An empirical framework to study food labelling fraud: an application to the Italian extra‐virgin olive oil market

The mislabelling of agricultural and food products is one of the most common types of food fraud. Despite the frequency with which labelling fraud occurs, there is no empirical framework to study its welfare implications, the probability that it may occur, and the measures that can limit its occurrence. We present an empirical framework to study the economic consequences of food labelling fraud in a differentiated products food market. Such framework requires the availability of sales data and the use of an ‘attribute‐space' demand model. The model is applied to the Italian extra‐virgin olive oil market to simulate the occurrence of fraudulent ‘100 per cent Italian' claims. Our results indicate that potential consumer losses due to overpayments for a false claim are higher than manufacturer gains, suggesting that labelling fraud results in welfare losses and not just in welfare transfers. Simulation results indicate that the level of the current administrative fines is not likely to be effective to discourage ‘100 per cent Italian' labelling fraud. Imposing larger fines or other measures negatively affecting a firm's image could be more effective in deterring labelling fraud.     

Markets and welfare effects of food fraud

This study develops a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers and imperfectly competitive food companies to analyse the system‐wide market and welfare effects of food fraud in the form of food adulteration and mislabelling. The results show that, while the price impacts of food fraud are product‐specific with the equilibrium prices of high‐quality and low‐quality products moving in different directions, the equilibrium quantities depend on the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. Regarding the welfare effects of food fraud, they are shown to be highly asymmetric across different consumers and producers. In addition to enabling the disaggregation of the welfare effects of food fraud, the explicit consideration of agent heterogeneity, asymmetries in the probability of fraud detection and the endogeneity of the producer quality choices also enables the derivation of a key result of this study; contrary to what is traditionally believed, both low‐quality and high‐quality producers can have economic incentives to commit fraud. The group that is more likely to cheat is determined by the social attitudes towards fraudulent behaviour, the enforcement policy parameters and the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. A comparison of the market effects of mislabelling and food adulteration reveals that, while the equilibrium quantity of the high‐quality product is higher in the presence of mislabelling, producers are more likely to mislabel than adulterate their products.     

Slotting Allowances as a Facilitating Practice by Food Processors in Wholesale Grocery Markets: Profitability and Welfare Effects

Slotting allowances, which are lump-sum transfers paid by food manufacturers to grocery retailers in return for various retail concessions, are becoming increasingly common in wholesale grocery markets. This article extends the literature on slotting allowances by considering two features that previously have been ignored: the role of food processors in determining these pricing arrangements, and the effect of slotting allowances on the size and distribution of economic surplus. Slotting allowances motivated by food processors increase procurement quantities and farm prices, and this raises farm surplus, increases total producer surplus, and improves consumer welfare in the food system.     

Economic impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

In this research, we use econometric analysis to estimate the impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on international wheat and corn prices. Using these results, we assess the economic value of the treaty to the global food system, as well as the regional distribution of the associated welfare savings. We find that the Russian Invasion created economic costs of approximately $116.05 billion in the global wheat and corn markets. In the international wheat market, the Black Sea Grain Initiative reduced prices by 7.9%, offsetting approximately $21.48 billion of these costs. The largest winners from the Initiative outside Ukraine are primarily in the developing world, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. We do not observe any economically meaningful impacts of the Initiative in the international corn market.     

Are We Moving Towards Functioning Agricultural Markets and Trade Relations?

We introduce a special feature on the functioning of international agricultural markets. This feature is motivated by the increased interest in the functioning of commodity markets raised by unprecedented price turbulences since 2008, major structural changes through changed roles of emerging economies and related concerns regarding food security. We argue that the delineation of non‐functioning markets from markets that adequately adjusted to adverse framework conditions lacks theoretical foundation. We discuss the relevance of some results on institutions for agricultural markets in emerging and transition countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics that span a topical range covering price formation on world and domestic markets, market power and trade policy modelling.     

Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector

A foot‐and‐mouth disease outbreak, although having a low probability of occurrence, results in losses of export markets and introduces considerable potential disease management and eradication costs. We develop a dynamic model that integrates beef cattle production, disease dissemination, domestic consumption, and international trade and captures the intertemporal economic welfare impacts of mitigation measures. The model is applied to the case of a hypothetical outbreak in Canada to capture changes in producer profits, consumer price, and government costs due to the outbreak and sums these to measure changes in total economic welfare of the beef industry. Mitigation scenarios are reported for stamping‐out, movement controls, vaccination, and preemptive slaughter.     

EU and US Regulations for Handling and Transporting Genetically Modified Grains: Are Both Positions Correct?

