环境资源约束下环渤海经济圈经济增长绩效测度——基于DEA-面板回归模型的实证研究

论文以环渤海经济圈为例,采用DEA-Malmquist模型对环境资源约束下环渤海经济增长绩效进行研究,并进一步利用面板回归模型,对该地区全要素生产率的影响因素进行了实证分析。环境资源约束下,环渤海经济圈总体以及圈内各省市的全要素生产率都大于1,表明经济发展方式都都有一定程度的转变。不同的经济基础、地区工业结构以及对外开放程度会影响地区经济发展速度,同时能源利用和环境污染治理对经济增长绩效有显著负向影响。     

Determinants of efficiency of vegetable production in smallholder farms: The case of Ethiopia

Improving production efficiency remains as a plausible means of increasing productivity when resource reallocation, and the creation and adoption of new technologies are limited. Technical, allocative and economic efficiencies are derived from a sample of smallholder vegetable farmers in Ethiopia using parametric and non-parametric methods. The results reveal that the two methods yield similar estimates and the existence of substantial inefficiencies in production as well as efficiency differentials among farmers. The analysis of the determinants of efficiency of vegetable production using regression models show that low asset ownership, illiteracy, large family size, inadequate extension contacts, small farm size, age, low off/non-farm income and high consumer spending are the major socio-economic factors causing inefficiency of vegetable production in the study areas. A comparison of the market-driven (vegetables) with the whole-farm (crops and livestock) production efficiency indicates that lower economic efficiency scores for the former might be related to the limited access to capital markets, high consumer spending, and large family size.     

Promoting smallholder seed enterprises: quality seed production of rice,maize, sorghum and millet in northern Cameroon

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) conducted two projects in Cameroon on strengthening rice, and sorghum, maize and millet seed production by smallholder seed enterprises (SSEs). Farmer groups (respectively, 25 SSEs and 114 SSEs) were formed or strengthened and trained. Sixty-six selected lead farmers were trained on the administering and managing of revolving funds. The groups were then linked to the Extension Service (for continuous technical advice), Agriculture Research for Development Institution (continuous supply of needed seed), National Seed Service (seed certification) and to financial institutions (financial support). The results obtained showed that 60 and 59.6 per cent, respectively, of the groups sustained their activities two to three years after the projects ended. Total certified rice seed produced increased to 800 tonnes (t) against 267t at the beginning. For the other cereal project, the total certified seed produced was 719.2t against 497t at its beginning. The use of quality seed rice together with good agronomic practices increased yields (up to 8.0t/ha against a scant 2t/ha before). All interviewed farmers stressed that the seed business was profitable and helped achieve higher living standards and diversify their activities. Seasonal incomes were more than US$1,783.31. Finally, both FAO projects helped generate farmers' income to about US$2,114.871, produced 447,954t of cereal grain and thus improved food security and alleviated poverty. The Cameroonian success could be repeated elsewhere.     

Decomposition of output growth in the Tunisian olive-growing sector: A frontier production function approach

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relative contribution of technical efficiency, technological change, and increased input use to the output growth of the Tunisian olive oil growing farms, using a stochastic frontier production function approach applied to panel data for the period 1995-1997. The proposed methodology is based on the use of a flexible translog functional form. Results indicate that technical efficiency of production in the sample of olive producing farms investigated ranges from a minimum of 24.8% to a maximum of 84.6% with an average technical efficiency estimate of 48.5%. This suggests that olive producers may increase their production by as much as 51.5% through more efficient use of production inputs. Further, the production is characterized by decreasing returns to scale, which on average was 0.8. Finally, investigation of the sources of production growth reveals that the contribution of conventional inputs (labor, in particular) and technical change are found to be the main source of that growth, since total factor productivity increased during the study period, but at a slowing rate.     

