THE IAC'S APPROACH TO AGRICULTURAL POLICY*

The main recommendations contained in the IAC's reports on rural references are outlined. The Commission's reasoning on four issues that are widely viewed as important to the formulation of rural policy is examined. The four issues are: assistance to industry; terms of trade; uncertainty and instability; and adjustment policy. Criticisms are made of the IAC's argument on these issues, and some inconsistencies between reports are indicated. It is concluded that the IAC has made a valuable contribution to the discussion of rural policy in Australia even though its recommendations are sometimes sounder than the argument offered to support them.     

Improving recommendations resulting from on-farm research: agroforestry,risk, profitability and vulnerability in southern Malawi

Leguminous agroforestry (AF) species have been investigated and promoted in Malawi as a means to improve soil quality and maize (Zea mays) yields. Our objective was to determine whether AF systems' recommendations that solely consider impacts on average maize yields differ from those that include an analysis of production risk, profitability among different wealth groups and socioeconomic vulnerability. Employing participatory quantitative and qualitative on-farm research techniques, we investigated three AF-based maize/legume relay-cropping practices in southern Malawi. The perennial legumes included Sesbania sesban, Tephrosia vogelii and Cajanus cajan (pigeonpea). We found that AF species recommendations did diverge from those based solely on maximizing maize yields when incorporating risk, profitability and socioeconomic vulnerability as additional variables. For instance, the highest yielding system (the S. sesban/maize relay crop) was never recommended for the most vulnerable farmers based on the vulnerability analysis, and the cropping systems were often more profitable for the least vulnerable farmers than they were for the most vulnerable farmers. Cropping system recommendations based solely on obtaining the highest average maize yields would also have generally overlooked the economic and nutritional importance of pigeonpea, and the difficulty for the most vulnerable farmers to profit from fertilizers, potentially placing these farmers at greater risk.     

Nutrient Management and Farmers' Concept of Soil Fertility and Fertilisers: A Case Study in Southern Vietnam

Nutrient management in Vietnam was exposed to major changes with the introduction of the reform policy (‘doi moi’), which entailed the introduction of new crops and new fertilisers and increased consumption of mineral fertilisers, leading to higher yields but also possibly to higher losses of nutrients to the environment. However, sustainable nutrient management options can be developed through merging scientific and local concepts. Participatory methods were used to gather information about the farmers' concept of soil fertility, the fertilisers available and their features, and the information available. The farmers' concept of soil fertility was more directly connected to the ability of the whole system to promote good yields than the scientific concept of soil fertility as the soil's ability to deliver sufficient nutrients and water to the plant. The farmers' concept of fertilisers included a wide range of amendments that were added to promote good conditions for plant growth, rather than to provide nutrients for the crop. The study revealed an information system whereby some innovative farmers were the keys to other farmers' access to external information on nutrient management. The results show that any attempt made by outsiders to improve nutrient use efficiency must be applicable to the farmers' concepts.     

Does a better diet reduce dependence on imports? The case of Tunisia

In the last 40 years, Tunisia has experienced—as many other developing and emerging countries—a dietary transition, which led to an increase in the consumption of sugar, fats, and animal products. This transition was accompanied by an increase in noncommunicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases. Using mathematical programming, we optimized the Tunisian diet using the French dietary recommendations as constraints. Then, we used the Global Trade Analysis Project's constant elasticities of substitution in order to simulate the impact of fulfilling the nutrient recommendations on international trade and domestic supply. Using this approach, we showed that the Tunisian diet is rich in carbohydrates and sugar but lacks fibers, some minerals, and vitamins. The adherence to all recommendations would induce an imperative shift to less sugar and cereal-based products by reducing the import dependence on these products, but would result a dramatic increase in the domestic supply of products from animal origin, fruits, vegetables, and legumes.     

农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为的影响研究——以江西省农户调查为例

随着中国市场经济的繁荣发展,农产品市场化程度不断提高,土地资源作为农业生产最重要的物质基础,农业经营者在一定的制度环境约束下将土地围绕外部利润进行博弈,选择更加有利的土地经营方式,成为土地流转的主要驱动力。文章利用江西省834份农户调查样本数据,运用Heckman两阶段模型实证分析了农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为的影响。研究结果表明农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为存在显著的影响,主要表现在离农贸市场距离、农产品销售比例等变量上。另外,农业劳动时间比、土地细碎化与户主年龄、性别、教育年限、务农年限及5年内担任村干部亲属的人数、参加农村合作社等因素均对农户土地流入行为产生不同程度影响。基于此,该文对如何有效引导与推进农村土地市场化流转提出了加快农贸市场超市化改造,完善农产品流通模式;建立健全农村社会保障体系,替代土地的社会保障功能;大力发展农村教育,提高农业经营者的文化素质与受教育水平;鼓励农户在自愿基础上成立土地股份型农民专业合作社,引导农民由传统的产销合作向新型的产权合作方向发展等政策建议。     

