Trends in land ownership fragmentation during the last 230 years in Czechia,and a projection of future developments

A high level of fragmentation of farmland ownership is an important underlying cause of land degradation and, at the same time, an obstacle to sustainable land management. This study makes the first-ever analysis of long-term trends in the rate of fragmentation. Our study covers the period from the earliest stages of the current form of ownership patterns at the end of the 18th century until the present day. On the basis of significant predictors that have been identified (initial fragmentation, population growth, historical development of inheritance laws and of the land market, natural soil fertility and landscape type), we go on to project probable developments for the period from 2016 to 2045. A total of 102,984 land parcels in 56 cadastral units in the territory of Czechia have been analysed on the basis of data from four years (1785, 1840, 1950, 2015). Our study considers the development of two basic indicators of fragmentation – Mean Parcel Size and Number of Owners per 100 ha. The Mean Parcel Size has decreased over a period of 230 years from 1.08 ha to 0.64 ha, at a mean rate of −0.26% year⁻¹. During the same period, the Number of Owners per 100 ha has risen from 17.50 to 79.66, at a mean rate of 0.61% year⁻¹. A detailed analysis of the development trends confirms significant spatial variability and also time variability of the rates of the two indicators. The analysis also shows their mutual complementarity: growth in the rate of one of the indicators is usually accompanied by a drop in the other. The general trend that we project for the territory of Czechia in the upcoming 30 years is that there will be further diminution of the physical size of land parcels (continuing fragmentation of land parcels) accompanied by a reduction in the Number of Owners (defragmentation of land ownership).     

Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago Metropolitan Area, 2010–2045

Scenario analysis of urban dynamics from spatial land use models can support urban, planning and policy. An integrated modeling approach, linking assessment of urban spatial dynamics, was applied to the Santiago Metropolitan Area (SMA). The integrated land use change model combines, a logistic regression model, Markov chain, and cellular automata. This model was calibrated with data, from 1975 to 2010, and was used to make predictions for the years 2030 and 2045, using two datasets of, urban and non-urban explanatory variables. Urban change estimates showed the highest fit during the, model calibration phase. The true-positive proportion and standard Kappa value (κ) were of 99% and, 0.87 respectively when validating against an urban cover reference map from 2010. Urban growth was, equal to +27,000 ha (72%) for the period 1975–2010, and the city of Santiago is projected to, reach approximately 93,000 ha by 2045 (+43% from 2010). In the SMA the most important, urban growth pattern is peri-urban development, referring to widespread boundaries and higher, fragmentation in peripheral municipalities. Predictions for 2030 estimate that ∼15% of the projected, urban expansion will occur outside the boundary set by the current Regulatory Plan proposal. These, results demonstrate the capacity of the integrated model to establish comparisons with urban plans, and its utility to explain both the amount and constraints of urban growth. The integrated approach of, urban dynamic assessment using land use modeling is useful for spatiotemporal representation of, distinct urban development forms.     

Agriculture and land use: Demand for and supply of agricultural commodities,characteristics of the farming and food industries,and implications for land use in the UK

Agriculture is the largest type of land use in the UK, accounting for about 77 per cent of the total area, compared with an average 50 per cent for the EU27. But in common with most high-income countries, agriculture's contribution to UK GDP and employment is low, at about 0.5 and 1.8 per cent, respectively, although the regional importance of the sector (and its associated food and farming industries) varies considerably.Of the 17.5 million ha used for agriculture, about 28 per cent is allocated to crops, and 67 per cent is grassland. The grassland includes 4.4 million ha of sole-owned rough grazing and 1.1 million ha of common land in mainly upland “disadvantaged areas,” primarily used for beef and sheep production. This has a major influence on land use, especially in the northern and western parts of the UK.From the 1930s until the mid-1980s, UK policy promoted increases in agricultural productivity to feed the nation from its own resources. An array of income and production support measures encouraged intensive farming, including a relative switch to arable farming in eastern areas. Since the early-1990s, policies have sought simultaneously to make UK agriculture internationally competitive and environmentally benign. These policies, evident in the Agenda 2000 Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy, point the way forward for the future. It is likely that a greater distinction will emerge between policies to protect natural resources and enhance the flow of non-market ecosystem services from rural land, and agriculture and food policies intended to encourage an appropriate proportion of national food requirements to be met from domestic sources.It seems likely that over the next 50 years, the UK's land area will be required to deliver an increasingly diverse range of private and public goods to meet growing human needs and aspirations. This will require a balance of policy-driven goals and market forces. It will also need a much improved understanding of the trade-offs between food production and environmental goals and of the institutional arrangements required to achieve a balance of economic, social and environmental outcomes.     

Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil

In this paper we analyze the indirect land use change (ILUC) effects of ethanol production expansion in Brazil through the use of an inter-regional, bottom-up, dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated with the 2005 Brazilian I-O table. A new methodology to deal with ILUC effects is developed, using a transition matrix of land uses calibrated with Agricultural Censuses data. Agriculture and land use are modeled separately in each of 15 Brazilian regions with different agricultural mix. This regional detail captures a good deal of the differences in soil, climate and history that cause particular land to be used for particular purposes.Brazilian land area data distinguish three broad types of agricultural land use, Crop, Pasture, and Plantation Forestry. Between one year and the next the model allows land to move between those categories, or for unused land to convert to one of these three, driven initially by the transition matrix, changing land supply for agriculture between years. The transition matrix shows Markov probabilities that a particular hectare of land used in one year for some use would be in another use next period. These probabilities are modified endogenously in the model according to the average unit rentals of each land type in each region.We ask whether biofuel expansion is consistent with new laws, limiting forest clearing in Brazil. A simulation with ethanol expansion scenario is performed for year 2020, in which land supply is allowed to increase only in states located on the agricultural frontier. Results suggest that each new hectare of sugar cane requires only 0.14 ha of new land, with another 0.47 ha converted from pasture use. Hence policies limiting deforestation are unlikely to prevent greater ethanol production. Finally, regional differences in sugarcane productivity are found to be important elements in ILUC effects of sugar cane expansion.     

Changes of urbanised landscape identified and assessed by the Urban Atlas data: Case study of Prague and Bratislava

Identification, analysis and assessment of changes in the urbanised landscape, one of the most conspicuous transforming parts of earth surfaces, has become the topic of numerous research projects. However, there is still a lack of compatible data suitable for the generation of topical information about the urbanised landscape and its changes at different scales. An important contribution in this sense is the Urban Atlas (UA) Project pursued under the GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security)/Copernicus Land (GIO land) Programme auspiced by the European Commission. The aim of this study is to document, examine and compare land use/cover change (LUCC) of the LUZs (Large Urban Zones) of Bratislava and Prague in 2006–2012 by means of the UA data and show how these changes are captured in official statistical data. Results confirmed the present trends in modern industrial cities dominating by transforming the agricultural land into residential and industrial areas. Dispersion of the urban fabric into locations previously used for agriculture was mostly widespread in LUZ Prague (1,718 ha). This trend has also been partially confirmed by the change of agricultural land in favour of construction sites, the most pronounced one in LUZ Bratislava (580 ha). Assessment and comparisons of LUCC changes of LUZs Bratislava and Prague proved that combining the UA data and official statistical data has a great potential for insight into the dynamics of the urbanised landscape of Europe.     

