Innovation in Asian Industrialization: A Gerschenkronian Perspective

This paper interprets the experience of the East and South East Asian electronics industry from a "Gerschenkronian" perspective in order to draw lessons for other developing countries. Following Gerschenkron, the paper argues that it is diversity, rather than unifor mity, in the institutional, technological and development policy arenas (called here "strategic innovation") that characterizes the experience of the Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs). The experience of the leading export industry shows that the progress of the NIEs can be interpreted as a pattern of substitution of missing prerequisites, in line with Gerschenkron's view of European latecomer industrialization. More broadly, the progress of the NIEs should not be viewed as repetitions of earlier industrialization experiences as they involve significant deviations from the latter, usually entailing distinctive strategic innovations. This interpret ation presents a difficult challenge for those wishing to draw lessons from the Asian NIEs. There are few direct lessons from East and South East Asia for other countries and certainly no transferable or standardized "model" of development. Other paths and patterns of develop ment need to be identified and created that build upon the distinctive resources of individual developing countries. Strategic innovation, trial-and-error learning and variety are likely to continue to characterize successful industrial development in the future.     

Sources of Subsectoral Growth in South Africa

Abstract

Although South Africa's growth performance has improved somewhat in recent years, it has generally been poor over the last few decades. This article uses Chenery's factor decomposition method to analyse the sources of growth in South Africa from 1970 to 2007. Using input–output data, the growth of each subsector is decomposed into components associated with export growth, import substitution, growth in domestic demand and growth in intermediate demand. The results highlight a dependence on domestic demand expansion as a source of growth since 2000, especially for manufacturing. Subsectors that relied primarily on domestic demand expansion generally performed relatively poorly. Technological change is the only component of growth with a consistently positive and statistically significant correlation with subsectoral growth. The analysis contributes to a better understanding of growth in South Africa, particularly in terms of subsectoral dynamics.     

Mapping fragmentation: Electronics and automobiles in East Asia and Latin America

"Fragmentation", the relocation of processes or functions across countries in response to cost and other differences, has important implications for development. We discuss the drivers of fragmentation and map it for electronics and automotives in East Asia (EA) and Latin America. For technical reasons, electronics is fragmenting faster world-wide than the auto industry. Electronics networks are more advanced, widespread and integrated in EA than Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and are largely responsible for EA's rapid export growth. The auto network is more advanced in LAC but is slower growing and is not integrated into a regional system. Apart from Mexico, LAC lacks an electronics network, partly accounting for the region's weak export performance. We offer insights into the following: Why do industries fragment differently? How can fragmentation be measured? Why does fragmentation in developing countries concentrate on EA and LAC? Why has fragmentation evolved differently in these two regions? Can other developing regions attract and benefit from fragmentation?     

Rule by bosses? Criminal political economies in South Asia

Mafia Raj provides fascinating ethnographic insight into South Asia's criminal bosses. But is “Mafia Raj” reducible to rule by bosses? And what explains the criminalization of capitalism in South Asia? While the volume does not answer these questions, it illuminates the need for an agrarian political economy of criminal capital.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Dependent development in South America: China and the soybean nexus

This article examines the expansion of the soybean complex in South America and the role of Chinese firms in expanding their presence in different sectors of the oilseed complex. The growth in trade relations between the two parties has been built on the export of primary commodities from South America and the import of Chinese manufactures—a trade pattern that reproduces core‐periphery dynamics identified by dependency theory scholars. Of particular importance in this bilateral trade is soybean, a crop that has been consolidated as the main export for several South American countries, fuelled by growing demand from China. This article explores China's role in the global political economy as a key agri‐business player and the implications for new relations of dependency by studying the strategies deployed by Chinese firms to increase their influence in the governance of the soybean nexus.     

中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易空间关联与溢出效应——基于RCEP框架下的实证

目的 探讨中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的空间关联与溢出效应,揭示中国辛辣类蔬菜外销竞争力情况,促进我国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易发展,并为相关农产品贸易政策提供借鉴。方法 文章基于反距离平方的权重矩阵测度了各伙伴国经济空间关联程度,并以2011—2020年中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的贸易额为面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,分析中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间溢出效应。结果 中国GDP、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜总产量、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜单产和绿色贸易壁垒程度的空间溢出效应显著为负,且贸易距离整体上对RCEP伙伴国的出口贸易额呈现正向的促进作用,RCEP伙伴国GDP和中国辛辣类蔬菜总产量的空间溢出效应显著为正,中国辛辣类蔬菜单产对中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间影响不显著。结论 中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易存在空间负相关关系,即表现出一定的空间聚集现象,建议强化伙伴国空间关联度、优化产品出口结构和完善质量标准体s系。     

