Rural Futures: Alternative Scenarios for French Rural Society to 2020

The foresight approach presented in this article is a contribution to a work programme set up by the French land planning agency (DATAR) on the theme'Land planning for the France of 2020'. The future of rural space is a matter of concern because of the rapid economic polarization movement towards the metropolis and surroundings, observed over the last three decades. This movement threatens the viability of rural space. The foresight study is based on scenario building. Rural space is seen as a system that ensures various functions: residence, production, nature. Each function and the global context are considered as subsystems driven by a set of key variables. Combining the various modalities of any subsystem variables allows us to build partial scenarios. In turn, these partial scenarios are combined to design four global scenarios describing the possible futures of the French rural space:'a generalized residential countryside', characterized by a marked increase in urban spread; 'sustainable towns and large farms', where rural areas are organized according to the interest of farmers;'towards the nature countryside', a breaking scenario where the priority is to meet environmental challenges; and'active and competitive rural areas', emphasizing the role of local productive systems. Policy makers have many choices and can shape the countryside's picture in the next decade.     

乡村振兴:农村转型、结构转型和政府职能

农村发展过程有其共性规律和区域差异。本文首先以亚洲主要国家为例,分析了农村转型和结构转型存在的共性问题及其与农村发展的关系;其次基于40年中国农村发展改革经验,分析了农村转型路径与转型效果以及与农村转型各阶段相适应的的制度安排、政策支持和投资重点;基于以上分析,本文提出在乡村振兴过程中,要加速农村转型速度,促进高值农业发展和农民增收;加速结构转型速度,促进农村劳动力非农就业和农业劳动生产率的大幅提升;要转变政府职能,通过制度创新、政策创新和投资创新,加快农村转型和结构转型,促进乡村振兴战略的顺利实施;不同地区加速农村转型不能搞一刀切;同时也提出未来需要深入研究的重大理论和政策问题。     

发展乡村旅游:解决农村民生问题的一种路径选择

解决民生问题是当前贯彻落实科学发展观、构建社会主义和谐社会面临的重大课题,更是党和国家政治生活的主题。农村的民生问题包括了农村就业创业、农村社会保障等诸多方面。发展乡村旅游,是解决农村民生问题的一种路径选择。     

农村能人与农村发展

本文以中西部农村能人和浙江农村能人的抽样调查数据为基础,研究中国农村能人的规模、特征及多元作用。笔者认为,新农村建设的微观基础是村域经济,而农村能人在村域经济发展中起着关键作用;农民的效仿学习机制和农村能人的先试先行精神和物质条件,把农村能人推到了村域经济发展的领头人地位。在此基础上,本文就农村能人的能力建设、成长环境等问题,提出了若干政策建议。     

Rural Chile Transformed: Lights and Shadows

Rural society in Chile has undergone profound change over the past few decades. For centuries, large haciendas had dominated Chile's Central Valley. The agrarian reforms carried out by Frei and Allende – and to a greater extent the counter‐reform of Pinochet – transformed that property structure with its generalized system of agricultural production for the domestic market. Recently, there has been a marked shift in emphasis towards specialization, exports and off‐farm agricultural resources. A seasonal labour market has arisen, employing predominantly female workers, whose precarious work conditions stand in marked contrast to the success of Chilean agricultural exports. This paper reviews the main trends in Chilean agriculture and rural society, drawing on data gathered principally in Colchagua Province, which is known for its fine export wines.     

农村金融供求失衡与政策调整--广东东莞、惠州、梅州调查

对广东省东莞、惠州、梅州三地的农村金融供求状况的调查显示,经济发展水平不同,“三农”问题的表现形式就不同,金融需求也不同。针对日益增长的三类不同的金融需求,两类金融供给的缺口明显加大:正式的金融安排越来越难以满足金融需求,非正式金融安排的发展又受到遏制,由此产生了金融供给和需求在总量和结构上的错位。根据农村金融需求安排农村金融供给,因地制宜地调整农村信用社的地位,发挥民间组织的作用,将更切合中国农村金融发展的实际。     

乡村社会资本与农户宅基地退出——基于江西省余江区522户农户样本

研究目的:基于江西省余江区522份农户调研数据,揭示社会资本因素在农户退出宅基地决策中的影响机理,以期为同类型地区提供合理化的政策建议。研究方法:描述性统计分析法和Ivprobit模型。研究结果:乡村社会资本所包含的社会信任、社会网络、社会规范3个维度在农户宅基地退出过程中发挥着重要作用,平均边际效应分别为0.022、0.043和0.053;社会网络在社会规范对农户宅基地退出的影响中发挥了增强性调节作用。研究结论:引导农户自愿有序退出宅基地应找到符合农村社会现实的着力点,提升农户社会信任水平,扩大农户社会网络,发挥社会规范的驱动作用。     

