对房地产泡沫的研究

随着我国经济的发展，人口的增加，城市化进程的加快，房地产网络的崛起，以及加入WTO和北京奥运的成功举办等，无疑都会给我国房地产业的发展带来机遇，特别是网络与房地产的结合，给未来房地产业的发展指出了一条道路。但是，面对日益激烈的竞争，房地产需求的进一步增加，我国的房地产业也面临着更大的挑战。房价越来越高，投机交易极为活跃，百姓买房越来越困难，房地产泡沫成为社会关注的焦点问题之一。我们必须让这一行业真正成为我国经济发展新的增长点，防范房地产泡沫，促进房地产业的健康发展。     

房地产泡沫对银行业影响与对策

近年来，我国房地产价格持续走高，已经与消费能力的提高渐渐脱节。据有关权威报告，我国房地产市场的警报让人忧虑，我国去年商品房的空置率为26％，过热的投资使房地产业成为新的高危产业。在房地产开发经营融资不断社会化、多元化的过程中，房地产业是否存在泡沫及泡沫的破裂不仅影响房地产开发商、参与者，还将影响向房地产开发提供各种服务的中介机构、金融机构及相关产业的从业人员，严重时还可能影响整个国民经济的运行或国家经济安全。     

中位数在平均房价研究中应用探讨

自2004年7月易宪容发表了《谨防房地产要挟整个国内经济》的文章以来，关于中国房地产业是否存在泡沫的争论就不绝于耳。关于房地产市场泡沫的看法可分为以下三种：一是泡沫论，认为中国房地产市场不但存在泡沫，而且比较严重；二是非泡沫论，认为中国房地产市场不存在泡沫；三是存在泡沫危险论，认为中国房地产市场已经过热，存在泡沫危险。     

房地产泡沫演变的作用机理研究

近年来,世界各国房地产业的繁荣激起了理论界、学术界和业界不同的“泡沫”论调,“房地产泡沫”甚至也成为公众日常谈资的一部分。显然,深入研究“泡沫”这一现象的时代已经到来。文章以此为出发点,不再局限于争论房地产泡沫是否存在的命题,而是提出一个能够系统反映房地产泡沫从产生到形成以及崩溃整个演变过程的不同作用因素的影响,揭示泡沫经济的演变机理,以期为防范房地产泡沫经济的形成提供更为开阔的分析视角。     

房地产泡沫对金融业的影响

受上世纪九十年代金融危机的影响，我国在1998年进行了财政和货币的扩张政策以刺激中国经济。在此背景下，我国政府扶持房地产市场以带动经济的发展，每年房地产行业为我国GDP的增长率贡献在2％。经过几年的发展，自2004年以来，我国的房地产市场开始出现泡沫，房地产是否过热和泡沫程度的大小引起了各界人士的关注。     

中国房地产泡沫与商业银行信贷扩张

本文论述中国房地产不断扩张的主要原因——商业银行信贷扩张之间的相互关系。通过研究日本与美国房地产泡沫的经验教训，得出银行通过控制信贷过度扩张抑制房地产泡沫的相关措施。     

我国城市房地产预警系统研究

房地产业已经成为推动国民经济发展和GDP稳定增长的主要支柱行业,如何对房地产业过热或过冷进行预警,已成为一些学者关心和研究的重要课题。本文对我国城市房地产预警指标进行初步设计,并提出预警综合加权法,根据指标加权值预测房地产市场状态,对房地产市场冷热程度进行预警预报。     

房地产泡沫成因评估与对策

近几年，火暴的房地产市场引发了关于房地产泡沫的大争论。数位知名经济学者陆续发表文章，认为中国房地产泡沫已相当严重，接近于崩溃的边缘。与此相反，建设部政策研究中心课题组发表了《怎样认识当前房地产市场形势》，其基本结论是：中国房地产泡沫论并不成立，中国房地产金融危机在可控范围内。学术界、房地产业界以及政府对于房地产的泡沫形势判断到底谁对谁错呢？要回答这些问题，必须先对房地产泡沫进行整体认识。     

发展我国房地产投资基金障碍与对策

目前，房地产业已经成为国民经济的支柱产业，但是，我国房地产开发企业的融资渠道单一，除自有资金外，主要通过银行贷款获得．央行陆续颁布了有关信贷紧缩的一系列政策，使得房地产企业的直接融资渠道不畅．本文从介绍房地产投资基金开始，分析我国发展房地产投资基金的障碍，相应给出对策分析。     

我国房地产企业融资方式研究

房地产业是一个典型的资金密集型产业,投资规模大、周期长,充足的资金对房地产业的发展至关重要。随着我国房地产投融资体制的不断变化和国家对房地产业的宏观调控,房地产企业的资金链面临着日益严峻的挑战。融资渠道的单一,对银行贷款依赖度过高,已成为房地产业发展的资金瓶颈,拓宽融资渠道成为了每个房地产企业都面临的重要问题。因此,在国家对房地产频繁的宏观调控形势下,剖析房地产融资存在的问题并进行探讨,提出解决方案,是解决房地产融资困难,化解商业银行房地产信贷风险,促进我国房地产行业健康发展的关键。     

How big is China’s real estate bubble and why hasn’t it burst yet?

