The potential and cost of increasing forest carbon sequestration in Sweden

This paper examines the potential and the cost of promoting forest carbon sequestration through a tax/subsidy to land owners for reducing/increasing carbon storage in their forests. We use a partial equilibrium model based on intertemporal optimization to estimate the impacts of carbon price (the tax/subsidy rate) on timber harvest volume and price in different time periods and on the change of forest carbon stock over time. The results show that a higher carbon price would lead to higher forest carbon stocks. The tax/subsidy induced annual net carbon sequestration is declining over time. The net carbon sequestration during 2015–2050 would increase by 30.2 to 218.3 million tonnes of CO₂, when carbon price increases from 170 SEK to 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The associated cost, in terms of reduced total benefits of timber and other non-timber goods, ranges from 80 SEK to 105.8 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The change in carbon sequestration (as compared with the baseline case) beyond 2050 is small when carbon price is 680 SEK per tonne of CO₂ or lower. With a carbon price of 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂, carbon sequestration will increase by 70 million tonnes of CO₂ from the baseline level during 2050-2070, and by 64 million tonnes during 2070–2170.     

Wood biomass use for energy in Europe under different assumptions of coal,gas and CO2 emission prices and market conditions

This study examines the effects of different coal, natural gas and carbon emission prices and market situations on the use of wood for electricity and heat production in the European Union. The analysis is carried out using the global forest sector model EFI-GTM expanded to cover electricity and heat production from wood, coal, natural gas, wind and solar energy. Analysis shows that with low coal and gas prices, use of wood for energy will be limited to low cost logging residues. With high coal, and especially natural gas prices, industrial wood also comes to be used for energy. At a carbon price of 100 €/tCO₂, some 32 Mm³ of industrial wood, in addition to 224 Mm³ of logging residues, are projected to be used for electricity and heat in the EU region (including Norway and Switzerland) in 2030. The relatively low quantity of industrial wood used by the energy sector despite the collapse of the use of coal is explained by the fact that under high CO₂ prices, other energy forms like natural gas, solar and wind energy become more and more competitive. However, the amount of industrial wood used for energy may substantially increase with subsidies for using wood for electricity and heat, even with relatively low carbon prices. With a high coal and gas price and a carbon price of 100 €/t, a subsidy of 30 €/MWh to the wood based and coal with wood co-firing electricity production will have a significant impact on the European wood based sector. Depending on the development of the market demand for forest industry products, such a subsidy may cause a 10–12.5% reduction in forest products production, a 6–9% increase in harvest level, about 30–60% increase in the pulpwood prices, and a 6–9 fold increase of wood imports in the EU, compared to the respective case without a subsidy in 2030.     

Forest fragmentation reduced carbon storage in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh: Implications for policy development

Forest fragmentation is continued to be widespread in the tropics resulting in reduced ecosystem services including carbon storage. However, the effect of forest fragmentation is not considered in the current carbon policy. We investigated the effect of forest fragmentation on tree biomass carbon and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh. Above and below-ground tree biomass carbon were calculated by using widely accepted allometric equations and SOC was measured by sampling soils up to 10 cm depth and analyzing them in a soil laboratory. Results showed that carbon storage in tree biomass was significantly lower in fragmented forests (16.3 ± 1.37 t C ha⁻¹) than in contiguous forests (31.21 ± 2.75 t C ha⁻¹) (p < 0.001). Likewise, a significantly lower SOC was contained in the soils of fragmented forests (17.26 ± 0.83 t C ha⁻¹) than in contiguous forests (21.62 ± 0.78 t C ha⁻¹) (p < 0.001). Thus a total of 36% less carbon retained in tree biomass and soils in fragmented forests than in contiguous forests. Backward multiple linear regression analysis revealed tree density, tree height, tree DBH, height-diameter ratio (H/D) and tree species richness as influential factors of carbon variation in fragmented forests. All these structural parameters except tree species richness were significantly lower in fragmented forests, were positively associated with carbon storage and explained together 69% of the carbon storage variation. These findings suggest that the altered stand structure and tree allometry likely caused reduced carbon storage in fragmented forests and highlight the importance of landscape scale management intervention in the tropics. Here, we provided with the evidence of strong negative impact of forest fragmentation on carbon storage and argue that this effect should be in consideration which is currently overlooked in existing carbon accounting systems for tropical forests.     

