Adoption of Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties under Rainfall Stress in Malawi

We examine adoption of drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties using a four‐round panel dataset from six districts in Malawi. There is an increase in adoption of DT maize from 3% in 2006 to 43% in 2015 in our data. We focus on the effect of past drought exposure on adoption and the likelihood of DT maize being distributed under the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). Results show that past exposure to drought increases the probability of DT maize seed being distributed through FISP. Farmers who accessed maize seed subsidy coupons and were previously exposed to late season dry spells are more likely to use the seed subsidy coupon to redeem DT maize seed. The likelihood of adoption and adoption intensity (area under DT maize) are positively influenced by previous early season dry spells and access to seed subsidy. Previous late season droughts also positively affect adoption intensity. On the other hand, area share under DT maize is positively correlated with early season dry spells and past exposure to late season dry spells but negatively related to seed subsidy. FISP in Malawi appears to have stimulated adoption of DT maize directly through subsidy and indirectly through generating farmers’ experiences of the performance of DT varieties under drought conditions.     

Optimising seed portfolios to cope ex ante with risks from bad weather: evidence from a recent maize farmer survey in China

Using 4‐year panel data collected from surveying 640 farmers from leading maize producing provinces in China, this study analyses how maize farmers cope with anticipated risks from bad weather by strategically adjusting variety portfolios, with particular interest in farmers' strategies in choosing and combining new and old varieties. While diversification was commonly demonstrated to be an effective means to reduce risk in most previous studies, our empirical results indicate that, in facing anticipated risks from bad weather, Chinese maize farmers tend to use fewer new varieties and allocate more land to old varieties. The lack of knowledge about weather tolerance of new varieties might be the major reason for this practice. As new varieties often have higher yield potential relative to old varieties due to technological progress, this finding suggests that Chinese maize farmers might be trading yield potential against risk reduction from bad weather. Furthermore, this study shows that maize farmers' variety adoption is significantly related to farmers' land conditions as well as their access to credit markets and technique extensions, suggesting that a well‐designed policy intervention could offset or partially offset the anticipation of adverse weather impacts on farmers' variety choices and therefore on maize production.     

Information Barriers to Adoption of Agricultural Technologies: Willingness to Pay for Certified Seed of an Open Pollinated Maize Variety in Northern Uganda

We examine smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay for agricultural technology and whether information is a constraint to adoption of certified maize seed in Northern Uganda. The uptake of improved maize varieties by smallholder farmers in Uganda remains persistently low, despite the higher yield potential compared to traditional varieties. A recently growing body of literature identifies information constraints as a potential barrier to adoption of agricultural technologies. We used incentive compatible Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak auctions to elicit willingness to pay for quality assured improved maize seed by 1,009 smallholder farmers, and conducted a randomised evaluation to test the effect of an information intervention on farmers’ knowledge of seed certification. Our results show that the randomised information treatment enhanced farmers’ knowledge of certified seed. However, using the information treatment as an instrumental variable for knowledge, we find no evidence of a causal effect of knowledge on willingness to pay, suggesting that even though farmers are information constrained, this constraint does not affect adoption of certified seed directly. Nevertheless, only 14% of sampled farmers were willing to pay the market price, which corresponds closely with actual observed demand for certified seed in the previous season. This suggests that there are other barriers to adoption than information and awareness.     

Ex Ante Evaluation of Drought‐Tolerant Varieties in Eastern and Central Africa

This study presents a model to estimate potential benefits of drought‐tolerant varieties of maize, sorghum and millet in Kenya, Uganda and the Amhara region of Ethiopia. In addition to the benefits from mean yield increases, the model takes into account risk benefits associated with yield‐stabilising varieties. Ex ante estimates provided for different drought zones and for different household types within drought zones of each country suggest that drought resistance generates substantial benefits from both mean yield improvements and yield variance reductions for both consumers and small, medium and large producers.     

Breeding for Africa's new smallholder maize paradigm

This paper describes the evolution of a newly emerging smallholder maize paradigm in southern Africa beginning in 1996. This new paradigm involves the breeding, extension, and adoption of a new generation of open-pollinated ‘flinty’ maize varieties that specifically address the needs of southern African smallholder farmers for seed varieties that can be replanted (recycled) and that resist drought and low fertility problems increasingly common in southern Africa. The described mechanism is the extension and breeding work of the Southern Africa Drought and Low Fertility programme (SADLF) of the Centro Internationale por la Mejoridad de Maize y Trigo (CIMMYT). This paper explains the devolution of southern African maize production in the past two decades from centralized large-scale producers to smallholder farms, signalling a shift in research and plant breeding needs. The research/extension approach described here had profound consequences beyond the technical benefits of screening maize varieties for tolerance to stress; it empowered small-scale farmers to become informed consumers of agricultural technology. The transformation of the smallholder from a passive consumer to one actively seeking the best opportunity and seed to produce food, create economic opportunities and address local social conditions is an important development in the history and sustainability of maize production in southern Africa, and one consistent with modern African history of economic liberalization in the global food economy.     

Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability,and how effective are policy interventions? Agent‐based simulation results for Ethiopia

Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub‐Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent‐based simulation package Mathematical Programming‐based Multi‐Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers.     

Modern variety adoption and risk management in drought prone areas: insights from the sorghum farmers of eastern Ethiopia

Adoption rates of improved or modern varieties (MV) of sorghum in eastern Ethiopia are generally low. Although these MV may represent an effective means of coping with droughts, given their early maturing traits, landraces could prove to be more drought‐tolerant and better adapted to marginal production conditions. Whether MV adoption is a risk reducing technology is very much an empirical question which this article investigates using a unique dataset from eastern Ethiopia in a year of extreme weather conditions. Results show that risk‐factors coupled with access to markets and social capital drive farmers’ decisions to adopt MVs. On the one hand, it appears that farmers use MVs to mitigate moderate risks. On the other hand, farmers who have been most vulnerable to extreme weather events are less likely to use MVs suggesting that MV adoption does not necessarily represent an effective means of coping with drought. Finally, findings show that MV growers are more likely to be affected by sorghum failure once controlling for exogenous production factors.     

Smallholder Supply Response to Marketing Board Activities in a Dual Channel Marketing System: The Case of Zambia

In recent years, parastatal grain marketing boards have re‐emerged as important elements of grain markets in eastern and southern Africa, yet little is known about how farmers are responding to their scaled up activities. This article develops a conceptual model of farmers’ production decisions in the context of dual output marketing channels (government and private sector) when output prices at harvest time and the availability of one of the marketing channels are unknown at planting time. It then applies the model to the case of Zambia and uses nationally representative household‐level panel survey data to estimate the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), the government parastatal maize marketing board, on smallholder crop production and fallow land. The FRA buys maize from smallholders at a pan‐territorial price that typically exceeds market prices in major maize producing areas. Results suggest that increases in the farmgate FRA maize price raise farmer maize price expectations, which induces a supply response. Smallholders respond to an increase in the FRA price by extensifying their maize production. On average, a 1% increase in the FRA price is associated with 0.06% increases in smallholders’ maize area planted and quantity harvested. There is also some evidence that farmers reduce the area of land under fallow in response to FRA incentives but there is no evidence of reductions in the area planted to other crops.     

Targeting,bias, and expected impact of complex innovations on developing‐country agriculture: evidence from Malawi

Agronomic analyses of new technologies are often conducted under carefully controlled research station programs or trials managed by self‐selected farmers. Oftentimes, the technologies are then scaled up with minimal evaluation under real‐world conditions. Yet, the interim step between agronomic trials and large‐scale promotion is crucial to generate evidence on the social and economic impact of technologies that is both internally valid and generalizable. The article focuses on a participatory action research program in Malawi designed to test and identify scalable technology options to intensify the smallholder sector and contribute to poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. We examine the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers testing technologies and find evidence of systematic targeting of better‐endowed farmers. After controlling for observable differences using matching and a doubly robust estimator, we find evidence of early positive effects on maize yield and harvest value, although placebo tests suggest possible selection on unobservables. We note that attention should be given to program design and household characterization to better define and improve targeting criteria, technology selection, and external validity.     

Yield and income effects of rice varieties with tolerance of multiple abiotic stresses: the case of green super rice (GSR) and flooding in the Philippines

With the increasing frequency of extreme climatic events, the new challenge is to develop rice varieties that are tolerant of drought, water submergence, and salinity. There are now new high‐yielding green super rice (GSR) cultivars developed at the International Rice Research Institute with increased tolerance to multiple abiotic stresses. But a clear understanding of the economic benefits of these varieties under farmers’ production environments is not yet fully understood. In this article, we assess the yield and income effects of GSR rice varieties using a two‐year panel data from one province. We use matched samples from a propensity score matching method and a fixed‐effects model within a difference‐in‐difference (DID) framework to estimate the yield effects. The income effects were evaluated using the parameter estimates from the yield/production function model. The results of the ordinary least squares and DID fixed‐effects regressions reveal significant and positive effects of GSR varieties on yield. The most important finding is that the benefits from these varieties are strongly felt when there is flooding. This evidence was not as robust when matched samples were used. However, it is clear that the yield benefits from GSR varieties could improve rice food security and help alleviate poverty in the country.     

