农地流转与化肥减量——来自农地流转政策的准自然实验

目的 推动化肥减量是实现农业可持续发展、绿色发展的必然要求，而农地流转的发展为推动化肥减量提供了新的思路。方法 文章基于2005—2020年中国省级面板数据，运用连续型DID模型、中介模型等考察农地流转政策对化肥减量作用、作用机制以及异质性作用。结果 （1）基准模型估计结果表明，农地流转政策对化肥减量具有显著的促进作用，即农地流转能够促进化肥减量。（2）作用机制分析表明，农地流转政策可以通过调整种植结构和扩大经营规模的渠道对化肥减量起促进作用。（3）异质性分析表明，在自然地理区位维度，农地流转政策对东部和西部地区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显；在粮食生产功能区维度，农地流转政策对非粮食主产区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显；在化肥用量分布维度，对于化肥用量位于0.9分位点的省份，农地流转政策实施带来的化肥减量作用相对较弱。结论 应继续有序推进农地流转，提高农地流转比例；应遏制农地流转“非粮化”，促进农业适度规模经营；应结合各区域经济社会发展，因地制宜的探索农地流转模式。     

农业社会化服务对农户福利的影响研究——基于农药减量增效服务的实证检验

目的 厘清农业社会化服务对农户家庭收入的影响机制,对提升农户福利水平和完善农业社会化服务体系具有重要意义。方法 文章运用内生转换模型、中介效应模型等方法,重点关注于农药减量增效、保障农产品质量安全的农业社会化服务,实证检验其对农户福利的影响。结果 （1）样本农户中农业社会化服务平均采纳项数仅为2.24项,其中统防统治服务和质量检测服务的采用率均不足20%;（2）农业社会化服务能够通过改变农户传统施药观念与提升种植管理水平,改善农户福利,表现为在反事实假设下,实际采用农业社会化服务的农户若不采用,其家庭人均年收入将下降3.78%;（3）农业社会化服务福利效应存在群组差异性,对于高文化程度、低农业劳动比、种植规模较小的农户而言,采用农业社会化服务后福利水平改善程度相对较大。结论 应持续加强对农业社会化服务的组织形式与服务方式的创新,分类引导不同类型农户理性采用农业社会化服务,充分发挥出农业社会化服务的福利效应。     

企业全产业链社会化服务模式下农业绿色发展水平与空间差异研究——以中化MAP为例

目的 农业绿色发展是实现农业高质量发展和农业强国的基础，探究企业社会化服务组织能否提高农业绿色发展水平，旨在寻求推进农业绿色发展的可行路径。方法 文章以中国最大的现代农业企业社会化服务组织中化MAP为例，基于全国21个省份2 771个农户的调查数据，首先从资源节约、环境友好、节本增效、绿色供给四方面构建农业绿色发展评价指标体系，采用加权综合评价指数法测算服务模式下全国及不同种植区域农业绿色发展指数，比较分析全国农业绿色发展空间演化特征；然后运用耦合协调模型，分析绿色发展中资源节约、环境友好、节本增效、绿色供给4个指标之间的耦合协调关系。结果 （1）MAP服务模式下的农业绿色发展指数比非MAP高31.01%；（2）从空间上看，三大类作物主产区的农业绿色发展指数均值排名经作大区（36.51）> 特作大区（36.22） > 粮作省区（31.95），并且各区域内部农业绿色发展水平空间分布差异明显；（3）MAP服务模式下资源节约、环境友好、节本增效、绿色供给4个子系统的耦合协调水平有所提高，但仍处于失调状态。结论 农业企业社会化服务组织确实能够提高农业绿色发展水平，但区域之间的空间差异较明显，建议完善现代农业企业社会化服务支持体系、推动现代农业企业社会化服务精准化供给、加强农户对社会化服务组织的认知能力，以期加强社会化服务组织对农业绿色发展的推动作用。     

