Structure of Public Support for National Agricultural Research Systems: A Political Economy Perspective

This paper initiates development of a set of stylized facts concerning the structure of public support for national agricultural research systems (NARS) within a neoclassical political economy framework. The aim is to place public funding of NARS in the broader context of the overall level of direct government assistance to agriculture. Using a newly constructed data set on NARS expenditures over the 1970-85 period, we observe a growing disparity in agricultural research intensity ratios, which measure the level of public support for NARS in relation to agricultural gross domestic production (Aggdp ) between low and high-income countries. This growing disparity appears to be driven by much larger increases in support for agricultural research by high-income countries, coupled with a significantly slower growth in the size of their agricultural sector, despite the propensity of low and middle-income countries to increase real support to agricultural research. As per-capita incomes rise the public agricultural expenditure ratio, which measures public expenditures on agriculture relative to the size of the agricultural sector, Aggdp , increases substantially. Public expenditures on agriculture were indexed on agricultural and non-agricultural populations to give a rough indication of the increasing incentives for rural 'distributional coalitions' to seek a redistribution of public expenditures in their favor. A relative research expenditure (rre ) ratio is developed, which measures the proportion of total public expenditure on agriculture spent on agricultural research. It provides an indication of the relative importance given to research on agriculture within the constraints imposed by overall public spending on agriculture. In contrast to the agricultural research intensity ratios, the rre ratios suggest that agricultural research appears to command as large a share of the public purse devoted to agriculture in low and middle-income countries as it does in high-income countries. Expectations derived from the neoclassical political economy literature that research may have fared relatively better in high compared with low-income countries were not supported by the data.     

土地财政、预算软约束与地方政府债务规模

研究目的:从土地财政在政府举债中的重要地位出发,研究土地财政与预算软约束对政府债务规模的影响机制;实证分析预算软约束在土地财政和地方政府债务规模之间的中介效应;对控制地方政府债务规模、促进政府对土地资源的科学管理提出政策建议。研究方法:对2008—2011年和2013—2015年的28个省级面板数据进行回归分析;中介效应模型检验。研究结果:土地财政与预算软约束均与地方政府债务规模显著正相关;预算软约束在土地财政与地方政府债务规模间存在显著的中介效应。研究结论:解决地方政府的债务风险问题和土地管理问题,必须严控土地资源的抵押转化,限制预算软约束;同时适当引入竞争性的土地交易机制,促进土地财政、土地金融的改革。     

Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India

Using state-level data for 1970–93, a simultaneous equation model was developed to estimate the direct and indirect effects of different types of government expenditure on rural poverty and productivity growth in India. The results show that in order to reduce rural poverty, the Indian government should give highest priority to additional investments in rural roads and agricultural research. These types of investment not only have much larger poverty impacts per rupee spent than any other government investment, but also generate higher productivity growth. Apart from government spending on education, which has the third largest marginal impact on rural poverty and productivity growth, other investments (including irrigation, soil and water conservation, health, and rural and community development) have only modest impacts on growth and poverty per additional rupee spent.     

乡镇债务对乡镇财政支出结构的影响——基于债务用途的视角

本文按照债务用途的资金性质将乡镇债务分为生产性负债和非生产性负债两大类,并通过理论分析和实证分析探讨了两者对乡镇财政支出结构的影响。研究发现,第一,生产性负债对政府投资和政府消费有明显的正向影响,非生产性负债对政府消费有明显的正向影响,但对政府投资的影响则不一定;第二,无论人均数还是比例数,乡镇债务对政府消费的影响程度均大于对政府投资的影响程度,使得乡镇政府的财政支出结构向有利于政府消费的一方倾斜。这从一个侧面说明债务资金的使用和管理存在很大的漏洞,因此要彻底解决乡镇债务问题还必须着力提高财政资金的使用效率、完善乡镇财政的监督和管理制度。     

AGRICULTURAL FINANCE AND INFLATION: AN EXAMINATION OF ALTERNATIVE METHODS WITH REFERENCE TO BRITISH EXPERIENCE

Increased inflation has the effect of increasing nominal interest rates which in turn cause problems in servicing debts in the form of conventional loans. Price-level-adjusted mortgages (PLAMs) have been recommended as a means of avoiding debt servicing difficulties associated with inflation. Bank overdrafts can act as effective substitutes for PLAMs and have some tax advantages. Leasing also provides an alternative way of avoiding cash flow problems associated with conventional term loans. Experience in the 1970s demonstrated that the provision of external finance to agriculture was maintained during a period of inflation although the balance of borrowing shifted from term loans to overdrafts.     

On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries

Time series analysis of annual data for a sample of developing countries shows the allocation of government spending shocks, both positive and negative, between price inflation and output growth. Cross-country regressions evaluate determinants of the difference in the real effects of government spending shocks. If the real effects decrease, capacity constraints are more binding and if they increase, the elasticity of aggregate demand is larger with respect to the change in government spending. Cross-country regressions also evaluate the implications of government spending shocks on the difference in trend price inflation and output growth. The variability of government spending shocks decreases trend real output growth and increases trend price inflation across countries.     