Carbon storage in a bamboo (Bambusa vulgaris) plantation in the degraded tropical forests: Implications for policy development

Tropical forests potentially contribute to global climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, hence a global carbon pool. In order to mitigate the global climate change impact, the Kyoto protocol developed the clean development mechanism (CDM) which supports carbon credits for plantation activities in developing countries. Unfortunately, none of the CDM forestry projects included bamboo as a carbon reservoir. Although bamboo is an integrating part of tropical forest ecosystems, it was overlooked in the initial negotiating process. The present study, therefore, investigated the carbon storage potential of a common bamboo species, Bambusa vulgaris at Lawachara forest reserve of Bangladesh. Results showed that five-year-old B. vulgaris stand stored in total 77.67 t C ha⁻¹ of which 50.44 t C ha⁻¹ were stored in the above ground biomass (culms, branches and leaves), 2.52 t C ha⁻¹ in the below ground biomass and 24.71 t C ha⁻¹ in the soils. This amount of carbon storage is much more promising than the carbon storage of many other tree species considered in the CDM projects. These findings demonstrate the potential of B. vulgaris to be considered in CDM projects as a plantation species and thereby mitigate climate change impact more efficiently.     

Interventions to better manage the carbon stocks in Australian Melaleuca forests

Forests and woodlands dominated by tree species of the genus Melaleuca cover around 7,556,000 ha in Australia and predominantly occur as wetland ecosystems. In this Viewpoint, we use published secondary data to estimate that there is likely to be between 158 tC/ha and 286 tC/ha stored in Melaleuca forests. These estimates are at least five times greater than the previous estimate made by the Australian Government (about 27.8 tC/ha). There are 2.1 million ha of protected Melaleuca forest which likely stock between 328 M tC and 601 M tC; equivalent to between 2.7% and 5.0% of total carbon storage of all Australian native forests. These estimates are significant because it appears that carbon stocks in Melaleuca forests are currently dramatically under-estimated in Australia's national greenhouse gas emissions inventory reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Whilst the precision of the estimates is limited by the availability of rigorous primary data, we also argue that the estimates are indicative and meaningful, and this synopsis highlights the fact that this forest type should be considered a significant carbon store nationally and globally.     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

Public policies can reduce tropical deforestation: Lessons and challenges from Brazil

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation now constitutes an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is all the more important to identify cases in which economic growth has not sparked excessive forest clearance. We address the recent reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon by conducting a statistical analysis to ascertain if different levels of environmental enforcement between two groups of municipalities had any impact on this reduction. Our analysis shows that these targeted, heightened enforcement efforts avoided as much as 10,653 km² of deforestation, which translates into 1.44 × 10⁻¹ Pg C in avoided emissions for the 3 y period. Moreover, most of the carbon loss and land conversion would have occurred at the expense of closed moist forests. Although such results are encouraging, we caution that significant challenges remain for Brazil's continued success in this regard, given recent changes in the forestry code, ongoing massive investments in hydro power generation, reductions of established protected areas, and growing demand for agricultural products.     

Landowner net benefit from Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) afforestation of dry-land cereal fields in Valladolid,Spain

This analysis measures the net benefit that a landowner could obtain from changing current dry-land cereal fields into Stone pine plantations in Portillo and Viana (Valladolid, Spain). We apply cost–benefit analysis techniques to estimate the present value of Stone pine afforestation net benefit by considering an infinite series of forestry rotations. We simulate three Stone pine silviculture models at each of the two sites. In addition, we estimate landowner extended net benefits from Stone pine afforestation when we consider a hypothetical payment for the carbon sequestration service. Results show that, when government subsidies are included, Stone pine afforestation only offers positive landowner net benefit in Portillo when both medium and high-stocking silviculture models are applied. Taking into account carbon prices up to €45 tC^?1 (€12.3 tCO₂^?1), Stone pine afforestation gives landowner positive extended net benefits for the three silviculture models simulated at the Portillo and Viana sites.     

