12月畜牧农事

本月，将进入冬季，气候寒冷、干燥，常有冷空气南下，气温急剧下降，容易引起畜禽感冒、腹泻等疾病发生，因此，畜禽饲养专业户必须强加饲养管理，做好栏舍保温工作，防范家畜家禽一些冬季易感疫病的发生。     

植物工厂的崛起与未来

<正>人类社会的食物生产是最基本的生产活动。农业生产发生之前,人类以渔猎采集为生。渔猎采集的对象是自然界的植物、动物等,自然资源有限,养活不了众多的人口。大约1.2万年前,在美索不达米亚、埃及、中国、印度、中南美洲等地区形成了若干位于大河之畔的农业起源中心,通过引种谷物、豆类、块茎类等可食植物,驯化牛、猪、羊和狗等牲畜,从刀耕火种到人工灌     

突出"四化"推进特色养殖业又好又快发展

大兴安岭图强林业局冬季漫长，气候寒冷，是全国发展毛皮动物的最佳区域。从2002年开始至今，引进的北极蓝狐、优质芬兰种狐、美国短毛漆黑水貂等为主的皮毛动物养殖业得到了迅猛发展，以狐、貂、貉、獭兔为主的毛皮动物饲养业从无到有，由小到大，落地生根。目前，已建成了黑龙江省最大的毛皮动物养殖基地，养殖区占地面积近100万m^2，养殖总量已突破10万只。     

全球视野下的粟黍起源及传播探索

13000年前东亚人群扩张、12000年前左右"新仙女木"事件给生存带来了巨大压力,而距今约11000年前,人类已经开始了对粟黍野生祖本的驯化,这应是气候环境和人口压力共同催生的结果。但人类发展水平和粟黍野生祖本特性应是其驯化的基础条件,即在距今12000年左右,人类制造和使用工具的能力已大大提高,陶器的出现更使人类便于大规模炊煮食物;同时,粟黍的野生祖本分布较广,籽实相对易储藏,既可以大规模栽培,又可以解决因食物季节性短缺带来的饥饿问题。另外,在距今11000年左右甚至更早时期,粟黍野生祖本的籽实要比现在大或已进化出更大籽实的品种,这也是一个非常重要的假设。粟黍外传的特别意义在于,可能会给当地的生产、生活方式带来变革,而且涉及到的人口迁徙也可能影响当地的种群生态。     

尺寸与成分:考古材料揭示黄河中下游地区大豆起源与驯化历程

黄河中下游地区长期以来被视为大豆起源地之一。近年来以考古材料为基础,对黄河中下游地区大豆起源与驯化研究,集中于炭化种子的尺寸分析,已大致可以看出尺寸分化的历时性演变。尽管如此,本文对各遗址出土大豆尺寸的具体分析表明,新石器时代至汉代大豆尺寸在各个遗址的尺寸变化范围并不相同,因而难以建立用以判别驯化的尺寸标准。能否在尺寸之外,找到观察大豆驯化历程的新线索,成为当务之急。作者进而介绍了新近利用X-CT技术观察大豆成分历时性演变的新进展。含油量的变化表明黄河中下游地区大豆的栽培和驯化至迟发生于距今7500年前。距今4000-3500年前后,尺寸和含油量都出现明显分化,这两项指标表明此时大豆的驯化已经进入一个新的阶段。     

降及时雨 解心头急——玉林市联社冬季支农贷款收益快

冬季农业开发是增加农民收入的一项重要途径。但是冬季农业开发项目时间短，季节性强，投入资金相对集中，加上以往进入冬季后金融部门贷款只收不放，这给农民出了不少的难题，针对这种情况，１９９８年１０月中旬以来，玉林市农村信用社安排了５０００万元支农专项资金，...     

养殖鳗鱼摄食异常原因分析及对策

<正>在鳗鱼养殖过程中,经常会遇见鳗鱼摄食减少甚至不摄食或者吐料的现象,引起此种现象的原因很多,笔者结合多次走访鳗场及调研机会,就鳗鱼摄食异常原因进行分析并提出建议,供养殖户参考。一、气候因素1.季节性气候。水温偏高或偏低,譬如酷热炎夏或冬季、春夏或秋冬季节交替时,均会引起鳗鱼摄食异常。鳗鱼是变温性动物,夏季光线强、水温及气温     

自然冷源在粮食储藏中的利用

内蒙古赤峰元宝山国家粮食储备库位于蒙、冀、辽3省区交汇处，年平均最高气温11．6℃，年平均最低气温-1.8℃；年极端最高气温35℃-40℃一般在每年的7月下旬和8月出现，时间短；年极端最低气温-30℃-28℃一般出现在每年12下旬至次年1、2月。冬季漫长寒冷。特有的地理气候环境，粮食储藏安全得到天然气候保障，本地区较适宜粮食储藏。元宝山国储库借助特有气候条件利用冬季冷源及时人仓，对仓内粮食自然通风或机械通风补充“冷源”去除余热余湿降温是行之有效的粮食储藏方法，并基本可以实现“三低”储藏要求，同时达到低损耗、绿色环保无污染之目的，在节约成本的同时，增加企业效益。     