基于三元边际分析的中国柑橘出口增长研究

目的 柑橘产业是中国乡村产业振兴的重要组成部分,近年柑橘出口开始面临不利的贸易形势,系统分析中国柑橘出口增长特征及规律具有重要意义。方法 文章采用三元边际分析方法,基于2002—2017年中国柑橘出口近60个市场的数据,将出口增长因素分解为市场扩展效应、出口数量效应、出口价格效应,然后对出口增长特征进行研究。结果 研究发现,出口价格效应、出口数量效应是驱动中国柑橘出口增长的主要因素,而市场扩展效应不明显;比较而言,出口价格效应相对稳定,而出口数量效应波动较大;不同时间段首要驱动因素不同,2002—2009年出口数量效应是首要驱动因素,而2010—2017年出口价格效是首要驱动因素;中国柑橘出口价格持续上升并且已经高于全球出口平均价格,导致出口数量出现下降态势,出口额增长停滞。结论 深耕已有出口市场,积极开拓发达国家市场;丰富产品出口结构,弥补和降低出口价格上涨劣势。     

Successful Practices in California Wine Exporting

Abstract

California is one of the world's largest wine producers, yet it has exported only a small portion of its products. Many US wineries want to pursue opportunities in foreign markets but only a few are actually doing this successfully. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the successful practices of 12 California wineries that have achieved their financial targets and other export goals. A qualitative research design of in-depth interviews was employed. Results indicate that there are 5 major success factors, with the two most important being the foreign partner relationship and top management vision and commitment to exporting.     

Factors Influencing Consumers' Decision to Purchase Beef

Abstract

The South Korean beef import market was deregulated in 2000. As the beef import quotas were lifted in January 2001, increased market opportunities became available for exporters. Beef exporters are allowed to have direct communication with beef merchandisers in South Korea, which enable them to respond to Korean consumer demand more effectively. Korean consumers apparently have a negative perception on the quality of imported beef. However, little information is available to guide international beef exporters in the design of an export market development program. This study used a consumer mail survey in order to examine the Korean consumer beef market. While this study is exploratory by nature, it goes beyond traditional demand analysis, and it aims to provide comprehensive information on the important factors affecting Korean consumers' beef purchasing behavior. Marketing implications for beef exporters are drawn.     

基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

目的 文章基于动态的视角，测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化，对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。方法 基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据，测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数，对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述，并进行聚类分析。结果 （1）从出口动态整体情况看，农产品出口增长迅速，集约边际占据主导，贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看，在出口源地维度，东部省份出口优势明显，空间格局高度集中，近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度，东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地，集聚水平长期下降，原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时，中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似，绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀，东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。结论 为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长，既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长，也要积极扩展新贸易联系；为了优化农产品出口格局，要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新市场，进一步融入农产品出口进程；为了降低出口风险，要采取出口市场多元化战略，避免城市间农产品出口同质化竞争。     

The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985‐98

This paper maps out the recent manufactured export patterns of developing countries, using a new and detailed classification by technological levels. It argues that export structures, being path-dependent and difficult to change, have important implications for growth and development. Low-technology products (which have the least beneficial learning and spillover effects) tend to grow the slowest, and technology-intensive products (which have the most beneficial effects) the fastest in world trade. East Asia dominates the developing country scene, with 70% of total manufactured exports, and its role rises over time. There is also high and rising concentration at the national level. The technological specialization of different regions and the leading exporters differ greatly, as do the strategies used to achieve competitiveness. Received trade theory cannot explain these patterns without considering learning processes and the policies used to promote them.     

中国农产品贸易角色变迁：1949—2019

[目的]中国是农产品生产大国,同时也是农产品消费大国和贸易大国。1949—2019年中国农产品对外贸易历经70年的风雨,其在不同的历史阶段扮演着举足轻重的角色,通过回顾与总结农产品贸易发展历史,为未来中国农产品贸易发展提供经验借鉴。[方法]通过查阅历史文献,运用详实的历史统计数据进行分析。[结果]以重大历史事件为节点,将1949年以来农产品贸易发展史划分为3个阶段:即1949年至改革开放前夕、改革开放至入世前夕、入世至今。对应地,农产品贸易在中国经济发展中的主要角色被归纳为出口创汇、出口创汇与调剂余缺、优化资源配置与全面对外开放。文章着重探讨了各个阶段农产品贸易角色变迁的缘由、农产品贸易的特点。[结论]回顾70年农业贸易发展历史,中国农业贸易发展成就瞩目,发展历程艰辛曲折,中国现有农业贸易结构是发挥比较优势的产物,未来农业的发展以及农业贸易的开展,仍需遵循比较优势原理开展。     

