A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogotá region

Bogotá and the 17 neighboring municipalities make up one of the biggest metropolitan areas in Latin America. However, despite strong functional interactions within the area, there is no official government body at this level in charge of coordinating authorities and providing solutions to the wide variety of issues arising in the regional urban land system. Aiming at providing an insight on future land-use developments linked to new transport infrastructures and at offering a tool to support territorial decision-making, this paper presents a cellular automata-based (CA) model based in Metronamica® software, that allows testing different scenarios based on potential land-use policies, environmental suitability and transport alternatives.There has not been, so far, an urban planning tool that accounts for the complexities of this region. CA-based land-use simulations constitute a useful approach to understanding the impacts of urban planning policies and regulations. This tool can help to improve inter-territorial and inter-institutional coordination, which through planning and management policies seek a spatially integrated development, with a long-term perspective.The CA-based model proposed was calibrated to reproduce land-use changes between 2007 and 2016 using different methods and indicators. The model was used to simulate and analyze eight scenarios with different policy directions of transport infrastructure in the future of the region. The results of the simulations reflect the dynamics of territorial occupation. The calibration indices in the experiment indicate a high degree of suitability for the CA Bogotá model, proving its effectiveness and potential as a useful tool for decision-making. The results show that occupation scenarios with restricted developable zones within the city, tend to have the greater dispersion rate in the study area, compared to scenarios where land development plans are promoted in Bogotá, which representing a more compact development.     

Assessing the fragmentation of construction land in urban areas: An index method and case study in Shunde, China

The fragmentation of construction land due to decentralised urban development, disorderly mixed land use, and large-scale transportation infrastructure poses a threat to urban integrity. There is a need to quantify the fragmentation level in a consistent way for inclusion in planning-related decisions. In the context of China's urban sprawl, this study develops a quantitative and intuitive index approach that planners can use to analyse multiple fragmentation features of construction land within urban areas. The approach can be used in planning policy reviews for timely land-use assessment and can be integrated into urban planning processes for developing strategic land-use scenarios. The method was applied in Shunde, a typical urban area in southern China, and construction-land fragmentation and its impacts on environmental quality were analysed. The results show that the entire built-up area in Shunde displays a high level of fragmentation. Patches of industrial and rural residence have been identified specifically higher fragmentation level. The shortage of available construction land makes land consolidation within built-up areas very important in planning Shunde's future development. Moreover, the land shortage requires the progressive reduction of construction land fragmentation. The results of the study also indicate that although land fragmentation has been affected by transportation infrastructure and the existence of rivers and hills in this region, decentralised decisions from hierarchical local governance regimes have greatly exacerbated this situation. Shunde provides examples of typical land-use problems associated with quasi-urbanised regions in China; construction-land fragmentation is a greater determinant for the sustainable development of urban and rural areas than construction-land growth.     

Analysing outdoor airflow and pollution as a parameter to assess the compatibility of mass-scale low-cost residential development

Land use compatibility has always remained an integrally crucial factor for city development. Traditional contentious theories integrating land use planning principles, demand-oriented market development and industry-induced air pollution regulations have debated the adjacency of residential and industrial land uses. However, in the event of inevitable and unprecedented urbanization, where land shortage has compelled cities to expand towards the industrial peripheries, low-income resettlement planning turns evident. However, this process turns detrimental when land use incompatibility affects newly settled population. Adjacent industrial pollution degrades health and liveability, ultimately forcing the population to vacate the housing and recur poverty recycling phenomenon. This study aims to assess micro-level land-use compatibility from health and liveability viewpoint using environment-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis as a surrogate measurement technique. It is assumed that if site-based ventilation potential and airflow assessment can be performed at early design for site-selection and post-construction stages for rational retrofitting, it would deliver a liveable environment to the low-income inhabitants. While industrial development is irresistible, this study focused on environment-sensitive built-environment planning, utilising aerodynamically potential morpho-metrics of urban form density, inter-building gaps and integrated open spaces. Simulated results demonstrated that while existing built-environment planning failed to deliver improved ventilation, the simulation-based approach of iterated built-environment designs created air channelling and pollutant transport paths, thus reducing the air pollution stagnancy quotient. This study, by applying a system-driven methodological approach aided in bridging the knowledge gaps of micro-level land use compatibility assessment from environmental perspective and health viewpoint.     