Stories of Rural Accumulation in Africa: Trajectories and Transitions among Rural Capitalists in Senegal

This paper analyzes primary qualitative evidence from life histories of rural capitalists in contemporary Senegal. Various common themes in the declining literature on rural capitalism in Africa are discussed with reference to the specific individual trajectories of rural farm capitalists in Senegal. The themes include the emergence of rural capitalism in the context of protracted, uneven and gradual rural social differentiation and the various processes that have accompanied it; the condition of 'entrepreneurship' in such changing historical contexts; the symbiotic relationship between different spaces (loci) of accumulation, especially trade, transport and farming and the historical context in which they take place; the crucial but sometimes contradictory role of the state in spurring or constraining rural capitalist accumulation; and the variety of 'idioms of accumulation', which reflect transitions and synthesis between non-capitalist and capitalist forms of labour surplus appropriation at the level of individual capitalists, despite some uniformity in the general logic of capital and the spread of capitalist relations of production and exchange. The paper also discusses the methodological power and limitations of oral narratives as a method to gather evidence on long-term processes of agrarian change and accumulation in rural Africa. Finally, the life histories shed some light on the origins of rural capitalists and show that there is a combination of instances of 'capitalism from above' and 'from below' but that no dominant pattern can be clearly discerned at least in the space of one or two generations.     

Rural Banking and Landless Labour Households: Institutional Reform and Rural Credit Markets in India

Financial liberalization is a key component of programmes of orthodox structural adjustment. Financial reforms include, among other things, the removal of controls on interest rates and the abolition of programmes of directed credit. Here the effect of financial sector reform on rural banking and rural credit transactions in India is examined, with particular reference to landless labour households. First, the trends in selected indicators of rural banking at the national level over the last 30 years are reviewed. Secondly, longitudinal data for a village in Tamil Nadu are used to examine changes in patterns of indebtedness and credit transactions among landless labour households. It is argued that the exploitation of landless labour households in the credit market has intensified with the introduction of financial reforms. Lastly, the policy envisaged as an alternative to the formal credit sector in the countryside – the establishment of micro–credit projects – is examined critically.     

乡村旅游开发:我国城市反哺农村的理想途径

以城市和乡村这两种不同类型的人类集居地域对比为基础,从乡村旅游的本质和特性着手,探讨其在我国城市反哺农村中的产业优势与产业适宜性。认为乡村旅游通过吸引城市居民直接到农村地区异地消费而巧妙地实现城乡之间财富的隐形调拨,是平衡地区经济的天然杠杆;乡村旅游主要以乡村环境和物产以及遍在性的山水和风土民情为物质基础,从而使得绝大多数农村地区都具备发展条件,堪称为农村地区"量身订造"的新型产业;乡村旅游还因就地取材和游客主动上门而能获得既靠近原料地、又靠近消费市场的产业布局效应;乡村旅游业发展条件的门槛较低,是落后的农村地区可进入性较好的产业。     

构筑农村社会安全网：缓解农村贫困的战略性制度创新

本文将贫困与风险相联系,认为贫困是一个静态的、容易具体描述的现象,是标;而风险则是动态的,难以预知的,是本。风险—脆弱性—贫困是认识贫困现象的一个重要视角,因而也为反贫困战略提供了一个全新的切入点构建社会安全网,阻隔或切断风险与贫困之间的紧密联系,从而降低或消除穷人的脆弱性。本文在对社会安全网的概念进行界定的基础上,分析了当前我国农村构建社会安全网的迫切性和时机条件,最后提出了构建社会安全网的若干设想。     

农村土地流转的再审视——以农村人多地少的基本矛盾为视角

研究目的:对农村土地法律制度缺陷和中国农村土地是否可以大规模流转进行研究。研究方法:综述文献资料进行综合分析。研究结果:现有农村土地法律制度缺陷的相关研究,无益于中国农村人多地少主要矛盾的根本解决。以提高劳动生产率为目标的农村土地产权和流转改革,会产生大量的农村剩余劳动力,加剧农村矛盾和激活社会动荡。研究结论:基本保持现有农村土地制度,慎谈农村土地的大规模流转。