Canadian Health and Food: The Links between Policy, Consumers, and Industry

The concerns around the social costs associated with poor, inadequate diets and unhealthy food choices have received much attention in both the popular and academic literature recently. In response, governments are starting to direct their attention toward the interplay between public health and the food economy. We begin by reviewing some of the known links between food and health, the recommendations coming from international and domestic bodies, and the perspective of industry. We then discuss the potential role of, and justifications for, policy interventions, and note that a failure to incorporate consumer response into the policymaking process has led to suboptimal outcomes in the past. We present a qualitative overview of the possible effects of Canadian agricultural policies, as well as examples from the limited literature in this area. In much the same way that the policymaking process is subject to environmental impact assessments, agricultural and food policies need to be formulated with a health filter in place order to avoid perverse dietary outcomes. Les préoccupations entourant les coûts sociaux liés à des régimes alimentaires déficients et à des choix alimentaires nuisibles pour la santé ont reçu récemment beaucoup d'attention dans les publications populaires et scientifiques. En réponse à ces préoccupations, les gouvernements commencent à se pencher sur l'interaction entre la santé publique et l'économie de l'alimentation. Nous avons d'abord examiné quelques‐uns des liens connus entre l'alimentation et la santé, les recommandations d'organismes nationaux et internationaux et le point de vue de l'industrie. Nous avons ensuite discuté du rôle potentiel des interventions politiques, et des justifications pour ces interventions, et avons noté que le fait de ne pas intégrer la réaction du consommateur dans le processus d'élaboration des politiques a entraîné des résultats sous‐optimaux dans le passé. Nous présentons un aperçu qualitatif des répercussions possibles des politiques agricoles canadiennes ainsi que des exemples tirés de la littérature limitée dans ce domaine. Tout comme le processus d'élaboration des politiques est soumis à des évaluations de l'impact sur l'environnement, les politiques agroalimentaires doivent être élaborées en tenant compte de la santé en vue d'éviter les conséquences perverses liées à l'alimentation.     

An Agent-Based Model of Entrepreneurial Behavior in Agri-Food Markets

Rapid technological innovation and globalization have led to increasingly complex agri‐food supply chains and networks, and uncertain agri‐food markets. Given this type of competitive environment, management scholars have argued that agri‐food firms that adopt capabilities for entrepreneurship will outperform firms that do not. We use agent‐based simulation methods to explore this hypothesis. Agent‐based models are particularly relevant in this study as they allow for the explicit simulation of the entrepreneurial behaviors and firm interactions that lead to wealth creation. In our analysis, we find that entrepreneurial capabilities of alertness, risk‐taking, and efficiency vary in their effect on firm performance given alternative agri‐food strategic landscape configurations. L'innovation technologique rapide et la mondialisation ont donné lieu à des chaînes d'approvisionnement agroalimentaire et à des réseaux de plus en plus complexes ainsi qu'à des marchés agroalimentaires incertains. Compte tenu de ce type d'environnement concurrentiel, les spécialistes en gestion soutiennent que les entreprises agroalimentaires qui possèdent des capacités entrepreneuriales surclasseront celles qui n'en possèdent pas. Nous avons utilisé des modèles de simulation multi‐agent pour étudier cette hypothèse. Les modèles multi‐agent sont particulièrement pertinents dans la présente étude puisqu'ils permettent la simulation explicite de comportements entrepreneuriaux et d'interactions entre firmes qui engendrent la création de richesse. Les résultats de notre analyse ont montré que les capacités entrepreneuriales, telles que la vigilance, la prise de risque et l'efficacité, ont des répercussions variées sur la performance d'une firme en raison de différentes configurations stratégiques du paysage agroalimentaire.     