Exploring the environmental value of ecosystem services for a river basin through a spatial multicriteria analysis

Environmental quality preservation and nature conservation are complex land use planning problems, involving not only environmental aspects but also socio-economic and operational factors and represent ecosystem services of fundamental importance to human well-being, for health, livelihoods and survival. The present paper proposes a Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System (MC-SDSS) development for the assessment of the environmental quality of the river basin of the Pellice river in the Province of Turin (Italy) with the objective of increasing awareness of environmental issues in the territorial planning phase. In order to fulfill this goal, the environmental quality issues were divided into two main aspects, “naturalness” and pressures”, which represent the strengths and the weaknesses of the territory. Different criteria were considered for each theme and were integrated into composite maps by a weighted linear combination of factors resulting from a focus group with several experts in different fields. The results of this approach generated a final suitability map of the study area. The map identifies some critical zones that need mitigation measures and highlights areas with high environmental quality which require future specific monitoring procedures and valorization actions. The application was performed by means of the IDRISI software. This paper is based on an integrated approach which facilitates the comprehension of complex phenomena and aims at exploring innovative MCDA models in the field of the environmental quality preservation assessment of territorial transformation.     

Climate change,urban energy and planning practices: Italian experiences of innovation in land management tools

Climate change and energy saving are challenging the city and the territorial organization. Innovative spatial and urban planning methods and procedures are required, and new approaches and instruments must be elaborated and applied in order to shift from the building scale to the urban and territorial ones. In fact, while energy saving and emission control measures are usually applied to single buildings, plants and technological systems, the urban and territorial scales are not fully considered, although energy consumption and greenhouse gases reduction are connected to the urban form and density, to activities allocation, to mobility, etc., thus involving spatial and land-use planning decisions. It is therefore urgent to overcome the divide between energy and urban planning by elaborating and using new implementation tools. In general, the usual top-down, public-led actions are no longer politically and economically viable, whereas new methods based on public–private partnerships are being progressively adopted. This is a major change, which may set new objectives for planning practices in terms of urban quality, equity, and energy efficiency. This perspective requires redefinition of the usual methods for development rights assignment, and the activation of new planning procedures based on the assessment of actions in terms of performance instead of conformance to pre-defined rules. The expected results regard a more efficient land market and better performing development (or re-development) choices.The article focuses on the Italian case and analyzes the possibility of integrating energy planning with spatial planning, the effectiveness of plan implementation mechanisms, and the prospect of integrate public-led interventions with market tools. Recent innovations in the legislative framework support the inclusion of energy saving and climate change adaptation and mitigation goals in plan implementation procedures.     

A pragmatic approach for soil erosion risk assessment within policy hierarchies

This paper presents a methodological framework for scale-specific assessment of soil erosion by water. The framework enables the definition of hierarchical, functional and modular nested reference units which result from the integrated consideration of policy, process and model hierarchies. The framework is applied on three planning levels: at first, large scale zones are designated that show a defined risk potential for soil erosion (first level: catchments and drainage areas in the German Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt, ca. 20,000 km²). By both increasing model complexity and spatio-temporal resolution of input data, the results are locally specified within these risk zones (second level: designated farms and fields in a study area of 141 km²). This is the basis for the prediction of soil erosion areas and sediment transport to hydrologic drainage networks as well as for small scale management and measure planning (third level: designated field blocks in the study area). On this level, the mitigation of soil erosion and sediment entry to the river system is demonstrated by simulating the introduction of conservation management practices, vegetation and riparian buffer strips.     