充分发挥资源优势大力发展甘孜州特色农业

特色农业是指具有独特的资源条件、明显的区域特征、特殊的产品品质和特定的消费市场的农业产业。甘孜州位于四川省西部，青藏高原东南缘，处于长江上游的大渡河、雅砻江、金沙江上游。全州幅员面积15．3万平方公里，平均海拔3560米以上，最低980米．最高7556米；气候类型多样，区内既有高原气候．又有山原和峡谷气候，年均气温一般为4．1—12．5℃．年降雨量500—800毫米。适宜于动植物的生长繁衍、引种驯化和种植，孕育了甘孜州丰富的生物资源．具有发展特色农业的优势和潜力。     

传统农业时代乡村粮食安全水平估测

传统农业时代中国单位面积的粮食产量长期在世界处于领先地位,农业技术水平的提高在很大程度上降低了饥荒风险,减缓了饥荒的发生。隋唐以前粮食生产能力处于持续上涨阶段,粮食生产能力完全能够应对可能发生的饥荒,而且还可以供养更多的人口。宋元明时期粮食生产能力依然高于秦汉时期的水平。入清以后由于人口增殖过快,人口压力剧增,粮食供应空前紧张。清代中国人均粮食占有量倒退到2000多年前春秋战国时代的水平上,饥荒的频繁发生已经呈现出不可避免的恶化趋势。因此提高粮食产量水平成为20世纪中国最为关键的问题,在耕地资源基本开发殆尽的情况下,唯有采取改进农业技术提高单位面积产量的办法最为可行。战争和自然灾害是导致粮食波动的根本性因素,局部地区因此而出现粮食短缺,饥荒的发生成为可能。农民是粮食生产的主体力量,同时也是最易遭受饥荒危害的社会群体。中国传统社会农民生活水平长期处于贫困化的状态,直至20世纪中叶依然没有发生根本性变化。     

‘Maize is Life,but Rice is Money!’ A Village Case Study of the2001/02 Famine in Malawi

This paper provides a case study of the 2001/02 famine in Malawi from a village in the Southern Region of the country. Based on in‐depth micro‐level field research, it challenges some commonly accepted views about this crisis. The paper provides evidence that: (1) there was a serious ‘famine’ in the community; (2) the decline in food availability was not the major causal factor of the famine; (3) the early warning system in the rural areas was functioning appropriately and the famine did not happen in ‘silence’, unnoticed; (4) the food preferences of Malawians are not ‘inflexible’; and (5) the famine, contrary to the claims of some of the ‘new famine hypotheses’, was less the consequence of underlying vulnerability and long‐term social or economic trends but, rather, the result of an unexpected and sudden shock, which was generated by the exponential increase in the price of all food crops.     

The Great Chinese Famine (1959–1961) and farm households’ adoption of technology: evidence from China*

The diffusion of new technology is an important driver of agricultural development, especially in the developing world. In this research, we follow the persistence of major historical events, employing a difference-in-differences method to carefully examine the long-term effect of China’s 1959–1961 famine on farm households’ current decisions to adopt technology. Further, we combine a mediating regression procedure with a bootstrap method to explore the mechanism of impact in this relationship. Overall, this study provides strong empirical evidence that the Great Famine attenuated technology adoption; moreover, a 1% increase in exposure to famine in childhood and adolescence resulted in a 0.137% decrease in the probability of technology adoption when controlling for village dummies. An analysis of mediating effects reveals that risk preferences account for the channel of famine persistence.     

Consumer choice and the acceptance of production practice: introduction and overview

The acceptance of agricultural and food production practice by consumers is crucial for the success of innovation and marketing. This is an introduction to a collection of papers that were presented at the 28th Congress of the IAAE. The papers apply different choice modeling methods in this context in order to study the choice of food products offering credence aspects regarding functionality (health), tracability (safety), and denomination of origin and production practice (tradition) in various countries.     