Examining the Adoption of Product and Process Innovations in the Canadian Food Processing Industry

In this paper we study the factors associated with innovation in the food processing industry using a survey of Western Canadian food processors. Our primary motivation is to gain a better understanding of the mechanics of innovation related to the adoption of product and process innovation. In particular, we consider the jointness of ex post realizations of product and process innovations, and assess whether there are underlying differences that result from innovations developed inhouse versus those developed externally by a third party. Using a multivariate probit model, we find evidence of significant interrelationships between product and process innovations that are developed inhouse. These findings suggest that firms that conduct both process and product innovations inhouse are better able to enjoy complementarities that arise in the discovery process. We also find that firms are more likely to innovate in response to keeping pace with competitors. Dans le présent article, nous examinons les facteurs liés à l'innovation dans l'industrie de la transformation alimentaire, à l'aide d'un sondage effectué auprès des transformateurs agroalimentaires dans l'Ouest canadien. L'objectif principal vise à mieux comprendre les mécanismes de l'innovation liés à l'adoption de nouveaux produits et procédés. Nous examinons les liens entre les réalisations ex post de nouveaux produits et procédés, et nous évaluons s'il existe ou non des différences sous‐jacentes découlant du développement de produits à l'interne par rapport au développement de produits à l'externe par des tiers. À l'aide d'un modèle probit multivariable, nous montrons qu'il existe une interdépendance considérable entre les nouveaux produits et procédés élaborés à l'interne. Ces résultats autorisent à penser que les entreprises qui mettent au point de nouveaux produits et procédés à l'interne sont mieux en mesure de profiter des avantages complémentaires qu'engendre le processus de découverte. Les entreprises sont également plus enclines à innover pour suivre les concurrents.     

江汉平原农户焚烧秸秆决策行为影响因素解析以荆州市为例

目的 江汉平原作为全国重要的粮食产区,其焚烧秸秆的现象仍然屡禁不止,特别是秋收季节,对当地大气环境造成了较大影响。调查江汉平原农户焚烧秸秆的行为,旨在了解农户焚烧秸秆行为决策的影响因素。方法 文章通过问卷调查方法,在荆州市荆州区、沙市区、公安县、监利县等县市的13个村随机选取了320名农户作为调查样本,进行了实地调查,并且运用二元Logistic回归分析对问卷结果进行统计分析。结果 （1）农户秸秆焚烧行为受到内外因素共同作用,其中农户年龄、文化程度、政府提供秸秆综合利用技术指导、宣传力度与监察力度的大小均对农户焚烧秸秆决策行为有显著影响,是影响秸秆焚烧行为产生的关键因素（P<0.05）;（2）年龄、文化程度、政府提供技术指导、禁烧政策宣传力度和政府监察力度均与农户焚烧秸秆决策行为呈负相关关系（B<0）。结论 年龄较大、文化程度越高的农户越不易焚烧秸秆,政府禁烧政策宣传力度越大、监察力度越大、对农户提供的技术指导越多,农户们越不易对秸秆进行焚烧,可为相关部门在制定秸秆禁烧政策时提供科学参考。     

非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响研究——来自CHFS的实证分析

目的 在我国农村人口非农就业转移进程不断加深背景下,非农就业活动改变了农户家庭与农地之间的依附关系,研究非农就业活动对农户农地价值预期的影响,既有助于理解农地价值形成机理,又对推进我国农业农村现代化具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2015年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）农户层面的微观数据,以耕地作为农地的代表,采用OLS回归模型和中介效应模型实证分析非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响。结果 非农就业并未降低农户对农地的依赖、减少耕地要素投入,相反非农就业增强了土地替代要素的投入、激发了农户农转非的资本积累需求,从而导致农户提高了农地的价值预期。结论 （1）我国农户的非农就业转移并未完成,亟需创新和完善农村土地流转机制;（2）农地依旧是农户生存的重要保证,需积极支撑或培育专业化农业生产性服务业和智能化农业机械制造业的发展,弥补农业劳动力非农转移带来的负面效应,加快推进我国农业农村现代化。     

农业水价综合改革的推进困境及成因分析——基于小农户风险视角

农业水价综合改革在部分地区进展相对滞后。利用制度变迁及制度配置理论,分析了农业水价综合改革推进困境的特征及成因。结果表明,农业水价综合改革推进困境的主要特征是部分地区小农户对农业水价提高的接受意愿较低,客观上造成精准补贴和节水奖励难以发挥作用。该困境的核心成因是奖补政策无法缓解改革中的小农户风险,具体表现为:小农户对已有非正式农业用水制度的路径依赖,催生了对农业水价新制度的适应风险;农村社会保障制度等相关初级制度不够完善,加剧了农业水价提高后小农户的生产和生活风险。提出应因地制宜地设计农业水价改革的微观主体管理模式,将生存灌溉补贴和农业保险补贴纳入奖补政策,完善农村基础设施和社会保障体系。     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

Examining the Leontief Paradox in U.S. Agricultural Trade

Factor intensity of United States agricultural trade is examined in the context of Leontief's classic paradox using Leontief's method as well as methods developed recently by Leamer and others. Findings indicate that factor endowments are important determinants of U.S. agriculture's comparative advantage in trade as suggested by the Heckscher-Ohlin theory.     