Pesticide Productivity and Transgenic Cotton Technology: The South African Smallholder Case

This paper empirically investigates how the productivity of pesticide differs in Bt versus non‐Bt technology for South African cotton smallholders, and what the implications for pesticide use levels are in the two technologies. This is accomplished by applying a damage control framework to farm‐level data from Makhathini flats, KwaZulu‐Natal. Contrary to findings elsewhere, notably China, that farmers over‐use pesticides and that transgenic technology benefits farmers by enabling large reductions in pesticide use, the econometric evidence here indicates that non‐Bt smallholders in South Africa under‐use pesticide. Thus, the main potential contribution of the new technology is to enable them to realise lost productivity resulting from under‐use. By providing a natural substitute for pesticide, the Bt technology enables the smallholders to circumvent credit and labour constraints associated with pesticide application. Thus, the same technology that greatly reduces pesticide applications but only mildly affects yields, when used by large‐scale farmers in China and elsewhere, benefits South‐African smallholder farmers primarily via a yield‐enhancing effect.     

Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District,China

Farmers’ risk preferences play an important role in agricultural production decisions. This study characterizes risk preferences among farmers in Yongqiao and determines how these risk preferences are related to their choices regarding climate change adaptation strategies. We find that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived changes to the local climate. The risk experiment result shows that the representative subject was risk averse, and women were more risk averse than men. The relationships between farmers’ risk preferences and different climate change adaptation choices were different. Farmers’ risk aversion was negatively and significantly related with adaptation strategies on planting new crop varieties and adopting new technology, but it had a significantly positive effect on purchasing weather index crop insurance. The results also indicate that the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income and perception of climate change impacts influence farmers’ adaptation decisions.     

PREMIUM RATEMAKING IN AN ALL RISK CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM1

Fluctuation in farm incomes resulting from variation in crop yield is one of the most significant features in agriculture. Crop insurance is a feasible method by which the farmer can protect his income and his investment from the disastrous effects of crop losses due to natural hazards. This study has attempted to cover two parts. First, it has examined the most important-factors influencing crop yields in connection with the premium rate scheme (i.e. the long-run average yield and the level of coverage). These factors include resource inputs, technology, weather, and stochastic variable. Second, it has developed a refined method of approximating the premium rate. The data used in testing normality were based on the Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation's annual yield survey covering the years 1916 to 1964. The test shows that none of the annual yield distributions within the area surveyed was normally distributed, revealing that a cartful and exact delineation of a crop risk area is necessary. The findings also show that the cyclical pattern of weather and the upward trend in crop production due to technology were evidently important for the adjustment of the level of coverage and premium rate over time. Additional research relating the effects of weather and technology on crop yields would help to establish a more realistic insurance program. Other aspects should not be overlooked. These include (a) other possible levels besides the existing level of coverage and (b) a livestock or a combined crop-livestock insurance program along with the crop insurance program. The purpose of these additional aspects is to provide farmers with a fuller measure of protection.     

Unpacking a crop diversity hotspot: farmer practice and preferences in Northern Malawi

Crop diversity is a key principle of sustainable food production systems. Yet, inter and intra specific diversification is declining in many regions of the world. In Northern Malawi, a participatory action research project (Soils Food and Healthy Communities) has conducted agroecological co-learning with farmers for over a decade, providing an opportunity to explore farmer management, crop choice and variety selection practices. Farmers who participate receive seed for 0.10 ha of on-farm testing for one growing season and then decide whether to continue to grow the crop. Cropping system diversity, management practices and traits associated with crops grown and lost were assessed through interviews with 198 farm households (757 fields). We found an average of 1.3 species per field and 4.0 crops per farm. This is almost twice the level of diversity in other reports from Malawi smallholder farms. Farmers cited a wide range of preferred groundnut variety traits, as well as concerns (namely, high labour requirements). Both modern and local maize varieties are being grown and those retained were often associated with early maturity or preferred grain quality traits such as storability. Overall, farmers at this Northern Malawi agroecology education site are growing diverse crop mixtures that include traditional as well as modern varieties of maize and groundnut.     

Does access to improved grain storage technology increase farmers' welfare? Experimental evidence from maize farming in Ethiopia

Seasonal price variability for cereals is two to three times higher in Africa than on the international reference market. Seasonality is even more pronounced when access to appropriate storage and opportunities for price arbitrage are limited. As smallholder farmers typically sell their production after harvest, when prices are low, this leads to lower incomes as well as higher food insecurity during the lean season, when prices are high. One solution to reduce seasonal stress is the use of improved storage technologies. Using data from a randomised controlled trial, in a major maize-growing region of Western Ethiopia, we study the impact of hermetic bags, a technology that protects stored grain against insect pests, so that the grain can be stored longer. Despite considerable price seasonality—maize prices in the lean season are 36% higher than after harvesting—we find no evidence that hermetic bags improve welfare, except that access to these bags allowed for a marginally longer storage period of maize intended for sale by 2 weeks. But this did not translate into measurable welfare gains as we found no changes in any of our welfare outcome indicators. This ‘near-null’ effect is due to the fact that maize storage losses in our study region are relatively lower than previous studies suggested—around 10% of the quantity stored—likely because of the widespread use of an alternative to protect maize during storage, for example a cheap but highly toxic fumigant. These findings are important for policies that seek to promote improved storage technologies in these settings.     