农业绿色发展模式的农业保险需求引致效应——基于荔枝种植户的经验分析

目的 研究农业绿色发展模式引致的农业风险规避需求及其特点,提出完善和推广农业保险、推进农业绿色发展的政策启示。方法 文章将农户农业保险需求分为5个等级,以采用生物防控和非化学生长调节技术来衡量农业绿色发展模式,然后构建排序Logit模型,利用2018—2019年国家荔枝龙眼产业技术体系的调查数据证明农业绿色发展模式和农业保险需求之间引致效应,并借助OLS、2SLS、LIML和分位数回归法检验了模型的稳健性。结果 （1）排序模型中农业绿色发展模式的系数均在1%的显著性水平上显著,说明农户的农业绿色发展模式会引致显著的农业保险需求,年龄、种植经验、合作组织、种植规模的系数也显著不为0,体现出种植规模较大、种植时间较长、参加合作组织的非老年人农户对农业保险需求影响较明显;（2）0.50分位数回归的农业绿色发展模式系数值最大,表明农业绿色发展模式引致的农业保险需求往往处于中等水平。结论 政府政策应充分考虑和满足农户农业绿色发展模式中的风险规避需求,才能深入推进农业绿色发展;而促进农业绿色发展的农业保险费率标准与推广策略也需要充分考虑农户种植规模、种植经验、合作组织、农户年龄和中等水平的农业保险需求等因素。     

基于玉米种植的农地规模对化肥减量增效的影响分析

目的 探讨农地规模对化肥施用强度和化肥利用效率的影响。方法 文章基于1 135个玉米种植户的调查数据,运用普通最小二乘法、工具变量法以及分位数回归法分析农地规模对化肥施用强度和化肥利用效率的影响,并利用2003—2018年20个玉米主产省份面板数据进行检验,最后探索并分析农地规模变化的驱动因素及其对化肥使用的短期和长期影响。结果 （1）农地规模对化肥施用强度具有显著的负向影响,农地规模每扩大1%,化肥施用强度随之降低0.1%～0.2%,且农地规模对化肥施用强度较低的农户的影响相对较大;（2）农地规模对化肥利用效率具有显著的正向影响,农地规模每扩大1%,化肥利用效率随之提高0.2%～0.3%,且农地规模对化肥利用效率较低的农户的影响相对较大。结论 鼓励适度扩大农地规模,有助于降低化肥施用强度,提高化肥利用效率;通过推广农业生产托管服务和联耕联种,可以有效解决地块狭小、土地分散等问题,促进化肥减量增效。     

土地禀赋对农户化肥减量的影响机理与实证分析

目的 研究土地禀赋对化肥减量的作用机理对农业生态环境改善和农业绿色发展具有重要意义。方法 文章采用环渤海5省市882份农户调研数据,运用Probit模型基于农户土地规模、土地细碎化、土地自然属性和土地产权属性4个维度,分析农户土地禀赋与化肥投入的关系及机理。结果 （1）有81.18%的农户存在过量施肥现象,化肥减量空间巨大;（2）土地经营规模与化肥减量呈现“倒U型”关系,适度规模是必要的;（3）对于小农户而言,土地细碎化会促进其化肥减量概率的提高;（4）相对转入土地,自有土地经营中化肥减量的概率更高;（5）高文化程度农户与纯农户更加“理性”,善于对不同禀赋土地“各尽其用”,低文化程度农户和兼业户则更倾向“路径依赖”,其施肥行为对土地禀赋异质性的反应不敏感。结论 应进一步健全土地流转市场体系,持续推进农户适度规模经营;提高农业生产者补贴,对不同农户实现分类施策、精准补贴;创新农业生产性服务模式,为农户化肥减量提供稳定支撑和保障。     

城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度的影响——基于中介效应的分析

目的 探讨城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度的影响及其作用机制。方法 文章基于文献梳理，归纳城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度的影响机理；利用2000—2018年河南省106个县的面板数据，分别探讨城镇化对农药施用强度和化肥施用强度的影响；通过分析农地经营规模与居民收入水平的中介效应，探索其影响机制。结果 （1）城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度均具有显著的负向影响；（2）城镇化的农地规模效应显著，城镇化有利于扩大农地经营规模，从而有利于降低农药、化肥施用强度；（3）城镇化的收入效应显著，居民收入水平对农药、化肥施用强度的影响呈“倒U型”变化趋势，超过1/3的县已跨过农药施用强度的拐点，全部县均已跨过化肥施用强度的拐点；（4）城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度较低的县的影响更大。结论 适度推进新型城镇化建设有利于促进农药、化肥减量；鼓励农地适度规模经营，可以充分发挥城镇化的农地规模效应，降低农药、化肥施用强度；持续增加居民收入，同时促进居民选择环境友好型食物、减少食物浪费，可以从需求侧助推农药、化肥减量。     

