Capital market imperfections in economic transition: empirical evidence from Ukrainian agriculture

This article investigates the link between financing and investment in Ukrainian agriculture during economic transition. The main contribution of the study is to provide empirical evidence for the coexistence of financial constraints and soft budget constraints (SBCs). This is of particular importance because credit constraints and SBCs have completely different economic effects. The lack of differentiation between these forms of capital market imperfections yields overlapping effects of financing on investment and may therefore cause a misinterpretation of econometric results. Our empirical analyses are based on an econometric estimation of the Euler investment equations for 529 large farms from three Ukrainian regions between 2001 and 2005. The results confirm that financial variables significantly influence farms' investment, providing empirical evidence of an imperfect capital market in Ukrainian agriculture. It turns out that credit constraints in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are more important than SBCs. We show that the estimated level of financial constraints for profitable farms with access to loans is higher if both types of capital market imperfections are appropriately distinguished.     

Credit market access and profitability in Tunisian agriculture

This work develops an econometric model that links credit access with agricultural profitability and investment. Using data collected from rural Tunisia, this work provides direct estimates of credit access and its effects. Econometric estimates are run for agricultural investment and profitability as a function of credit access. The investigation of credit access and its effect suggests that the presence of credit market constraints does impinge significantly on farm profitability, but not on investments.     

Credit Risk Assessment and the Opportunity Costs of Loan Misclassification

This paper investigates the opportunity costs of loan misclassification in credit risk assessment, and develops a model that directly incorporates the opportunity costs of loan misclassification into the risk assessment criteria. The performance of this model is assessed by comparing the empirical results with the results of the logit credit scoring model using data provided by the Farm Credit Corporation of Canada. Results indicate that if both the models make a Type I and Type II error with a $1-million loan, the expected costs of error would be $600 and $6, 500 less, respectively, in the cost minimization model compared with the logit model. The expected lenders's profit for a $1-million loan would be $17, 000 more in cost minimization model compared with the logit model. The cost minimization model performed better than the logit model, both in prediction accuracy and also in reducing the costs associated with the errors in classification.     

Effects of subsidies in Russian dairy farming

This study develops a microeconometric model of specialized dairy farms in the Moscow region using panel data over the period 1995–2001. The model is used to analyze the role of subsidies on profit as well as input and output allocation. Theoretical conditions for short‐term profit maximization are not rejected by the data. Differences between farms allow for a fixed‐effect specification. The dairy producers in the region demonstrate a low responsiveness to market signals, but technology change becomes important. Labor, land, and livestock had low shadow prices. Although subsidies have a distorting effect on the input–output mix, this study shows they relieve the credit constraints on dairy farms and have an important positive influence on farm profit.     

基于林业特质的林农信贷约束影响因素分析

在林业融资的过程中,金融部门慎贷、惜贷现象非常突出,从而导致林农的信贷需求难以得到满足,对林业生产活动造成了严重的负面影响。结合2005年对福建永安市林农信贷状况的调查数据,运用Logit模型对影响林农信贷约束的林业特质因素进行了探索性的实证研究。研究结果表明,除了利率对林农的信贷约束有显著的影响外,森林保险的参保状况、林权证和采伐证的拥有情况是林农信贷约束的显著特质性影响因素。     

Why Don't Lenders Finance High-Return Technological Change in Developing-Country Agriculture?

Most of the literature attributes credit constraints in small-farm developing-country agriculture to the variability of returns to investment in this sector. But the literature does not fully explain lenders' reluctance to finance investments in technologies that provide both higher average and less variable returns. This article develops an information-theoretic credit market model with endogenous technology choice. The model demonstrates that lenders may refuse to finance any investment in a riskless high-return technology–regardless of the interest rate they are offered–when they are imperfectly informed about loan applicants' time preferences and, therefore, about their propensities to default intentionally in order to finance current consumption.     

The effect of nonfarm income on investment in Bulgarian family farming

This article documents a relationship between nonfarm income (primarily earnings and pensions) and agricultural investment in Bulgaria, specifically, expenditures on working capital (variable inputs such as feed, seed, and herbicides) and investment in livestock. Among those with positive spending on farm inputs, the estimated elasticity of these expenditures with respect to nonfarm income is 0.14. Nonfarm income also has an effect on the number of households that purchase farm animals, with an estimated elasticity of 0.35. The use of nonfarm income for farm investment is consistent with the presence of credit constraints, as is the fact that less than one percent of farmers report outstanding debts for agricultural purposes. Yet many farm households take out large unsecured loans for other purposes, primarily to cover consumption expenditures, implying that credit is available, but that farmers prefer not to use borrowed funds to finance agricultural investment. This would suggest that increases in the availability of agricultural credit may have little effect on farm outcomes, whereas increases in nondebt-financed sources of liquidity, such as subsidies or transfers, may better stimulate investment.     

