Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) is a virtual certainty. Much less certain is the timing of their introduction and how rapid the transition to full automation will be. Various governments are already working to facilitate this shift by, for example, amending and elaborating regulations to support the introduction of AVs, or supporting tests in different urban environments. Meanwhile, urban and regional planners and decision-makers are still grappling with the uncertainties and differing opinions about the possible impacts of AVs on land-use changes and location choices, particularly in relation to the space available for vehicles, both moving (i.e. roadspace) and stationary (i.e. parking space). This paper uses a backcasting approach to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city. These policy measures primarily relate to the reuse and reallocation of parking and roadspace. Two strategic decisions are found to be essential to meet the major goals of sustainable and liveable cities: a clear commitment to a shared mobility and the delimitation of Core Attractive Mixed-use Spaces (CAMS). In order to deliver these desired urbanisation patterns, a set of three policy paths, involving eight policy packages, is proposed for the next 20–30 years. This article provides urban and regional decision-makers with examples of interventions that can be implemented beyond and during the implementation of AVs.     

Parking futures: Shared automated vehicles and parking demand reduction trajectories in Atlanta

The coming of automated vehicles (AVs) and Mobility-on-Demand (MoD services) is expected to reduce urban parking demand and correspondingly alter the urban parking landscape in a significant way. Multiple modeling efforts have already demonstrated that Shared AVs (SAVs) have promising potential to decrease urban parking demand. However, previous studies have only examined SAV parking demand at one point in time, with various market penetrations. It remains unclear what the demand reduction trajectory will be like during the transition period when there is a mix of SAVs, Privately-Owned AVs (PAVs), Shared Conventional Vehicles (SCVs), and Conventional Private Vehicles (CPVs). This study fills this gap by developing an agent-based simulation model to examine the spatially and temporally explicit parking reduction trends with mixed travel modes from 2020–2040. The results indicate that in the most optimal AV and MoD adoption scenario, the parking demand will decrease by over 20% after 2030, especially in core urban areas. Meanwhile, the parking demand in residential zones may double, which could lead to transportation equity concerns. Additionally, parking relocation may also induce environmental issues by generating a considerable amount of empty Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). To reap the benefits brought by AVs and MoD systems and to mitigate the accompanying social and environmental issues, our results suggest that proactive policymakers in the next decade will need to modify land use regulations for both new developments and existing parking infrastructure in commercial and residential zones, as well as update travel demand management policies.     

The Edmonton-Calgary corridor: Simulating future land cover change under potential government intervention

The region connecting Edmonton and Calgary, the two largest cities in Alberta, contains rich agricultural land and is one of the most rapidly changing areas in the province. There is little legislation to restrict urban sprawl or adequately protect agricultural land or native grasslands, and there has been little research to predict future alteration. The main study objectives are, therefore, to assess historical changes in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor from 1984 to 2013 and simulate the future landscape change to 2022 under potential government intervention scenarios. Satellite imagery from Landsat, used in conjunction with biogeophysical variables, was used to create a history of cover in the Edmonton-Calgary area. This history of the environment can be used as a baseline to project changes into the future. Testing different legislative scenarios under two major branches of modifying rates of change or locations of change can be used to identify effective policies for limiting damage to the environment while still allowing for urban growth. Five scenarios were created for this purpose: (1) business as usual, (2) increased rate of urban expansion, (3) no urban expansion, (4) implementation of greenbelts around urban areas, (5) protection of the best agricultural land. This study finds that over the past 30 years, urban area has nearly doubled in size, targeting predominately farmland, especially due to an increase in rural subdivisions. Each scenario impacts growth differently, however, greenbelts and the no expansion model decease growth the most, while the agricultural protection is comparable to the business as usual scenario.     

