car parking in urban areas, showing that a significant determinant of the extent of parking space is the planning system. Of particular importance are statutory minimum off-street parking requirements for new developments. If parking and parking policies are significant to urban outcomes, one question that follows is − how active a role (if any) has strategic urban planning had in car parking? In this paper we ask if, and in what ways, car parking has been a stated strategic planning interest over the course of nearly a century of planning for one city − Melbourne, Australia. Our approach has three parts: a content analysis of strategic planning documents over time; a corresponding analysis of statutory policies on the ground; and reflection on what this means for the relationships between strategy and policy.We find that extensive car parking, treated as a public good, was once specifically planned as a critical component of facilitating a car-based city. We show that car parking has receded as a strategic policy issue over time, but that statutory minimum parking requirements introduced in the 1950s continue to be entrenched. Even with more recent strategic plans seeking to curtail car use and increase urban densities, minimum parking policies originally introduced to achieve the opposite effects have remained largely intact. We argue that parking has a significant role in urban form but is, in our case study city, illustrative of gaps between strategic and statutory planning, and between planning practice and research. Whereas post-war planning instigated policy approaches to car parking as a means of planning for car use, strategic planning in Melbourne now plans around parking − the elephant in the scheme. The findings have implications for other intensifying cities with a history of minimum parking policies; as well as for cities now undergoing rapid motorisation.     

关于及早谋划战略性新兴矿产发展的思考与建议

从世界经济格局、中国经济社会发展趋势、人类社会发展史方面看,战略性新兴矿产都具有关键性、战略性作用。根据已有专家学者的研究成果和国外的有关表述结合我国实际,建议将支撑战略性新兴产业所需的重要矿产资源简称为“战略性新兴矿产”,其定义应由相应法规或国家规划确定。战略性新兴矿产名录应该是动态可变的。要对战略性新兴矿产勘查开发作出战略性、政策性谋划,将其列入国家战略,健全相应法规,统一规划,开展战略调查评价;把新能源勘查开发利用提到更高的战略高度;适时调整对钨、锡、锑、稀土、石墨、锂、萤石等重要矿产管理思路和调控政策;加强基础理论研究和技术攻关;实施“走出去”战略。     

Estimating random effects production function models with selectivity bias: an application to Swedish crop producers

In this paper, the estimation of production functions and measurement of the rate of technical change is performed when selectivity bias is expected. A sample selection model consisting of a selection and a regression equation is estimated using Heckman's two-stage method. It is discussed in the context of a production function where the underlying technology is represented by a translog functional form. For the regression, a random effects model with heteroscedastic variances is assumed. This model and an alternative conventional model retaining heteroscedasticity without considering selectivity bias are estimated using the Generalized Least Squares method. The data used are a large rotating panel data set from Swedish crop producers over the period 1976–1988. The empirical results from the comparison between these two models show that the introduction of heteroscedasticity and the integration of sample selection in the production relationship is important. The impact of a correction for selectivity bias on the results, in terms of input elasticities and returns to scale is found to be significant.     

蓝色经济区建设中的海洋战略资源开发研究

海洋战略资源开发对山东半岛蓝色经济区建设具有战略意义。但在开发过程中,存在着对海洋战略资源的界定不清晰、海洋经济区的规划以及海洋产业布局中海洋战略资源无法得到有效利用、科学技术本身作为一种战略资源还没有得到充分重视、相关法律法规相当不健全等问题。针对这些问题,作者提出应该采取树立大海洋战略资源观念、协调发展各海洋产业、遵循开发与保护并举的原则,政府应建立健全海洋法律法规体系等对策建议。     

浅谈地勘单位的人力资源管理

世界经济繁荣发展和全球化趋势,向管理者提出了更高的要求,而人力资源管理水平则在很大程度上决定了企业实现战略目标的能力。面对严峻形势,地勘单位要把培养、吸引和用好人才作为一项重大战略任务,建立健全人力资源管理制度,形成能进能出、有效激励、竞争择优、充满活力的用人机制,实现人力资源的效益最大化,促进地勘事业开发走向新的繁荣。     

Convergent validity between revealed and stated recreation demand data: Some empirical evidence from the Basque Country,Spain

In a travel cost exercise, reported past visits to mount Jaizkibel, a natural area located in the Basque Country (Spain), are compared for convergent validity to stated intended future trips under the assumption that the natural resource's conditions will remain the same. In line with the results obtained by other studies, the empirical evidence of this application suggests that revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) do not produce consistent data, i.e. do not achieve convergent validity. The paper deals with the convergent validity literature in continuous-choice studies by using two-staged count data models for recreation demand. Differences in preference structures and welfare estimates are tested assuming both common and different data generating processes for the RP and SP data.     

CONTRADICTORY PREDICTIONS ON SUPPLY RESPONSE UNDER STABILIZATION: A RECONCILIATION

Two separate bodies of literature on stabilization give radically different results, yet these contradictions have not attracted any attention. The first arises from the neoclassical theory of stabilization and predicts that beneficial stabilization will always attract positive supply response. The second arises from the work of Newbery and Stiglitz and predicts 'perverse' supply response for highly risk averse producers. In this paper, the differences which yield these results are described and some suggestions are made for a generalized model.