Incoherence of urban planning policy in Bucharest: Its potential for land use conflict

Bucharest is a city in transition from its communist past to a market economy, but poor urban planning in is impacting adversely on contested spaces. Lack of effective and strictly enforced regulation and public sector indecision, mixed with problems inherited from the Ceausescu regime, generate many examples of poor urban planning and management. One such example concerns the uncertain future of Văcăreşti “Lake”, our in-depth case study, which is an encapsulated 184 ha wetland whose management has been particularly poor. Employing a mixed methodology of mapping the evolution of the area in question and conducting interviews with surrounding residents and experts in the urban planning or public administration, we demonstrate how lack of an effective planning system and appropriate policies serves to exacerbate conflict between interested parties. Initially there was a conflict between former land owners and authorities, after which developers, surrounding populations, urban planners and ecologists were added. Worse still, the juridical owners of the site are unresolved! Many government agencies and the Bucharest municipality have also compounded the problem by failing to take a lead in future planning and conflict resolution by adopting a passive management approach, which is a recipe for inaction in a poorly regulated land market. Thus, incoherent land use policy has greatly amplified individual and professional conflict both at the local level and city-wide.     

Abandoned agricultural land and its potential for short rotation woody crops in Latvia

Abandoned agricultural land in Latvia offers high potential for renewable energy production, especially for short rotation woody crops (SRWC). The objective of this study is to understand the main reasons why agricultural lands remain abandoned, and whether these reasons could pose any obstacles to the establishment of SRWC. The study was carried out in the Latgale planning region, with estimated 75,530 ha of abandoned agricultural land suitable for SRWC. Qualitative methods of data collection and analysis were used to study the phenomenon. The results show that the primary reason for agricultural land abandonment is the absentee landowners who do not reside in the municipality (e.g., heirs, urban dwellers, intermediaries, and/or investors). Other reasons are: (1) perception of a greater future value from other types of land use; (2) environmental and biophysical characteristics of the land; (3) policy obstacles; (4) social behavior; and, (5) financial and economic constraints. The study also reveals that the establishment of SRWC on abandoned agricultural lands will depend on policies guiding land acquisition and agricultural land use, as well as social and economic policies that encourage small holder production, especially in Latgale.     

Agricultural land use change in Karamoja Region,Uganda

We examine dramatic cropland expansion in Karamoja, Uganda by investigating the links between biophysical and political historical events leading to the current state of agricultural land use. Our objective was to quantify agricultural expansion, uncover the dominant drivers leading to the current state of agricultural land use and its impacts on livelihoods. Region wide analysis of remotely sensed data, land use policy and history as well as farmer interviews were undertaken. We posit that government programs instituting sedentary agriculture are the most significant drivers of cropland expansion in Karamoja. We show a 299% increase in cropland area between 2000 and 2011 with most expansion occurring in Moroto District (from 706 ha to 23,328 ha). We found no evidence of an increase in overall crop production or food security and food aid continues to be essential due to recurrent crop failures. Due to lack of resources for inputs (e.g., seeds and labor) cultivated fields remain very small in size and over 55% of once cultivated land is left fallow. Our findings bring into question whether continued promotion of rain-fed agriculture in Karamoja serves the best interests of the people. Current cropland expansion is directly competing and compromising pasture areas critical for livestock-based livelihoods. Without strong agricultural extension programs and major investments in climate-smart options, cropland expansion will continue to have a net negative impact, especially in the context of current climate projections which indicate a future decrease in rainfall, increase in temperature and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events.     

The drivers of sugarcane expansion in Goiás,Brazil

Between 2003 and 2013, sugarcane area expanded six-fold, from 142,000 ha to 847,000 ha, in Goiás State and the Federal District, Brazil. And while there has been much research on land-use dynamics of sugarcane expansion in established sugarcane growing regions, little is known about the dynamics associated with its expansion in sugarcane frontiers like Goiás. Understanding these dynamics provides critical information for environmental, economic, and political decisions. Here, we investigate the agricultural land-use change dynamics associated with sugarcane production in Goiás and interrogate the relationship between biophysical, institutional, and logistical factors associated with sugarcane expansion. Our results demonstrate that pasture is seven times more likely to be converted to sugarcane than soy, and most new sugarcane area was not sourced in native Cerrado vegetation. Although there exist few biophysical limitations to sugarcane expansion, capital, infrastructure, and institutions constrain production. Lastly, we show that areas where soy is currently cultivated may be converted to sugarcane in the future given the expansion of transportation and sugarcane infrastructure. Thus, we suggest incentivizing the cultivation of sugarcane on degraded pastures and supporting increased pasture stocking rates to ensure continued protection of both natural vegetation and food production while supporting the expansion of sugarcane in the state.     

