Information Sharing and Oligopoly in Agricultural Markets: The Role of the Cooperative Bargaining Association

We study incentives for information sharing among agricultural intermediaries in imperfectly competitive markets for farm output. Information sharing always increases expected grower and total surplus, but may reduce expected intermediary profits. Even when expected profits increase with information sharing, intermediary firms face a prisoner's dilemma where it is privately rational to withhold information, given that other firms report truthfully. This equilibrium can be avoided if firms' information reports are verifiable, and if firms commit to an ex ante contract that enforces participation in information sharing. We show how agricultural bargaining legislation can implement such a contract with the bargained farm price representing a sufficient statistic of all information held by intermediary firms.     

Reputation Leaders,Quality Laggards: Incentive Structure in Markets with Both Private and Collective Reputations

A theoretical model is developed to illustrate the economic incentives to invest in quality in markets with a dual reputation structure: private (firm reputation) and collective (regional reputation). Numerical dynamic programming techniques are then used to simulate firms’ strategic behaviour, and competitive outcomes are compared to the optimal investment of a regional planner. Market and product characteristics inducing asymmetric and/or sub‐optimal investment strategies, potentially destabilising for the region, are investigated.     

Urban planning in office markets: A methodological approach

This article stresses the importance of urban planning interventions on real estate office markets in an environment increasingly characterized by globalization processes and progress of information and communication technologies, leaving behind the traditional influence of more market-related variables spread abroad vast literature. It contends that a better indirect control exerted by municipal authorities may launch the performance and characteristics of these markets. Within this scope, an innovative methodology and model are proposed, aimed at assisting municipal decisions in the definition of strategic policies concerning location or relocation of offices, and respective influences over rents. This methodology and this model have a flexible ongoing character that fits the anytime concrete features of local office markets. They are applied, as a case study, to the office market of Oporto city (Portugal). Implications for urban policy are inferred and generalized from this analysis.     

Forty years of irrigation development and reform in China

This study reviews 40 years of irrigation development in China including the transformation of the institutional and incentive structures in irrigation management. After rural reforms in the 1970s, irrigation investments slowed until the late 1990s. In North China, farmers became major investors in groundwater irrigation, leading to property rights’ transfer of tube wells from collective to private ownership. Despite positive effects in cropping patterns, farmer income and development of groundwater markets, privatisation has accelerated groundwater table deterioration. Since the middle of 1990s, Water User Associations have replaced village collective management of surface irrigation. This approach was adopted by most provinces by early 2001 with mixed results; only institutions with water‐saving incentives realised efficient irrigation. The Government is reforming water price policies to provide water‐saving incentives to farmers while not hurting their income. While China has focused on water rights and markets, and despite regulations and pilot projects, full implementation of water rights has been slow. Research reveals greater policy scope for expanding irrigation technologies that generate real water saving to rural areas. Given pressure associated with water scarcity and concern for food security, further effective reforms in irrigation and policy incentives are expected. The Government has also initiated some pilot projects to resolve increasing water scarcity problems through adjusting agricultural production activities.     

Understanding grassland rental markets and their determinants in eastern inner Mongolia,PR China

Grassland rental markets function as a venue for balancing production factors of herder households. This paper jointly determines the socioeconomic factors affecting herders’ grassland rent-in and rent-out behaviors by applying Bivariate Probit Model with clustering standard errors on 422 households’ data from Eastern Inner Mongolia. Results reveal that imbalances in “people-grassland (grass)-livestock-productive assets” are the major determinants of the herder households’ participation in grassland rental markets. Given other factors, an increase of 10 thousand yuan in a household’ productive assets renders an increase/decrease in their rent-in/rent-out participation likelihood by 1.0% and 2.0%, respectively; an increase of 100 standard sheep unit may bring about 4% increase in rent-in participation and 0.6% decrease in rent-out participation; an increase of 100 hm² in hayfields may decrease and increase the likelihood of rent-in and rent-out participation by 13% and 3%, respectively; an increase of 1.0% in ratio of non-livestock income may decrease propensity of rent-in by 0.34%, and increase propensity of rent-out by 0.2%. In addition, the education and Chinese level of household head, and the available family labor encourage participation in grassland rent-in market. Main findings help facilitate better allocation of herders’ livelihood assets by participating the functional grassland rental markets.     