Assessing economic instruments to steer urban residential sprawl,using a hedonic pricing simulation modelling approach

Over the past centuries, cities have undergone major transformations that led to global urbanization. One of the phenomena emerging from urbanization is urban sprawl, defined as the uncontrolled spread of cities into undeveloped areas. The decrease in housing prices and commuting costs as well as the failure to internalize the real costs associated with natural land, led to households moving-out into the urban fringe – resulting in fragmented, low-density residential development patterns that has multiple negative impacts. Awareness for this problem has fed the need for the implementation of effective policies against urban residential sprawl – a subject that has received considerable attention in literature, albeit little attention has been given to economic incentive instruments. Hence, the objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of different economic instruments in steering urban residential sprawl – assessing property taxes, land taxes and public transport subsidies. To this end, the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) model is used and adapted, and a case study is provided for the medium-sized City of Aveiro in central Portugal. Results show that a flat property tax and a public transport subsidy for low and middle-income households are the most efficient instruments, leading to a decrease in urban residential area, living space and housing quantity as well as an increase in real estate values. On the other hand, a land tax results in insignificant changes in urban residential development patterns.     

Coastal areas and climate change: A decision support tool for implementing adaptation measures

Climate change will be one of the main global challenges in the future. In this context cities play a key role. If, on the one hand, cities cause climate change, on the other hand, they are the places where climate change impacts are most evident, as it deeply affects the quality of life of its inhabitants. Climate change impacts are particularly relevant for coastal areas. These are characterized by a higher concentration of buildings and people in comparison to inland areas. In particular, one of the forecasted effects of climate change in these areas is the increase in coastal flooding due to rising sea levels and storm surges. The implementation of strategies and actions for the adaptation of urban areas to the impacts of coastal flooding is essential to ensure the liveability of coastal communities. Urban planning plays a key role in cities’ adaptation. However, even though the interest in this topic has been increasing, operative support and tools for planning urban adaptation in cities are in short supply, especially in coastal cities. In light of this, it has become necessary to focus on the definition of new tools responding to the needs of urban planning.Based on these observations, this paper, starting from the existing literature on coastal vulnerability indices, has developed a new index: the Coastal Resilience Index (CoRI). Thanks to the CoRI and to the use of technological innovations applied to urban planning (in particular, Geographic Information Systems), a decision support tool has been developed to identify adaptation measures aiming to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding, caused by rising sea levels and storm surges.     

The elephant in the scheme: Planning for and around car parking in Melbourne, 1929–2016

A relatively recent body of literature has looked critically at the role of car parking in urban areas, showing that a significant determinant of the extent of parking space is the planning system. Of particular importance are statutory minimum off-street parking requirements for new developments. If parking and parking policies are significant to urban outcomes, one question that follows is − how active a role (if any) has strategic urban planning had in car parking? In this paper we ask if, and in what ways, car parking has been a stated strategic planning interest over the course of nearly a century of planning for one city − Melbourne, Australia. Our approach has three parts: a content analysis of strategic planning documents over time; a corresponding analysis of statutory policies on the ground; and reflection on what this means for the relationships between strategy and policy.We find that extensive car parking, treated as a public good, was once specifically planned as a critical component of facilitating a car-based city. We show that car parking has receded as a strategic policy issue over time, but that statutory minimum parking requirements introduced in the 1950s continue to be entrenched. Even with more recent strategic plans seeking to curtail car use and increase urban densities, minimum parking policies originally introduced to achieve the opposite effects have remained largely intact. We argue that parking has a significant role in urban form but is, in our case study city, illustrative of gaps between strategic and statutory planning, and between planning practice and research. Whereas post-war planning instigated policy approaches to car parking as a means of planning for car use, strategic planning in Melbourne now plans around parking − the elephant in the scheme. The findings have implications for other intensifying cities with a history of minimum parking policies; as well as for cities now undergoing rapid motorisation.     

