《日欧经济合作伙伴关系协定》对我国农产品贸易的影响及对策

由于日本和欧盟均为我国重要农产品贸易伙伴,两者签署《经济合作伙伴关系协定》(以下简称《协定》)将产生贸易转移效应,对我国农产品贸易尤其是出口产生负面影响,不利于巩固我国脱贫成果。文章将在分析日欧农产品关税政策、贸易和《协定》降税情况的基础上,采用GTAP模型定量分析《协定》实施对我国农产品贸易的影响。结果显示:《协定》的实施将对我国农业总体发展产生一定冲击,对我国农产品出口,尤其对我国出口日本的畜产品和蔬果影响尤为明显。结合我国自贸区谈判和农业发展情况,提出继续支持多边贸易体制的发展和完善、推动RCEP早日落地并继续扩大自贸协定"朋友圈"、培育出口竞争优势以及通过促进农业投资弥补贸易转移效应等政策建议。     

多哈回合农产品关税减让谈判与中国的谈判方案选择——基于CGE模型的视角

本文运用GTAP6新发布的多哈回合谈判模拟情景数据库，就不同方案对全球贸易的宏观影响、对中国农产品贸易及农业生产的影响进行了模拟分析。模拟结果显示，每一种削减方案从整体上都提高了中国的农产品出口，但是，相对而言，对水稻、蔬菜水果、糖类作物等产生的影响较大。在WTO多哈回合农产品关税减让谈判中，中国的谈判首选方案为限制高关税的关税封顶方案，备选方案为限制更少敏感性农产品税号数目的方案，以谋取更多的实质性的农产品出口机会。     

WTO与我国农业财政政策导向

我国加入W TO以来,随着农产品市场的逐步开放,我国农产品面临着巨大的竞争压力。从长期的实际经验来看,国际市场的农产品竞争,与其说是市场竞争,不如说是国家农业政策的竞争。农业国内财政政策的实施及力度,以及根据国际、国内变化了的情况及时对其加以调整,是提高农产品国际竞争力的一个关键因素。一、《农业协定》关于农业支持政策的一般规定W TO《农业协定》也称为《农产品协定》,是迄今为止有关农产品贸易适用性最强、内容最全面的多边协定。主要包括市场准入、国内支持、出口竞争的三大支柱内容。在与“国内支持”相关的条款中,对农…     

入世与我国农产品贸易竞争力的提升

入世后 ,我国的农产品贸易在ＷＴＯ《农业协议》框架下将逐步融入世界自由贸易的轨道 ,这无疑将对我国农业与农村的发展产生深远而积极的影响。但是 ,加入ＷＴＯ要取消非关税壁垒措施、降低关税 ,国内农产品市场将逐步扩大对外开放 ,这又不可避免的对我国农产品贸易产生多方面的复杂的影响。面对此种形势和我国农业发展的实际情况 ,我国农业与发达国家农业的差距最终表现在农产品的竞争力上。因此 ,入世后如何提升我国农产品贸易的竞争力将是摆在我们面前的一个亟待解决的问题。一、目前影响我国农产品贸易竞争力的因素1 大宗农产品价格趋…     

中格贸易协定对江苏农产品贸易影响简析

自由贸易区是指两个或多个经济体,相互逐步取消绝大多数产品的关税和非关税措施,开放服务业和投资市场,实现贸易、投资的全面自由化和便利化.格鲁吉亚位于欧亚大陆交界处,是"一带一路"重要的节点国家之一.习近平总书记提出建设"丝绸之路经济带"的战略构想后,格鲁吉亚政府积极响应.2015年12月,中国与格鲁吉亚启动自贸协定谈判,2017年5月正式签署《中华人民共和国政府和格鲁吉亚政府自由贸易协定》(下称《协定》),并于2018年1月1日正式生效实施.中格自贸协定是"一带一路"倡议提出后,我国与相关国家达成的第一个自贸协定,《协定》的签署对中格双边贸易产生了积极影响,《协定》生效后,包括农产品在内的各项货物贸易水平都得到了有效提升.     

WTO是什么?

