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1.
We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.  相似文献   

2.
Many studies have been carried out that measure welfare effects of the newly adoped common policy on banana imports by the European Union. All these studies assume that foreign trade in bananas is characterised by perfectly competitive behaviour. However, if foreign trade in bananas is imperfectly competitive, then the welfare predictions about the common banana policy may turn out to be incorrect. It is necessary, therefore, to empirically estimate the degree of market imperfection in the banana market. In this paper, we estimate the degree of market imperfection in the German market for banana imports using a structural econometric model. Based on the bootstrap procedure, we reject the hypothesis that firms in this market behave perfectly competitively, but cannot reject the hypothesis that firms are engaged in Cournot-Nash behaviour.  相似文献   

3.
This study examines the prospects for and potential impacts of liberalized international trade in sugar. It utilizes a state specific, cost of production based estimate of U.S. sugar supply to examine producer surplus under the current sugar policy regime and under a free trade scenario. It also evaluates the long-term viability of sugar production in individual states at free market prices.  相似文献   

4.
Theoretical models of market entry imply that sunk costs are an important factor in the decision to export. Following Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) , we develop a simple model of foreign market participation and use a Bayesian method to estimate the resulting dynamic discrete‐choice model with lagged dependent variable. Employing a balanced panel data that follows 81 trading partners for 30 years from 1971 to 2000, we estimate our model and compute the marginal effect of sunk costs on the likelihood of export market participation. We find that such costs are economically and statistically important for trade in all of the six major agricultural commodities (Cereals, Dairy, Fish, Meat, Vegetables and Fruits, and Sugar), for agricultural producers in both developed and developing countries. We also find evidence suggesting that, in general, market access for both developed and developing exporters had improved in the years following the Uruguay round of trade negotiations (1995–2000).  相似文献   

5.
Recent research highlights the role that multinational trading companies may play in impeding price transmission. In markets characterised by imperfect competition, an estimate of the partial elasticity of demand may be of limited practical value if no account is taken of the reaction of competitors. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for market structure to affect price transmission and trade elasticities, and challenge the presumption that only government intervention can impact upon price transmission, with examples supporting why theory would suggest otherwise.  相似文献   

6.
Constant market shares analysis: uses,limitations and prospects*   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In this paper, we generalise the constant market shares (CMS) framework, with particular attention to the underlying theoretical conditions required for diagnostic interpretation. The approach is applied to the analysis of the export performance of the Australian processed food sector in South‐East Asia over the period 1980–2003. We conclude that the usefulness of CMS analysis for evaluating a country's international trade performance depends upon the empirical validity of the aggregation assumptions implicit in the diagnostic interpretation.  相似文献   

7.
This article explores the drivers of regional stock market integration with a focus on the agribusiness sector across relevant regional trade blocs around the world. We implement panel cointegration models to analyze the stock indices of agribusiness firms in the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), European Union (EU), Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Based on the literature on market integration and stock return pricing, we identify nine possible determinants of stock market integration, which we separate into three categories: individual market performance, macroeconomic conditions, and agricultural trade. In our analysis, we account for agriculture‐specific factors to control for possible structural shifts in financial markets regimes by including the two main commodity price bubbles during last 20 years. Our results show that most of the variables included in our categories have been important factors in promoting regional stock market integration. Moreover, integration among regional stock markets was strengthened by the implementation of trade agreements. This effect is stronger in trade blocs with fewer members, such as NAFTA and MERCOSUR, compared with larger and more heterogeneous blocs, such as the EU and APEC.  相似文献   

8.
This article analyzes the effects of foreign patent rights on U.S. bilateral exports. The empirical analysis covers three highly disaggregated drug industries over three decades. We estimate bilateral trade equations for each industry using cross-country data on the strength of national patent rights. The findings show that strong foreign patent rights enhance the market power of U.S. drug exporters across countries with weak imitative abilities. Alternatively, strong foreign patent rights stimulate the market expansion of U.S. drug exports across countries with strong imitative abilities. These effects are larger in magnitude during the 1980–90s relative to the 1970s.  相似文献   

9.
首先运用边际成本模型和剩余需求弹性模型估算了中国板栗及其在主要出口国市场上的国际市场势力,发现加入WTO前,中国板栗国际市场势力较大,加入WTO后中国板栗国际市场势力下降;中国板栗在泰国的市场势力最大,在荷兰的市场势力次之,在日本的市场势力最小,说明中国板栗出口具有了一定的市场势力,但由于中国板栗出口价格总体趋于下降,低成本优势逐渐减弱,所获得板栗贸易比较利益逐渐减少,板栗的现实国际市场势力并不很明显。  相似文献   

10.
Many developed countries have reduced agricultural market performance in the last decade with increased domestic subsidies and trade barriers. Several data sets were used to illustrate the extent of market distortion among some markets. Economic theory can show that these distortions reduce the general welfare in the countries with high trade barriers as well as the traditional agricultural exporting countries. The dairy industries appear to have the highest Producer Subsidy Equivalent. Among the developed countries, Western European countries and the Pacific Rim countries have caused major distortions in international markets of many agricultural products. Market performance in agricultural industries would be substantially improved if these major distortions were eliminated.  相似文献   

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