Heterogeneity and assessment uncertainties in forest characteristics and biomass carbon stocks: Important considerations for climate mitigation policies

The management of forests to store carbon and mitigate climate change has received significant international attention during the last decade. Using in situ data from a 2008–2009 forest inventory field campaign in Sri Lanka, this study describes the structural characteristics and carbon stocks of six natural forest types. This paper has a dual scope: i) to highlight the variation in carbon stored in aboveground biomass within and between forest types and ii) to determine the implications of the allometric equations chosen to calculate biomass carbon stocks. This study concerns work related to climate change interventions, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and other forest-related, performance-based initiatives that require proper monitoring, reporting, and verification of carbon stocks, sinks and emissions. The results revealed that forests are heterogeneous in terms of tree density and height–diameter relationships, both between and within the six forest types investigated. The mean aboveground carbon stock in the different forest types ranged from 22 to 181 Mg C ha⁻¹, and there were statistically significant differences in the carbon stocks of the six forest types in 7 of 15 cases. The estimated carbon stock depended heavily on the allometric equation used for the calculations, the variables, and its application to the specific life zone. Due to the diversity of forest structures, these results suggest that caution should be taken when applying default values to estimate forest carbon stocks and emission values in reporting and accounting schemes. The results also indicated the need for allometric equations that are context-specific for different forest types. Therefore, new field investigations and measurements are needed to determine these specific allometric equations, as well as the potential variation in forest carbon stocks in tropical natural forests.     

A DEA approach to assess the efficiency of radiata pine logs to produce New Zealand structural grades

An efficiency analysis revealed the relative magnitude of wood traits that distinguishes efficient radiata pine logs to produce New Zealand structural grades. Technical and cost efficiencies were obtained by using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Wood trait prices used to perform the cost efficiency corresponded to economic weights derived from a partial regression. These values were 1.1, 29.7, 0.3 and ?0.4 NZ $/m³ for small end diameter (cm), stiffness (GPa), basic density (kg/m³) and largest branch (mm) respectively. The most efficient logs were those with the highest difference between recovery value and price. There were positive and significant correlations between technical efficiency and wood stiffness (0.46, p < 0.05) and between cost efficiency and log recovery value (0.85, p < 0.05). The most efficient logs had a ratio of 1:4 between stiffness and small end diameter whereas logs that did not generate structural lumber presented ratios close to 1:8. This information will inform the development of breeding objectives, and help segregating and pricing logs by using traits patterns that result in efficient logs for the production of structural wood.     

Local ecological knowledge reveals effects of policy-driven land use and cover change on beekeepers in Costa Rica

Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.     

Assessing costs and benefits of pest management on forested landbases in eastern and western Canada

To assist pest management planning, the Canadian Forest Service developed the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS), which quantifies the timber supply impacts of protecting stands against spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation. We incorporated protection costs and timber product values in this system to evaluate economic aspects of spruce budworm control. The analysis allows pest managers to evaluate the degree to which the traditional volume protection priority objective corresponds to three economic criteria, namely the volume protected per dollar protection program cost, the benefit–cost ratio of the protection program, and the net present value of the protection program. Twelve alternative spruce budworm protection strategies were analyzed on Crown License 1 in New Brunswick and Prince Albert Forest Management Area (PAFMA) in Saskatchewan, based on a number of protection program extents and intensities. For both landbases under base-case market conditions, the largest, most intensive protection scenario provided the highest amount of volume saved and net present value (at 3.94 Mm³ and $39.98 M for PAFMA, and 4.04 Mm³ and $41.49 M for License 1, respectively) while smaller, less-intensive programs provided the highest benefit–cost ratios and volume protected per present value dollar of protection cost (at 8.22 and 0.52 m³/$ for PAFMA, and 10.26 and 0.65 m³/$ for License 1, respectively). Sensitivity analysis on product values and protection costs revealed that smaller, less-intensive programs could also produce the highest net present values when costs are higher and/or product values lower. These results highlight the conditions under which pest managers should consider deviating from their traditional strategy of maximizing volume saved to one that maximizes the economic returns of protection.     

