农牧户兼业时间的实证研究——基于内蒙古农村牧区的问卷调查

本文首先以新家庭经济学模型和巴纳姆—斯奎尔模型为基础构建了农牧户兼业时间作用机理的概念模型,而后结合内蒙古农村牧区1332户农牧户实地调研数据,采用Tobit计量模型,从农牧户劳动力人力资本、家庭特征、资源禀赋、社会资本、社会环境特征五个角度对农牧户兼业时间的影响因素进行分析。研究表明,劳动力人力资本特征、家庭特征、资源禀赋和社会环境变量对农牧户兼业时间具有较显著影响,而社会资本变量对于农牧户兼业时间并无显著影响。     

浙江省农村人力资本投资效率实证分析

本文采取问卷和实地调查方法对浙江省农村人力资本投资效率进行分析比较,重点对教育和培训投入与农业收入、非农业收入、劳动力流动性之间的相关性以及这些因素间的关系进行了实证分析。认为只有在经济发达地区教育程度与农业收入、非农业收入才有显著相关性。     

人力资本、社会资本与农村迁移劳动力的工资决定

本文利用2006年北京地区1452名外来务工人员数据,实证研究了人力资本、社会资本对农村迁移劳动力收入的影响.结果表明:人力资本的积累是决定迁移劳动力收入的主要因素,而社会资本在总体中的影响则不显著.进一步笔者发现了社会资本的性别差异:家庭关系与老乡关系对于女性迁移劳动力的工资有显著影响.同时,我们还发现对西部地区的男性迁移劳动力而言,社会资本的积累能够带来收入的提高.     

人力资本能否促进农村劳动力的非农就业参与——基于CHNS面板数据的实证分析

利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)1989-2011年的面板数据,实证分析教育、健康等人力资本对农村劳动力非农就业参与的影响。研究发现,人力资本对农村劳动力非农就业参与有显著的正向影响,但这种正向影响并非对所有群体都适用,人力资本因素对男性劳动力和年轻劳动力的非农就业参与缺乏应有的解释力,这与男性劳动力的家庭角色定位以及年轻劳动力参与非农就业的动因转变有关。     

农村劳动力回流、人力资本与家庭农场培育——基于CLDS2016数据的实证分析

为探究农村劳动力回流对家庭农场培育的作用机制,文章基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS2016)数据,采用Logit模型对其进行实证分析。结果发现,农村劳动力回流显著降低了家庭农场培育的概率。通过工具变量法、Heckman两步法和稳健性检验处理后,结论仍然稳健。同时,分别探讨了劳动力主动回流和被动回流对家庭农场培育的影响。结果表明,农村劳动力主动回流对家庭农场培育不具有显著影响;农村劳动力被动回流对家庭农场培育的阻碍作用显著。进一步机制探讨发现,劳动力回流会通过增加劳动力人力资本积累促进家庭农场培育,但劳动力回流却在一定程度上降低了农村劳动力在外的社会资本。因此,发挥主动回流劳动力人力资本优势,对其进行培训,更有利于家庭农场培育,推动乡村产业发展。     

中部地区农地转入意愿影响因素分析

基于农户问卷调查数据,建立Probit模型,从农户个人特征及家庭状况、农地资源禀赋及耕作条件、农地流转的社会条件三个方面,对农地流转的转入意愿影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:农户家庭收入来源、身体健康程素质、劳动力总人口数对农地转入的影响因素最大,而土地的细碎化程度以及对农地政策的了解程度也具有显著影响。结合实证分析结果,得到启示:扩大农民非农就业机会,实现农村劳动力向城市转移,增加农民收入来源;完善农村土地流转制度,发展土地流转中介来组织规范流转行为;最后要加强对农民的保障和农业基础设施建设的投入,促进农地流转。     

兼业农民的非农就业行为及其性别差异

本文在对兼业农民非农就业行为进行理论分析的基础上,基于安徽省兼业农户的实地调查数据,采用Tobit模型分析方法,就个人特征因素、家庭特征因素、非农劳动特征因素和农业政策因素对兼业农民非农就业行为的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果显示,家庭土地经营规模、家庭社会政治地位、劳动比较报酬和个体人力资本水平对兼业农民非农就业行为具有显著影响,但这种影响也显示出明显的性别差异。     

