扩大农业对外投资 加快实施“走出去”战略

本文通过对我国农业对外直接投资的总体状况及其特点分析发现,农业对外直接投资对我国产业转型升级、出口业绩改善、国民收入提高、就业机会增加等方面产生积极影响,但也存在一些潜在的风险。通过剖析我国农业对外直接投资面临的机遇与挑战,对农业对外直接投资的战略选择进行了初步设计,并提出了相关政策建议。     

Does agricultural official development assistance facilitate foreign direct investment in agriculture: Evidence from 63 developing countries

Although past studies have separately explored the direct impact of agriculture official development assistance (ODA) and foreign development investment (FDI) on agricultural production, the nexus between these two elements is often neglected. This article aims to understand the linkage between agricultural ODA and FDI, using data from 63 developing countries from 1991 to 2019. Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimations reveal that agricultural ODA considerably promotes FDI in the agriculture, fishery and forestry sectors (FDI_aff) by approximately 0.5%, while its impact on FDI in the food, beverages and tobacco industries (FDI_fbt) is overall insignificant. Geographical and ecological conditions play a decisive role in accounting for FDI in agriculture. While coastal and land-rich countries receive a significantly higher amount of FDI_aff and FDI_fbt, tropical countries are evidently more attractive destinations for FDI_fbt. The empirical analysis also shows that a peaceful social environment encourages FDI_aff. Well-established legal systems and reductions in corruption facilitate FDI_aff, whereas the impact of overall institutional quality on agricultural FDI is insignificant. Results suggest that donors prioritise agricultural initiatives with higher positive spillover effects, such as programmes supporting food crop production and agricultural research.     

Social Organization,Civic Responsibility and Collective Action: Game Theory Models of Community Participation in Development Projects

This paper assesses the extent to which foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries crowds in or crowds out domestic investment. The core of the paper is the development of a theoretical model for investment that includes a FDI variable and its estimation and testing with panel data for the period 1971–2000 and the three decades involved. The model is run for 12 countries in each of three developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America). The results indicate that, in all three developing regions, FDI has, at best, left domestic investment unchanged, and that there are several sub-periods for specific regions where FDI displaces domestic investment. In particular, there seems to be crowding out of domestic investment by FDI in Latin America. If these results are in fact correct, they suggests the need for policies to make FDI more effective in enhancing domestic investment in developing countries. The conclusion is that the effects of FDI on domestic investment are by no means always favourable, that simplistic policies towards FDI are unlikely to be optimal and, foremost, that more attention needs to be paid to economic policies that foster the domestic component of total investment.     

Price or politics? An investigation of the causes of expropriation*

Expropriations of foreign direct investment in developing countries are typically blamed on political and economic crises in those countries. Developing a new database of expropriations in the minerals sectors of developing country exporters, I show that expropriations were correlated with mineral price booms and that democratic governments were more likely to expropriate. No link is found between expropriations and political or economic crises, except at independence. A better explanation of expropriation would be opportunistic behaviour by host governments when profits of investments are high. In two developed countries, Australia and Canada, expropri‐ations are also found to occur during price booms.     

The Internationalization of Firms From India: Investment,Mergers and Acquisitions

This paper analyses the rapid expansion in outflows of foreign direct investment from India and the spurt in foreign acquisitions by Indian firms, during the past decade, situated in the wider context of international investment from developing countries. Much of the investment was in manufacturing activities and most of the acquisitions were in industrialized countries. The economic stimulus and the strategic motive for the internationalization of firms from India were provided by a range of underlying factors driving the process, which differed across sectors and firms. The rapid growth in investment and acquisitions by Indian firms were partly attributable to factors implicit in the liberalization of the policy regime and the greater access to financial markets; but it must be recognized that Indian firms could not have become international without the capacity and the ability to compete in the world market. The attributes of Indian firms, which created such capacities and abilities, are embedded in the past and have emerged over a much longer period of time.     

Measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China: pattern and drivers over the period of 1978‐2016

The Chinese agricultural sector has experienced a substantial increase in total output since dramatic reforms were introduced in 1978. This paper uses the index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for China’s crop and livestock industries, based on the gross output model from 1978 to 2016. We construct production accounts for the industries using input‐output relationships for the 26 main agricultural commodities and commodity groups, which account for over 90 per cent of the total agricultural inputs and outputs. The results show that China’s agricultural TFP grew at a rate of approximately 2.4 per cent a year before 2009, which is comparable to the main OECD countries and is double the world average. TFP growth accounts for approximately 40 per cent of output growth, suggesting that input growth was the main driver of output growth in the past. However, average productivity growth slowed down after 2009 though it has gradually recovered since 2012. The slowdown reflects the emerging challenges to existing farm production practices in Chinese agriculture, suggesting the need for further institutional reform.     

India as a Source of Outward Foreign Direct Investment

While India is an increasingly attractive destination for foreign capital, the country is also becoming a significant source of outflows. Many Indian enterprises view outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) as an important dimension of their corporate strategies. This paper presents some data on the magnitude and composition of Indian OFDI. It also discusses the rationale for and empirical determinants of overseas acquisitions by Indian companies. The empirical findings suggest that OFDI from India is not entirely different from that of other countries in that they are motivated by many common factors. There is evidence, however, that Indian OFDI is more market- and resource-seeking than OFDI from most other countries. The paper concludes with a broader discussion of the impact of the global rise of Indian companies on the Indian economy.     

Does Agriculture Really Matter for Economic Growth in Developing Countries?

This paper revisits the debate on the role of agriculture in promoting economic growth in a selection of nine developing countries. We investigated the causal linkages between agriculture and gross domestic product growth with the aid of directed acyclic graphs, a recently developed algorithm of inductive causation. The results suggest that while agriculture could be an engine of economic growth, the impact varies across countries. In some cases, we found strong evidence in support of the agriculture‐led growth hypothesis. In contrast, the results for some other countries indicate that having a vibrant aggregate economy is a prerequisite for agricultural development.     

Labor issues and COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted Canada and several other countries to impose an economic shutdown to prevent a deadly public health crisis from becoming much deadlier. In the agriculture and food sector, several hundred thousand restaurant workers have lost their jobs. The rise in unemployment, the closing of restaurants and schools, and social distancing have triggered demand reductions for certain commodities and foods and demand increases for others, bringing along changes in demand for inputs including labor. Canadian employers of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) are facing delays and additional constraints in recruiting, but so have US and European employers of TFWs. Rising food security concerns are making protectionist trade policies popular. Domestic and foreign firms may export less and do more foreign direct investment, inducing trade in jobs.     

中国农业走出去的基本特征、问题与建议

目的 通过分析中国农业走出去的基本情况，总结归纳当前中国农业走出去基本特征和进一步发展的主要问题，并根据主要农产品（农资）国内市场需求程度以及推动走出去的作用，分类给出针对性政策建议。方法 文章运用描述性统计和交叉分析方法，基于对外农业投资数据，结合中国农业走出去在投资区域、投资产业、投资主体和投资方式上的基本特征，分析限制中国农业走出去水平进一步提升的主要问题。结果 中国农业走出去的主要问题表现为：原料进口高度集中且不稳定，经贸摩擦频繁发生；农业走出去企业将强未强，投资产业链短且处于低端；产能转移产业大而不强，科技含量低；内外政策衔接不畅，部门间政策不协调等四方面。结论 因此，建议分类施策，针对直接消费型进口农产品应进一步开放市场，合理预测市场缺口，利用国内市场规模优势培育大型跨国企业；针对原料进口型农产品应推动内外市场产业链对接，加强政策试验，升级“三区”打造总部基地；针对产能转移型农产品应以科技创新为突破点，提高服务贸易的助推剂作用，推动产业阶梯转移促国内高质量发展。     