Improvements to Market Efficiency through the Operation of the Alberta Pork Producers' Marketing Board

This study evaluates the market performance of the Alberta Pork Producers' Marketing Boar J since it became the single selling agency for hogs in Alberta in 1969. Concepts of pricing and operational efficiency are applied, and comparisons made with Winnipeg, Toronto, and the average of seven U.S. markets. The effect of market information on operational and pricing efficiency is also assessed. Cost reductions in the hog marketing system are used to assess operational efficiency. Cost savings are documented and attributed to the Producers' Hog Indemnity Fund, the assembly yard system, the hog allocation system, the “cheque float mechanism.” and the hog settlement procedure. Pricing efficiency is evaluated using graphic. statistical and econometric methods. Results from these techniques are compared, among market areas, during various time periods representing policy changes by the board. The major conclusions from this study are that the board's selling and market information procedures have improved operational efficiency. However, a firm conclusion concerning pricing efficiency cannot be made because of mixed evidence. It is recommended that other commodity interests could benefit from becoming involved in co-operative selling through a single selling agency. Cette étude a évalu'e le succés du marché de la régie albertaine de mise en marché du pore. Depuis 1969, e'est ia seule agence de venle des produits du pore en Alberta. Les auteurs considered ?efficacité de la détermination desprix et des operations et comparenl les marchés de Winnipeg, Toronto et une moyenne de sept marchés américains. ?information disponible sur le marché a étéévaluée aussi afin de déterminer son effet sur ?efficacité operalionnelle ainsi que ?efficacité du mécanisme des prix. Les conclusions principales de cette étude sont que les procédures de vente et ?approvisionnemenl de ?information sur le marché ont amélioré?efficacité operalionnelle de la régie. Cependant, à cause ?évidence mixte, une conclusion definitive concernant ?efficacité due mécanisme des prix ne peut pas étre formulée. Les auteurs recommandent que les producteurs ?autres produits de base pourraient profiler ?une participation dans la vente co-opérative par une agence unique de vente.     

Predictive performance of the World Bank's commodity price projections

The World Bank's commodity price projections are widely used for various planning purposes. Two aspects of the Bank's projections of relative prices are studied in this paper. The first is whether the forecasts make efficient use of the information available at the time the forecast is made. The second is whether the forecasts predict future prices with greater accuracy than alternative forecasting methods. These matters are studied by comparing the World Bank's past price projections with the actual prices that were subsequently observed. The results show that, overall, the World Bank forecasts do not pass either test. First, the World Bank forecasts are informationally inefficient. Prediction error (projection minus actual price) tends to be positively correlated with the projections themselves. Although the direction of future price movements tends to be correctly predicted, the magnitude of these movements tends to be overpredicted. Second, the World Bank forecasts do not perform well even compared with the simplest of alternative forecasting methods - the prediction of no change.     

我国奶业市场结构的量化评估、机制分析及规制理路

目的 21世纪以来我国奶业快速发展,市场结构不断呈现新状态和新特征。通过综合研判我国奶业市场的结构类型,进而分析我国现阶段市场结构类型形成的动因及影响,并对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。方法 文章基于2001—2020年《中国奶业年鉴》及企业年报整理所得数据,利用行业集中度指数、洛伦兹曲线与基尼系数、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数、熵指数综合研判了我国奶业市场的结构类型,进而分析形成动因及影响,并结合国内外经验对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。结果 （1）近20年我国奶业市场结构呈现3阶段变化,2004年及以前处于垄断竞争阶段;2005—2016年处于垄断竞争向寡头垄断过渡阶段;2017年及以后进入初级双寡头垄断阶段。（2）我国奶业初级双寡头垄断市场结构是来自市场竞争的自然形成,规模效应、行业壁垒和全球化趋势是寡头垄断市场形成的主因。结论 现阶段我国奶业市场已进入初级的寡头垄断阶段,寡头垄断市场有利有弊,我国应从制度上进行顶层设计,发挥寡头垄断模式的积极作用,减少其负面效应的影响,保障奶业持续健康发展。     

