On the Relationship Between Aquaculture and Reduction Fisheries

Recently, there has been a growing concern that increased aquaculture production poses an environmental threat to the species targeted in so‐called reduction fisheries, the main source for fishmeal. The argument is that increased aquaculture production leads to higher feed demand, and then presumably to higher fishing effort in these fisheries. In this paper we address whether aquaculture production threatens sustainability of such fisheries. First, we ask under which management regimes can increased demand pose a threat to the species in question? Second, we investigate what is the market for fishmeal; is fishmeal a unique product or is it part of the larger market for protein meals which includes Soyameal? This is an important issue since the market structure for fishmeal is a key factor in determining whether increased aquaculture production can affect fishmeal prices, and thereby increase fishing pressure in reduction fisheries.     

Comparing heterogeneous consumption in U.S. and Japanese meat and fish demand

This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre‐committed meat and fish demand by U.S. and Japanese households using the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS). Pre‐committed demand represents the component of demand that is insensitive to both income and price adjustments. U.S. consumers are found to hold significant positive pre‐committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant, positive pre‐committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partially explain observed differences in Japanese and U.S. consumer reactions to nonprice and nonincome effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance, the more general GAIDS is preferred to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) for both the U.S. and Japanese demand systems. Results lend to improved demand modeling efforts and more complete understanding of true market forces at hand in meat and fish markets for these culturally diverse consumer groups.     

Regime Shifts in the Fish Meal/Soybean Meal Price Ratio

Aquaculture growth has led to worries about overfishing and reduction in wild‐caught food fish supply because of increased demand for fish meal. As such, the price ratio between fish meal and soybean meal has received much attention as an indicator of changing market conditions. In recent years, the price ratio between these two commodities has become more volatile. Several authors have suggested that the traditional relationship between fish meal and soybean meal has broken down and that this is evidence of increased demand pressure on fish meal. In this article, we investigate the hypothesis that there are two regimes for the relative price between fish meal and soybean meal. The empirical results support this hypothesis, with the low‐price regime representing the traditional stable relative price. The continued linkages between the fish meal and the soybean meal markets indicate that aquaculture is reducing its dependency on marine proteins in favour of vegetable proteins.     

Demand for improved fish feed in the presence of a subsidy: a double hurdle application in Kenya

Fish farming households’ demand for improved fish feed from the private market in Kenya is potentially influenced by the government's feed subsidy program. This article applies the double‐hurdle model to a cross‐section of fish farms to analyze demand for improved fish feed from private markets, and whether the government feed subsidy program has an effect on private demand for improved feed. The results indicate that households’ decisions to participate in the improved feed market are affected by the quantity of improved feed received from the government. Once the participation decision has been made, we find evidence of crowding‐in of the private improved feed sector; that is, the government's allocations of subsidized feed appear to increase private sector demand. In addition, the price of improved feed negatively affects the quantity purchased as expected. Education, extension contacts, and ease of marketing matured fish increase household propensity to purchase improved feed commercially. Policies that help reduce the price of improved feed such as reduction in tariffs on imported feeds and feed ingredients will foster demand for the feed, as will policies that facilitate marketing of fish at reasonable prices by households.     

我国鱼粉市场需求的影响因素及对策分析

文章以鱼粉、工业饲料以及养殖业等统计数据为依据,分析了我国鱼粉消费量居高不下的原因和消费特征,发现下游无论是饲料生产企业还是终端养殖(户)企业都存在严重的鱼粉低效率使用问题,同时我们发现鱼粉消费特征与我国养殖业特征存在一致性。当前,面对如何解决我国鱼粉市场需求增长过快造成的供不应求问题,宏观层面,政府部门需加强对渔业捕捞和海洋环境保护的规范管理,同时制定正确引导养殖业发展的政策,以及尽早建立鱼粉配方衡量指标的标准化体系;微观层面,处于鱼粉行业产业链中从生产到最终消费每一环节的参与者都需要更加理性地对待采购和使用。     

Global food demand,productivity growth,and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio‐energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three by three degrees, i.e., approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields and land and water constraints into account and derives specific land‐use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow prices for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water. In this article, we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e., yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand.     

China's booming livestock industry: household income, specialization, and exit

China's production of livestock products has generally kept pace with her rapidly increasing demand. Over-supply and market corrections for various livestock products took place over the latter part of the 1990s and large numbers of householders exited this type of production. Using household survey data, we estimate the relationship between a household's specialization in livestock production and household net income in 1995, and use a logit model to explore some predictors of household exit from livestock production over the following decade of market instability. We conclude that specialist livestock households with access to necessary skills, technologies, and markets increase their incomes from further livestock specialization in the base year, whereas those to whom livestock production is relatively unimportant can increase household incomes by diverting their resources away from animal husbandry. It was specialist rather than diversified livestock households that tended to bear the brunt of the adjustment to unfavorable price movements over the decade post-1995. Policy concerns include the exit of larger-scale specialized producers who tended to earn relatively high household incomes in 1995, barriers to the effective formation and operation of horizontal and vertical integration options to help mitigate market instability, the further development of insurance programs and markets for livestock producers, and development assistance to livestock households that for various reasons cannot increase scale and specialization.     

Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified.     

Characteristics and hedonic pricing of differentiated beef demands

We estimate a CBS system model of U.S. derived demand for meat. We use this model (1) to examine relationships between three quality categories of beef and three other meats and (2) to simulate how taste shifts have affected demands for meats over time. We extend previous studies by disaggregating wholesale beef production into three quality categories: (1) USDA Choice grade or higher, (2) USDA Select or lower, and (3) cow and bull beef. Innovative features of our empirical model include a breakout of ‘table cuts’ into Choice and Select and the use of a hedonic characterization of the two breakouts to value “Choice‐ness” and “beef‐ness.” Our model demonstrates important shifts in separate demands for Choice and Select beef. We show that, separately, the demand for Choice‐grade beef declined in the 1980s and 1990s and the demand for Select beef increased, a departure from the relatively stable demand characterizations of more aggregated measures of combined Choice and Select beef.     

Valuing groundwater recharge through agricultural production in the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands in northern Nigeria

This study applies a production function approach to value the groundwater recharge function of the Hadejia‐Nguru wetlands in northern Nigeria. The groundwater recharge function supports dry season agricultural production which is dependent on groundwater abstraction for irrigation. Using survey data this paper first carries out an economic valuation of agricultural production, per hectare of irrigated land. We then value the recharge function as an environmental input into the dry season agricultural production and derive appropriate welfare change measures. Welfare change is calculated using the estimated production functions and hypothetical changes in groundwater recharge and hence, groundwater levels. By focusing on agricultural production dependent solely on groundwater resources from the shallow aquifer, this study establishes that the groundwater recharge function of the wetlands is of significant importance for the floodplain.     

Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.     

Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve,and what would it require?

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy‐wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.     

New markets and technological change for the traditional cereals in semiarid sub-Saharan Africa: the Malian case

During the last three decades in sub‐Saharan Africa, development and research resources have concentrated on the higher‐rainfall and irrigated regions, especially on export crops and the principal food crops grown there. There has been much less concern and investment in semiarid regions without irrigation. Another negative factor has been the lack of public policy concern with the profitability of the basic food crops. With good weather, prices collapse. With bad weather, governments and NGOs dispense food crops as food aid or at subsidized prices. This article documents the importance of the demand side to facilitate diffusion of new technologies for the basic food commodities of semiarid regions—the traditional cereals. With farm programming models aggregated into a sector model, the combination of technological change and demand shifts for sorghum are evaluated in one semiarid region where the traditional cereals are concentrated. It focuses on combining policies to increase the prices farmers receive after introduction of technologies that use higher input levels. It also compares benefits of a strategy that focuses on yield and demand increases for a traditional cereal of the semiarid region, sorghum, with two alternative strategies for the higher‐rainfall zone.     

云南淡水渔业种业发展战略的若干思考

目的 为了充分发挥云南的资源和气候优势,服务国家战略,服务地方社会经济发展,服务东南亚,乃至全球渔业发展,提出将云南建设成为我国淡水渔业种业南繁基地的战略构想。方法 文章通过实地考察和历史文献资料研究,综合分析论述云南建设成为我国淡水渔业种业南繁基地的可行性、必要性和和重要意义,在气候条件、种质资源、淡水资源等必备条件方面论证云南建设成为我国淡水渔业种业南繁基地不可替代的优势。结果 （1）云南具有优越的气候条件、丰富的特有渔业种质资源、充足的淡水资源,为建设我国淡水渔业种业南繁基地奠定了重要的物质基础。（2）滇南地区日照充足,积温高,鱼类可周年生长,提早性成熟,缩短繁育周期,提高良种选育效率,为快出良种、出优质良种提供了极佳的气候条件。（3）云南是我国淡水渔业种质资源的宝库,分布鱼类达629种,占全国淡水鱼类种类总数的39.93%,居全国各省市之首,其中有大量性状优良的特有物种,开发利用潜力巨大。（4）云南淡水资源蕴藏量丰富,人均水资源占有量是全国人均的2.3倍,澜沧江下游的西双版纳州人均水资源占有量是全国的4.6倍,但水资源开发利用率仅5.7%,发展渔业是符合大食物观,提高水资源利用率的有效途径。因此,云南完全具备建设成为我国淡水渔业种业南繁基地的必备条件。结论 云南建设成为我国省淡水渔业种业南繁基地是可行和必要的,将服务于云南经济和社会发展,改善优化云南农业产业结构,培育出的优良品种将支撑我国淡水养殖业升级换代,满足消费者对优质水产品的需求,还可以澜沧江—湄公河下游的中南半岛国家为依托,向全世界提供中国新品种和中国技术方案。     