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON AGRICULTURE AND AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUTION

In recent years, new prominence has been assigned to the effects of non-price measures on the performance of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Nevertheless, the contribution of government expenditure to agricultural output growth has not received its due attention. This paper endeavours to estimate the impact of government expenditure (on agriculture) on the performance of the agricultural sector. An inter-country production function is estimated for a sample of thirty-five developing countries, pooling cross-section and time-series data over the 1974-84 period. The influence of instability in government expenditure on agriculture and on agricultural growth is also assessed. The results show that government expenditure policies are of vital importance in influencing the performance of the agricultural sector. It was also found that instability in government expenditure is a deterrent to agricultural output growth.     

Reform of tenancy systems and agrarian development: A Latin American case study

The present study employs recent World Bank data to shed light, in a global context, on the transformation of changes in income and inequality into poverty reduction for a large number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study begins by discussing SSA's progress on poverty. Next, it presents data on how various African countries have fared in terms of the incidence of poverty relative to other countries, with special emphasis on the period since the mid-1990s, when SSA generally experienced a growth resurgence. The paper then decomposes performance on poverty into changes in income and inequality for a sample of SSA countries that have the requisite data. The paper finds that recent progress on poverty has been considerable, in contrast to the earlier, 1980–early 1990s, period. Compared with the progress in a global sample of countries, however, progress has been mixed: nonetheless, although African countries lag behind the Brazil, India, China and Russia group of countries as a whole, many of them have outperformed India. Furthermore, while income growth is found to be the main engine for poverty reduction in SSA in general, the role of inequality is crucial in certain countries. Viewed in a global context, moreover, the low levels of income have inhibited the effectiveness of income and inequality improvements in reducing poverty in many African countries.     

财政支出结构的国际比较及借鉴

公共财政是市场经济国家财政运行模式。现阶段我国要建立与市场机制相适应的公共财政，就必须科学界定公共财政支出范围，优化财政支出结构，这样才能提高财政支出效率，降低政府运作成本，减少对竞争性领域的财政投资，增加基础设施和基础产业的投入力度，强化和公益事业支出，实现支出结构的优化调整。根据有关国家支出项目的分类，对市场经济国家的财政支出结构进行比较分析，以期对建立我国的支出框架有所借鉴。     

Developing country debt: implications for agricultural trade

There has been a sharp decline in the rate of economic growth in many developing countries in the 1980s compared with the 1970s. Reduced availability of external finance following the international debt crisis has been identified as one of the most important factors responsible for this decline. At the same time there has been a slowdown in the rate of growth of food imports to these countries, particularly to the highly indepted ones. The focus in the paper is on the implications for international agricultural commodity markets of a dept write-off in developing countries. To analyse these implications a world agricultural trade model is used. Specifically, the analysis covers the effect of existing debt on the permanent incomes of developing debtor countries and developed creditor countries, and hence the effect on agricultural commodity markets. The results indicate that, if the debts of the developing countries were written off, prices would improve in consequence of the resulting rise in their permanent incomes. If the debt write-off also led to growth in developing countries returning to the levels prevalent before the debt crisis, the improvements in world prices would be likely to be much larger.     

Healthy targets? World Bank projects and targeted health programmes and policies in Costa Rica,Argentina, and Peru, 1980–2005

Despite its central role in diffusing neoliberal policies and its status as an important external funder of health, the World Bank’s effect on health policies in developing countries has been little explored. I examine how the World Bank framed and funded targeting in healthcare in Costa Rica, Argentina, and Peru. Results indicate that the World Bank and national governments pursue targeting and justify its implementation differently across countries. While both national government and the World Bank cite efficiency and equity concerns as a rationale for targeting, the World Bank is more likely to invoke efficiency and cost-cutting measures. Targeting also happens against the backdrop of very different policies across these countries: coexisting with universalism in Costa Rica, growing public insurance in Peru, and a federally managed health system in Argentina. Domestic factors associated with countries’ existing health systems, in particular coverage and segmentation in the health sector, helps account for variation in both the groups/areas targeted and the discourse and rationale in national and World Bank documents. I conclude by discussing the implications of these results for our understanding of the World Bank’s influence on health policies in developing countries.     