Context-Dependent BSE Impacts on Canadian Fresh Beef Purchases

Household-level Nielsen Homescan data from 2002 to 2006 were used to identify Canadian consumers'; reactions to the early Bovine spongiform encephalopathy discoveries that severely impacted Canada's beef industry. Consumers reacted to the initial BSE event by purchasing more fresh beef, apparently to support struggling ranchers. Reaction to each subsequent BSE discovery, however, was negative and diminishing in magnitude. The results were consistent across 3 measures of monthly beef purchases: participation, units purchased, and beef expenditure. Failing to account for the context of individual BSE events would have produced little evidence of consumer reaction, a common finding among prior North American BSE studies.     

Historical grounding,political contexts,material hurdles: Towards more in-depth understandings of ‘finance going farming’

Two recently published books—Fairbairn's Fields of Gold and Ouma's Farming as a Financial Asset—now provide the first extensive investigations into finance's engagement with farmland. Both books set out to understand finance's growing interest in farmland from the perspective of the financial actors involved, and inquire how, why, and with what kind of challenges ‘finance has been going farming.’ This review essay discusses the two books in the context of the ‘land rush’ literature. It outlines how they contribute to an advanced understanding of the financialization of farmland in three ways, by (i) embedding finance-farmland intersections historically; (ii) scrutinizing the role of the state within financial farmland investments; and (iii) exploring the hurdles involved in ‘marrying’ finance with farmland. I then critically reflect on the areas that have not been covered by the authors. Critical agrarian studies need to investigate how financialization intersects with the digitization of agriculture, examine life expectancies and afterlives of financialized farms, further ground financial investment in concrete rural spaces, and explore individual motivations and belief systems of its proponents more seriously.     

Chinese land policies and farmers’ adoption of organic fertilizer for saline soils

Soil salinization has become a global concern and poses a great threat to food production and sustainable land use. Land use policies are the main driver of saline soil farmland use in ecosystems. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for analyzing how saline soil farmland use is affected by land use practices of individual farm households. An empirical study, using an ordered probit model, was conducted based on questionnaire responses from farm households in 8 towns and 14 villages in eco-fragile areas in Shandong, Jilin and Xinjiang provinces. The results suggest that land tenure, state systems agricultural support, characteristics of a field parcel and characteristics of the farm households have different influences on farmer's land use in three regions. The adoption of organic fertilizer by individual households is constrained by the lack of stability and integrity in land tenure. Furthermore, the parcel of a field is generally small, sparsely distributed and often fragmented, which increases costs. Even subsidizing organic fertilizer does not necessarily help in its adoption. Given these challenges, this study makes recommendations for different regions that may promote the adoption of improved saline soil farmland cultivation methods by farmers.     

Crisis of capitalism and cycles of right-wing populism in contemporary Turkey: The making and unmaking of Erdoğanist hegemony

This paper analyses the right-wing populist rule of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) in Turkey, focusing on the crisis of capitalism, emerging discontent in the rural populations, and opportunities for and obstacles to a successful left-wing populist mobilisation. We put forward three arguments. First, through an examination of the historical evolution, class-based and social-demographic foundations of the ruling right-wing populist alliance between the AKP and the Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi (MHP), we argue that the MHP is a more classical case of far-right populism, whereas the AKP is a “heterodox” case that borrows several elements from the left. These “heterodox” features of the AKP, together with the interlinked crisis of the 1990s, played a significant part in the support the AKP received from the subordinate majority. Second, we argue that the success of the AKP's hegemonic right-wing populism from 2002 to 2013 was linked to an unusually favourable macro-political-economic climate that helped the AKP counterbalance its neoliberal policies with pragmatic social assistance programmes. However, together with the disappearance of this macro-political-economic climate in the second decade of its rule (2013-present), the disastrous consequences of the AKP's neoliberal policies became more explicit, and the AKP's populism moved from a hegemonic to an authoritarian right-wing populist type. Third, we claim that today, due to the deepening of the current economic crisis (further exacerbated by the Covid19 pandemic), the AKP's cross-class alliance began to break down, and the rural movements in the Turkish countryside have been playing a major role in unmaking the AKP's hegemony. However, in the absence of a strong left-wing populist movement with a stronghold in the Turkish countryside, emergent possibilities for a radical progressive transformation are not utilised. Instead, the groundwork is being laid for another wave of right-wing populism.