Public policy change and its impact on urban expansion: An evaluation of 265 cities in China

Public policies play a vital role in shaping our cities. However, the impact of public policies on the spatial expansion of urban areas needs to be better understood in order to achieve better policy outcomes. During the period of China’s economic reform, the central government of China has made many changes in three sets of public policies—regional development policies, the household registration (hukou) system, and urban land and housing market policies—to promote coordinated development of small, medium and large cities. This study aims to examine the effects of these public policy changes on urban expansion across 265 Chinese cities at or above prefecture level. We first quantify the spatial patterns of urban areas and evaluate the extent of urban sprawl of the 265 cities from 1995 to 2015 using multi-temporal land cover data. These cities are classified into six categories according to a city tier system used in China. Through a set of individual fixed-effects models, we then explore how changes in the three sets of policies have influenced urban expansion differently across different-tier cities. Results show that sprawling patterns of urban expansion, which have been more prominent in small and medium sized cities since 2000, are associated with shifts in policies to support stronger economic and population growth as well as real estate development. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to take a holistic approach by considering the size of cities together with their social, environmental, and economic characteristics in order to minimise inequality and achieve coordinated urban development goals.     

Measuring urban sprawl and exploring the role planning plays: A shanghai case study

Measuring the degree of urban sprawl largely depends on the local context and available data. This research establishes a multidimensional index which combines city expansion, urban compactness and urban form to measure sprawl. Urban planning, as part of the state-led growth approach, has exerted dramatic impact on city growth in China. Recent studies have discussed the role of planning in city growth. However, measuring the impact of planning on sprawl, has not been conducted. Taking Shanghai as a case study, this paper builds a multidimensional index to measure the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban sprawl in Shanghai from 1990 to 2010. It finds that urban sprawl was more serious in 2000s than in the 1990s, and the sprawl also presents spatial heterogeneity within different areas of the city. While quantifying the role of planning in urban sprawl, this study adopts the Geo-Detector based on spatial variation analysis of the geographical strata in order to assess the impact of planning on urban sprawl. It finds that planning is strongly correlated with urban sprawl, in other words, urban sprawl is kind of a "planned sprawl" in Shanghai. The research concludes with future planning policies necessary for a more sustainable and compact development pattern.     

区域性中心城市蔓延趋势测度与控制策略 ——以山东省临沂市为例

研究目的:提出区域性中心城市蔓延趋势测度方法和蔓延控制策略。研究方法:维度分析法与实证分析法。研究结果:(1)城市蔓延是多维度现象,要综合运用单一维度测度和综合维度测度两种方法,才能全面认识和测度城市的蔓延程度;(2)临沂市城市蔓延特征总体呈现加重趋势,城市去中心度加重,城市的土地利用混合度逐渐降低,城市通达度逐渐增强,城市开敞空间逐渐减少;(3)城市蔓延是多维度共同作用的结果,要根本改变城市蔓延趋势,需要从不同维度进行综合施策。研究结论:在区域性中心城市成为城市建设用地扩展重点调控的大背景下,有效防控城市蔓延,需要科学编制区域性中心城市发展规划,并依据相关指标的测度结果,系统实施相应的城市蔓延控制策略。     

The impacts of population and agglomeration development on land use intensity: New evidence behind urbanization in China

The impacts of population growth and agglomeration development on urbanization are complex. They cannot be effectively disentangled by simple fixed-effect regression analyses. This study introduces the land use intensity (LUI) metric to measure urbanization, and further applies quantile and threshold regression models to examine the impacts of population (POP) and agglomeration development (AGD) on land use intensity using a sample of 297 Chinese cities. The results reveal the heterogeneous effects that POP and AGD have on LUI. Variation is also observed in the effects of POP and AGD on LUI by POP/AGD intervals. As POP increases, its pressure on LUI increases. In contrast, the accumulative effects of development are beneficial in restraining overdevelopment of land resources within a specific range. The findings suggest that understanding complex human and development effects provides valuable insights, references, and implications for urban development and land use policies, which can guide cities with greater potential land development space in reducing the risk of unsustainable urbanization. Policies are recommended for ecological construction, city grouping, and sustainable land use.     