Towards productive landscapes: Trade-offs in tree-cover and income across a matrix of smallholder agricultural land-use systems

One of the main causes of tropical forest loss is conversion to agriculture, which is constantly increasing as a dominant land cover in the tropics. The loss of forests greatly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper assesses the economic return from increasing tree cover in agricultural landscapes in two tropical locations, West Java, Indonesia and eastern Bangladesh. Agroforestry systems are compared with subsistence seasonal food-crop-based agricultural systems. Data were collected through rapid rural appraisal, field observation, focus groups and semi-structured interviews of farm households. The inclusion of agroforestry tree crops in seasonal agriculture improved the systems’ overall economic performance (net present value), even when it reduced understorey crop production. However, seasonal agriculture has higher income per unit of land area used for crop cultivation compared with the tree establishment and development phase of agroforestry farms. Thus, there is a trade-off between short-term loss of agricultural income and longer-term economic gain from planting trees in farmland. For resource-poor farmers to implement this change, institutional support is needed to improve their knowledge and skills with this unfamiliar form of land management, sufficient capital for the initial investment, and an increase in the security of land tenure.     

Decision-making in soil conservation: application of a behavioral model to potato farmers in Sri Lanka

Soil erosion is one of the most devastating problems in the upper watershed areas in Sri Lanka. Erosion-prone cultivation of vegetables (especially potatoes) on steep slopes, without soil conservation measures, has become a major problem in the recent past. Soil erosion has significant impacts on on-farm as well as off-farm activities. Although various institutions have launched programs to introduce soil conservation techniques, these have not yielded expected results mainly due to a lack of understanding of the potato farmers’ behavior on investment decisions on soil conservation. Hence the conceptual model on investment decisions on soil conservation was tested in this paper. The analytical results of the generalized least square model indicated the importance of personal and economic, as well as institutional, factors in decision-making in soil conservation. Therefore, obtaining farmer adoption of erosion-control practices will require the use of various implementation tools such as education, subsidies, and technical assistance. Low willingness to invest in soil conservation indicated the necessity for public installation of conservation structures if they are to be widely used in potato farmlands in the upper watersheds in Sri Lanka.     

Determinants, differentiation, and development of short-term marginal costs in dairy production: an empirical analysis for selected regions of the EU

This work provides evidence on the determinants, cost differentiation, and development of short‐term marginal costs of dairy farms in important production regions of the European Union. The empirical study is based on the estimation of multi‐input multi‐output Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost functions using an unbalanced panel data set of the European Farm Accountancy Data Network. The results show considerable regional differences in the impact of the outputs, input prices, and fixed factors on marginal costs. Strong evidence can be found that marginal costs decrease over time and is further underlined by the development of derived regional aggregated short‐term supply curves. Marginal cost elasticities and correlation coefficients validate the hypotheses that a high degree of farm specialization, large milk output, and low milk prices are associated with lower marginal costs. Furthermore, the marginal cost spread in the data sample is analyzed. We show that milk output, milk yield, herd size, labor input, and fodder production can be attributed to significant marginal cost differentiation of farms, whereas for crop and animal output, grassland, stock of other animals, and depreciation only minor differentiation can be found.     

Impact of treadle pump irrigation technology on smallholder poverty and food security in Malawi: a case study of Blantyre and Mchinji districts