中国农村劳动力外出的影响因素分析

本文利用迁移理论从个体、家庭、社区和制度等多个层面对中国农村劳动力外出的影响因素进行了系统分析,提出了相关因素影响劳动力外出可能性的16个假设,并在此基础上建立了劳动力外出决策模型,利用中国农村住户调查34000户样本数据,对这些假设进行了实证分析。主要结论是:农民外出决策是多种因素共同作用的结果。对农民个体来讲,劳动力外出行为首先表现为人力资本竞争选择的结果;对于农民家庭来说,家庭相对剥夺感和市场流动性差增加了农民外出务工的可能性,新经济迁移理论在中国是实用的;对于家庭所在社区来讲,一个基础条件好和社会资本丰富的社区有利于推动农民外出,但过高的非农产业发展水平会降低本地劳动力外出的可能性;从制度层面讲,城乡二元结构及其相关的制度变革对中国农村劳动力流动产生了根本影响。     

家庭禀赋、人力资本与城乡女性就业流动研究——来自湖北省的城乡调查数据

本文通过在湖北省调查的4442个城乡女性劳动力样本,分析城市和农村女性劳动力就业流动性的差异,并构建计量经济模型进一步研究女性人力资本变量和家庭禀赋变量对她们是否外出、外出就业流动次数以及回流选择的影响。研究发现,家庭禀赋和人力资本对于城乡女性就业流动性的影响具有较大差异。家庭禀赋变量在农村女性劳动力是否外出就业的选择上发挥着重要作用,而人力资本对城市女性就业流动次数和回流选择的影响更为明显。总体来看,女性是否选择外出就业主要受家庭禀赋变量影响,而一旦女性选择外出就业后,人力资本变量将对其就业流动次数起主要作用。在当前城市劳动力市场中依然存有对女性劳动力的就业歧视,这种歧视削弱了女性的人力资本在就业市场上的竞争力。     

我国农村劳动力的就业意向选择分析——以统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区重庆市为例

农村劳动力的就业意向选择问题研究是对农村富余劳动力转移就业问题研究的进一步深化。该文以统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区重庆农村劳动力资源为主要研究对象,以其当前就业意向性选择为切入点,对影响农村劳动力当前就业意向的不同偏好因素进行分析,对其相关特征变量进行了详细的描述性统计分析,并采用多元Logit模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,重庆山区农村劳动力当前就业意向存在着明显的性别差异,男性农村劳动力素质总体上优于农村女性劳动力,两者平均年龄仍较高,男性农村劳动力更倾向于外出务工或经商就业,但总体收入仍不理想。务农就业意向的农村劳动力与务工、自主创业或经商就业意向的农村劳动力相比,在年龄、耕地、收入等变量方面存在显著劣势差异。农村劳动力的人力资本、家庭禀赋和所在村劳动力人口数等变量对其不同的就业意向选择具有重要影响和显著差异。     

Tournaments, Fairness, and Risk

We estimate willingness to pay (WTP) to operate under two types of contracts—tournaments (Ts) and fixed performance-standard contracts (F). Our results are consistent with the notion that subjects having social preferences for fairness and care about risk. That is, when subjects experience greater inequity under tournaments relative to fixed performance contracts, or experience greater revenue risk under tournaments, the gap between WTP for fixed performance and tournament contracts increases, ceteris paribus. Our results provide an explanation for grower dissatisfaction with tournament compensation schemes independent of possible concerns regarding opportunistic behavior by integrators.     

Agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development: An overview of issues, patterns, and determinants

This paper offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development. It sets out a conceptual framework for understanding the links among these three broad phenomena and then discusses emerging issues and evidence concerning the factors conditioning agroindustrialization in developing countries and the subsequent effects on employment, poverty, and the natural environment. We conclude with a research agenda.     