A comprehensive framework on land-water resources development in Mu Us Sandy Land

Land and water resources are two basic factors for sustaining the development of agriculture. The two are scare resources with rapid social economic development gradually, especially in Mu Us Sandy Land (MUSL) with severe desertification. Arsenic sandstone is a special rock type of MUSL with strong water holding capacity, which appropriately makes up the shortage of sand on water and fertilizer losing. Based on it, a comprehensive framework on land-water resources development was proposed including engineering treatment measures, appropriate irrigation management and farming measures after a series of experiments designed for sandy land treated with arsenic sandstone. Results of the experiments showed that both water content and fertility increased after using a 1:2 arsenic sandstone/sand ratio by mixing both together. An area of 151.3 ha arable land was newly-increased by applying the framework in Dajihan village sandy land of the MUSL, which created direct economic efficiency of 14.1 million Yuan RMB by tomato planting, and obtained 61% of water saving effect compare to untreated sand. The application of the framework in Dajihan village also got huge social-ecological efficiency such as on soil and water conservation, sand-fixing and forming high quality farmland. The framework helped to completed the process from soil synthesize to agricultural production, then to real soil, which transformed the traditional sandy land treatment to sandy land development, and was proved to be practicable and sustainable in local sandy agriculture.     

A legal framework with scientific basis for applying the ‘polluter pays principle’ to soil conservation in rural watersheds in Brazil

The “polluter pays principle” (PPP) has been looked at from the perspective of legal values and technical principles, namely of soil science, to evaluate the acceleration of soil erosion and the consequent development of degraded areas in the Uberaba River basin (area: 2419 km²), state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Having accomplished this goal, the study highlights the importance of PPP for the conservation of soil and development of an ecologically equilibrated environment. The diagnosis of degraded areas was based on the coupling of a Geographic Information System with soil loss, land use conflict and tolerance to soil loss models, and revealed a preoccupying situation because an extension of approximately 905 km² (1/3 of the basin) has been considered in advanced state of degradation potentially causing environmental damage (e.g., decline of soil fertility and hence crop production, negative impacts of soil particles export on stream and lake water quality and biodiversity of riverine ecosystems). Facing this problem, a legal framework standing on doctrinaire principles, federal laws and the Brazilian Constitution has been proposed whereby the protagonists of soil degradation are called to assume responsibility as well as the costs of repairing this negative condition. Although the study has been carried out on a specific country under pre-defined settings, the rationale behind the proposals can easily be transposed to other scenarios because the scientific methods on which soil degradation has been defined and mapped are generally applicable, while the suggested legal values are currently applied to many regions on the planet.     

Evaluating the conformity of informal land subdivision with the planning law in Benin metropolis

Town planning law is a regulatory framework for guiding the spatial growth of cities. As a land subdivision regulation, it embraces all development parameters in urban areas. But locally adopted land subdivision standards appear incompatible with the existing Planning Law. Evaluating the conformity of informal land subdivision standards for residential and non-residential uses with those of the existing Planning Law, land subdivision attributes were collected from four neighbourhoods and compared with the minimum approved standards. Independent-sample t-test statistics for each of the selected neighbourhoods shows no significant difference in their Mean Scores. The significant values (two-tailed) in the t-test output tables of the selected communities were consistently above the required cut-off of α = 0.05 which suggest that informal land subdivision attributes statistically conform with those of the Planning Law. Key planning implications of unplanned land use patterns that have emerged and policy options to tackle them were suggested.     