How feasible is regional integration for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban–rural interface? Evidence from Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region in China

Competition among different uses for land is becoming acute under the process of urbanization, and conflicts related to this competition are becoming more frequent and more complex. This article presents a methodology for confronting this issue. By applying an integrated framework, we explore the implicit role of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Regional Integration (BRI) policy in land use conflicts by focusing on the urban-rural interface, and try to address the research question: “How feasible is BRI for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban-rural interface?” An original structure of the analysis is developed based on the identification of three types of conflicts, namely, conflicts over land use structure, conflicts over land conversion and conflicts over landscape pattern. According to the interactions and relationships among these conflicts, we define broad categories of land use conflict areas. Indeed, these conflicts are all related to the unplanned use of agricultural land reserves, which competes with other more immediate uses, and the over-exploitation of land resources caused by unsustainable urban practices. This policy is clearly a critical objective for optimizing the land use structure. It, however, fails to reconcile the conflicts over land conversion and landscape pattern, especially for considerable agricultural land conversion to non-agricultural uses, and low-density development pattern with mixed residential and industrial land uses. Hence, alternative strategies involving public participation, spatial equity, rural revitalization, land-use system reform, and new type of urbanization, can be identified as viable solutions for land use conflict management, which may be complementary to regional integration. The findings of our paper may also contribute to the policy debate on BRI concerning land use planning and regional sustainability.     

半城市化地区土地适宜性评价方法及应用——以厦门市集美区为例

研究目的:构建半城市化地区土地适宜性评价指标体系,促进农村与城市间过渡性区域的土地资源可持续利用。研究方法:将厦门市集美行政区域划分为农用地、建设用地和生态用地三种土地利用类型,选择合适的评价指标,基于遥感、地理信息系统、层次分析法、专家评分法等手段对每种土地利用类型的适宜性进行评价。研究结果:集美区适宜作为农用地、建设用地和生态用地的土地面积分别占总面积的11.7%、15.4%和1.6%,与当地土地利用实际比较吻合。研究结论:构建的土地适宜性指标体系和评价步骤可用于其他半城市化地区。     

存量划拨工业用地处置方式研究——基于北京市存在问题的实证分析

研究目的:正确把握城市热点区域存量划拨工业用地申请补办出让的内在动因及其对城市科学供地、合理用地的影响,为政府主管部门决策提供实证参考。研究方法:实证分析和因果分析。研究结果:城市热点地区存量划拨工业用地申请补办出让的目的并非基于现状用途,而是期望通过补办出让—转让获取额外收益。研究结论:现行直接办理协议出让的简单处置方式,可能会影响土地市场的公平竞争和健康有序发展。建议政府主管部门区别不同情况,采取更为适宜的处置方式。     

Risk assessment along the gas pipelines and its application in urban planning

With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of gas pipelines that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen, which often cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk along the gas pipelines realistically and to suitably plan, and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment along the gas pipelines is proposed in this paper. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed. After the individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a natural gas pipeline in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis along the gas pipeline and urban land-use planning.     

从土地利用规划到国土空间规划 ——科学理性规划的视角

研究目的:深入探讨从土地利用规划到国土空间规划的重大变革,明晰国土空间规划的观念、体系、任务、方法和实施要求,以期对正在开展的国土空间规划编制工作提供参考。研究方法:文献研究法和比较分析法。研究结果:国土空间规划要着力强化可持续发展、高质量发展、以人民为中心的发展观念,在规划体系建设中处理好空间规划与发展规划,国家规划与地方规划,总体规划与专项规划、详细规划之间的关系,把重塑国土空间开发保护格局和推动自然资源节约集约利用和自然资源资产保值增值同时作为新时代规划的主要任务,全面推进空间规划基本理论、基础性方法和前沿性方法研究,创新规划实施的行政、法治、经济、社会和技术机制。研究结论:国土空间规划作为空间规划体制改革的产物,既要继承包括土地利用规划在内的原有空间规划的优点,也要注意克服其不足,根据国土空间治理现代化的战略需要,在规划观念、规划体系、规划实施等方面进行全方位、重构性变革,发展具有中国特色的空间规划理论和方法。     