城市产城融合发展分析

分析我国现有30个主要城市的产城融合度发展状况,得出各城市发展特色及不足,并提出城市产城融合发展的重要影响因素。通过运用熵值法构建合理的指标体系来分析30个我国主要城市的产城融合发展耦合度状况。结果表明目前我国30个主要城市中,产城协调度发展较好的是一些东部沿海地区,而大多数城市水平则处于初级或中级协调阶段,部分偏远内陆地区城市处于勉强协调或失调状态。大部分城市的发展并没能有效地将产业与城建有效结合起来,未来的城市发展要继续加强产业规模及联系,也要围绕人群流向不断优化城市建设。     

Exploring the influence of urban form on land-use efficiency from a spatiotemporal heterogeneity perspective: Evidence from 336 Chinese cities

Effective land-use is a prerequisite for sustainable urbanization. Land-use efficiency is intimately related to factors such as economic growth and industrial policies; however, limited studies focus on the spatial effects of urban form on land-use efficiency. Our empirical analysis includes 336 Chinese prefecture-level cities located in 31 provinces and four regions. We use five landscape metrics (patch density, mean patch size, edge density, mean shape index and patch cohesion index) to characterize urban form. Overall, China’s urban form metrics demonstrate significant regional differences from 2000 to 2015. Furthermore, land-use efficiency also demonstrates significant regional disparities. We prove the importance of the spatial effects of urban form on land-use efficiency using spatial regression models. Moreover, the impact of urban form metrics on land-use efficiency is sensitive to regional heterogeneity and city sizes. An urban form characterized by high patch density and large urban patch size is not conducive to increases in land-use efficiency in small cities although it is conducive to such increases in large cities. This research facilitates policymaking in the areas of spatial regulation and spatial planning in connection with national land-use.     

How do centrality,population growth and urban sprawl impact farmland conversion in Norway?

A strong link has been observed between urbanization processes and conversions of farmland to built-up land. Most previous research has addressed such conversion of farmland in relation to the expansion of larger cities. However, broader analysis of both rural and central areas is needed to increase the empirical basis for these claims. Based on GIS analysis of farmland conversions, this paper aims to expand our understanding of how urban sprawl affects conversion of farmland. We find that most farmland in Norway is converted to built-up areas in relation to existing urban settlement areas. In line with population growth, urban areas in the most central municipalities experience the most significant urban sprawl and loss of farmland. Moreover, the remaining farmland is located in the same areas that already have converted the most. These areas also experience significant pressure for continued land take. Assuming current trends continue, future urban sprawl will pose great challenges for the preservation of farmland in land-use planning. New research and policies are required to handle these challenges more effectively.     

Reterritorialization practices and strategies of campesinos in the urban frontier of Bogotá, Colombia

Much of the research on urbanization has focused on how rural populations move to cities for work opportunities. This paper takes a different perspective on the relations between rural populations and urbanization. The livelihoods of rural dwellers on the outskirts of the city of Bogotá in Colombia are increasingly affected by the expansion of urban activities and infrastructure. Therefore, urbanization takes place in the areas of residence of the rural populations; these people do not migrate to the city but, rather, the city migrates to them. Consequently, rural ways of life face growing competition from the production of commodities and services on the urban-rural fringe, including quarrying and landfills serving the needs of industries and urban populations. We explore how rural populations and their livelihoods have transformed as a response to these urban dynamics and the expansion of the city. We focus on the strategies that the rural populations employ to deal with the physical and socio-ecological impacts of this change. The defense of peri-urban livelihoods through these strategies is simultaneously social and spatial and has been partially successful. However, increasing social and environmental inequality, including worsening access to land, water and vital ecological functions, tends to lead to a general reduction in the quality of life in the urban frontier.     