耕地质量禀赋、社会分工对农户化肥减量技术采纳行为的影响——基于鄂豫两省样本农户的实证

目的 促进农户采纳化肥减量技术是保障农产品安全、治理农业污染和推动农业绿色发展的重要举措,文章旨在探究耕地质量禀赋与社会分工对农户采纳化肥减量技术的影响及其内在逻辑。方法 基于湖北和河南两省700户农户的微观调研数据,利用Ordered Probit模型分析了耕地质量禀赋与社会分工对农户化肥减量技术采纳行为的影响。结果 （1）耕地质量禀赋对农户化肥减量技术采纳行为具有显著正向影响,耕地质量禀赋每增加一个单位,化肥减量技术采纳率将提高25%,土壤越肥沃,灌溉条件越便利,通机耕路的耕地,农户越会采纳化肥减量技术。（2）耕地质量禀赋越好,则农户更愿意参与横向分工,促进其采纳化肥减量技术,中介效应为0.062,且纵向分工能明显缓解质量禀赋较差耕地对农户化肥减量技术采纳的负向影响。（3）耕地质量禀赋对小农户采纳化肥减量技术具有显著正向影响,且社会分工增强了耕地质量禀赋对小农户化肥减量技术采纳行为的促进作用,而耕地质量禀赋对大农户化肥减量技术采纳行为没有显著影响。结论 因此,多渠道提升农户耕地条件,全方位推进农业社会分工,对不同规模农户采取差异化的激励和引导策略,均是推广化肥减量技术的有效途径。     

非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响研究——来自CHFS的实证分析

目的 在我国农村人口非农就业转移进程不断加深背景下,非农就业活动改变了农户家庭与农地之间的依附关系,研究非农就业活动对农户农地价值预期的影响,既有助于理解农地价值形成机理,又对推进我国农业农村现代化具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2015年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）农户层面的微观数据,以耕地作为农地的代表,采用OLS回归模型和中介效应模型实证分析非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响。结果 非农就业并未降低农户对农地的依赖、减少耕地要素投入,相反非农就业增强了土地替代要素的投入、激发了农户农转非的资本积累需求,从而导致农户提高了农地的价值预期。结论 （1）我国农户的非农就业转移并未完成,亟需创新和完善农村土地流转机制;（2）农地依旧是农户生存的重要保证,需积极支撑或培育专业化农业生产性服务业和智能化农业机械制造业的发展,弥补农业劳动力非农转移带来的负面效应,加快推进我国农业农村现代化。     

农业保险对农业固碳增效的影响及机制研究

目的 探究农业保险通过改变农户生产行为,进而影响农业固碳效果的作用路径。方法 文章基于2008—2019年中国30个省（市、自治区,不含港澳台和西藏）的种植业数据,构建有调节的并行多重中介效应模型,分析农业保险发展水平对农业净碳汇的作用机制。结果 （1）从总体来看,当前农业保险的发展抑制了农业固碳效果,具体表现为农业保险增加了农业碳排放,而对农业碳吸收没有显著影响;（2）农业保险对农业净碳汇的影响有两条路径,一是农业保险通过提升种植专业化水平促进农业净碳汇,二是农业保险通过促进农业技术进步抑制农业净碳汇,但环境规制会削弱农业技术进步对农业净碳汇的抑制作用;（3）在异质性分析中,西部农业保险发展的农业固碳效果要好于东部,中部农业保险发展对农业固碳效果没有显著影响。结论 （1）提高对专业化规模生产主体的农业保险保费补贴比例,以放大农业保险对农业净碳汇的促进作用;（2）设计绿色农业产品保险,引导农业生产者从事绿色农业生产经营,减少一般机械投入对农业净碳汇产生的负向影响;（3）提高农业保险政策与环境保护政策的配合程度,在发展农业保险的同时,加强农业环境保护政策的执行力度。     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

森林生物多样性评价模型的改进

针对2002年的评价模型中的不足,提出了新的改进后的森林生物多样性变化的评价模型,并在我国第六次森林资源清查(1999～2003)资料的基础上,对1973～2003年我国森林生物多样性的变化进行了补充评价。评价结果表明:我国森林生物多样性的压力越来越大,压力指数由1973年的100,上升到2003年的199.10,上升了1.99倍;森林物种多样性总体的下降趋势已有一定幅度的改变,森林物种多样性指数增加了31.12%。森林生态系统多样性和森林生物多样性先逐渐上升,尔后又下降,第六次森林资源清查时又有所恢复,并分别上升了4.67个百分点和17.90个百分点。     

Trust-A monolithic panacea in land use planning?