Certain flexibilities in land-use plans Towards a method for assessing flexibility

The trade-off between flexibility and legal certainty is inherent in every planning system. This trade-off is especially apparent within a land-use plan. Flexibility and legal certainty are often seen as communicating vessels: the demise of one leads to an increase in the other. Within land-use plans, however, the connection between the two is more subtle. For a land-use plan, the choice between being specific or open, and rigid or adaptable, determine the amount of flexibility. With these choices a land-use plan can increase its flexibility without decreasing legal certainty. Within reason the legal certainty can even benefit from more flexibility. However, current academic literature lacks a structured way to analyse flexibility contained within a land-use plan. Such a method is necessary for analysing and comparing different land-use plans. This paper will provide such a method and analyse thirteen different land-use plans in the Netherlands on their flexibility. It will show that a structured method can prove to be useful for analysing and comparing different land-use plans. The research provides insight into the complex balance between flexibility and legal certainty and presents an assessment tool which can be used for further academic research.     

SEA making inroads in land-use planning in Brazil: The case of the Extreme South of Bahia with forestry and biofuels

In Brazil, incorporating the environmental dimension to the planning process is a challenging process. Planning has historically been carried without considering environmental protection concerns. The country's large development projects have engendered a discussion on the feasibility of these works given the conflicts with environmental policies. The strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is a tool that has the potential to integrate the sectoral, territorial and environmental perspectives to promote sustainable development, as shown by international experience. Its use has not yet been regulated in Brazil, only been voluntary initiatives, both public and private, have been implemented. This paper presents the structure and results of the SEA of the plans to expand silviculture of eucalyptus and biofuels in the Extreme South Region of Bahia state, in the Brazilian Northeast, in a context of sectoral planning dissociated from government guidelines for land use policy and environmental protection. It portrays a practical case of methodological proposal for the use of socio-environmental criteria to establish limits for land occupation by monocultures, for each of the municipalities of the study region, according to their specific climate, soil, relief and environmental preservation characteristics. Various alternatives were identified to ensure areas with greater productivity for small family farming and areas with potential for preservation. SEA helped to a better understanding of the effects of the expansion of the planting areas in each alternative, which was essential to help all stakeholders visualize the consequences of their strategies. Consequently, as results the SEA outlined a series of guidelines and restrictions for the various levels of government and the production sector. For instance, SEA suggested for Federal, State and Municipality governments that areas with better soil and climate conditions could be reserved for public policies to incentive the diversification of the uses of the territory, such as food production. SEA also suggests the adoption of incentive programs to establish multiple-use forests. The SEA recommended that the state government integrate its program for strengthening family agriculture with land-use planning criteria, based on cooperative systems The methodology employed has evidences to be replicable in other regions of Brazil and in developing countries.     

日本国土空间用途管制经验与启示

研究目的:系统梳理日本国土空间的用途类型以及管制措施,为中国国土空间的用途管制提供经验借鉴。研究方法:文献分析法和综合分析法。研究结果:(1)日本国土空间规划与法律体系具有权威性,为国土空间用途管制提供了立法支撑与制度保障;(2)日本国土空间用途管制各部门、各层级职权清晰,能够统一协调国土空间用途管制工作;(3)日本尊重国土空间使用类型的多样性,实施刚柔结合的用途管制制度;(4)日本重视国土空间规划监督管理,保证了规划的实施效力;(5)日本重视国土空间的系统性,保障用途管制的整体性。研究结论:日本的国土空间用途管制经验对中国有所启示,主要包括加强国土空间用途管制立法、完善国土空间规划协调机制、确立常态化的多维国土空间用途管制监管体系、构建刚柔结合的国土空间用途管制格局、提升国土空间管制体系的完整性和系统性等。     