Indonesia's moratorium on new forest licenses: An update

In 2011 Indonesia decreed a moratorium on forest licenses over 69 million hectares (Mha) in order to suspend haphazard forest exploitation. However, only ∼12–22 Mha were actually afforded new protection from licensing. Herein I observe a further 5.5 Mha of moratorium area overlapping forest licenses and therefore subject to excisement from the moratorium. These 5.5 Mha, like the 4.5 Mha excised from the moratorium to date, are not readily explicable outside of small government committees. This highlights the quasi-transparency of the mapping process: the moratorium map is widely disseminated, yet its base data and decisions made on their basis are guarded. Implementing ministries seek to comply with reforms while simultaneously protecting their administrations from upset – an ultimately compromised position with tangible implications. This has undermined acceptance by the inherently sceptical Indonesian conservation community; yet its highly critical ‘watch dog’ role has ironically contributed by heightening government wariness. The way out of this dynamic is for the ministries to render all data public and, critically, be prepared to weather the inevitable wave of data-fuelled attack for the public good.     

The financial benefits of forest certification: Case studies of acacia growers and a furniture company in Central Vietnam

The demand for forest products is growing and plantation forests are supplying an increasing proportion of wood to industry. There are also increasing market requirements to demonstrate the sustainability of timber supply. Vietnam has some 3.9 M ha of plantation forests, 44% of which is on short-rotations managed by smallholders. More than 80 percent of the harvested volume from the plantation forests is used for woodchip production to serve domestic and international markets. The Vietnam Government has goals to increase the domestic supply of suitable wood for furniture production to international markets by increasing the supply of larger logs grown in plantations and the supply of certified wood to industry. However, it is not clear that these objectives will necessarily benefit growers and processors. This study compared financial returns from certified and non-certified forest products for: (1) growers with 10-year rotation acacia plantations; and (2) a furniture processing business (battens for chair and table) in Quang Tri Province, Central Vietnam. The data were collected from smallholder tree growers and a sawmilling company, triangulated with and supplemented by formal and informal interviews with other stakeholders. Currently, much of the cost of certification is met by external aid donors. Results showed that net returns from both certified and non-certified timber products are positive for both actors and are higher from certified timber production than non-certified timber production. When the full costs of certification are included, the benefits to growers of certification are much reduced and potentially negative unless the fixed costs can be spread over a large group of growers. A minimum of group with 3000 ha may be required to make certification cost effective. In recent years, the price difference between the certified and non-certified logs is narrowing and this may discourage farmers from attaining certification. For the sawmiller, the benefit of certified timber production is greater. It would be in their interests to increase prices paid to growers for certified logs. Government policy measures to support certification should include consideration of who bears the cost, support for aggregation of smallholder growers and improved communication in timber supply chains.     

The impact of forest management plans on trees and carbon: Modeling a decade of harvesting data in Cameroon

By 2010, about 25% (180 million ha) of The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) producer countries’ permanent forest estate was being managed using an approved forest management plan (FMP). While the existence of a FMP is often used as evidence of sustainable forest management (SFM), State officials mandated to monitor and verify FMPs’ implementation often lack the technical knowledge and political incentives to assess the changes that have been introduced, notably in terms of harvested volumes and species. Among tropical timber producers, Cameroon is considered to be exemplary for its progressive forest regulatory framework. Here we aim to estimate for the first time in sub-Saharan Africa the causal impact of the implementation of FMPs on harvested volumes, species and carbon stocks. We do so by using a 12-year (1998–2009) unbalanced longitudinal data set of a detailed, official harvesting inventory of 81 concessions in Cameroon. Results provide evidence to the theoretical expectations that for many years many practitioners have had on the implementation of SFM, i.e. that FMPs show a substantial opportunity to reduce carbon emissions from forest while presenting logging companies with acceptable financial trade-offs. We explore the technical and political reasons for our findings and conclude that these analyses are important for countries that are underwriting carbon-related schemes in which they propose to reduce their emissions through the effective implementation of SFM. We also demonstrate that producer countries do record useful information that, when effectively used, can help them to inform their policies and improve their sustainable development strategies.     

Economic impacts of adjacency and green-up constraints on timber production at a landscape scale

Although many different forest certification standards exist, harvest adjacency and green-up regulations are common to most certifying bodies. This study develops a means for evaluating trade-offs associated with implementation of nth-order adjacency and green-up constraints on a 1.7 million ha landscape in Oregon in the US. Depending on the type of adjacency structure and delay between harvests, the opportunity cost of the restrictions, estimated by the change in discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the regional log market, ranged from 0.25% to 66% (or US $60 million to $15.3 billion) of the unconstrained value. Increasing green-up delays beyond 30–40 years had little effect on estimated opportunity cost of the modeled restrictions.     