Australia's coal seam gas boom and the LNG entry result

Queensland experienced extraordinary growth in booked 2P coal seam gas (CSG) reserves, rising from 3,400 PJ in 2005 to 41,200 PJ in 2013. Given annual domestic consumption of ca. 700 PJ/a, 2P reserves rapidly shifted from 14 to 72 years supply. Profit‐maximising firms sought to speed up commercialisation of reserves through the development of three liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants at Gladstone. In this article, we present forecasts of Australia's east coast interconnected gas system with daily resolution using our dynamic partial equilibrium model. Modelling results show the rapid development of LNG plants combined with restrictive CSG development policies in NSW may result in unserved load from 2016. Relaxing development constraints or delaying construction of one LNG terminal by 1 year could have avoided the risk of Unserved Load events in the domestic gas market. Lessons can be learned from this CSG‐LNG boom scenario. Facilitating new gas supplies is the most efficient way of alleviating the impacts of the CSG‐LNG boom on domestic markets in the medium term. In the long‐term, Australian policymakers may consider the merits of a National Net Benefits Test to maximise welfare through appropriate coordination – as is done by policymakers in the USA – as opposed to protecting local industries through ‘domestic gas reservation policies’.     

Are maize marketers averse to quality loss in supplies? A case study from Ghana

To ensure sustainable post‐harvest loss reduction, markets that are averse to quality loss and provide incentives for farmers to supply high quality produce are crucial. Such markets will be averse to quality loss, offering distinct prices and substantial rewards to farmers for the supply of quality produce. Farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), where informal markets exist, have often assessed the rewards for the supply of quality produce as inadequate. Hence, this study investigates if intermediary buyers are actually indifferent to quality loss in supplies based on two scenarios—the informal market scenario and a hypothesized grade scenario. The analysis builds on survey data from marketers in two informal maize markets in Ghana. For the hypothesized grade scenario, random effect regression was used to examine the influence of marketer‐specific characteristics on premiums offered to farmers over different quality levels. The findings suggest that although informal markets seem not to adequately value loss reduction, investing in institutional infrastructures, such as grades and standards can change this. Furthermore, interaction among marketers and association participation positively influences the value marketers place on quality loss reduction. The result highlights the importance of standard grading systems and collaborating with market groups in minimizing quality loss.     

Measuring the functional efficiency of agricultural futures markets

This article presents a method for measuring the functional efficiency of agricultural futures markets in terms of social welfare using a standard futures market structural model. Employing the concept of social surplus, it can be shown that, when futures prices are used to estimate future spot prices, the errors in prediction produce to some degree resource misallocation, which in turn results in welfare losses. Therefore, the social welfare associated with the presence of futures markets can be measured using a Social Loss index. The indicator was calculated for the period 1975–2015 and for several subperiods, which allow us to analyse functional efficiency before and after the 2007–2008 spikes in the prices of agricultural commodities. Futures contracts for 12 products are evaluated. The products are grouped in three different categories: ‘soft products’, ‘livestock’ and ‘grains and oilseeds’. The results indicate that livestock contracts tended to be more efficient than the rest of the contracts during the whole period, but in 2008–2015 their efficiency decreased vis‐á‐vis the rest of the products. Nevertheless, 2008–2015 proved to be the most efficient subperiod, confirming the remarkable development of agricultural futures markets over time.     

Economic Incentives for Firms to Implement Enhanced Food Safety Controls: Case of the Canadian Red Meat and Poultry Processing Sector

This study assesses quantitatively the economic incentives for firms to adopt food safety controls and the potential impact of a number of firm- and market-specific characteristics on this behavior, focusing on the red meat and poultry processing sector in Canada. The results suggest that market-based (private) incentives have a greater impact on the food safety responsiveness of firms in this sector than government regulatory actions. This creates challenges for regulators in defining policy instruments that promote greater levels of food safety control in food processing sectors rather than constraining firms from taking initiatives that exceed regulatory requirements.     