基于多视角群组划分“一带一路”沿线重要节点国家农业合作研究

[目的]基于多视角开展"一带一路"沿线国家群组划分,提出"一带一路"农业国际合作重要战略节点国家,并探讨新冠肺炎疫情对重要战略节点国家与我国农业国际合作的影响,对进一步促进我国与"一带一路"沿线国家全面农业国际合作,打破农业国际合作瓶颈具有重要意义。[方法]文章通过地理位置、地缘政治、资源禀赋、农产品贸易等多个角度,结合引力模型和聚类分析法,对"一带一路"农业国际合作的重要战略节点国家进行分析。并从农产品贸易和投资两个角度探讨新冠肺炎疫情对重要战略节点国家和我国农业国际合作的影响。[结果]在"一带一路"沿线国家中,我国农业合作的重要战略节点国家按重要性划分为两个层次,第一层次为俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、波兰、缅甸、越南、泰国、巴基斯坦、埃及、印度尼西亚和马来西亚;第二层次为希腊、柬埔寨和老挝。新冠肺炎疫情对重要战略节点国家和我国的农业贸易、投资合作造成了不可忽略的影响。[结论]为进一步加强我国与"一带一路"重要战略节点国家农业国际合作,应在十九大提出的"六个坚持"理念指引下,从基础设施建设、资源禀赋、部门协调、共同抗疫四个方面,继续深化"一带一路"农业国际合作。     

A review of the economic impact of malaria in agricultural development

This paper surveys the linkages between malaria and agriculture, focusing on the economic impacts of the disease. We adopt Negin's (2005) conceptual framework to examine the potential impacts of malaria in the agricultural sector, including both direct and indirect impacts. In addition to health care costs, malaria causes loss of agricultural labor and slows adoption of improved practices in agriculture. Furthermore, some agricultural practices and development interventions are known to facilitate the spread of malaria, exacerbating its impacts. Given the importance of both agriculture and malaria in developing countries, especially in Africa, the interaction between them could be a significant factor in economic growth. The review identifies gaps in past research on this topic. A better understanding of malaria's impact on agricultural productivity, coupled with efforts to strengthen capacity to deal with malaria, would enhance policies and programs aimed at combating malaria and curbing its impacts on agricultural productivity.     

Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries

For stimulating sustainable development in developing countries, land use patterns and land use changes are considered critical, and therefore effective and efficient land use policies are needed. In this paper we present a methodological framework that has been developed in a joint European and developing countries project (LUPIS – Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries), to assess the impact of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries. An illustrative application is presented for a case study in China, where water pollution due to agriculture in Taihu Basin is a major problem.     

FDI and income inequality in Africa

This paper tests the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on income inequality in a panel of 16 African countries from 1980 to 2013. We controlled for both non-linear effects and heterogeneity by using a Pooled Mean Group estimator. There is robust evidence that the relationship is non-linear and we document a U-shaped effect of FDI on inequality. The results reveal that FDI increases equality of distribution of income in the countries examined. However, this effect diminishes with further increases in FDI. Policy implications emanating from this study suggest that although FDI may be growth enhancing, FDI-induced growth may not necessarily translate into a reduction in inequality. FDI has to be structured in such way that the resulting skill-biased employed is mitigated. To address inequality, policy implications from this study imply that FDI has to target both ends of the labour market.     

The political economy of public research investment and commodity policies in agriculture: an empirical study

The paper tests a political economy theory of simultaneous government decision‐making on income redistribution through commodity policies and on public research investment in agriculture. We use data from 37 countries on agricultural protection and public agricultural research expenditures (PARI). The empirical results are consistent with the political economy hypotheses. The analysis suggest that structural changes in the economy have important effects on the political incentives for governments not only to subsidize or tax farmers, but also to invest in public agricultural research. Furthermore, the analysis supports the hypotheses that the impact of such structural changes on government decision‐making on PARI is non‐linear and conditional on other factors. Regarding the impact of political institutions, the results suggest that more democracy neither leads to more distortionary transfers (agricultural protection), nor to lower investment in public goods (PARI). ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

