Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system

Rapid income growth and urbanisation could significantly change the composition of the food basket in many emerging economies. This study estimates a demand system, including 15 major food items in Vietnam, with multiyear household survey data. We find a large variation in the estimated price elasticities (–0.05 to –0.88) and expenditure elasticities (–0.16 to 2.56). Food types, urban status and income groups can explain this variation. We also find that the staple food, rice, is already an inferior good for rich urban households in Vietnam. Moreover, food preferences are evolving away from rice but towards animal proteins (fish, pork, chicken, eggs and milk), fruits and vegetables, irrespective of urban status and income groups. As the Vietnam economy continues to grow with a doubling of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next decade, per capita rice consumption in both urban and rural areas and across different income groups will continue to decline, whereas demand for other high‐value products will rise. Thus, government policy should focus on encouraging demand‐oriented food production. In addition, crop diversification at the farm level needs to improve substantially to meet the rising demand for these food products due to income growth and urbanisation.     

A cross-section analysis of household demand for food and nutrients in Tanzania

Undernutrition and malnutrition are still problems of unacceptable proportions in many developing countries. However, the debate on the roles of income and other socio-economic variables such as women’s education and household size on food and nutrient demand continues. This study examines the demand for food and nutrients amongst households in Tanzania, using recent survey data. A quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) is employed to estimate price and expenditure elasticities, as well as the impact of socio-economic variables on food demand patterns. A moment-based instrumental variable approach is then used to analyse the determinants of nutrient demand. The results show that income and other socio-economic variables exert significant effects on the demand for food and nutrients. The estimated expenditure elasticities for the nutrients range from 0.307 for iron to 1.26 for Vitamin B₁₂. The elasticities are higher for those micronutrients that are consumed through animal products and lower for those micronutrients that are mainly obtained through staple foods. These results reflect the higher expenditure elasticities for meat, fish, eggs, milk, and milk products, as well as fruits and vegetables, relative to cereals and pulses, reinforcing the assertion that the demand for Vitamins A and B₁₂, as well as calcium and zinc will increase with rising income.     

Chinese animal product consumption in the 1990s

Chinese animal product consumption behaviour was analysed for both urban and rural households using a complete regional consumption dataset that was augmented to include away-from-home consumption. Seven animal product expenditure share equations were estimated with an extended Almost Ideal Demand System model. The results suggest that Chinese consumers will continue to increase their consumption of animal products, but that consumption patterns have changed in the 1990s. A large percentage of household animal product expenditure is still on pork. However, the shares for aquatic and poultry products consumption will increase substantially. As a consequence, the pork expenditure share will be gradually reduced as incomes grow and diet preferences change in both urban and rural households. There are significant differences in animal product consumption preferences across regions of China. As a result, studies that omit regional dummy variables in their demand systems can produce different expenditure and price parameters. The present paper also found that many of the estimates of elasticities and marginal expenditure shares would be rather different if the data ignored consumption away from home.     

Urbanization,the energy ladder and forest transitions in India's emerging economy

Urbanization is currently a major force in tropical land use transitions as economic activities aggregate in urban centers, particularly in Asia. This paper examines relationships among urbanization, household energy source, and forest cover at the state level in India using available census, survey, and remote sensing analysis from the 1990s and 2000s. Central questions include (1) how rapidly are urban and rural households switching from traditional to modern fuel sources; and (2) what are the consequences of changing household energy sources for fuelwood demand and forest cover. Country-wide, 30 and 78% of urban and rural households respectively used fuelwood for cooking in 1993. In urban households, the percentage decreased to 22% by 2005 with a shift towards liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The shift occurred across almost all income classes. In rural areas, the use of LPG increased fourfold but 75% of households still rely on fuelwood. Despite the decline in percentage households using traditional fuels, fuelwood demand continued to increase from 1993 to 2005 at a national scale due to an increasing total number of households. However, 25% of states and union territories experienced declines in rural fuelwood demand and over 70% declines in urban fuelwood demand. Forest cover has remained steady or increased slightly over the time period, reaffirming the conclusion that fuelwood demand may lead to local degradation but not large-scale deforestation. At the state level, increases in percent forest cover between 2000 and 2004 are positively associated with percent of total households that are urban (corresponding to fewer percentage households using wood) but not related to changes in fuelwood demand. Plantations are a primary cause of increases in forest area, where benefits to ecosystem services such as biodiversity and hydrologic function are controversial. Results suggest that households will continue to climb the energy ladder with future urbanization, resulting in substantial development benefits and reduced exposure to indoor air pollution. Implications of reduced fuelwood demand for forest cover are less certain but the limited data suggest that urbanization will promote a transition to increasing forest cover in the Indian context.     

