水利基础设施投资与城镇化进程的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

运用VAR模型,构建我国水利基础设施投资额与城镇化率之间的动态关系系统,重点分析两者之间的相互关系和影响机制。Granger因果关系分析表明,水利基础设施投资额是城镇化率变化的Granger原因。通过VAR(4)模型可知,水利基础设施投资额与城镇化率构成的指标体系是长期稳定的。通过脉冲响应分析与方差分解分析可知,长期来看,水利基础设施投资会加速我国的城镇化进程,但在水利基础设施的建设期和运营期,这种影响的大小会有所不同。     

Bits and pieces: Forest fragmentation by linear intrusions in India

Linear infrastructure development is an important driver of forest fragmentation leading to habitat and biodiversity loss as well as disruption of critical ecosystem processes. The tropical forests of India are increasingly impacted by infrastructure development. Little quantitative information is available on the extent of fragmentation due to linear infrastructure on these habitats. Here, we quantified fragmentation due to linear infrastructure by studying forest structural connectivity. We compared the existing forest patch characteristics with a scenario that excluded all linear infrastructure. We classified forest patches into three different fragmentation categories that combined information on patch size, inter patch distance and percentage perforations. Results show that power-transmission lines and roads were the most common infrastructure features within forests. We found a 6% increase in the number of forest patches due to the construction of linear infrastructure. Forest patches >10,000 km² in size were severely affected and there was a 71.5 % reduction in the number of such patches. We found that 86 % of the existing forest patches are in the small (median patch size <1 km²) and isolated (a median distance of 155 m) category. The density of linear infrastructure inside protected areas was similar to density in non-protected forested areas. Our results highlight the need to minimize the effects of fragmentation in the future by considering re-routing or bundling of infrastructure. When infrastructure is unavoidable, there is a need to mitigate their potential impacts. The results of this study have been made publicly accessible (https://indiaunderconstruction.com) to provide information on 'where' to avoid future linear infrastructure development and to make informed decisions which can lead to optimally designed local management plans.     

3D Cadastres in India: Examining the status and potential for land administration and management in Delhi

Urbanization and the trend towards complex infrastructure development challenges the traditional two-dimensional (2D) cadastral representations used in conventional land administration. Three-dimensional (3D) representations are argued to serve as the future basis upon which to spatially define rights, restrictions and responsibilities (RRRs) in these environments. In Delhi, the capital city of India, where horizontal expansion via new settlements in peri-urban areas, and vertical expansion by densification of city infrastructure, are both prevalent, the need to manage this increasingly complex 3D infrastructure environment presents a great challenge for land administration and management agencies. This paper explores both the current and potential future application of 3D representation in Delhi, with respect to land use planning, development and management. A cross-cutting thematic case study analysis is undertaken: policy drivers, legal frameworks, organizational aspects, and technical standards are considered. For each aspect a separate analytical approach is used. Based on the results, it is concluded that current practices related to 3D representation are somewhat immature and not adequate for capturing the future vertical growth of Delhi. This could lead to legal and physical boundary inconsistencies and irregularities, and dispute cases. However, by learning from international developments and standards-based approaches, agencies have the potential to enhance and support processes in their respective land administration systems. To realize this potential, internal and external policies, institutional settings and, technical and financial arrangements need to be reformed. In the short term it is recommended to focus on raising awareness for the widespread adoption of 3D representations in relevant agencies in Delhi.     

Factors influencing hybrid rice adoption: a Bangladesh case

As rice constitutes the major share in cereal consumption in South and East Asian countries that ranges from as low as 40 per cent in India to 97 per cent in Myanmar, to ensure food security, governments in these countries are encouraging farmers to adopt hybrid rice. This is mainly because hybrid rice provides a yield gain of 15–20 per cent over conventionally bred varieties in general. Yet, despite strenuous government efforts, farmers’ adoption rates have remained low in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam compared with China. Although studies often claim that higher seed costs and inferior grain quality are the major factors limiting hybrid rice adoption, very few studies examine the importance of socio‐economic factors and infrastructure in the adoption of hybrid rice. Using Bangladesh as a case, a comparative analysis has been made on the adoption of hybrid and modern varieties relative to traditional rice varieties and land allocation to these varieties. Econometric results indicate that general land characteristics, loan facilities and general infrastructure, such as roads, irrigation facilities and the availability of government‐approved seed dealers, significantly influence the adoption of hybrid and modern rice varieties and land allocation to these varieties compared with traditional varieties.     