An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis

In this study, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained land-use allocation (IFCC-LUA) model is developed for sustainable urban land-use planning management and land use policy analysis under uncertainty. This method is based on an integration of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy flexible linear programming (FFLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) techniques. Complexities in land-use planning management system can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method is applied to planning land-use allocation practice in Nanjing city, China. The objective of the IFCC-LUA is maximizing net benefit from LUA system and the main constraints include investment constraints, land suitability constraints, water/power consumption constraints and wastewater/solid waste capacity constraints. Modeling results indicate that desired system benefit will be between [1.34, 1.74] × 10¹² yuan under the minimum violating probabilities; the optimized areas of commercial land, industrial land, agricultural land, transportation land, residential land, water land, green land, landfill land and unused land will be [290, 393] hm², [176, 238] hm², [3245, 4390] hm², [126, 170] hm², [49, 66] hm², [1241, 1679] hm², [102, 138] hm², [7, 10] hm² and [178, 241] hm². They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired land use policies under various system-reliability constraints of economic development requirement and environmental capacity of pollutant. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint violation risks can also be tackled.     

Changes of livelihood due to land use shifts: A case study of Yanchang County in the Loess Plateau of China

Studies of land use policies are commonly based on the environmental impacts or on people's direct responses to the policies. However, research on the impact of policy implementation on people's livelihood and activities and the subsequent economic development of an area is incomplete. We selected Yanchang County as an example to track land use changes and their effects on the livelihood of the local population following the implementation of a new land use policy known as the Grain for Green Project (GGP). The data were collected from statistical yearbooks, questionnaire surveys, and satellite imagery from 1990, 2000, and 2008. We found that dramatic land use changes have occurred in Yanchang County. The vegetation coverage improved significantly from 1990 to 2008, as the grassland and forest areas increased from 44.1% to 60.1% and from 17.7% to 18.4% of the total land area, respectively. The cultivated land declined from 37.3% to 20.7%. With the agricultural area and grain production decreasing from 64 × 10³ tons to slightly over 20 × 10³ tons per year, an increasing number of local people sought employment in towns and cities. The non-farm income increased, and the local income structure shifted. Migrant and orchard worker income contributed the most to the balance of the total household income. We narrowed our focus to discuss how the GGP accelerated the changes in the participants’ lifestyles and what might be done to sustain the long-term effects of the GGP. While the GGP has brought about considerable environmental benefits, a comprehensive study of environmental–social systems is still needed to achieve a more efficient land use policy. The research results presented in this paper demonstrate that changes in land use and people's activities were triggered by policy changes. We aim to pave the way for studies on the “policy-land-use-social development” chain and to provide references for new policies.     

A historical analysis of the drivers of loss and degradation of Indonesia’s mangroves

Mangroves have been systematically exploited in Indonesia since 1800, especially for the development of brackish water shrimp aquaculture (called ‘tambak’) and for timber harvesting. By the end of the 1960s, Indonesia is estimated to have lost more than 200,000 ha of its mangroves mostly in Java and Sumatra. The rate of mangrove loss started to dramatically increase in the 1970 when exploitation shifted to new areas outside Java, particularly in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, encouraged by government policies to boost timber production, followed by policies to expand tambak in 1980s and large scale tambak development triggered by increased shrimp price during Asian financial crisis in 1997. The result has been the loss of nearly 800,000 ha of mangroves in only 30 years, mostly now in the form of low productivity or abandoned tambaks. In recent years, timber harvesting activities in Indonesia's mangroves appear to have become more sustainable. Our analysis suggests that aquaculture will continue as the main driver of change in mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia followed by palm oil plantation. Failure to deal with the current low productivity of shrimp aquaculture in many parts of Indonesia will force shrimp producers to clear an estimated 600,000 ha more mangroves to make way for shrimp farms over the next two decades. However, with improvements in brackish water aquaculture productivity, halting palm oil concession to utilise mangroves, along with maintaining other mangrove use pressures at moderate levels, the net loss of mangroves in the next two decades could be reduced to around 23,000 ha.     

