Will developing country debt forgiveness increase agricultural trade?

Latin American countries are important customers in international agricultural trade. However, between 1981 and 1987, U.S. agricultural exports to these countries declined by almost 50%. One explanation for the above decrease is the change in financial conditions facing many countries in this region. Outstanding debt in the Latin American countries continued to rise through the 1980's, reaching over $120 billion for Brazil and Mexico by 1987. In this paper, we develop an import model which considers the effect of the debt crisis on the ability of developing countries to purchase agricultural commodities in world markets. We estimate the model for four countries: Mexico, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela. The estimated results are used in a simulation model to obtain the effects of a 50% debt forgiveness scenario. Results indicate only a modest improvement in agricultural imports of the four Latin American countries considered in this study. These four countries would expand agricultural imports by $400 million per annum given the debt reduction.     

The Effects of NAFTA on Trade and Welfare in the U.S. Fresh Tomato Industry

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to measure NAFTA's impact to date and quantify how the producers and consumers of fresh tomatoes in the United States, Canada and Mexico have benefited or lost. Changes in consumer and producer surpluses were calculated in 2001 US dollars based on simulations of two scenarios. The analysis found that U.S. consumers captured $12.1 billion more surplus than they would have captured had NAFTA not been enacted. Mexican fresh tomato producers gained an additional $2.08 billion in surplus due to NAFTA. In contrast to Mexican growers, U.S. and Canadian producers appear not to have benefited economically from NAFTA. Findings suggest that U.S. producers would have earned $3.29 billion more if NAFTA had not gone into effect. Canadian producer surplus with NAFTA was estimated to be approximately $20 million less with NAFTA, and the total net benefit from NAFTA was found to be a positive $10.87 billion.     

企业负债经营风险控制之我见

在市场经济条件下 ,负债经营对企业进行正当经营活动有其客观必然性 ,保持一定的借入资本是企业调节资金余缺和增加所有者权益 ,扩大经营规模的前提。但过度负债经营会加大企业的财务风险。文章从负债规模、负债结构、资金成本三个方面论述了企业对负债经营风险进行控制的具体措施     

乐视债务危机的财务原因及启示

从资金链和股价等源头分析了乐视企业近年来债务危机的现状,并从利润水分、母公司净利润与少数股东存在损益关系、递延所得税资产与可抵扣亏损、固定资产和存货、成本结构、控股子公司亏损等财务因素分析了乐视企业债务危机的原因。在此基础上提出了加强报表真实性的要求和及时控制企业风险和调整企业发展战略的对策。     

International capital markets and open‐economy macroeconomics

Abstract

The standard open‐economy model on which the Bretton Woods macroeconomics is based takes into account neither the systemically fragmented nature of international capital markets nor the institutional relationship between savings and investment in semi‐industrial economies. This paper suggests that a more realistic approach to these structural features, possibly along the lines suggested by recent “new‐Keynesian” theories of market failure, would yield a model of macroeconomic behaviour which emphasizes investor uncertainty and vulnerability to external shock. The policy implications have interesting parallels with Keynes's own views on stabilization.     

Interest rates,saving and investment: Evidence from India

Abstract

The role of interest rates in the process of economic development is examined through an empirical inquiry into the interest rate‐saving‐investment nexus in the Indian economy during the period 1955–95. The results are generally in support of the financial liberalization school of thought. Higher real interest rates seem to promote both financial and total savings, and stimulate private investment. On the investment side, the combined salutary effect of interest rate increases operating through increased debt intermediation and self‐financed capital accumulation outweighs the direct cost effect on investment. Overall, the study casts doubt on the robustness of results coming from the vast cross‐country literature on the subject and calls for systematic time‐series analyses covering a variety of country situations to inform the on‐going policy debate.     

Financial Structure of Farm Businesses Under Imperfect Capital Markets

Recent finance studies have considered whether gaps between a firm's costs of internal and external sources of investment funds, arising from capital market imperfections, influence its investment behavior and funding preferences. This study tests the applicability of the pecking order and partial adjustment theories of financial structure to farm businesses by fitting a set of simultaneous financial equations with farm panel data from Illinois. Model results indicate that Illinois farms adjust to long-run financial targets for equity, debt, and leasing, but that additional financing needs follow a pecking order that is stronger for farms with greater asymmetric information problems.     

Trade Policy,Equipment Investment and Growth in India

The relationship between trade policy and economic performance is one of the oldest controversies in economic development. In this paper, we examine an alternative mechanism through which trade reforms may impact on economic growth to those commonly discussed in the literature. This mechanism builds on the link between equipment investment and growth that has been observed in cross-country data. We argue that that in countries which have had highly restrictive trade policies with respect to capital goods, liberalization measures that specifically target capital goods imports may bring about a fall in the relative price of capital goods, leading to an increase in the rate of investment in equipment. Quantifying the link between trade policy, equipment investment and economic growth in the Indian case, we find strong support for this mechanism.     