The Malawi Government has intensified the use of treadle pump irrigation technology in an attempt to increase agricultural production and also to enrich the livelihoods of resource-poor farmers. As a result, the treadle pump is gaining in popularity among smallholder farmers throughout the country. This study was conducted in the districts of Blantyre in the Southern Region and Mchinji in the Central Region of Malawi. A total of 50 treadle pump and 50 non-treadle pump farmers were interviewed in each district to assess the impact of treadle pump irrigation technology with regard to food security and poverty. Gross margin analysis showed that adopters of the technology had higher net farm incomes per hectare (NFIs/ha) than non-adopters per year. In Blantyre, NFI/ha value for adopters was MK122,855 (US$1007) compared with MK15,987 (US$131) for non-adopters under irrigation conditions. Similar results were found in Mchinji with MK51,858 (US$425) and MK16,090 (US$132) for adopters and non-adopters, respectively. Likewise, under rain-fed conditions, adopters had higher NFIs/ha than non-adopters: in Blantyre, the respective NFIs were MK19,497 (US$152) and MK3344 (US$27), whereas in Mchinji the respective values were MK16,896 (US$138) and MK10,084 (US$83). Furthermore, the well-being measurements and analyses of poverty revealed a higher poverty level among non-adopters compared with adopters. The former also had a greater relative risk of falling into deeper poverty than the latter. Transition matrices depicting movement in and out of poverty showed that from 2004 to 2005, some poor adopters moved out of poverty while some non-adopters dropped from being non-poor to poor. No adopter moved from non-poor to poor. From the results, it is concluded that the Government of Malawi should be urged to increase the availability of this kind of technology to the market at a reduced cost by offering tax incentives to local manufacturers and by using an input voucher system to subsidize qualified poor smallholder farmers.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations: An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos,Greece

Agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as two of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving human-environment dynamics that have sustained environmental benefits through time. Cultural and behavioral motives are important root influences to such landscape transitions, yet efforts to address landscape degradation are often hampered by a failure to account for the heterogeneous decision-making nature of its agents of change and the inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems. Novel techniques are required to further disentangle responses to multi-level drivers and discuss alternative landscape development trajectories. Agent-based models constructed by means of participatory approaches present increasingly applied tools in this context. This study sought to capture and model the future perspectives emerging from presently occurring farming discourses in the region of Gera (Lesvos, Greece), characterized by persistent abandonment of its traditionally managed olive plantations. We constructed an agent-based model iteratively in collaboration with the local farming community and experts in landscape research. Empirical findings informed the model through the construction of a farmer typology, revealing a heavy reliance of the farming community upon sectorial profitability, prevalent cultural farming motives and emerging landscape initiatives. The model examined the de-coupled role of agricultural profitability and landscapes initiatives in shaping the behavior of land managers, mapping alternative landscape futures over a period of 25 years. Model results illustrate both increased profitability and action by landscape initiatives are required to reverse abandonment trends within the simulated time frame. The hypothesized ability of landscape initiatives to maintain and promote a cultural drive amongst adhering farmers is crucial for securing behavioral transformations towards professionalism. This study confirmed agent-based modelling to be intuitively received by stakeholders who significantly contributed to model structure refinement and the rejection of a status quo scenario.     

The tilling of land in a changing climate: Empirical evidence from the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Empirical studies point to reduced tillage as a means to increase yields and reverse land degradation. A relatively neglected avenue of research concerns why farmers increase tillage frequencies. Using household-plot level panel data from the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, this article applies a random effects ordered probit endogenous switching regression model to empirically investigate the impact of weather events and other conditioning factors on farmers’ choice of tillage intensity and the effect of changing tillage frequencies on differences in farm returns. Results indicate that, while low frequency tillage is more likely in drier areas, plot-level shocks (such as pests and diseases) are key variables in the choice of high-frequency tillage. Adoption of a low-till approach leads to increasing farm returns in low-moisture areas but high-frequency tillage provides higher returns in high-rainfall areas. Understanding how farmers’ tillage options correlate with climatic conditions and farm economies is salient for developing effective adaptation and mitigation plans.     

The effects of expenditure growth and urbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note on animal products

Consumption functions for total animal-derived food products were estimated for six East Asian countries. Incorporation of urbanisation was found to make a significant contribution to the functions. The urbanisation elasticities were always positive, indicating that the process of urbanisation had a positive effect on the demand for animal food products. The expenditure elasticities were also positive, but often less than they would be if estimated from consumption functions that excluded the effects of urbanisation. Thus, projections of consumption that ignore the influence of urbanisation may be biased.     