Differences in the way GM grains are treated in the US and the EU motivate the question of whether there is a single correct policy towards identification of such products. This issue is addressed here, based on a mathematical model that assumes that the cost of maintaining identity on non-GM markets is borne by the non-GM industry. The economic welfare impacts of introducing GM technology depend on the levels of consumer concern and production cost savings, and the cost of maintaining non-GM grain identity. The introduction of a new cost-reducing GM technology often increases total welfare as one might expect. However, society loses when GM production cost-savings are small and consumers are highly concerned about GM grain because introducing GM technology creates a need to preserve the identity of non-GM grain. Taken together, the results suggest that the US may have maximized welfare by not requiring labeling of GM corn and soybeans, and that the recently approved EU legislation enforcing labeling of GM crops also makes sense in the EU. The reason for this is that consumer concern in the EU appears to be greater than in the US, and fewer EU producers stand to benefit from cost savings in GM corn and soybean production.     

The Effect of Cooperatives on Quality‐Enhancing Innovation

This paper develops game‐theoretic models of heterogeneous consumers to analyse the effect of cooperatives on quality‐enhancing product innovation activity, the pricing of food products and the welfare of the groups involved, in the context of a mixed duopoly where an open‐membership consumer co‐op competes with an investor‐owned firm in markets for horizontally differentiated products. Analytical results show that the involvement of the member welfare‐maximising co‐op in innovation activity can change the nature of product differentiation and the structure of the market, and be quality and welfare enhancing by increasing innovation activity and reducing the prices of food products. The effects of co‐operative involvement are shown to depend on the degree of consumer heterogeneity and the size of innovation costs.     

Export Crop Marketing in Tropical Africa

Abstract

Recent developments at the consumer and at the farm level have resulted in a renewed interest in short market channels for fresh food. This paper focuses on consumer valuation of purchasing fresh food from short channels in general and on differences between two distinct types of short channel initiatives, i.e., farmers' markets and food teams as examples of supply- and demand-side driven initiatives respectively. The research methodology builds on the Means-End-Chain theory. Data are collected through laddering interviews with 100 respondents. The general hierarchical value map largely supports classical theories of value structures. “Security” is the predominant value type with “Health” as the major value. Further, a distinct “Hedonism” and “Universalism” cluster are discovered, with the first being built on the attribute “Freshness,” the consequence “Taste” and the value “Pleasure,” and the latter including environmental, animal welfare and regional development concerns. Specific motivation structures dealing with farmers' markets versus food teams are reported. Recommendations pertain to organizational and marketing issues, more specifically product positioning, innovation and communication based on the revealed Means-End-Chains or motivational structures.     

Food Price Pass‐Through and the Role of Domestic Margin Services

The recent volatility in international agricultural markets has drawn attention to the impact of rising international agricultural prices and the induced price‐insulating measures on consumer food prices. Analyses based on simulation models on this topic typically ignore the role of domestic margin services. We extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to allow for variations in the share of domestic margin services in consumed food across countries. This approach enables us to differentiate consumer prices from producer prices. Following the extension, the results show that domestic margin services reduce the consumer food price volatility for all countries, especially in high‐income countries, where the share of domestic margin services in final food consumption is higher. The effect of price‐insulating border policies is also reduced in the extended model. We find that our extension of the GTAP model greatly improves simulations of the 2007 surge in international agricultural prices. We validate our extension of the GTAP model by showing that the econometrically estimated food price pass‐through is decreasing with income and thus, is smaller in high‐income countries.     

Ex Ante Research Evaluation and Regional Trade Flows: Maize in Kenya

Public sector investment in agricultural research is an important component of developing country efforts to bolster staple cereal production in the face of rapid population growth. This paper uses a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the potential impact of maize research in six regions of Kenya. The application highlights the important role of research in meeting future food needs, as well as the geographic variability of producer and consumer benefits from technology and trade policy options. Despite significant research induced supply shifts, Kenya will require additional production increases of 1.5 to 2 per cent per year to meet stated goals of self-sufficiency in maize production with open markets. Import restrictions can ensure self-sufficiency and generate producer welfare gains at greater expense to the majority of Kenyans who are net consumers of maize. In the debate over trade policy, public sector investments in maize research should be seen as a potential mechanism to compensate producers for welfare losses associated with market liberalisation.     

The Patterns and Implications of Increasing Concentration in European Food Retailing

Across the European Union, concentration in food retailing at the national level has been increasing for some time, but increasingly multinational retailers have been extending their international reach. In the process, aggregate concentration has risen sharply over the last few years. In addition, the presence of buyer groups, representing different retail interests, adds to the characterisation of procurement markets as highly concentrated. Also at the aggregate level, cross‐border buyer alliances amongst large retailers have emerged. We consider the implications of these features for the changing patterns of retail competition and the impact on food producers, supplier competition and economic welfare.     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

Welfare impacts of new demand-enhancing agricultural products: The case of Honeycrisp apples

Agricultural research and development programs on new demand-enhancing products have become increasingly important over the past decade. Large numbers of new agricultural products have been developed and commercialized in the United States to meet consumers’ increasingly diverse expectations for food quality. However, little is known about their economic benefits. Focusing on the apple market, we investigate the welfare impacts of the introduction of Honeycrisp apples in a market equilibrium framework. We use market data on apple sales from 61 cities across the United States between 2009 and 2015. We find the introduction of Honeycrisp increased consumer welfare, which is mainly explained by the increased number of total apple varieties. We also find that the introduction of Honeycrisp apples has increased overall market size and total apple sales. To extrapolate our results to the entire U.S. apple market, we perform a back-of-the-envelope analysis and find that the introduction of Honeycrisp apples has increased total consumer welfare by about 859 million dollars during the study period. This corresponds to approximately 19% of the annual average domestic expenditures on public food and agricultural R&D.     