攀枝花市咖啡产业发展存在问题及对策研究

发展特色农业是西部农业开发的重点,是推进西部地区农业结构战略性调整,发挥西部地区资源优势,增加农民收入,保护和建设西部生态环境的重要途径。四川省攀枝花市地处金沙江干热河谷地区、近几年已经筛选出了德热28、墨西哥11号、印度S288、卡蒂莫79635、蓝山5个适合推广种植的优质小粒种咖啡品种,发展咖啡产业条件优越。运用调查法、文献研究法等研究方法,首先从种植的自然条件,政策机遇、区位,市场需求前景等方面分析了攀枝花咖啡产业发展的有利条件;并在介绍攀枝花咖啡产业发展基本情况的基础上,分析了攀枝花咖啡产业发展存在的问题;针对存在的产业认识不高、基础设施薄弱、争地、产品附加值低、融资困难等问题,从组织领导、政策扶持、基础设施建设、种植模式和技术、、品牌建设、龙头企业及专业合作组织、融资渠道等方面提出推动攀枝花咖啡产业发展的相应策略。     

港口建设与沿海城市经济发展互动关系的计量分析——基于协整理论和格兰杰检验并以青岛市为例

截取1997～2008年数据，运用计量经济学的协整理论及格兰杰检验方法得出的研究结论是，在青岛市经济增长和青岛港的发展的互动关系中，是青岛市的经济增长在推动青岛港的发展，而不是一般认为的青岛港的发展在带动青岛市的经济增长。在青岛市今后港城互动发展政策的制定过程中应侧重于加大港口建设对城市经济的拉大力度，进一步促进青岛市港城经济的互动发展。     

External Debt and Capital Flight in the Indian Economy

This paper estimates Indian capital flight at US $88 billion (in 1997 dollars) over the 1971‐97 period, a sum that is roughly 20% of the US $448 billion real external debt disbursed to the country over the same time period. There is also evidence of a strong year-to-year correlation between debt inflows and flight-capital outflows. The paper explores the nature of this association between capital flight and external debt in the Indian economy. An analysis by Boyce (1992, World Development, 20, pp. 335‐349) for the Philippines revealed the presence of contemporaneous bi-directional causality, in other words, a financial revolving door relationship between external debt and capital flight in that economy. The research question addressed by this paper is whether such a financial revolving door relationship exists in India, given its higher level of external indebtedness and lower debt-to-GNP ratio as compared with the Philippines. Utilizing a simultaneous equation model to examine the association between capital flight and external debt in the Indian economy, the paper confirms the existence of a financial revolving door relationship between the two endogenous variables.     

Market facilities and agricultural marketing: evidence from Tamil Nadu,India

This article analyzes the effect of facilities and infrastructure available at the marketplace on a farmer's decision to sell at the market. The econometric estimation shows that the likelihood of sales at the market increases significantly with an improvement in market facilities and a decrease in travel time from the village to the market. The results suggest that wealth reduces a farmer's cost of accessing market facilities more than it increases her/his opportunity cost of leisure. The policy simulation indicates that the marginal benefits from an improvement in market facility will favor the poorer farmers in the context of India.     

家具产业集聚外部驱动因素的实证研究——来自1988～2008数据的PCA与Granger检验分析

通过分析获取了产业集聚外部动因有效的变量,采集1988～2008年家具产业两位数的相关数据,研究家具产业基尼系数、家具产业国内消费量、出口量、全国固定投资额、居民消费水平5个变量的关系,以家具产业基尼系数为被解释变量建立PCA模型,并提取方差进行回归分析,并对变量间进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。结论表明投资与家具产业集聚是双向因果的关系,国内家具消费与家具产业集聚是弱的双向因果关系,家具出口则是单向因果关系。揭示出家具产业长期以来的低附加值生产方式,在没有或外部需求出现较强波动时,可能会造成多米诺骨牌效应,从而加快产业集聚反向替代的进程。     

Is agriculture the engine of growth?

We seek to address formally the question raised by Gardner (2003) in his Elmhirst lecture as to the direction of causality between agricultural value added per worker and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Using the Granger causality test in the panel data analyzed by Gardner for 85 countries, we find overwhelming evidence that supports the conclusion that agricultural value added is the causal variable in developing countries, while the direction of causality in developed countries is unclear. We also examine further the use of the Granger causality test in integrated data and provide evidence that the performance of the test can be increased in small samples through the use of the bootstrap.