Consumer Preferences as Drivers of the Common Bean Trade in Tanzania: A Marketing Perspective

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of bean grain quality characteristics on market price. The data were collected from retail markets in Tanzania. Hedonic pricing provides a statistical estimate of premiums and discounts. Implications for the development of bean markets include the following: (a) extension agents should identify cost-effective ways to educate producers on targeting urban market niches based on consumer preferences for varieties, (b) breeding for bruchid-resistant beans and use of appropriate storage technologies would alleviate the problems of storage damage, and (c) a portfolio of grain quality characteristics to fit consumer preferences in local markets should be required.     

Market Incentives for Safe Foods: An Examination of Shareholder Losses from Meat and Poultry Recalls

Meat and poultry recalls, while voluntary, are carried out under governmental oversight. If firms have financial incentives to avoid being implicated in a recall situation, governmental involvement in recalls may cause firms to internalize social costs when making investment decisions concerning food safety controls. To examine these incentives, we analyze federally supervised meat and poultry recalls from 1982 to 1998 within an event study. Results show significant shareholder losses when publicly traded food companies are implicated in a recall involving serious food safety hazards. We find no evidence that the stock market reacts negatively when recalls involve less severe hazards.     

Incentives, Information Systems, and Competition

We investigate how different competitive regimes affect the ability to provide incentives based on noisy information systems. The set-up involves multiple producers and processors in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection. Reduced competition may facilitate incentive provision by allowing more high-powered incentives. This may rationalize both vertical and horizontal integration as seen in many agricultural markets with uncertain quality grading. On the other hand, if trading terms are settled before the information is observed, a noisy information system may suffice to give proper incentives. This may rationalize the use of long-term conditional price contracts in the trading of many agricultural products.     

A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water

This article develops a stochastic dynamic model of irrigation technology adoption. It predicts that farms will not invest in modern technologies unless the expected present value of investment exceeds the cost by a potentially large hurdle rate. The article also demonstrates that, contrary to common belief, water markets can delay adoption. The introduction of a market should induce farms with abundant (scarce) water supplies to adopt earlier (later) than they would otherwise. This article was motivated by evidence that, contrary to NPV predictions, farms wait until random events such as drought drive returns significantly above costs before investing in modern irrigation technologies.     

Establishing a Framework for an Information System

Many decision errors arise out of a failure to understand the nature and structure of the information system that supports policy decisions, public or private. For a information system to be reliable and accurate three subsystems, data collection, inquiry (or analysis) and policy decision, must share the same base of concepts, measurable proxies porn the real world to represent those concepts, and compatible measurement techniques and processing designs in the data used. All information systems must be closely adapted to the specific context of the decisions they are intended to support.
Rapid globalization of markets and the parallel revolution in information technologies and supporting information infrastructure, institutions and human capital are transforming the agri-food sector. The food system is moving away from mass markets driven by the production of standardized commodities toward many smaller, diverse, and customized niche markets driven by consumer preferences for specific food characteristics. Concentration, vertical coordination and integration are growing, particularly in the livestock sector, and especially hogs. Information technologies now permit firms to discover and track consumer preferences while the new biotechnologies make it possible to create the characteristics in products that consumers desire in niche markets. Information has itself become an important commodity.     

Incentives and static and dynamic gains from market reform: rice production in Vietnam

This article develops a dynamic model to account for the enhanced incentive effects that result from market reform through a move toward private property rights and competitive markets. Reform is captured through an emerging profits function which depends on effective prices and incentives to work harder. Static and dynamic output gains from reform are derived through increases in total factor productivity and induced capital accumulation. The model is applied to rice production in Vietnam over the period 1976–94. The more extensive is market reform, the larger the effects found on rice output, the capital stock and transitional growth rates, suggesting that incentives and more competitive markets matter greatly.     