This paper represents an international, comparative, empirical study of the relationship between financial crises and real estate development, with a focus on China. We review recent major crises around the world from 1980 to 2014.We then discuss the ways real estate crises develop into financial crises (considering that most recent financial crises actually trace their origins to real estate bubbles). We also look at China’s current economic situation, and identify potential threats to the country's economic development by comparing it with other countries’ historical experiences. A comprehensive analysis of the relationship between real estate and finance predicts an upcoming burst in China’s bubble economy. We explore the deep-seated underlying Chinese systemic causes and characteristics that explain why China’s economic bubble has yet to burst and the possible financial consequences of the real estate bubble in China. Our findings suggest that a financial crisis often emerges from a weak financial system which is too closely linked to the country’s real estate sector. These linkages allow real estate crises to mushroom into financial crises. In turn, these financial crises balloon into macroeconomic crises. China’s current situation is extremely alarming, though the country shows remarkable resilience to crisis as the government seems to possess the tools and capacity to avoid a hard landing. The findings of this research advance our understanding of the consequences of China’s real estate bubble and sound a clear warning to China’s policymakers.     

不动产抵押贷款证券化探讨

由于各种原因,我国的信贷资产证券化还没有发展起来,但随着房地产业日益成为国民经济支柱产业和资本市场的发展,不动产信贷资产证券化有望成为我国证券市场的突破口。文章介绍了不动产信贷证券化的基本原理;进而分析了我国实行不动产证券化的必要性;最后就在我国实行不动产证券化的机制完善和制度创新提出了五点建议。     

回归理性,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展

房地产市场是经济市场和金融市场的重要组成部分,由于房地产产业特征决定房地产市场在国民经济中的地位和作用,是构建和谐社会的重要内容。目前因整个房地产市场已融入经济市场和金融市场,投资性和投机性需求是抬高房价的重要原因,应回归市场理性,采取多种方式促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,达到人人都有房住的目的。     

Translocality on the real estate market

Translocality is a new phenomenon, recognized in reference to the migration of populations, city-planning and globalization. In our article, we attempt to introduce a new meaning of this term, referring it to the real estate market. Within the work, we research the phenomenon of real estate market subject translocality for all regions of Poland, design a coefficient for measuring translocality and, noting a similarity of the two phenomenon over time, indicate the practical significance of translocality in relation to the speculative price bubble.     

Real estate supports rapid development of China's urbanization

Urbanization is an important engine of modernization and economic growth, and appears to be an inevitable trend in human socioeconomic development around the world. However, China’s unusually rapid urbanization rate has attracted increasing attention. Our research suggests that understanding the country’s real estate market is the key to understanding the country’s rapid urbanization. The booming real estate market represents a major source of funding for urban infrastructure construction, and has accelerated the migration of rural residents to cities. We describe how four typical Chinese cities supported urbanization by promoting the development of different aspects of a real estate market to illustrate real estate’s role in Chinese urbanization, thereby providing examples and cautions for urbanization both in China and in other parts of the developing world.     

株洲县商业地产项目可持续发展探究

随着住宅地产的竞争日益激烈,国家宏观调控力度加强,在新型城镇化和现代商贸服务业提质的背景下,小城镇已经成为商业地产开发商的新战场。株洲县作为长株潭城市群的南大门,对其商业地产发展进行研究具有代表意义。通过对市场调研和数据分析,探讨其发展态势,株洲县商业地产项目应当走明确战略定位、符合总体规划、坚持科学开发等可持续发展的路径。     

Government intervention in city development of China: A tool of land supply

There has been continuous debate on whether the state can support market-based activities in the land market. It is widely recognized that land markets do not function by themselves, mainly because they are inherently imperfect; this imperfection provides foundation for state intervention. Under the Land Use Rights System of China, land supply is a powerful tool for intervening into land markets, and proceeds from land supply greatly contribute to local revenue and financing of infrastructure construction. The state, however, is not an impartial entity. Its desire to increase local revenue through land leasing has led to the oversupply of land and housing affordability problems in real estate markets. This paper, using evidence from Guangzhou, argues that land supply intervention is a two-edged sword in Chinese city development. It further claims that the state intervention is becoming gradually professional after the real estate market bubble in the early 1990s. Problems, such as structure imbalance in land supply, however, still have negative impacts on the sustainable development of Chinese cities.     

跨国房地产投资的动因及其风险分析

随着经济全球化的不断深入以及新兴国家房地产业的火爆发展,房地产投资全球化发展的趋势将不可逆转。在当前国际经济一体化环境下,跨国房地产投资主要动因是扩大市场机会、追求高额收益和分散风险;总体来看,跨国房地产投资的风险:一是国家风险,二是市场风险,三是交易风险。文章指出新兴国家在保护国内房地产业和国民经济发展的宏观调控上,必须要引起足够的重视,并对新兴国家的宏观调控提出了两方面的建议。     

江西省地矿局支柱产业发展的实践和探索

文章介绍了江西省地矿局发展支柱产业的实践经验。江西省地矿局选择地质找矿、工程市场、矿业开发、多种经营为其支柱产业 ,通过为地方经济发展搞好地质服务、结构调整、以矿产、房地产为重点寻找经济增长点等项措施 ,做强做大支柱产业 ,提高其核心竞争力。文章还介绍了该局发展支柱产业的六点体会和下一步发展支柱产业的两个思路