林农个体特征对信贷约束的影响分析

林权改革后林农的信贷需求旺盛,但长期以来林农一直面临着信贷约束的束缚。信贷约束由信贷供求双方的信息不对称造成,林农的个体特征对消除信息不对称,进而减弱信贷约束具有某种影响。结合2010年福建省清流县林农的调查问卷数据,文章运用相关性分析和因子分析两项计量工具对林农个体特征对信贷约束的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明以家庭收入和非农化程度为代表的家庭整体特征是影响林农信贷约束的首要因素,而林农林权证的拥有与森林保险的参与对减弱信贷约束具有重要作用。     

Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines

Rice trade liberalization in the Philippines should decrease domestic rice prices impacting both agricultural wages and the welfare of agricultural wage earners. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship between rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines using a neoclassical wage determination model. Three empirical frameworks are used—a cointegration/error correction framework, which assumes nonstationary variables in long-run equilibrium, a first difference model that assumes nonstationary variables but no long-run equilibrium, and an OLS framework that assumes the model variables are stationary. Conclusions are reasonably robust across the three empirical frameworks with wages adjusting positively to rice price changes with a short-run elasticity of 0.29 to 0.57, and a long-run elasticity of 0.70 to 1.0 in preferred models. An analysis of welfare implications suggests that although households that are heavily reliant on agricultural wages for income will be adversely affected by rice price decreases, other households will benefit.     

Getting Institutions "Right" for Whom? Credit Constraints and the Impact of Property Rights on the Quantity and Composition of Investment

Property rights reform is typically hypothesized to boost investment through investment demand and credit supply effects. Yet when the credit supply effect is muted, property rights reform would be expected to induce liquidity-constrained farms to reduce investment in movable capital even as they increase investment in attached capital. This expectation is corroborated by econometric analysis of panel data from Paraguay. While all farmers experience a positive investment demand effect, liquidity-constrained producers correspondingly reduce their demand for movable capital. Given an estimated pattern of wealth-biased liquidity constraints, property rights reform will get institutions "right" for only wealthier producers.     

How limiting is finance for Dutch dairy farms? A dynamic profit analysis

Accessibility to financial resources is considered a prevalent problem in the agricultural sector. We develop an approach to quantify the long-term opportunity costs of financial constraints in relation to peers who do not face any financial constraints. Using data on past financial performance, we assess creditworthiness and the size of an additional accessible bank loan to farmers. Combining this with data on reported expenditure, we determine the accessible finance. We quantify the opportunity cost as the forgone dynamic profit (intertemporal profit in current-value terms) from financial constraints. Using data envelopment analysis, we apply our approach to 264 specialised Dutch dairy farms for the years 2006–2017 and explore the potential impact of changes in finance provision for several scenarios. Our results show an increasing gap between frontrunners and other farmers, as the latter generate progressively less dynamic profit in comparison to their best peers. The gap between the dynamic profit of the average farm and that of its best peers from their production and investment decisions made over the span of 1 year grew from €40,040 in 2009 to €114,548 in 2017. However, the growth is not driven by insufficient access to finance. Financial constraints can only explain 6% of the forgone dynamic profit in 2009 and as little as 1% for 2017. The number of farms classified as financially constrained in comparison to their peers decreases in our sample from 44% in 2009 to 8% in 2017. This suggests that non-financial factors are driving the growing gap.     

Dynamic factor demand equations in U.S. and Canadian agriculture

This research provides one of the first empirical estimates of a data-based dynamic factor demand model for American and Canadian agriculture. Models such as these deserve more widespread use in the empirical analysis of agriculture. These models have the advantage that they do not impose inappropriate dynamics on the data. Rather they permit the data to select the appropriate dynamics. We use a model originally developed by Anderson and Blundell. This model is a general first-order dynamic model which contains as testable hypothesis several simpler models. This model permits us to estimate the long-run agricultural production structure as a subset of the dynamic parameter estimates. We will test this long-run structure for symmetry, homotheticity and neutral technical change. The estimated models may be used to test for three alternative dynamic structures. In the limit, dynamics may not be needed and we can test for the static long-run equilibrium model. Two intermediate cases are the autoregressive and the partial adjustment models which are simpler than the general model but still include dynamics. Our results suggest that the long-run equilibrium model is unsatisfactory in both countries. A dynamic model is needed. In both countries, the two more restricted dynamic models are rejected. The general dynamic model is required. In Canada, the long-run equilibrium structure is homothetic with neutral technical change. In the United States, homotheticity is also accepted but neutral technical change is rejected.     

Financing Constraints and Agricultural Investment: Effects of the Irish Financial Crisis

This paper considers the role of financing constraints in agricultural investment since the recent financial crisis. Using Irish micro data over the period 1997–2010, we estimate the Q model of investment and test for financing constraints using a measure of internal finance dependence. Our econometric method controls for censoring, heterogeneity and endogeneity. We find that financing constraints are binding and the impact of constraints becomes much more acute following the financial crisis. Constraints are found to be well above pre‐crisis levels and especially elevated in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The effects are greatest for medium‐sized farms and farms in the dairy sector.     