The land footprint of the EU bioeconomy: Monitoring tools,gaps and needs

The bioeconomy is gaining growing attention as a perceived win-win strategy for environment and economy in the EU. However, the EU already has a disproportionately high global cropland footprint compared to the world average, and uses more cropland than domestically available to supply its demand for agricultural products. There is a risk that uncontrolled growth of the bioeconomy will increase land use pressures abroad. For that reason, a monitoring system is needed to account for the global land use of European consumption. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the tools needed to monitor global cropland footprints, as well as the targets needed to benchmark development. This paper reviews recent developments in land footprint accounting approaches and applies the method of global land use accounting to calculate the global cropland footprint of the EU-27 for the years between 2000 and 2011. It finds a slight decrease in per capita cropland footprints over the past decade (of around 1% annually, reaching 0.29 ha/cap in 2011) and advocates promoting a further decrease in per capita cropland requirements (of around 2% annually) to reach global land use targets for keeping consumption within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries by 2030. It argues that strategic land reduction targets may still go hand in hand with the growth of a smart, innovative and sustainable bioeconomy by reinforcing the need for policies that support greater efficiency across the life-cycle and reduce wasteful and excessive consumption practices. Recommendations for further improving land footprint accounting are given.     

Interventions to better manage the carbon stocks in Australian Melaleuca forests

Forests and woodlands dominated by tree species of the genus Melaleuca cover around 7,556,000 ha in Australia and predominantly occur as wetland ecosystems. In this Viewpoint, we use published secondary data to estimate that there is likely to be between 158 tC/ha and 286 tC/ha stored in Melaleuca forests. These estimates are at least five times greater than the previous estimate made by the Australian Government (about 27.8 tC/ha). There are 2.1 million ha of protected Melaleuca forest which likely stock between 328 M tC and 601 M tC; equivalent to between 2.7% and 5.0% of total carbon storage of all Australian native forests. These estimates are significant because it appears that carbon stocks in Melaleuca forests are currently dramatically under-estimated in Australia's national greenhouse gas emissions inventory reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Whilst the precision of the estimates is limited by the availability of rigorous primary data, we also argue that the estimates are indicative and meaningful, and this synopsis highlights the fact that this forest type should be considered a significant carbon store nationally and globally.     

Sustainable crop intensification through surface water irrigation in Bangladesh? A geospatial assessment of landscape-scale production potential

Changing dietary preferences and population growth in South Asia have resulted in increasing demand for wheat and maize, along side high and sustained demand for rice. In the highly productive northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia, farmers utilize groundwater irrigation to assure that at least two of these crops are sequenced on the same field within the same year. Such double cropping has had a significant and positive influence on regional agricultural productivity. But in the risk-prone and food insecure lower Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP), cropping is less intensive. During the dryer winter months, arable land is frequently fallowed or devoted to lower yielding rainfed legumes. Seeing opportunity to boost cereals production, particularly for rice, donors and land use policy makers have consequently reprioritized agricultural development investments in this impoverished region. Tapping groundwater for irrigation and intensified double cropping, however, is unlikely to be economically viable or environmentally sound in the EIGP. Constraints include saline shallow water tables and the prohibitively high installation and energetic extraction costs from deeper freshwater aquifers. The network of largely underutilized rivers and natural canals in the EIGP could conversely be tapped to provide less energetically and economically costly surface water irrigation (SWI). This approach is now championed by the Government of Bangladesh, which has requested USD 500 million from donors to implement land and water use policies to facilitate SWI and double cropping. Precise geospatial assessment of where freshwater flows are most prominent, or where viable fallow or low production intensity cropland is most common, however remains lacking. In response, we used remotely sensed data to identify agricultural land, detect the temporal availability of freshwater in rivers and canals, and assess crop production intensity over a three-year study period in a 33,750 km² case study area in southwestern Bangladesh. We combined these data with georeferenced and temporally explicitly soil and water salinity information, in addition to relative elevation classifications, in order to examine the extent of winter fallows and low productivity rainfed cropland that could be irrigated by small-scale surface water pumps. Applying observations of irrigated crop sowing dates and yields from 510 wheat, 550 maize, and 553 rice farmers, we also modeled crop intensification production scenarios within the case study area. We conservatively estimate that at least 20,800 and 103,000 ha of fallow and rainfed cropland, respectively, could be brought into intensified double cropping using SWI. Scenario analysis indicates that if 25%–75% of the fallow or low-intensity land were converted to irrigated maize, national aggregate production could increase by 10–14% or 29–42%, respectively. Conversion to wheat would conversely boost national production by 9–10% or 26–31%. Irrigated rice is however unlikely to contribute >3%. In aggregate, these actions could generate between USD 36–108 million of revenue annually among farmers. Intensification therefore has important land use policy and food and income security implications, helping to rationalizei SWI investments. Crop choice, water resource allocation, and water governance will however remain crucial considerations for irrigation planners.     