Demand for meat and dairy products by Turkish households: a Bayesian censored system approach

We extend the Tobit (censored) linear equation system procedure to utility‐theoretic demand functions, along with a mapping mechanism to impose the adding‐up restriction implied by consumer utility maximization theory—a theoretical restriction very often ignored in previous empirical studies with censored demand systems. In this context, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is applied to the censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) for 12 food products, using data from the Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. All own‐price elasticities are negative and expenditure elasticities positive. Uncompensated own‐price elasticities for rural households are generally much higher than those for their urban peers, though demand for most food products are own‐price elastic for both types of households. The differential patterns in demand elasticities between urban and rural households become even more evident (almost twice) as relatively more expensive foodstuffs are consumed, showing that accessibilities to alternative products have made rural Turkish households more cognizant toward price changes in foods. Household characteristics play a key role in food expenditures, notably so in urban areas, and regional and seasonal differences are also present.     

Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

Spanish Household Demand for Seafood

Seafood is an important food commodity in Spain, the second largest consuming nation of seafood in the world. Today, several changes in demographics, socioeconomic factors, and lifestyle changes have affected demand for seafood products. Double‐hurdle models allow an examination of Spanish household expenditures on these products and explicitly account for the value of women's time. The empirical evidence shows that the set of statistically significant factors in the participation and expenditure equations is not the same for fresh and processed seafood goods. Income and household demographic variables are important determinants of both participation and expenditures on seafood products. In addition, the value of women's time affects expenditures on processed products, which include frozen, cured, and canned seafood goods.     

Household food consumption in Turkey

This paper analyses Turkish household food consumption, usingdata from the 2003 Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. A completedemand system is estimated taking into account demographic differencesand zero consumption. The highest expenditure elasticity isfound for the meat and meat products group, suggesting thatits demand will grow faster than the demand for other productsas the economy develops and income increases. Demand is moreprice-responsive for fats and oils and non-alcoholic beveragesthan all other food products. Regional and seasonal differencesand socio-demographic factors are as important as the conventionaleconomic variables in explaining observed differences in thehousehold's food consumption patterns in Turkey.     

北方牧区居民家庭食物消费结构与特征研究

[目的]文章以内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市内鄂温克族自治旗、陈巴尔虎旗、新巴尔虎右旗为典型区域,定量研究我国北方牧区居民家庭食物消费结构及特征,以期丰富我国牧区的食物消费数据库、促进牧区居民食物消费转型升级。[方法]采用分层抽样,通过实地入户3d跟踪称重调研,获取典型区域内204户居民家庭食物消费的一手数据,结合中国居民膳食宝塔推荐值和传统农村(山东省)居民食物消费数据,对牧区家庭食物消费结构进行分析。[结果](1)牧区居民家庭人均食物消费量为495.99g/(人·餐),其中植物性食物消费量是动物性食物的2.4倍;蔬菜消费占比最高(24.43%),其次是面粉(18.39%)、奶类(12.62%)和肉类(11.39%);粮食消费中50%以上为面粉消费,肉类消费中60%以上为牛羊肉消费。(2)不同区域和群体间消费差异明显。收入水平较高的家庭对非主食类食物(肉类、食用油、零食和酒水)的消费量更高,而对薯类的消费量更低;与少数民族相比,饮食主要决定人为汉族的家庭人均食物消费量更低,且对奶类、酒水的消费量明显更低。(3)与中国居民平衡膳食宝塔推荐值相比,呼伦贝尔牧区居民食物消费表现出高油多盐的特征,同时对牛羊肉为主的肉类和谷薯类的消费偏高,而对水产类、水果和奶类的消费明显不足;与传统农村居民家庭食物消费相比,牧区居民的蔬菜、大豆及坚果的消费量更低。[结论]牧区居民食物消费有了主、副食兼用的趋势,且仍能体现地域特色,但饮食结构仍呈现单一化,对牛羊肉等肉类消费过量情况尤为突出。     

A Microeconometric Analysis of the U.S. Meat Demand

Price and expenditure elasticities and estimates of the effect of household demographic variables on U.S. meat demand are estimated using the newly released 1987–88 USDA household food consumption survey data. The USDA survey for the first time included variables reflecting respondents' concerns for health and diet information. A hybrid demand system, which combines a modified generalized addilog system and a level version Rotterdam demand system, is developed as the analytical framework. The micro econometric analysis takes into consideration the consumer selection problem, the missing-price problem, and the aggregation and quality variation problem. The most significant household characteristic and socio-economic variables are region, ethnic background, household size, urbanization, food planner, received health information, female household head employment status and proportion of food expenditure on away-from-home consumption. The results support the speculation of other time-series meat demand studies claiming both health concerns and convenience are the reasons for changes in consumer preference in favor of poultry and fish and in disfavor of red meat.     