Can improved agricultural technologies spur a green revolution in Africa? A multicountry analysis of seed and fertilizer delivery systems

Sub‐Saharan Africa faces low agricultural productivity amid a confluence of trends that include rapid population growth, climate change, and the rise of the middle class. To raise productivity, governments—in partnership with donors and development organizations—have launched numerous initiatives to encourage the development of sustainable and competitive agricultural input markets. Despite these efforts, markets remain underdeveloped in most countries and access to affordable seeds and fertilizers remains a major challenge for smallholder farmers. This paper explores evidence from recent multicountry analyses of input delivery systems to assess the possibility of a Green Revolution in Africa. It describes use and adoption levels, challenges, policy and regulatory issues, and investments needed to expand smallholder access to these productivity‐enhancing agricultural technologies.     

A Private-Public Strategy for International Marketing Through Collective Brands: Canada Brand Foods

A country brand for agrifood products requires managing quality across a range of products and firms while recognizing the potential pitfalls in linking a brand's image with a country's image. Understanding the incentives for firms adopting the brand to use and contribute to the brand's equity informs the choice of brand management mechanism. The challenges in managing a country brand for international agrifood exports are discussed. This case is used to illustrate a strategy based on the obstacles faced by a collective brand that is used by many firms. The article highlights how a successful strategy will produce a brand that is unique, robust to impersonators, and has quality assurance mechanisms that are in line with firm's incentives to produce high-quality products.     

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia,Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global wheat availability and, hence, global food security. During the past 15 years, however, RUK wheat exports have shown high variability, mainly because they have been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. We present an outlook for RUK wheat production and exports up to 2027, taking into account possible yield variability and harvest failures, and focusing on the impact on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world’s major wheat importing region. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the Aglink-Cosimo model. Simulation results show that wheat yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international wheat markets. The projected substantial increases in world market prices due to limited RUK wheat exports threaten food security in MENA and highlight the need for both stabilising RUK yields and novel complementary food security approaches to decrease MENA’s vulnerability to disruptions in agricultural world markets.     

Decarbonisation and wholesale electricity market design

In recent decades, many power systems have introduced electricity generator competition. Market designs have varied with some countries adopting ‘energy‐only’ markets and others utilising capacity remuneration mechanisms. With increasing deployment of cost competitive renewable energy and the introduction of policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, concerns are emerging about the sustainability of these market designs. In Australia, wholesale electricity prices have increased markedly – the result of a ‘disorderly’ transition away from coal to new renewable energy. This paper critically examines the ‘energy‐only’ market in a high‐penetration renewables system, with a particular focus on the vertically and horizontally restructured National Electricity Market (NEM). We propose that the ‘energy‐only’ market can indeed work within a decarbonised energy system. But as renewables increasingly replace coal‐fired power stations, ‘unintended consequences’ will need to be addressed to facilitate an ‘orderly’ transition. It will be important that policy ensures appropriate new investment in firm capacity is forthcoming; and pricing outcomes are acceptable given political economy constraints.     

Price predictors in an extended hedonic regression framework: An application to wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia

Livestock markets influence income generation for producers, but also accessibility and affordability of highly nutritious animal-sourced foods for consumers. Despite their importance, the functioning of livestock markets in lower-income countries is poorly understood and rarely studied compared to more developed countries. This study analyzes wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia using a uniquely rich large-scale dataset covering both prices and cattle characteristics in 39 markets (in both highland and lowland areas) over a 10-year period, and hedonic regression models structured to understand both cattle price formation and seasonal and secular price dynamics. We show that cattle prices are influenced by a wide range of factors, including proxies for meat quality, religious fasting practices, climate-based seasonality but also climate shocks and availability of grazing land, competition from animal traction services, and rising consumer incomes. However, the implied effects of these factors are often significantly different in highland mixed crop-livestock areas compared to agro-pastoralist lowland areas, emphasizing the dualistic nature of cattle markets in Ethiopia. The analyses help inform the systemic challenges that Ethiopia will need to overcome to meet rising demand for beef products in the face of sustained income and population growth, as well as the adverse effects of climate change.