Landowners’ willingness to promote bioenergy production on wasteland − future impact on land use of cutaway peatlands

Landowners are the key players in bioenergy production on wasteland; such as cutaway peatlands. In this study, the landowner’s interest to use cutaway peatlands for bioenergy production was investigated using a survey and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) methods in an area in South Ostrobothnia, Finland. The focus was to identify which different bioenergy production chains are preferred by the respondents: combustion, gasification or biogas production from agriculture, energy-willow short-rotation forestry or forestry based energy crops. Also, the influence of personal environmental values on the selection was measured and the future impacts and barriers for the land use were assessed.Afforestation was the most popular after-use method among the landowners. The next most favorable method was energy crop cultivation but it was highly dependent on economic profitability and subsidies. Currently, approximately 8.2% or 500 ha of the total peat extraction area could be used for bioenergy production in the region by 2035. Based on the survey, forest based biomass is the best option if bioenergy is to be produced. The next choice was agro biomass and the least favored plant was willow. This study suggests that the biggest cutaway peatlands will be converted to forest energy in the future. Suggestive results were that the owners with high environmental values are especially interested in agro biomass growing and the landowner having a distant home place does not have a negative influence on bioenergy production. Altogether, land use and biomass production of cutaway peatlands is connected with the demands of the Finnish bio-economy.     

Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques

As a result of the socioeconomic transformation, the rapid urban expansion of cities and towns in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has predominately led to tremendous pressure on the limited natural resources and loss of productive lands. Indeed, the spatial patterns of urbanisation and their impacts on mountain resources and environment have received little attention, particularly in Oman. Predicting urban growth in the mountainous cities has the potential to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth patterns and the mountain topography. This study aims to analyse spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) (2008–2018) and simulate urban expansion (2008–2038) in Nizwa city, Al Dakhliyah governorate, Oman. Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov and geospatial techniques were utilised to assess and project urban growth and land cover changes. The analysis was based on three maps of LULC at equal intervals derived from satellite imageries: Landsat TM for 1998, 2008 and 2018, along with topographic spatial layers (elevation, aspects, and terrain slopes) derived from the ASTER digital elevation model. In addition, other spatial parameters (population density, proximity to urban centres, and proximity to major roads,) were incorporated in the simulation process. The findings revealed that the actual LULC change during 2008–2018 was 12,014 ha of net urban growth (418.5 % change), while the simulated change was expected to be 14,985 ha by 2028, with a total of 37,465 ha increase in the built-up area and urban growth by 2038. Although the topographic variability will control LULC changes, the urban expansion overly will occupy the arable land across the valleys along with the flat areas. During the next two decades, the built-up areas will dominant, with a large percentage of vacant land (net loss 12,813 ha) and vegetation cover (net loss 35 ha) will be gradually converted into residential land use. The output of the simulations in this research could serve not only as spatial guidelines for monitoring future trends of LULC dynamics, but also address the threats and deteriorates of urban sustainability in the Omani mountainous cities. Furthermore, identifying bare soils and vegetation areas that are susceptible to urbanisation is of value for the national strategy of future urban planning in Oman.