An Inquiry into the Financial Literacy and Cognitive Ability of Farmers: Evidence from Rural India

Poor understanding of financial products and an inability to process financial information prevent millions of rural households in the developing world from making informed financial decisions. This article assesses the financial literacy and cognitive ability of farmers using data from a unique field experiment in the Indian state of Gujarat. Using ordered response models, the effect of farmers' education on cognitive ability and financial literacy is estimated on the one hand, and the relationship between cognitive ability and financial literacy is analysed on the other. Farmers' education and financial experience are shown to be significantly correlated with achievements in customized tests for ability in mathematics and probability, which are taken as the two components of cognitive ability. Cognitive ability, in turn, predicts financial aptitude and debt literacy, the two components of financial literacy. By focusing on farmers in a developing country, the findings contribute to an improved understanding of financial literacy in such settings and can inform the design of inclusive financial systems that are sensitive to the cognitive and informational limitations of rural households.     

乡镇债务对乡镇财政支出结构的影响——基于债务用途的视角

本文按照债务用途的资金性质将乡镇债务分为生产性负债和非生产性负债两大类,并通过理论分析和实证分析探讨了两者对乡镇财政支出结构的影响。研究发现,第一,生产性负债对政府投资和政府消费有明显的正向影响,非生产性负债对政府消费有明显的正向影响,但对政府投资的影响则不一定;第二,无论人均数还是比例数,乡镇债务对政府消费的影响程度均大于对政府投资的影响程度,使得乡镇政府的财政支出结构向有利于政府消费的一方倾斜。这从一个侧面说明债务资金的使用和管理存在很大的漏洞,因此要彻底解决乡镇债务问题还必须着力提高财政资金的使用效率、完善乡镇财政的监督和管理制度。     

Economic impacts of adjacency and green-up constraints on timber production at a landscape scale

Although many different forest certification standards exist, harvest adjacency and green-up regulations are common to most certifying bodies. This study develops a means for evaluating trade-offs associated with implementation of nth-order adjacency and green-up constraints on a 1.7 million ha landscape in Oregon in the US. Depending on the type of adjacency structure and delay between harvests, the opportunity cost of the restrictions, estimated by the change in discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the regional log market, ranged from 0.25% to 66% (or US $60 million to $15.3 billion) of the unconstrained value. Increasing green-up delays beyond 30–40 years had little effect on estimated opportunity cost of the modeled restrictions.     

我国问题券商处置中债务处理方法分析与研究

由于长期缺乏有效的内部监控和外部监管机制,我国证券公司经营管理不规范和亏损严重所导致的金融风险逐渐显现。从目前问题券商债务产生的途径入手,对央行、财政部、证监会三部委处理问题券商的整体思路、政策措施进行分析,研究在解决过程中出现的问题,为实现证券行业的健康发展和资本市场的稳定提供参考。     

基于空间面板杜宾模型的农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系研究

长期以来,农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的关系受到国内外众多学者的关注。文章基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,考虑到空间溢出效应,将资本因素划分为农村金融发展的规模、效率和结构3个纬度,结合劳动力投入量,通过构建前沿的计量经济学空间面板Durbin模型,对我国30个省市2000~2009年农村金融发展与农村经济增长的关系进行了分析。结果表明,在样本期间,我国农村经济增长存在显著的空间集聚现象;农村金融规模、效率、结构与农村经济增长之间存在显著的相关关系,其中,农村金融规模和农村金融结构对农村经济存在反向作用,而农村金融效率对农村经济具有显著而正向的直接影响且存在正向空间溢出效应,成为影响农村经济增长的关键因素。农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的良好互动机制尚未建立。因此,各省市在加大农村金融投资规模的同时,要努力提高农村金融资源配置效率。     

Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?

It has frequently been assumed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays an important catalysing role in mobilizing international capital for developing countries and countries in transition. The Fund has conventionally been depicted as a "gatekeeper" that unlocks financial flows from other sources, particularly private international capital markets. However, more recently, international financial crises have highlighted the problem of capital volatility and have led to calls for reform of the international financial architecture and, as part of this, the IMF. Unfortunately, basic questions about the interaction between current institutional arrangements and international capital markets have yet to be answered. How do international capital markets react to the activities of the IMF? Do the reactions of private and public lenders differ? Have their reactions changed over time? Do market responses depend on country characteristics and on the type of IMF involvement and, if so, how? This paper addresses these questions and goes on to discuss the policy implications that arise.     