The impact of index‐insured loans on credit market participation and risk‐taking

Index‐insured loans offer considerable advantages over standalone insurance policies for improving farmers’ access to agricultural credit. However, research on demand for such products and their impact on profitable investment decisions has been limited and conflicting. In this article, we investigate the impact of index insurance on demand for credit and investment decisions using a lab‐in‐the‐field experiment conducted in rural Tanzania. We find that index insurance increases demand for credit and high‐risk high‐return investments.     

基于修正Shapley模型的合同节水管理利益分配研究

合同节水管理引入社会化资本,具有广阔的应用前景,而其利益分配机制不健全成为实施推广的主要障碍之一。结合合同节水管理特点分析其核心利益相关者博弈关系,根据实际项目中参与方的成本投入、节水效果、风险承担等不同进行Shapley系数修正以克服模型缺陷,修正后节水收益由节水用户与资金提供者向节水服务公司流动,节水服务公司与节水用户获取最大收益,通过实证分析可得修正后的分配结果更趋向合理。     

Re‐examination of production,cost, and restricted profit functions using quantile regression approach

This article estimates quantile regressions of production, cost, and restricted profit functions using a Cobb‐Douglas functional form with non‐Hicks neutral technology change. In contrast to previous studies, quantile regression estimates reveal the relationship between the independent (production, cost, and restricted profit) and dependent (input quantities and prices) variables at each quantile of the distribution. An empirical application using data from 48 states in United States from 1960 to 2004 indicates the returns to scale and aggregate technology not only differ across production, cost, and restricted profit functions but across states in different quantiles of the distribution. This suggests the traditional measures of returns to scale and aggregate technology are under‐ and overestimated in states at upper and lower quantiles, respectively.     

Market imperfections,access to information and technology adoption in Uganda: challenges of overcoming multiple constraints

Limited empirical evidence exists on how multiple binding constraints influence the adoption of improved technologies by smallholder farmers. This article uses the case of groundnut variety adoption in Uganda to investigate the role of information, seed supply, and credit constraints in conditioning technology uptake. New data from a household survey in seven groundnut growing districts (n = 945) indicate that 8% of farmers lack information on new varieties, while 18% and 6% of farmers, respectively, cannot adopt mainly due to seed supply and capital constraints. A tobit‐type specification that considers all nonadopters as being uninterested in the technology (i.e., corner solutions) would lead to inconsistent parameter estimates and incorrect conclusions in this context. We therefore estimate a modified multi‐hurdle specification of demand for new varieties, taking into account how information, seed supply, and capital constraints jointly determine adoption probability and intensity. The study reveals new empirical insights on why agricultural technology adoption in Africa has lagged behind: slow uptake is not mainly due to a lack of economic incentives, but rather a reflection of information, seed supply, and credit constraints that prevent farmers from translating their desired demand into adoption of modern varieties. Policy implications are discussed.     

Revisiting constraints to smallholder participation in high-value markets: A best-worst scaling approach

We show how policymakers in developing regions can generate richer insights from using the choice experiment method best-worst scaling (BWS) method when ranking policy priorities on an importance scale. More specifically, we adopt BWS to provide an update on constraints that limit the participation of Kenyan horticultural smallholder farmers in modern agricultural value chains. In addition to traditional constraints posed by input market failures and missing institutions, we considered constraints such as trust and familiarity with buyers shown by recent empirical studies to inform smallholders’ market choices. Ascertaining the relevance of these constraints highlights our contribution to the existing literature. We find that farmers consistently rate access to high-quality inputs as their main constraint followed by concerns about access to credit, the high cost of meeting food standards, missing cooperatives, and exploitative intermediaries. Respondents considered insufficient labor, small farmlands, and weak tenure rights as the least important constraints. Age, location, gender, household income, and education influence the relative importance various segments of smallholders place on these constraints. For example, constraints are economic rather than personal for low-income farmers. Counterintuitively, rural smallholders are less likely to perceive poor transportation network as a constraint. Smallholders’ distrust of buyers they interact with is informed by their location and income. In designing intervention initiatives, policies that focus on segments of smallholders are needed for improving smallholder participation in modern agricultural value chains.     

Empirical properties of duality theory

This research examines selected empirical properties of duality relationships. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that Hessian matrices estimated from the normalised unrestricted profit, restricted profit and production functions yield conflicting results in the presence of measurement error and low relative price variability. In particular, small amounts of measurement error in quantity variables can translate into large errors in uncompensated estimates calculated via restricted and unrestricted profit and production functions. These results emphasise the need for high quality data when estimating empirical models in order to accurately determine dual relationships implied by economic theory.     

Uncertain Land Availability and Investment Decisions: The Case of Dutch Dairy Farms

Within the EU, uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land can be quite significant for individual farmers in sectors like dairy farming. Farm‐level investment decisions are commonly made ex‐ante, when the farmer is not certain about the possibility of purchasing land. This possibility is realised only in a future period. In this paper, we have developed and applied a simple two‐period model in which a profit‐maximising farmer, facing uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land, has to choose the optimal mix of capital (buildings) investment and land endowment. We illustrate the model using data from Dutch dairy farms.