MORE ON WELFARE GAINS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FROM LIBERALIZING WORLD FOOD TRADE

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.     

Economic Effects of the Consumer‐oriented Genetically Modified Products in Markets with a Labelling Regime

This paper builds on the literature on the economic effects of the second‐generation, consumer‐oriented genetically modified products (GMPs). It analyses the market and welfare impacts of the introduction of these new products in markets, like the EU, that mandate the segregation and labelling of the first‐generation, producer‐oriented GMPs. Developing an empirically relevant model of heterogeneous consumers and producers, the study determines the effects of the consumer‐oriented GMPs on the markets of conventional, GM and organic products, and the welfare of consumers and agricultural producers. Analytical results indicate that the market effects of the new GMPs are case specific and depend on: (i) the consumer valuation of the quality‐enhancing attribute of the new GMP; (ii) the level of consumer aversion to GMOs; (iii) the strength of consumer preference for organic products; and (iv) the production costs and marketing margins in the different supply channels. The policy on the labelling of the first‐generation GMPs does not affect the impacts of the second‐generation GMPs on the quantities and market shares of the different products. However, it does affect their price effects and welfare implications. The introduction of consumer‐oriented GMPs under a mandatory labelling regime can result in losses for some GM consumers and all producers of the conventional product.     

国际石油市场变异与中国的能源战略

石油及其制品,无论作为生产中的中间投入,还是用于居民生活消费,都是一次性消费品,石油交易在本原上应属于产品市场.由于期货市场的发展,国际石油市场投机性增强,属性发生变异-从产品市场演变为具有产品市场和虚拟经济市场双重性的市场,并形成经济泡沫.在这样的市场上,消费者要被迫按资产价格购买消费品.这类泡沫很难消除,中国宜调整能源战略,以适应形势,抵御损害,使自己立于不败之地,并谋求长治久安之计.     

Measuring Perceived Performance of the Food System and Consumer Food‐Related Welfare

The paper explores the use of multi‐item summated scales for the measurement of the perceived performance of the food system and of an index to measure consumer food‐related welfare. Scales are developed that encompass a range of factors that influence the welfare consumers derive from food, including food safety, convenience, ethical issues, health and nutrition, taste and cost. These scales are applied to a national sample of food consumers in the United States and the United Kingdom. On the basis of the survey results, there is evidence that the scales are both reliable and valid measures of the perceived performance of the food system in both countries. An index of consumer food‐related welfare is developed that weights the various performance measures according to respondents' measure of importance. Survey respondents judge that the food system is not performing particularly well in either country. Although more work is required on the use of summated multi‐item scales for this purpose, the results suggest that this is a potentially useful approach that provides relevant information on the impact of different elements of the food system on consumer welfare.     

Consumer trust, risk and food safety: A review

Consumers' attitudes to trust and risk are key issues in food safety research and attention needs to be focused on clearly defining a framework for analysing consumer behaviour in these terms. In order to achieve this, a detailed review of the recent literature surrounding risk, trust and the relationship between the two must be conducted. This paper aims to collate the current social sciences literature in the fields of food safety, trust and risk. It provides an insight into the economic and other modelling procedures available to measure consumers' attitudes to risk and trust in food safety and specifically notes the need for future research to concentrate on examining risk and trust as inter-related variables rather than two distinct, mutually exclusive concepts. A framework is proposed which it is hoped will assist in devising more effective research to support risk communication to consumers.     

Organic‐ and Animal Welfare‐labelled Eggs: Competing for the Same Consumers?

To understand the market for sustainable foods, it is important to allow for heterogeneous preferences. However, most studies of consumer preferences for sustainable foods only investigate average consumer preferences. They do not take into account that some consumer segments attempt to purchase as much sustainable food as possible, others are almost indifferent to the notion of sustainable food, and still others consider sustainable food a complete hoax. The aim of this study is to explore the preferences for various types of premium eggs across three consumer segments. We conduct a choice experiment including 900 Norwegian consumers and perform a behavioural segmentation based on the frequency of organic food purchase. We find that the segment purchasing the most organic food is, as expected, willing to pay a significant premium for organic eggs over eggs displaying only enhanced animal welfare. However, most consumers, who only occasionally purchase organic products, are unwilling to pay more for organic eggs than for enhanced animal welfare eggs, suggesting diminishing marginal utility for additional attributes. We find that a third consumer segment attempts to avoid organic eggs, even when they cost the same as other eggs. Our findings suggest that organic products will be unsuccessful in acquiring a larger share of the market as long as most consumers are unwilling to pay a premium for organic products with all their cost increasing sustainable attributes over products that have only a single sustainable attribute, in our case enhanced animal welfare.