WTO即世界贸易组织英文单词（WorldTradeOrganization）第一个字母的缩写，是致力于监督世界贸易和使世界贸易自由化的国际组织，其核心是《WTO协定》，基本职能是实施《WTO协定》、组织多边贸易谈判，以及解决成员间可能产生的贸易争端和审议各成员的贸易政策。其前身是１９４７年创立的关税与贸易总协定（GATT）。我国是关税与贸易总协定的创始国，由于历史原因，与其中断联系３０多年。１９８６年我国正式申请恢复关税与贸易总协定缔约国地位，并开始了艰苦的谈判历程。１９９５年世界贸易组织成立后，我“复关”谈判转为加入世界…     

“WTO知识与中国农业”系列讲座（3）

WTO协议中有哪些条款与农业有关WTO协议中大部分条款都与农业有关。其中专门针对农业问题的有《农业协定》和《实施卫生与植物检疫措施协定》。这也是人们在讨论WTO与我国农业问题时关注较多的重点。但是，对农业和农产品市场具有重要影响的，除了这两个协定之外，其他许多条款也都有非常重要的意义。比如，与我国农产品出口关系较大的有《反倾销协定》和《保障措施协定》。我国农产品出口时，可能会受到进口的阻碍，这两个协定的威胁最大，因为进口国为了保护本国产业，有可能滥用这两个协定的条款。此外，《纺织品与服装协定》、《技…     

对WTO框架下农产品贸易规则的政治和经济学思考——兼论发展中国家和发达国家农业的特点和政策

引言　　自 1947年ＧＡＴＴ成立以来 ,农产品问题一直是各成员国谈判的重点和难点之一。由于农产品有别于其他贸易商品的特殊性 ,谈判各方一直无法达成最终协议。国际农产品贸易不仅始终游离在ＧＡＴＴ规则之外 ,而且是贸易保护最盛行的领域。　　 1994年 ,世界贸易组织终于在乌拉圭回合达成并通过了《农产品协定》。该协定为实现《埃斯特角城宣言》中农产品贸易改革的谈判目标建立了基础 ,将农产品贸易规范化、制度化 ,使其逐步回归到ＷＴＯ多边货物贸易规则的全面管辖范围之内。　　一、《农产品协定》的主要内容和特点　　《农产品协定》…     

中国与日本农产品贸易现状及改进策略

中日双方的地理区位、人力资源、技术水平等多个方面较大差异,使得双边的农产品贸易存在着较强的互补性。长期以来中日双方农产品贸易数额较大,然而在多种因素的综合影响下也出现一定波动。要准确把握双边农产品贸易增长中的产品结构性变化和贸易摩擦日益增多的现状。日本借世贸规则行贸易保护之实,对中国实施日益严苛的贸易壁垒。日本抓住世贸组织规则漏洞,我国出口农产品检验检疫标准不高、农药残留问题等问题,影响对日农产品的出口增长。为此,我国要有效改进中日农产品贸易发展的优选策略,建设多元贸易摩擦应对机制,增强我国农业科技应用能力和产品质量,利用信息网络健全贸易壁垒预警机制,以绿色生产和科学检测应对日本苛刻的技术性贸易措施。。     

欧盟近期农业信息选编

<正>欧日贸易协定预期为欧盟农产品出口带来机会7月7日,欧盟与日本就经济伙伴协定的主要内容达成原则性协议。该协定预期将为欧盟增加出口金额达200亿欧元。从协定实施之日起,欧洲农民将受益于以下几个方面:切达干酪等多种奶酪的关税(目前为29.8%)和葡萄酒关税(目前平均为15%)取消;欧盟大幅度增加对日本牛肉出口,加工猪肉免征关税,新鲜猪肉关税几乎为零;欧盟200多种地理标志产品     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。     