The global bio‐economy

Throughout history, agriculture and natural resources have been used for the production of food, feed, fibre, fuel, and environmental goods. Recent developments in demand both in terms of quantity and quality, technology, and traditional energy and chemistry markets have reinforced the demand for nonfood applications. These developments, in combination with increased consumer demands for various food characteristics, have led to a rapidly growing and globally integrated “bio‐economy.” This article introduces and summarizes the plenary papers on the opportunities and challenges for the bio‐economy that were presented at the 28th triennial conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) in Brazil. The following aspects of the bio‐economy are covered: finance, volatility, poverty, conflict, productivity, investment, resource constraints, and governance.     

Irrigation production functions with water-capital substitution

The dynamics of biomass growth implies that the yield of irrigated crops depends, in addition to the total amount of water applied, on irrigation scheduling during the growing period. Advanced irrigation technologies relax constraints on irrigation rates and timing, allowing us to better adjust irrigation scheduling to the varying needs of the plants along the growing period. Irrigation production functions, then, should include capital (or expenditures on irrigation equipment) in addition to aggregate water. We derive such functions and study their water-capital substitution properties. Implications for water demand and adoption of irrigation technologies are investigated. A numerical example illustrates these properties.     

Poor but allocatively efficient—evidence from the Eastern Amazon

This research empirically investigates the well‐known “poor‐but‐efficient” hypothesis formulated by Schultz (1964) assuming that small‐scale farmers in developing countries are reasonably efficient in allocating their scarce resources by responding positively to price incentives. Deviating from Schultz it is assumed here that scale effects explain a considerable proportion of small‐scale farmers' relative efficiency. The theoretical underpinnings of the scale efficiency concept are briefly reviewed before a normalized generalized Leontief (GL) profit function is modeled by using its output supply and input demand system to capture the joint production of cassava flour and maize by a sample of small‐scale farmers in the Bragantina region of the Eastern Amazon, Brazil. The discussion of theoretical consistency and functional flexibility is considered by imposing convexity on the GL profit framework. The empirical results confirm our revised hypothesis that small farmers in traditional development settings are “poor‐but‐allocatively efficient” by clearly suggesting considerable inefficiency with respect to the scale of operations.     

Socioeconomic aspects of rice‐fish farming in Bangladesh: opportunities,challenges and production efficiency*

In spite of the potential for rice‐fish farming in Bangladesh, it has been adopted by relatively few farmers because of socioeconomic, environmental, technological and institutional constraints. Rice monoculture remains the main farming system in Bangladesh even though integrated rice‐fish farming is the best farming system in terms of resource utilisation, diversity, productivity, production efficiency and food supply. Only a small number of farmers involve in integrated rice‐fish farming. This study concludes that rice‐fish farming is as production efficient as rice monoculture and that integrated performs better in terms of cost and technical efficiency compared with alternate rice‐fish farming. Integrated rice‐fish farming can help Bangladesh keep pace with the current demand for food through rice and fish production. However, a lack of technical knowledge of farmers, high production costs and risks associated with flood and drought are inhibiting more widespread adoption of the practice.     

Effect of information formats on information services: analysis of four selected agricultural commodities in the USA

We analyze sources of information in agricultural markets to understand patterns of demand for decision support services and the division of labor in the supply of these services. Information formatting—qualitative variation that determines accessibility and relevance of information in specific contexts—prohibits universal access to informational content. Information formats give rise to both transaction costs and complementarities reflected in patterns of information exchange in commodity systems. Controlling for actors' structural roles and levels of education, we develop a hedonic model of information demand such that actors seek information that is formatted to meet their needs and capabilities. Employing survey data, we explain elements of observed patterns of information exchange in four commodity systems in the USA. Results point to opportunities to expand our understanding of socioeconomic processes underlying production and consumption of decision support.     

Demand for collective food‐safety standards

In 2007, leading members of the U.S. fresh‐tomato industry responded to pressure from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regarding the industry's long history of poor food‐safety outcomes and adopted a set of standards for production practices related to food safety at all levels of the fresh‐tomato supply chain. Adherence to these standards was required under a federal marketing order that applied to essentially all tomatoes grown in Florida. The California Tomato Farmers cooperative, whose members produced the vast majority of fresh tomatoes grown in California, also required that its members adopt these standards. The collective food‐safety standards for fresh tomatoes closely resemble the requirements of the U.S. Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Produce Safety Rule, so the collective adoption of these standards provides an excellent case study to illustrate the possible effects of FSMA implementation on demand. I assess the hypothesis that demand for tomatoes from Florida and California increased following the adoption of standards for food‐safety practices by growers in those states, relative to demand for tomatoes from other regions. My analysis demonstrates essentially no evidence that demand for fresh tomatoes responded positively to the implementation of collective food‐safety practices.