Economic Measures of Sustainability

Sustainable Agriculture is a term that has grown out of global call for sustainable development. Unfortunately, the term has been very widely adopted to represent a variety of initiatives. If the term is to retain any meaning it must be refined and defined. In this paper sustainability was defined as: The maintenance of the net benefits agriculture provides to society for present and future generations. This definition is very much a humanist approach, which includes both consumer and producer surplus. The paper identifies the conflict that may occur between consumer surplus, producer surplus and total economic surplus. From a consumer surplus point of view food security, and discounting are major issues. The compensating variation of a famine may be infinite making food security a primary goal of many nations. The maximization of the net returns from agricultural production represents me producer surplus point view. A second, somewhat related concern is the maintenance of minimum level of income in the agricultural sector. Consumer surplus is threatened by food scarcity, and agricultural income is threatened by surpluses. Price is the best measure we have of scarcity. To discuss sufficiency in the absence of price is very misleading. Similarly, describing sustainability in terms of expected output and prices is also misleading. It is unplanned scarcity and abundance that threatens food security and economic viability respectively. It is therefore, the ability of the agricultural system to respond and rule out extreme price that is central to the issue of sustainability. Given the inelastic nature of the demand the ability for sustainable agriculture may largely be a function of the elasticity of supply. The ability of fixed factors such as land to enter and exit a sector may also augment sustainability. A thirdsource, of economic flexibility is alternative technologies that can be applied at very low or high prices. This flexibility has to be valued not at expected prices but rather for the option values at extreme prices. Government has a role in sustainability. Governments should pursue policies which enhance the elasticity of supply. Policies that stabilize income through prices have the opposite effect. These programs should at a minimum be decoupled. Secondly, governments should spend research dollars on technologies that enhance the elasticity of supply. Finally, land set aside programs, add great deal to the elasticity of supply.     

粮食主产区妇女的农田水利管理模式偏好及参与灌溉管理意愿研究

粮食主产区担负着保障国家粮食安全的重任,农田水利是农业生产的基础。在新型城镇化背景下,妇女是农业生产的主要劳动力。粮食主产区妇女的农田水利管理模式偏好及参与灌溉管理意愿对确保粮食安全至关重要。结果表明,集体化、家庭化解决了分散、细碎农地的灌溉问题,乡村精英能降低农田水利市场化程度,男性青壮年劳动力可缓解农田水利的灌溉压力。"单打独斗"的灌溉管理模式不足以保障水田作物的季节性需求。农村教育、耕地面积、乡村精英管理有助于增进妇女参与农田灌溉管理的意愿。     

Forecasting pseudo‐periodic seasonal patterns in agricultural prices

A seasonal model is proposed to forecast agricultural prices with pseudo‐periodic seasonal patterns, in which the length of the seasonal period does not remain the same over time. The seasonal effect at a season is defined as a function of the proportion of the seasonal period length elapsed up to that season, and the seasonal pattern is modeled by means of evolving splines to capture any dynamic process of change. Such a model is a useful tool to forecast seasonal behaviors. To illustrate the relevance of this modeling framework, the methodology is applied to weekly prices of tomatoes exported to German markets.     

中国节水农业成效、形势机遇与展望

目的 我国是世界上水资源缺乏的国家之一，发展节水农业在保障国家粮食安全和农业绿色高质量发展大局中具有重要战略地位。全面总结“十三五”节水农业发展成效与经验，认真分析节水农业的现状、形势和任务，加快“十四五”期间节水农业发展，推进节水增粮、节水增效，具有十分重要的意义。方法 文章对我国近10年来的水资源、农业用水、灌溉用水、旱作农业生产和用水效率进行系统总结和数据分析。结果 “十三五”期间，我国节水农业发展取得显著成效，农业用水总量及其占全国用水总量的比例“双下降”，农业用水效率和效益“双提升”，切实提高农业用水效率，为保障粮食和食物安全做出重要贡献。结论 中国农业生产面临着干旱缺水的长期威胁，大力发展节水农业，解决好农业用水问题，是保证我国粮食和食物安全、转变农业发展模式并促进绿色高质量发展的需要，也是实现农业现代化和生态文明的根本路径。     

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor-intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill-intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor-intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non-grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).     

Home Bias in Primary Agricultural and Processed Food Trade: Assessing the Effects of National Degree of Uncertainty Aversion

This study investigates the effects of national degrees of uncertainty aversion (unfamiliarity avoidance) on the magnitude of bias towards domestic products rather than imports. The empirical analysis is implemented for primary agricultural and processed food products, using a panel dataset covering trade between and within OECD countries. Primary agricultural products are often blended and associated with reference prices. Conversely, processed food products exhibit higher levels of product differentiation. The empirical results confirm expectations by emphasizing the magnifying effects of uncertainty aversion on home bias in the case of processed food products but not in the case of primary agricultural products. These magnifying effects are primarily associated with processed food products destined for final household consumption. Other results reveal significant variations between different countries (based on geo‐economic and national income categories). Our results also indicate that home bias and uncertainty aversion effects on home bias have not decreased over time. The empirical results remain robust under different estimation methods.     

Agricultural Marketing in Belgium and the Netherlands

Agriculture in Belgium and the Netherlands has a strong export tradition and has been market oriented for a long time. In this article agricultural markeling in Belgium and the Netherlands is analyzed on the basis of the concepts structure, conduct and performance. In our review of market structure attention is paid to the structure of agriculture, the food consumer, food retailing, government policies, competition and marketing channels. Afterwards market conduct with respect to product, price, promotion and distribution is discussed. Finally some qualitative observations are made on marketing performance. It is concluded that agricultural marketing policies in Belgium and the NeIherlands are increasingly focusing on value added to the agricultural product. As a result vertical marketing systems/food chain and marketing management become familiar concepts to agicultural marketing.