A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade

Canadian agricultural trade has experienced several volatile periods over the past 15 years. The Great Recession (2007–2009), the 2015–2016 global trade slowdown, unilateral policy actions by the United States against key trade allies and the multilateral system more generally, and the impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic are among the most significant events during this period. Given the close integration of Canadian and US agricultural markets, the recent US election is likely to again impact the relative competitiveness of Canadian agricultural exports. While many observers suggest President‐elect Joe Biden will return to normal times regarding multilateral cooperation with key allies and international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the new administration is likely to face headwinds given the significant fraying of ties with key trading partners and allies due to disruptive actions taken by his predecessor. This article provides an overview of potential implications of a Biden administration for Canada's agricultural trade. We start by reviewing recent trade shock events affecting Canada's agricultural trade with a particular focus on trade actions taken by the United States. Relevant components of the President‐elect Biden's platform, considerations affecting the implementation of this platform, and the implications of this for Canadian agricultural trade are considered.     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分。自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验。本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,测算了2001-2017年中美农产品贸易的强度和产品、地域结构。分析结果表明,中美互加关税会使中国对美国农产品进口额下降超过50%,对美农产品出口额也有小幅下跌,同时,中国农产品进口主要转移至巴西、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度等国,美国农产品出口部分转移至韩国、荷兰、墨西哥。基于以上研究,本文认为,短期中国要解决大豆和饲料的缺口问题,长期要调整农业种植和农产品进口结构,增加肉类及肉制品进口量,并有意识地调整贸易结构,分散风险,提高应对突发事件的抵御能力,保障国内农业产业安全。     

Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?

Based on a novel, detailed, time‐consistent tariff database taking account of import protection developments in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalisation over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalisation took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.     

中日韩农产品产业内贸易研究

农产品贸易状况对于中日韩自由贸易区的建立有着十分重要意义。发展农产品产业内贸易有利于优化产业结构,提高农产品贸易水平。本文根据对中日韩三国间农产品产业内贸易现状的深入分析,认为中国与日、韩间农产品贸易方式以产业间贸易为主,日本与韩国间的农产品产业内贸易水平有上升的趋势,而后进一步分析其主要原因在于比较优势、贸易壁垒、经济水平等因素,最后建议应从调整产业结构、提高农产品质量、积极参与自由贸易区谈判入手,改善农产品贸易状况。     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

中国竹藤类产品出口潜力研究——基于引力模型的实证分析

基于引力模型,运用2007~2014年8年间中国对24个竹藤类产品贸易伙伴国的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明:APEC的有关贸易安排对中国竹藤类产品贸易流量的影响较大,美国、日本、澳大利亚等APEC成员国是中国排名前3位的竹藤类产品进口国;贸易潜力测算结果显示中国对这3个国家均存在贸易不足,竹藤类产品贸易还有很大潜力可挖。基于此,提出应进一步加强中国与APEC成员国之间的合作交流,积极推进中国对美国、日本、澳大利亚等APEC成员国竹藤类产品出口向多样化和高质量化的方向发展,尽量选择与中国要素禀赋差异小的国家开展竹藤类产品的贸易等建议。     

SPS and TBT agreements and international agricultural trade: retaliation or cooperation?

In this article, we investigate whether the Brazilian notifications to the TBT and SPS agreements are characterized as retaliation or as cooperation in international agricultural trade in the period 1996–2008. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model is used to estimate game models of bilateral trade between Brazil and its major partners (United States, European Union, and Japan). From the viewpoint of strategic games, the results suggest that the Brazilian notifications are forms of retaliation against the United States, and, regarding the European Union, the best result for Brazil was conciliation. On the other hand, if the results are interpreted as equilibria of bargaining games, they suggest that Brazil has great bargaining power in trade with the United States and that cooperation characterized agricultural trade between Brazil and the European Union in the period analyzed. In the case of agricultural trade between Brazil and Japan, only Japan has characteristics of a country with significant bargaining power.     

Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China's agricultural trade patterns

This paper examines the composition of China's international trade from 1980 to 1997, with a focus on agriculture and a view towards understanding agriculture's changing trade structure relative to other sectors. We analyse the time series behaviour of individually traded goods at the Standard Industrial Trade Classification three-digit level, categorised into three groups: agricultural commodities, 'other' primary commodities and manufactures. We find that China's agricultural trade has expanded along comparative advantage lines in only a very modest way, suggesting that World Trade Organization membership will have a large impact on China's agricultural trade patterns.