浙江省城市土地利用集约化与生态化协调性评价

研究目的:分析城市土地利用集约化与生态化协调性的内涵及机理,为城市土地合理利用与可持续发展提供政策建议。研究方法:典型相关分析、协调性评价模型。研究结果:通过构建协调性评价模型,发现全省城市土地利用集约化和生态化水平总体呈现上升趋势,但在2013年后土地利用生态化水平滞后于集约化水平;11个城市各时序阶段上的空间异质性明显,2016年处于协调发展状态的占82%,舟山市的协调发展度全省最高为0.83。研究结论:浙江省城市土地政策的制定要兼顾土地利用的集约化与生态化特征,严控城市建设用地无序扩张,还要研究各城市的经济发展阶段和资源禀赋情况,重视城市土地利用政策的差异性。     

长株潭城市群空间发展特征及管治对策

结合长株潭城市群社会经济发展情况,文章从空间结构、城镇体系规模和各城市空间联系三个方面对研究区域空间发展展开分析.结果发现长株潭城市群空间发展存在:①长沙市首位度低;②区域"轴-圈层"辐射力量薄弱;③城镇体系规模分布呈现平衡特征;④城市间空间联系性不强等问题.最后借鉴国内外空间管治研究现状,提出从空间管治理念入手,优化...     

浅析城市经营理念下的城市规划管理

伴随着我国经济体制向市场体制转变和城市的发展,在编制城市规划过程中引入"经济学"、"经营"的思想与理念已日显其迫切与必要.为解决这一问题,人们将市场经济的理念导入到城市的发展、建设、管理中来,创造性地提出"城市经营"的理念.各级政府在进行城市规划管理的过程中要以科学发展观为指导,考虑到人的发展和需要,促进城市的各项事业全面、协调、可持续的发展.     

Valuing ecosystem services of urban forests and open spaces: application of the SEEA framework in Australia*

Around two‐thirds of the global population will live in cities by 2050 requiring large urban infrastructure development. Decision‐makers and planners usually rely on standard economic accounting methods for urban planning and investments on infrastructure assets. However, standard methods fail to account for the ecosystem services benefits that living infrastructure (e.g. urban forests, open spaces) provides to city dwellers. This could generate socially inefficient configurations of urban spaces and compromise the achievement of long‐term urban sustainability targets. In this analysis, we applied a stochastic whole‐of‐life benefit–cost analysis following the System of Environmental‐Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework to compare alternative long‐term management strategies for living infrastructure in Canberra, Australia. Spatially explicit data, i‐Tree Eco and benefit transfer methods were used to estimate the stocks and flows ecosystem services benefits of urban forests and irrigated open spaces from 2018 to 2070. Our analysis suggests that a ’30 per cent canopy cover expansion’ scenario has the highest benefit–cost ratio, while the business as usual scenario, where a net loss of 400 trees is expected per year, offers the lowest benefit–cost ratio. Scenarios of expanding versus not expanding irrigated open spaces in the future both result in a benefit–cost ratio of approximately two.     

太仓市区城镇用地扩展合理规模计量研究

研究目的：探讨规划目标年城镇用地合理规模及其测算方法,为经济发展与耕地保护“两难”问题的解决提供依据。研究方法：采用C-D生产函数及成本效益曲线分析城镇用地合理规模条件,进而通过加权最小二乘法估计城镇用地合理规模测算模型,并结合情景分析法测算不同经济发展条件下规划目标年城镇用地合理规模。研究结果：在考虑生态服务价值时,社会经济中速发展下太仓市区2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模分别为4805.61 hm2 和5495.88 hm2 ,此情景较为合理;而高速经济发展下2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模为5133.36 hm2 和6161.38 hm2 ; 如果不考虑生态服务价值,则在中速发展时2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模为5907.38 hm2 和6756.93 hm2。研究结论：通过经济计量模型及情景分析法等可以确定未来一定社会经济发展情景下不同年份的城镇用地合理规模。