Estimating food demand in Paraguay from household survey data

We estimate a food demand system in Paraguay based on the 1997 national household survey, considering 12 food categories. To obtain demand elasticity estimates from household survey data accounting for quality effects, measurement errors, and censored observations, price indexes are obtained from ordinary least squares predictions of changes in unitary values caused by spatial and temporal variations, and the two‐step estimation procedure ( Shonkwiler and Yen, 1999 ) is applied. Our approach yields reasonable estimates of combined quantity and quality responses with respect to price. Results suggest distinct consumption behavior in urban and rural areas, particularly for chicken, eggs, dairy, and fats and oils, which are likely because of differences in the food distribution system and availability of nonmarket food sources.     

Household Food Demand in Burkina Faso: Implications for Food Policy

Chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of Burkina Faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most-consumed locally-grown cereals: sorghum, millet and maize. Meanwhile, urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat, cereals that are primarily imported. This study estimates demand relationships among food items in Ouagadougou, Burkina. The results of the estimation suggest that prices, income, household composition, education, marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations. Both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase. However, incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low-income households whereas high-income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice. The household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues, by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios. With increased production due to advances in technology, the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals, but deficits persist in the rice-wheat sector. The results underscore the importance of technological research since Burkina could become self-sufficient in at least the production of sorghum, millet and maize.     

一户一居：中国农民居住保障补充规范

研究目的:解释并定位《土地管理法》第62条第2款新设的一户一居规则。研究方法:规范解释、文本分析、规则比较等。研究结果:一户一居是农村村民一户拥有一处法定面积的居住空间的保障制度,是政府组织农民集体盘活利用存量宅基地、统一修建住宅并分配给农户的行为规范。一户一居开创了宅基地置换资产、宅基地集体统一利用、居住保障资产与经营性资产相分离、人均公平分配等农民居住保障的新制度和新观念。与《土地管理法》第62条第1款一户一宅规则下的宅基地实物分配不同,一户一居通过存量宅基地的资产化改造和居住保障权益的重新分配实现农民户有所居。研究结论:一户一居适用于无地可分的城中村和城郊村,受地方政府和农民集体财力以及当地市场需求的约束,是一户一宅的补充。     

Household Food Consumption in a Developing Economy:

The primary objective of this paper is to describe household rice consumption patterns in Nigeria with evidence from Imo State, determine the nature, magnitude and direction of income, price and cross price elasticities of demand, and examine the factors influencing household rice consumption. A budget survey of 50 randomly selected rural and urban households in Imo State, Nigeria, interviewed. The survey was repeated for 14 months between November 1984 and January 1986, providing the data used for analysis. There were significant differences between urban and rural household per capita daily rice consumption. Income (expenditure) elasticity of demand was greater than unity, and decreased, as expected, from low to high income groups. Household income was the most important determinant of food consumption. The implications of these findings for food and international trade policy are discussed.     

粮食主产区县域城镇化与农村协调发展的时空格局研究——以河南省108个县（县级市）为例

粮食主产区的城镇化与农村协调发展对区域的可持续发展具有重要的意义。着力构建县域城镇化与农村发展综合评价指标体系,以县域作为研究单元分别对城镇化水平与农村发展水平进行综合评价,对选取的各时间截面的县域城镇化水平和农村发展水平的协调发展度进行计算分析。运用探索性空间数据分析法(ESDA),对河南省县域城镇化水平、农村发展水平以及二者的协调发展度分别进行时空格局分析。结果表明:2009~2013年河南省县域城镇化水平、农村发展水平及其协调发展度在空间上表现出明显的空间集聚特征;县域城镇化呈现出东北部较高而西北与中东部较低的特征,县域农村发展水平在空间上的集聚态势逐渐降低,二者的协调发展度总体来看,高—高集聚型的县域集中在中北部的一些地级市,低—低集聚型县域个数逐渐减少,并且分布趋于分散;对县域城镇化与协调发展度进行相关分析,发现二者具有明显的正相关关系,而农村发展与协调发展度之间相关性不明显。最后,根据分析结论,提出了适合各地城镇化与农村发展的建议与对策。     

“户籍—社保”联动改革对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响

随着城市化进程加快,现行的户籍制度令城乡社会保障制度出现了分割,而城乡分化的社会保障体制又使得我国户籍制度改革举步维艰。城乡社会保障体系存在较大差异,使得农民不愿意放弃农村集体土地和宅基地。在耕地保护压力越来越大的今天,了解农民意愿,有效解决农村宅基地的退出问题,成为实现城乡建设用地增减挂钩、确保耕地保有量的有效途径。本文以河北省沧州市新华区和运河区外围农村宅基地为研究对象,运用Logistic模型分析了"户籍—社保"联动改革下影响农户宅基地退出意愿的主要因素,提出"户籍—社保"联动改革建议。     