河南农村人口就地向城镇转移成本研究

河南农村一个"标准户"就地向城镇转移的短期成本为35650.9元,长期成本(总成本)为69658.6元。从构成上看,义务教育成本、保障性住房成本与城市管理费用成本是主要支出。尽管城市管理费用成本的占比很大,但这项支出是一个缓慢释放的过程(一直持续到居民死亡),每年的支出并不多。就短期而言,子女教育和保障性住房则是最主要支出,需要政府在农村人口进城后的前几年予以支付。由于河南在养老保险与医疗保险方面已经实现了城乡一体化,所以短期的成本增量为0,但从长期看,农村人口向城镇转移还可以降低政府在这方面的支出。     

Financing agricultural R&D in rich countries: what's happening and why

Governments everywhere are trimming their support for agricultural R&D, giving greater scrutiny to the support that they do provide, and reforming the public agencies that fund, oversee, and carry out the research. This represents a break from previous patterns, which had consisted of expansion in the public funds for agricultural R&D. Private-sector spending on agricultural research has slowed along with the growth of public spending in recent years, but the balance continues to shift towards the private sector. This article presents a quantitative review of these funding trends and the considerable institutional changes that have accompanied them. We discuss new data for 22 OECD countries, providing institutional details for five of these countries, and conclude with an assessment of policy developments.     

Investment,subsidies, and pro‐poor growth in rural India

This article reviews the trends in government subsidies and investments in and for Indian agriculture; develops a conceptual framework and a model to assess the impact of various subsidies and investments on agricultural growth and poverty reduction; and presents reform options with regard to re‐prioritizing government spending. Subsidies in credit, fertilizer, and irrigation have been crucial for small farmers to adopt new technologies particularly during the initial stage of the green revolution in the late 1960s and 1970s. But it is now investments in agricultural research, education, and rural roads that are the three most effective public spending items in promoting agricultural growth and reducing poverty.     

FARM CREDIT POLICY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT*

This paper discusses the farm credit policies pursued by governments in low-income countries. It is argued that, in the early stages of development, peasant attitudes to debt are such that cheap credit is unlikely to be a useful growth stimulus. It is shown that the effectiveness of credit depends on the ability and willingness of the peasants to devote such additional funds to productive uses. The poor performance of many government rural credit programmes in low-income countries is discussed and criteria for a successful programme are presented.     

AN ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVE TO CONCESSIONAL FARM INTEREST RATES

A variable amortization plan is proposed, indexing annual payments made by farm mortgage borrowers. A debt reserve balance also is proposed to stabilize payments received by lenders. Research implied by the proposal is outlined, together with modelling suggestions for investigating effects of the plan on farm income after debt servicing requirements have been met.     

Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure: Impact on the Consumption of Indian Households

This paper examines whether out-of-pocket health expenditure affects the composition of household consumption. Based on Indian data, conditional Engel curves for 10 broad categories of goods and services, namely food, intoxicants, fuel, clothing and footwear, education, entertainment, travel, rent, durables and other goods have been estimated. Conditional Engel curves show whether the share of a particular good is increased or decreased in household consumption due to health expenditure. The findings suggest that poor households decrease the share of clothing and education and increase the share of food, fuel and travel. It has also been found that households from less developed states and from states with lower public health expenditure were more affected.     

Agricultural policies and food systems: Priorities for indicator development

Existing indicators of agricultural protection and support were developed primarily to gauge the market and welfare effects of government policies. They have shed light on a wider range of impacts through their use in economic models and empirical analysis. The rising scale of support to agriculture globally, and continued reliance on market distorting policy instruments, make this work as important as ever. Deeper investments are nonetheless needed to address heightened concerns about the spill-over impacts of agricultural policies on the performance of food systems, in particular with respect to food security and nutrition, rural livelihoods, resource use and the environment, and global emissions. A first area for development is improved measures of policies to correct agriculture's externalities. A priority here is to develop a carbon tax equivalent of sectoral mitigation efforts. A second area is to provide a clearer delineation of government spending on private versus public goods. This would make a valuable contribution to a ‘repurposing’ agenda that seeks to identify how agricultural budgets can be spent more effectively, as well as the scope for transferring resources to wider social priorities, such as public health and climate action.     

地方政府官员行为动机因素研究——基于Grey-AHP-DEMATEL算法的分析

经济学的个体主义为解释地方政府的整体行为提供了适切视角。文章在专家灰数评价和专家AHP确权的基础上,运用DEMATEL分析法,以作为地方政府代理人的政府官员为对象,对其个体特征、行为活动和所处制度环境进行解剖,进而厘清地方政府官员的行为动机。研究成果:从内部心理倾向、外部激励和外部约束三个维度构建了我国地方政府官员行为动机因素评价指标体系;对Grey-AHP-DEMATEL算法识别出的关键因素、原因因素和结果因素进行分析,认为要想更大程度发挥地方政府效能,必须遵循对地方政府官员"强动力—强激励—强保障—强约束"的基本路径。     

Population and industrial pressure on local environmental expenditure in the Italian regions

The objective of this paper is to test for the presence of pressure by industrial groups and population on the local environmental expenditure of Italian regions in the period between 2001 and 2014, and evaluate their effects. Blundell and Bond system estimators are used to estimate the econometric model. Results evidence the presence of population pressure on government environmental services supply, and a decrease in the demand for local environmental public services in higher-wages industries for the whole sample. In the Northern and Central regions both population and industrial pressure are present, and all the regressors have the expected effect on regional environmental expenditure. Policy-makers’ decision-making seems not to be driven either by population or by local industries in Southern Italy.