Changes of livelihood due to land use shifts: A case study of Yanchang County in the Loess Plateau of China

Studies of land use policies are commonly based on the environmental impacts or on people's direct responses to the policies. However, research on the impact of policy implementation on people's livelihood and activities and the subsequent economic development of an area is incomplete. We selected Yanchang County as an example to track land use changes and their effects on the livelihood of the local population following the implementation of a new land use policy known as the Grain for Green Project (GGP). The data were collected from statistical yearbooks, questionnaire surveys, and satellite imagery from 1990, 2000, and 2008. We found that dramatic land use changes have occurred in Yanchang County. The vegetation coverage improved significantly from 1990 to 2008, as the grassland and forest areas increased from 44.1% to 60.1% and from 17.7% to 18.4% of the total land area, respectively. The cultivated land declined from 37.3% to 20.7%. With the agricultural area and grain production decreasing from 64 × 10³ tons to slightly over 20 × 10³ tons per year, an increasing number of local people sought employment in towns and cities. The non-farm income increased, and the local income structure shifted. Migrant and orchard worker income contributed the most to the balance of the total household income. We narrowed our focus to discuss how the GGP accelerated the changes in the participants’ lifestyles and what might be done to sustain the long-term effects of the GGP. While the GGP has brought about considerable environmental benefits, a comprehensive study of environmental–social systems is still needed to achieve a more efficient land use policy. The research results presented in this paper demonstrate that changes in land use and people's activities were triggered by policy changes. We aim to pave the way for studies on the “policy-land-use-social development” chain and to provide references for new policies.     

Analysing foregone costs of communities and carbon benefits in small scale community based forestry practice in Nepal

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation and sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon (REDD+) are considered to be important cost effective approaches for global climate change mitigation; therefore, such practices are evolving as the REDD+ payment mechanism in developing countries. Using six years (2006–2012) data, this paper analyses trade-offs between carbon stock gains and the costs incurred by communities in generating additional carbon in 105 REDD+ pilot community forests in Nepal. It estimates foregone benefits for communities engaged in increasing carbon stocks in various dominant vegetation types. At recent carbon and commodity prices, communities receive on average US$ 0.47/ha/year of carbon benefits with the additional cost of US$ 67.30/ha/year. One dollar’s worth of community cost resulted 0.23 Mg of carbon sequestration. Therefore, carbon payment alone may not be an attractive incentive within small-scale community forestry and should link with payments for ecosystem services. Moreover, the study found highest community sacrificed benefits in Shorea mixed broadleaf forests and lowest in Schima-Castanopsis forests, while carbon benefits were highest in Pine forests followed by Schima-Castanopsis forests and lowest in Rhododendron-Quercus forests. This indicates that costs and benefits may vary by vegetation type. A policy should consider payment for other environmental services, carbon gains, co-benefits and trade off while designing the REDD+ mechanism in community based forest land use practice with equitable community outcomes. The learning from this study will help in the formulation of an appropriate REDD+ policy for community forestry.     

An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis

In this study, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained land-use allocation (IFCC-LUA) model is developed for sustainable urban land-use planning management and land use policy analysis under uncertainty. This method is based on an integration of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy flexible linear programming (FFLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) techniques. Complexities in land-use planning management system can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method is applied to planning land-use allocation practice in Nanjing city, China. The objective of the IFCC-LUA is maximizing net benefit from LUA system and the main constraints include investment constraints, land suitability constraints, water/power consumption constraints and wastewater/solid waste capacity constraints. Modeling results indicate that desired system benefit will be between [1.34, 1.74] × 10¹² yuan under the minimum violating probabilities; the optimized areas of commercial land, industrial land, agricultural land, transportation land, residential land, water land, green land, landfill land and unused land will be [290, 393] hm², [176, 238] hm², [3245, 4390] hm², [126, 170] hm², [49, 66] hm², [1241, 1679] hm², [102, 138] hm², [7, 10] hm² and [178, 241] hm². They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired land use policies under various system-reliability constraints of economic development requirement and environmental capacity of pollutant. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint violation risks can also be tackled.