Fair Trade and Organic Agriculture in Developing Countries: A Review

Fair trade regimes and organic agricultural systems are 2 innovations that increasingly play an important role for agriculture in developing countries. Whereas fair trade regimes have their origin in the developing countries, organic agriculture was started in the rich countries and has only recently become popular in the Third World. Both innovations can be mutually reinforcing as fair trade often combined with organic production standards opens up new market prospects. In this article we explore the opportunities and constraints of marketing organic products from developing countries under fair trade regimes. Based on available literature, we review evidence of the magnitude of organic production and fair trade systems in developing countries. We also propose a framework for studying the impact of fair traded organically produced commodities using the case of black pepper in India. The framework will generate testable hypotheses regarding the 2 innovations.     

Foreign direct investment‐facilitated development: the case of the natural gas industry of Trinidad and Tobago

Since the last decade, governments in less‐developed countries have increasingly viewed foreign direct investment (FDI) as a catalyst for economic growth and transformation. The early literature argues that FDI‐facilitated development occurs when a less‐developed country assimilates, adapts and diffuses the positive externalities arising from the interaction of the multinational enterprise's (MNE) ownership advantage with its locational attributes. This paper, however, posits that FDI‐facilitated development is not an effortless process. It occurs only when host developing‐country governments implement intervention policies that are aimed at increasing indigenous technological capabilities. These policies enhance the absorptive capacity of host countries, allowing them to capture the spillovers arising from the MNE activities. The paper explores this for Trinidad and Tobago, a recipient of substantial FDI inflows in its natural gas industry for the last decade. It shows that FDI‐facilitated development only occurs when governments in less‐developed countries pursue credible intervention policies.     

Will the TRIPS Agreement Foster Appropriate Biotechnologies for Developing Countries?

While almost all of the investment in agricultural biotechnology to date has been in temperate crops suitable for developed countries, developing countries are the greatest potential beneficiaries of this major technological advance. To realise this potential requires investment in crops appropriate to climatic and agronomic conditions in developing countries. Protection of intellectual property rights is a necessary condition for the private sector to invest in appropriate biotechnologies. This paper develops a game theoretic model of a bioscience firm that adapts a new technology to a range of agronomic conditions in response to the enforcement of intellectual property rights in a developed and a developing country. Over a range of potential penalties, low levels of enforcement by the developing country remain endemic despite the desire to have the bioscience firm adapt the biotechnology to its local conditions. In particular, the trade penalties contained in the Agreement on Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights are likely to be ineffective. The developing country might increase enforcement if the developed country was more aggressive in liberalising agriculture trade because there would be greater symmetry in the benefits of the technology.     

自然资源禀赋与经济发展的悖论——发展中国家经济现状成因及发展方向的探讨

自然资源丰裕国家与其不良经济发展现状的相悖现象由来已久,特别是现今的许多发展中国家都拥有着相当丰富的自然资源。贸易模式和人力资本投资是悖论产生的直接和间接原因,更进一步,良好的政策制定和政治性推动机制在发展中国家经济发展之初尤为重要。     

The economic impact of productivity maintenance research: breeding for leaf rust resistance in modern wheat⋆

This paper reports the results of a study undertaken to estimate the economic impact in developing countries of efforts by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) to breed leaf rust resistant spring bread wheat varieties since 1973. The challenge in estimating these benefits lies in the pathogen's ability to mutate to new races, which may infect previously resistant varieties. Genetic resistance, rather than fungicide application, is the principal means of controlling leaf rust in developing countries. Whereas productivity enhancement is often estimated in terms of yield gains and increased supply, productivity maintenance is measured in terms of the yield losses avoided by the research investment. The internal rate of return on CIMMYT's research investment was estimated at 41%. When discounted by 5%, the net present value was US$ 5.36 billion in 1990 dollars, and the benefit‐cost ratio was 27:l. These findings emphasise the economic importance of maintenance research in crop breeding programs.