The consequences of armed conflict on household composition

We evaluate the effect of large-scale violent conflict on the household composition of internally displaced persons using quantitative data from Colombia. We use a panel database of migrants constructed with the Sisben database (used to target social programmes in Colombia) for 2006–2009. We follow migrant mothers and children who belong to nuclear-biparental households before migration, and analyse the changes in the composition of their households after migration through multilevel multinomial logistic models. We do this separately for rural and urban migrants because they exhibit differences in household composition traditions and exposure to armed conflict. We find that urban and rural migrants have different migration strategies in both peaceful and armed conflict circumstances. We conclude that the household compositions of mothers and children are differently affected by violence, which might be caused by family separation; for example, rural children have a higher probability than mothers of belonging to households which are not nuclear biparental. We also find that exposure to violence can increase or decrease the effects of individual variables; for instance, in peaceful situations it is more likely that a household remains intact during migration when the number of children per adult increases; however, this effect is attenuated in violence situations.     

Earnings Mobility of Rural versus Urban Workers in Canada

The policy choice to enhance household income for poor, working families depends on the dynamics of individual earnings and their direct, albeit imperfect, link to household income levels. This paper assesses the factors affecting the dynamics of low pay for rural versus nonrural individuals in Canada. Approximately one-quarter of the rural workers sampled in Statistics Canada's SLID data receive a wage less than two-thirds of the median wage for the period and the percentage is increasing over time. In contrast, an average of 17% of workers in urban areas receives wages below this threshold. The low pay in rural areas is also "longer lasting," either because the probability of an upward wage move is less, because the probability of moving out of the labor force is less, or because the probability of moving down from high pay is greater. Thus, direct mechanisms such as a minimum wage are likely to be more effective in rural areas. The higher probability of a move downward (either to low pay or out of the labor force) may be associated with greater seasonal work in rural areas. Hence, policy to address rural low pay may need to take seasonality into account more than in urban labor markets.     

Experiencing forest products – An innovation trend by rural entrepreneurs

There is increasing emphasis on innovation as a driver of continued prosperity in the rural economy. Globalisation poses challenges to rural areas given technological advances and intensified competition in agricultural markets, ageing rural populations and expansion of urban areas. However, in recent years, the conception of rural areas has shifted from places of production to places of consumption. In line with an increasing urban demand for consumption of products and services close to nature within the rural landscape, we observe the emergence of experiential offers based around non-wood forest products (NWFP) where the consumer is closely connected to the harvesting and use of the products. In this paper, we examine how such intersecting demands have created new forms of market for NWFP, by analysing in-depth four innovative examples in Austria and the United Kingdom. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the managers of these businesses, and cases were analysed through application of both the experience economy and the innovation systems approach. We found that all four businesses were on the one hand derived from traditional, regional cultural skills and values and, on the other hand, directly connected to new consumers’ demands. The apparent success of these emerging business models lies in the accretion of new social values onto traditional products. Thus creative approaches blending offers designed to enhance cosumers’ experiences into traditional sectors, such as forestry, would have potential in the future. However, our results indicate that there is a lack of institutional support for the development of such businesses in both countries. Better suited innovation policies and support structures would be important for mainstreaming or encouraging the development of similar businesses, innovations and knowledge.     

Farm size,land ownership,and fertility in rural Egypt

The purpose of this paper is to present the findings of a household level analysis of land availability and fertility variation among farm families in rural Egypt. Data were drawn from a survey conducted in 2 predominantly rural governorates in Lower Egypt in 1978, Beheira and Kafr El Sheikh. They were purposely selected in an attempt to obtain areas representing a range of socioeconomic and demographic conditions. The analytical model that underlies the study postulates that fertility variation in rural areas is influenced by family access to land for cultivation purposes and the conditions governing that access, as well as socioeconomic and demographic control variables. Among the 561 households sampled, the mean value for land ownership was .47. The mean value for household income measured in Egyptian pounds was 112.83 with a standard deviation of 84.76 pounds. The females had been employed 9.7% of the years since marriage. On the average, women had completed less than 3 months of formal education--.32 years. Access to land cultivation was significantly related to the other variables. Land ownership increased with farm size. Family income was closely linked to cultivated area. Landless laboring families had the lowest fertility. Wives of landless laborers were on the average younger, slightly better educated, and less likely to have worked for wages since marriage. The results support the hypothesis that the amount of land available to the family for cultivation is positively related to fertility. Land ownership was negatively related to children ever born. Per capita family income also exerted a negative influence on the number of children ever born. This indicates that income levels were such that the positive nutrition-induced income effect on fertility does not seem to prevail. Age at marriage was negatively associated with fertility and was statistically significant. The strongest variable was the woman's age.