Renters,landlords, and farmland stewardship

Are farmers better stewards of the land they own than the land they rent from others? We answer this question using a data set that identifies Ontario farmers’ conservation practices on their own land as well as the land they rent. Using a fixed‐effects regression approach, we find that the role of tenure varies for different types of conservation practices. Farmers were found to be just as likely to adopt a machinery‐related practice such as conservation tillage on their rented land as that land which they own. On the other hand, farmers were found to be less likely to adopt site‐specific conservation practices such as planting cover crops on rented land. However, this effect diminishes as the expected length of the rental relationship increases when the landlord has a farming background.     

Crop research,biotech canola,and innovation policy in Canada: Challenges,opportunities, and evolution

Increased investment in agricultural research could contribute to sustainable development goals and benefit farmers, consumers, the environment, and the economy. This paper provides recent evidence and a critical assessment of the evolving Canadian canola crop development and innovation policy and compares it to the wheat and pulse sectors that differ in degree of biotechnology adoption, seeded acreage, intellectual property rights, and private sector involvement. This study also assesses how crop characteristics and technological changes affect future optimal public policy. A number of innovation policies are discussed that could stimulate further growth within the crop sector.     

Trade,policy, and food security

Food insecurity is extensive throughout the world and hunger and malnutrition are expected to remain serious humanitarian and political concerns, both in the short term and for the foreseeable future, particularly in low income developing countries where many rural and urban households are both income and asset poor. In those countries, domestic agricultural production is expected to be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years. Thus international markets for staple agricultural commodities, which have become increasingly important as sources of nutrition for both developing and developed countries over the past 60 years, are likely to become even more important in the future. Free trade policies allow countries to exploit their comparative advantages in economic activity, increasing average per capita incomes, longer term growth rates and a country's capacity to fund social safety nets for the poor. However, many countries abandoned those policies in favor of domestic protections in their efforts to mitigate the effects of short run food crises. The policy challenge is therefore to resolve the tension between optimal long run policies and short run initiatives to address food security concerns.     

Risk,learning, and technology adoption

This article explores how decision makers learn and use information, with an application to the adoption of biotechnology in agriculture. The empirical analysis relies on experimental and survey data measuring risk preferences, learning processes, and the adoption of genetically modified (GM) seeds among U.S. grain farmers. While controlling for risk aversion, we link individual learning rules with the cognitive abilities of each decision maker and their actual GM adoption decisions. We find evidence that very few individuals are Bayesian learners, and that the population of farmers is quite heterogeneous in terms of learning rules. This suggests that Bayesian learning (as commonly assumed in the analysis of agricultural technology adoption) is not an appropriate characterization. In addition, we do not find a strong relationship between observed learning styles and the timing of GM seed adoption. To the extent that learning is a key part of the process of technology adoption, this suggests the presence of much unobserved heterogeneity in learning among farmers.     

Incentives, Information Systems, and Competition

We investigate how different competitive regimes affect the ability to provide incentives based on noisy information systems. The set-up involves multiple producers and processors in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection. Reduced competition may facilitate incentive provision by allowing more high-powered incentives. This may rationalize both vertical and horizontal integration as seen in many agricultural markets with uncertain quality grading. On the other hand, if trading terms are settled before the information is observed, a noisy information system may suffice to give proper incentives. This may rationalize the use of long-term conditional price contracts in the trading of many agricultural products.     

Remittances,monetary institutions,and autocracies

ABSTRACT

How do remittances affect the choice of exchange rate regimes? Previous research shows that remittances, by easing the ‘impossible trinity’, increase the probability of governments adopting fixed exchange rates. However, that research overlooks the conditioning effect of monetary and political institutions. We argue that remittances, by altering recipient governments’ incentives to use monetary policy counter-cyclically, make central bank independence a credible anti-inflationary tool in less credible regimes; that is, autocracies. Thus, autocracies that receive remittances do not need to rely on fixed exchange rates. In this way, remittances open policy alternatives for developing autocracies. Statistical tests on a sample of 87 developing and transitional countries between 1980 and 2010 support our argument.