Although trust research has been extensive and substantial, the constitution and actual merits of trust in land use planning remain nebulous. What do participants of a local land use planning process actually mean when they say they trust the planning committee? How important is participants’ trust in the planning committee in shaping their perceptions of the planning process and their cooperation in it? To explore the everyday meaning of trust in the specific context of local land use planning, semi-structured interviews with the participants of a local planning project in Switzerland were conducted (n = 9). Based on these results, the constitution and the relevance of trust in the responsible planning committee among a wider circle of participants were assessed (n = 66). The results show that participants trust the planning committee if they perceive its members as competent, honest, open, fair, reliable, reciprocating, respectful and committed. Interestingly, a considerable part of trust in the planning committee hinges explicitly on whether the committee incorporates the personal interests of the participant. Trust is indeed vital to participants’ belief that a meaningful discussion and cooperation with the members of the planning committee is possible. However, trust is neither a guarantee for people's approval of planning decisions nor for their cooperation. One implication of the findings is that in order to evaluate trust-building practice comprehensively, it is necessary to first understand the specific everyday meaning of trust for ‘real people’ in real planning processes.     

转变地质工作发展与服务方式的实践和建议

天津市地矿局注重加快转变经济发展方式,发挥地质工作优势,推进低碳清洁能源的开发利用创新和技术进步,紧紧依托地质工作的人才、技术和行业优势,加大清洁环保资源的勘查、研究、开发、利用。针对天津市水资源缺乏的情况,积极加强后备和应紧水源勘查。按照“两种资源,两个市场”的思路,通过实施中外合作勘查项目,以境外勘查工作为载体和平台,实施引进来和走出去战略,为天津市经济社会发展提供地质技术支撑。     

Agricultural Land in Vietnam: Markets Tempered by Family, Community and Socialist Practices

Since the late 1980s, markets involving agricultural land have emerged in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. One major reason is that collective farms, previously a central feature of the country's political economy, ended. And a major reason for that was villagers' everyday politics gnawed the underpinnings of the collectives until they collapsed. Rural households, for the most part, wanted to farm separately. Today they do. Land is not privatized, however. Farming households have land use rights, not ownership. This tempers markets, as do other conditions arising from contending schools of thought in Vietnam about how land should be used, distributed and regulated.     

Conservation agriculture (CA) in Tanzania: the case of the Mwangaza B CA farmer field school (FFS), Rhotia Village,Karatu District,Arusha

This project was initiated to promote conservation agriculture (CA) in Tanzania so as to improve the food security and rural livelihood of small- and medium-scale farmers through the scaling-up of CA as a sustainable land management (SLM) tool as well as increasing the numbers of SLM-CA farmer field schools (FFS) in communities. The project had two phases from 2004 to 2010. It was funded by a Government of Germany trust fund and implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Ministry of Agriculture in Tanzania. The project pilot districts include Arumeru (Arusha and Meru Councils), Karatu, Babati, Hanang and Moshi districts. CA has been shown to offer positive elements that could contribute to fighting hunger and poverty.     

Successful Practices in California Wine Exporting

Abstract

California is one of the world's largest wine producers, yet it has exported only a small portion of its products. Many US wineries want to pursue opportunities in foreign markets but only a few are actually doing this successfully. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the successful practices of 12 California wineries that have achieved their financial targets and other export goals. A qualitative research design of in-depth interviews was employed. Results indicate that there are 5 major success factors, with the two most important being the foreign partner relationship and top management vision and commitment to exporting.     

Time Allocation Decisions Associated with Job Market Preparation: Undergraduate Perceptions versus Market Realities

A survey of agribusiness firms identifies characteristics associated with above average starting salary offers in the allied fields of agribusiness, agricultural economics, business, and economics. A complementary survey is made of students at Texas A&M University and University of Georgia. Results show that firms value work experience and leadership experience more than students do, whereas students value raising grade point average and interview preparation more than do firms. Students seeking a firm's maximum starting salary offer will need to enhance academic performance with substantial work experience and leadership experience.     

Developments in the Doha Round and WTO dispute settlement: some implications for EU agricultural policy

Progress in the Doha Round is assessed against the changes tothe common agricultural policy (CAP) brought about by the Fischlerreforms of 2003–2004, and that proposed for sugar. Anelimination of export subsidies could place EU exports of processedfoods at a competitive disadvantage because of high sugar andmilk prices. Provided the single payment scheme falls withinthe green box, the likely new limits on domestic support shouldnot be problematic for the post-Fischler CAP. However, an ambitiousmarket access package could open up EU markets and bring pressurefor further reform. If there is no Doha agreement, existingprovisions will continue to apply, but without the protectionof the Peace Clause; and increased litigation is likely. FurtherCAP reform is to be expected.