论人民币汇率变动对中国采掘业的影响及对策

天人民币汇率不断攀升,对我国各进出口行业的国际贸易以及对外投资都有着很大的影响。以1981-2009年的人民币汇率动态变化为背景,从采掘业的进出口结构、对外投资以及资源价格改革三个角度,分析了人民币升值对我国采掘业的影响,并由此提出四点对策:(1)增加采掘业企业自主研发能力,大力提升采掘业出口结构;(2)积极进口初级必备矿产,建立起资源储备机制;(3)持续鼓励国内资源企业"走出去";(4)积极推动资源价格形成机制改革。     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

A comparative analysis of rice–wheat systems in Indian Haryana and Pakistan Punjab

Intensive irrigated rice–wheat production systems have converted the north-west Indo-Gangetic Plains into South Asia's cereal basket. Their strategic importance is undermined by a slowdown in productivity growth linked to the degradation of soil and water resources. Findings from farm surveys are used to examine contrasts and similarities between rice and wheat farms, cultivation practices, productivity, and profitability in the rice–wheat belt of India's Haryana State and Pakistan's Punjab province. In Haryana average wheat and paddy yields are markedly higher, but the yield advantage is offset by higher total production costs, resulting in lower private returns. The diverging institutional environment including varying levels of intervention in produce and input markets contributed to the evolution of the Pakistani production model as relatively ‘medium input–medium output’ and the Indian production model as ‘high input–high output’. The study reiterates the need to reinvigorate productivity growth and to reduce production costs in these intensive cereal production systems while conserving natural resources such as water and limiting negative environmental impacts. The study however also raises questions about the future of current rice–wheat systems.     

“一带一路”国家与中国农产品贸易与碳排放的关系实证分析

[目的]为了推进"一带一路"沿线区域内的农产品贸易,共创环境优化和贸易获益的共赢局面,文章基于1995—2014年"一带一路"沿线5个区域48个国家的面板数据,研究农产品贸易和碳排放之间的双边关系。[方法]首先,评估农产品贸易对碳排放的影响。其中,创新性地采用农产品贸易开放指数(TPI)测度沿线国家的农产品贸易开放程度;其次,构建纳入碳排放的指标体系,设立随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率项模型,实证检验碳排放对农产品贸易及其效率的影响。[结果]一方面,沿线国家的农产品贸易开放度越高,碳排放越高;另一方面,沿线国家的碳排放对其与中国的农产品进出口贸易存在显著的正向效应,且呈现出明显的区域差异。物流综合绩效的提升、是否加入WTO均有助于提升农产品贸易效率。[结论]中国应积极利用沿线国家的碳资源,扩大与沿线区域,尤其是南亚、东南亚和中亚(含俄蒙)的农产品进出口贸易,以及对西亚和中东地区的农产品出口贸易。     

金融危机下中国木质林产品出口市场布局优化研究

选取2003～2006年中国30个主要出口国(地区)的数据作为分析对象,基于引力模型实证研究结果表明:经济规模、人均收入水平和贸易制度安排对贸易有促进作用,距离是双边贸易的阻碍因素。通过出口市场的贸易潜力测算,提出金融危机下出口市场布局优化的建议。     

Benefits and costs of impeding free trade: Revisiting British Columbia's restrictions on log exports

The government of British Columbia (BC) imposes restrictions on the export of logs from public and private forestlands, primarily to promote local processing and associated employment benefits. Most economists wholeheartedly oppose BC's export restrictions, arguing that BC's citizens are worse off as a result of the government's measures. In this paper, it is shown that, while free trade in logs might well maximise global wellbeing, it might not necessarily result in the greatest benefit to BC. Indeed, both economic theory and a follow-up numerical analysis indicate that some restrictions on the export of logs can lead to higher welfare for BC than free trade. Thus, log export restrictions could be economically efficient from a local perspective, but only if the transaction costs of obtaining necessary permits are not excessive.     

When China strikes: Quantifying Australian companies' stock price responses to China's trade restrictions

In early 2020, China, Australia's top export market, unilaterally imposed trade restrictions on Australian barley, beef, coal, cotton, timber, copper and wine. However, convincing evidence regarding the effects of such trade restrictions on firms is scarce. Leveraging data on daily stock returns from 20 listed Australian and 32 listed Chinese firms that produce the restricted commodities, we provide the first systematic analysis of the firm-level economic impacts of China's trade restrictions on Australian and Chinese firms. We find significant adverse effects on Australian firms' stock returns, leading to almost 20% loss within 10 trading days; however, most firms' stock returns immediately rebounded. In contrast, Chinese firms usually saw significant positive stock returns, leading to almost 30% gains, and the positive abnormal returns continuously increased within 10 trading days. Media coverage and trade dependence substantially impact Australian and Chinese firms' stock returns—industries with stronger trade dependence on China saw greater losses in Australian firms' stock returns. Our results suggest that trade reallocation and deflection are two effective mitigation mechanisms for Australian exporters facing China's trade restrictions.