Trade-off relationship between modern agriculture and biodiversity: Heavy consolidation work has a long-term negative impact on plant species diversity

Human-driven land-use changes often cause a decline in biodiversity. Although traditional agricultural practices maintained biodiversity at high levels, recent land-use changes may have negative consequences on species composition. In this study, we examined the hypothesis that land consolidation, which is a major recent land-use change in agricultural areas, decreases plant species diversity over the long term (the so-called negative legacy). To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationships between consolidated areas and the occurrence of threatened plant species across Japan and at the prefecture scale. Twenty-three threatened plant species were selected, all of which were formerly common. Our results show that areas containing records of threatened plant species rarely experienced consolidation at whole-country and prefectural scales. Breakdown analysis showed that unconsolidated agricultural areas contained significantly more threatened species than consolidated agricultural areas. These results suggest that threatened plant species require unconsolidated agricultural areas (i.e., these species could not grow in consolidated areas). Thus, we propose that consolidation history could be used as an indicator of the potential for biodiversity recovery. We also suggest that consolidated agricultural areas should be used for food production rather than for the restoration of biodiversity, for reasons of cost efficiency.     

Scenario farmland protection zoning based on production potential: A case study in China

Establishing farmland protection areas is an important measure for developing countries to protect limited farmland resources and guarantee food security. The general approaches lack the ability to simulate the farmlands’ production potential under different scenarios. This paper proposes a modified farmland protection zoning framework to demarcate farmland protection by coupling the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model with a state-of-the-art farmland protection zoning framework. The modified zoning framework was applied to China, a typical fast developing country. The results indicated that the average potential production of the entire country would increase by 2.96 % in the coming decade if the irrigation efficiency criteria of 55 % established by the National Program for Agricultural Water Conservation (2012–2020) can be fulfilled. Furthermore, the farmland protection area could also be reduced by 2.91 % (2.96 million ha) while the total production potential of the protected areas would remain unchanged. This study contributes two main aspects: (1) The AEZ model was used as a replacement for the general land-use suitability analysis (LUSA) or multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) based farmland assessment models in a farmland zoning framework, which can accurately assess the production potential of the farmland protection demarcation. (2) This farmland protection zoning approach can analyze and simulate a wide range of scenarios on the effect of environmental factors (climate, soil, terrain, etc.) and human production factors (irrigation condition, cropping system, etc.).     

Accounting for farmers’ production responses to environmental restrictions within landscape planning

Environmental planning aims to safeguard and foster the ecological functionality of agricultural landscapes. In order to reach a sustainable development of agricultural landscapes, in addition to ecological objectives socio-economic ones also need to be considered. In this context, the authors draw attention to three points. First, whenever ecologically sensitive areas (“ecological sites”) are used for agricultural production, it is necessary to take account of the fact that farmers tend to adapt to environmental requirements by production responses outside the ecological site itself. Second, in order to identify the socially most “desirable” land-use responses it is necessary to supplement the above-mentioned environmental objectives by socio-economic ones. Third, when choosing an appropriate model for such multi-criteria decision analysis, the question of substitutability between criteria is of utmost importance. The paper discusses the above-mentioned issues against the background of a case study of environmental planning for an ecologically very valuable agricultural landscape in Germany, the Bayerisches Donauried. Two models of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are applied, one based on the “single synthesizing criterion” method, and the other one based on the “synthesis by outranking” method. The models serve to evaluate four different land-use options, using criteria mainly derived from landscape functions and weights gained from interviews with major stakeholders. The paper presents the models’ results concerning the ranking of the different land-use options and discusses the implications for agri-environmental policies and rural development planning.     