Social capital and soil conservation: evidence from the Philippines*

The formation of social capital is hypothesised to enhance collective efforts for soil conservation. The Landcare Program in the southern Philippines promotes simple conservation practices in upland environments by supporting community landcare groups and municipal landcare associations, thus augmenting social capital. A study was conducted in 2002–2003 to evaluate the Landcare Program, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative techniques. In the present paper, the relationship between social capital formation and adoption of soil conservation in the Municipality of Lantapan is investigated. It is concluded that the Landcare Program as a whole created a valuable stock of bridging social capital, rapidly accelerating the adoption of contour farming measures, but that on‐going support is needed to maintain this capital stock.     

Economic impacts of adjacency and green-up constraints on timber production at a landscape scale

Although many different forest certification standards exist, harvest adjacency and green-up regulations are common to most certifying bodies. This study develops a means for evaluating trade-offs associated with implementation of nth-order adjacency and green-up constraints on a 1.7 million ha landscape in Oregon in the US. Depending on the type of adjacency structure and delay between harvests, the opportunity cost of the restrictions, estimated by the change in discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the regional log market, ranged from 0.25% to 66% (or US $60 million to $15.3 billion) of the unconstrained value. Increasing green-up delays beyond 30–40 years had little effect on estimated opportunity cost of the modeled restrictions.     

International Tax Co-operation and Capital Mobility

The international mobility of capital and the geographical dispersion of firms have clear advantages for the growth and modernization of developing countries. They also create fundamental challenges for national tax authorities. Modern principles of capital taxation for the open developing economy indicate the need to find the correct balance between the encouragement of private investment and the finance of social infrastructure, both of which are necessary for sustainable growth. This balance can be sub-optimal where countries compete for inward investment by granting tax incentives or exercise conflicting principles in determining the tax base. The current practice of international taxation indicates that fiscal authorities in Latin America and the Caribbean could attain a more equitable share of capital tax revenue without depressing investment and growth. This might be achieved through more effective regional tax rules, double taxation treaties, information sharing and treatment of offshore financial centres along the lines already promoted for OECD members. These findings have wider implications for developing countries as a whole.     

“The tribe of pundits called economists” and economic debate in post‐independence India

Abstract

The rise of an economics profession in post‐Independence India is outlined, and something of the contribution of that profession to economic debate in India considered. The roots of the economics profession and of economic debate after 1947 are traced to the colonial era, and the institutions and the institution‐builders essential to its emergence after 1947 discussed. Five “generations” of Indian economists, active both before and after 1947, are identified. Attention is drawn to the high quality of debates on the Indian economy, the high level of theoretical discourse and the quality of political economy traditions. Particular attention is paid to the remarkable contribution of the Economic Weekly/Economic and Political Weekly, and there is treatment of the relationship between the academy, on the one hand, and the state and its representatives on the other.     

吉林省农民专业合作社的融资问题研究

农民专业合作社在国家政策支持下得到了快速发展,然而资金紧缺成为制约其发展的瓶颈。文章以吉林省农民专业合作社为例对其融资问题展开研究,针对吉林省农民专业合作社的发展现状,从资本构成、债务来源、融资困难程度等3个方面对融资现状进行分析,发现目前吉林省农民合作社债务融资比例较低,且民间融资成为其主要融资来源,多数合作社存在不同程度的融资困难。并选取影响农民专业合作社融资问题的合作社盈利能力、合作社抗风险能力、合作社管理机制、信用状况、涉农金融机构信贷倾向、涉农金融机构创新能力和政府政策等7个变量建立解释结构模型(ISM),最终得出信用状况和金融机构的创新能力是影响合作社融资的根本原因,合作社的盈利能力和涉农金融机构的信贷倾向是表层原因,合作社的抗风险能力、管理机制和政府政策则是通过底层信用状况和涉农金融机构的创新能力传导到表层。针对合作社融资难,该文从合作社、涉农金融机构、当地政府等方面,提出相应对策与建议。     

India as a Source of Outward Foreign Direct Investment

While India is an increasingly attractive destination for foreign capital, the country is also becoming a significant source of outflows. Many Indian enterprises view outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) as an important dimension of their corporate strategies. This paper presents some data on the magnitude and composition of Indian OFDI. It also discusses the rationale for and empirical determinants of overseas acquisitions by Indian companies. The empirical findings suggest that OFDI from India is not entirely different from that of other countries in that they are motivated by many common factors. There is evidence, however, that Indian OFDI is more market- and resource-seeking than OFDI from most other countries. The paper concludes with a broader discussion of the impact of the global rise of Indian companies on the Indian economy.