Harnessing sustainability,resilience and productivity through conservation agriculture: the case of likoti in Lesotho

Subsistence farmers in Lesotho have been able to boost agricultural yields and increase food production by adopting conservation agriculture. The practice, locally known as likoti, also contributes to combating soil erosion and to enhancing fertility. The socio-economic and environmental benefits help poor households to rehabilitate and strengthen their livelihood capital base and ultimately help rural communities to build system resilience in the face of widespread poverty and increasing vulnerability that affect the country. This paper discusses the major advantages associated with the spread of likoti. By drawing on primary data collected by FAO-Lesotho, it enquires into the determinants of adoption, thereby highlighting constraints and options for future up-scaling. The results show that attending appropriate training is a crucial prerequisite for the correct adoption of likoti. However, training is more effective when trainers pursue true participation and when social capital among farmers is stronger. Further important determinants of adoption are the level of education and the economic incentives provided to vulnerable households. Stronger policy and institutional support in all these areas would thus help address the cultural and resource constraints that limit the full potential of likoti to be harnessed and ultimately hinder its further spread throughout the country.     

Induced innovation and land degradation: Results from a bioeconomic model of a village in West Africa

This paper introduces a modeling method which simulates a village's response to population and market pressure. The method combines a recursive and dynamic linear programming model with a biophysical model of soil condition and plant growth that predicts yields and land degradation for different type of land, land use and cropping patterns. The linear programming model simulates farmers' plans aggregated at the village level under constraints of risk aversion, food consumption, land area, soil fertility, soil depth, labor and cash availability. Detailed agroecological factors determine Ihe main processes of land degradation. A large number of technological alternatives, representing different degrees of labor and/or land-saving techniques available in the study areas, are introduced, taking into account their respective constraints, costs and advantages. The method has been calibrated for a village located in the sub-humid region of Burkina Faso. Several simulations are carried out to the Year 2030. The results show that population pressure leads to intensification and investment in land conservation practices out not necessarily to better farm incomes. Increasing market opportunities can play a more positive role in boosting productivity, but for the next decades the best way to increase production per farmer is to let farmers migrate from the high-population-density areas to the low-population-density areas because, under the current economic conditions of most Sahelian countries, intensification per hectare is stil more expensive than the fallow system.     

煤矿安全生产监督管理工作中的技术手段——图像监控系统在煤矿安全监管中的应用

近年来,煤炭生产事故频发,安全生产问题日益突出。加强安全生产监督,理应充分发挥科技手段的重要作用。基于计算机网络的图像监控系统,实时地捕捉监控点的信息,给生产监督管理工作中的技术手段带来了前所未有的局面。文章从煤炭安全生产监督管理的概念、特点、保障措施、组织框架以及应用中应注意的问题等方面入手,论述了图像监控系统在煤矿安全监管中的应用。     

Food,farmers, and the future: Investigating prospects of increased food production within a national context

With international food price shocks in 2008 and 2011, food security became a political priority in many countries. In addition, some politicians have recently adopted a more nationalistic stance. Against that background, this paper critically investigates the prospects of increased food production within a national context. We use a small, high-income country, Norway, as an empirical case. In 2012, the government set a goal of increasing agricultural food production by 20% by 2030. We ask: 1) How has food production in Norway developed before and after the goal was set? 2) What plans do farmers have, and what do they regard as the main obstacles to increased production? We apply a mixed method combining public statistics, a survey, and interviews. We analyze four production systems: a) milk; b) grass-based meat; c) combined pig and grain; and d) grain. These systems represent around 80% of the domestically consumed food produced on farms in Norway. Since 2000, aggregate food production has had a slight downward trend with periodic fluctuations. Based on a political economy approach, we identify land and labor as the most limiting factors. Capital is less of a hindrance and offers a potential for increased production. Farmers have modest expectations of increased production, though. This outlook resonates with the strong integration of agriculture into the wider economy, at both micro and macro levels, making it challenging to implement new policies and change farm practices on a broad basis. Increases in some specific products, however, are realistic.