Assessment of regulation of legal relations of territorial planning: A case study in Lithuania

Land management is inevitably linked to the regulation of activities of its proprietor or operator stipulated by legislation and documents of territorial planning. In Lithuania, as in many European countries, territorial planning is a key measure for the formation of landscape and the alteration of its elements. With the help of territorial planning documents, governing authorities has the opportunity to orderly regulate the layout of long-term stable elements of landscape and the sustainable territorial development. However, in comparison with other European Union (hereinafter – EU) countries, territorial planning system valid in Lithuania until January 1, 2014 is still “young” and having specific features with former countries of the Soviet bloc legal regulation. The system did not provided a consistent and sustainable territorial development mechanism: there was the lack of measures allowing to manage the development processes of residential areas and implementation of territorial planning documents (especially the municipal master plans) solutions for the creation of a harmonious functional spatial system. The aim of the present paper is to assess the regulation of legal relations of territorial planning in Lithuania and the EU member states. The assessment summarizes processes of the formation of a landscape during the territorial planning, introduces new opportunities to more accurately predict the results of the current process of landscape planning, and highlights legal and sustainable elements of territorial planning system optimization. As can be seen from the assessment carried out, one of the most important territorial planning objectives was and still remains the balance of mutual relations (hierarchy of plans) of territorial planning documents in shaping the cultural landscape to ensure the rational distribution of the land fund, combining a variety of activities as well as often different land users’ and public interests. Therefore, the implementation of the territorial planning reform of Lithuania capacitates for the transition to an integrated territorial planning, ensuring sustainable development.     

农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款的实践与思考——以黑龙江省克山县为例

农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款是解决农民融资贷款缺乏有效抵押物、破解农民贷款难题的有效手段。2014年中央一号文件首次提出"在落实农村土地集体所有权的基础上,稳定农户承包权、放活土地经营权,允许承包土地经营权向金融机构贷款"。国务院下发了《关于金融服务"三农"发展的若干意见》,进一步细化和明确了鼓励发展农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款的一揽子政策措施。黑龙江省克山县作为国家级农村改革试验区从2010年起探索和实践了农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款,形成了一整套土地承包经营权抵押贷款的发展机制、管理模式和配套政策,打破了农贷资金"五户联保"等旧有的资金贷款模式,实现了银行、农民、新型经营主体的互利双赢。农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款问题是目前的热门课题,作者以黑龙江省克山县为例,剖析了农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款的一些做法、模式、问题,并针对问题提出了完善建议。论文对各地正在开展的农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款工作的示范推广具有一定的借鉴意义。     

郑州市典型产业用地效益与碳排放强度的关系研究——基于181家企业的调查

研究目的:从企业视角探讨用地效益与碳排放强度的关系,并提出低碳、集约的产业用地方式和发展模式。研究方法:基于郑州市2012—2015年181家典型企业的调研数据,运用多因素综合评价法和Tapio脱钩模型等方法分析不同产业用地效益和碳排放强度的关系。研究结果:(1)产业用地效益水平整体不高且行业差异明显,其中,电力、热力生产和供应业用地效益水平最低,烟草制品业用地效益水平最高;(2)大多数产业碳排放强度小于0.1 t/m2,且年际变化波动较小,碳排放强度最大的是电力、热力生产和供应业,最小的是汽车制造业;(3)不同产业用地效益和碳排放强度的相关性差异明显,且两者间的脱钩状态随时间波动较大,2012—2015年以扩张负脱钩和强脱钩为主。其中,农副食品加工业、酒、饮料和精制茶制造业等产业为扩张负脱钩;煤炭开采和洗选业、食品制造业等产业为强脱钩。研究结论:不同产业用地效益和碳排放强度的相关性和脱钩状态差异明显,建议未来应采取差别化的发展模式和策略,比如农副食品加工业、酒、饮料和精制茶制造业等产业应重点通过提高能源效率降低碳排放,而煤炭开采和洗选业、食品制造业等产业则应重点通过土地集约利用降低碳排放强度。