Willingness to Pay for Insured Loans in Northern Ghana

Index insurance has been heralded as a potential solution to risk management problems faced by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Despite its potential, demand for standalone index insurance contracts has remained low in early field trials. We investigate the willingness to pay for drought index insurance‐backed loans in northern Ghana using contingent valuation. We find that index insurance lowers overall demand for agricultural loans. We also compare micro‐level index insurance, provided directly to farmers, with meso‐level insurance, provided to the credit agency and find that farmers appear to prefer micro‐level insurance. Finally, farmers are willing to pay to avoid basis risk.     

Soyabeans and sustainable agriculture in southern Africa

Maize is the dominant staple crop across most of southern Africa—it is so dominant in some areas that more than 80 per cent of the smallholder land area is planted with maize. Soyabean was identified as the crop with a potential to address the need for diversifying the cropping systems, which could assist in overcoming the pervading soil fertility constraints and could provide smallholder farmers with an opportunity to earn income while also addressing the nutritional security of households. An initiative was launched in the 1996/97 cropping season in Zimbabwe, to test soyabean as a potential smallholder crop. From an initial 55 farmers in the first year, soyabean production expanded rapidly to an estimated 10,000 farmers three years later. Since then, soyabean has diffused spontaneously to most smallholder farming areas in the higher rainfall zones of Zimbabwe. Thus, the initiative has assisted a large number of smallholders to grow soyabean, and exploded a long-held belief in Zimbabwe that soyabean is not a suitable crop for smallholders.     

Market imperfections,access to information and technology adoption in Uganda: challenges of overcoming multiple constraints

Limited empirical evidence exists on how multiple binding constraints influence the adoption of improved technologies by smallholder farmers. This article uses the case of groundnut variety adoption in Uganda to investigate the role of information, seed supply, and credit constraints in conditioning technology uptake. New data from a household survey in seven groundnut growing districts (n = 945) indicate that 8% of farmers lack information on new varieties, while 18% and 6% of farmers, respectively, cannot adopt mainly due to seed supply and capital constraints. A tobit‐type specification that considers all nonadopters as being uninterested in the technology (i.e., corner solutions) would lead to inconsistent parameter estimates and incorrect conclusions in this context. We therefore estimate a modified multi‐hurdle specification of demand for new varieties, taking into account how information, seed supply, and capital constraints jointly determine adoption probability and intensity. The study reveals new empirical insights on why agricultural technology adoption in Africa has lagged behind: slow uptake is not mainly due to a lack of economic incentives, but rather a reflection of information, seed supply, and credit constraints that prevent farmers from translating their desired demand into adoption of modern varieties. Policy implications are discussed.     

The economic impacts of technology and climate change: New evidence from U.S. corn yields

Over the past century, U.S. farmers have been offered a steady stream of new agricultural technologies, and more recently, experienced climate change. Because these two events have been occurring simultaneously, identifying their separate effects is difficult, and misimputation is easy. This article explicitly examines the economics of technical change and the interaction between weather and technology as revealed in a half century of panel data on U.S. Midwest rainfed state‐average corn yields. Observed yields reflect two components: yield potential and damage to the potential caused by weather and pests. Yield potential is modeled as a stochastic production frontier where nitrogen fertilization, public corn research, and introduction and adoption of biotech corn seeds impact yield potential and excess heat impacts nitrogen productivity. The yield‐damage/damage‐control function permits biotech corn plants to abate adverse effects of weather and pest events. Results include the following: nitrogen use, public corn research, and biotech seed‐corn adoption increase yield potential; soil moisture stress reduces yield potential, and excess heat severely reduces nitrogen productivity. Biotech corn plants abate yield damage caused by soil moisture stress but not excess heat.     

Measuring Farm and Market Level Economic Impacts of Improved Maize Production Technologies in Ethiopia: Evidence from Panel Data

While it is often recognised that agricultural technology adoption decisions are intertwined and best characterised by multivariate models, typical approaches to examining adoption and impacts of agricultural technology have focused on single technology adoption choice and ignored interdependence among technologies. We examine farm‐ and market‐level impacts of multiple technology adoption choices using comprehensive household survey data collected in 2010/11 and 2012/13 in Ethiopia. Economic surplus analysis combined with panel data switching endogenous regression models are used to compute the supply shift parameter (K‐shift parameter), while at the same time controlling for the endogeneity inherent in agricultural technology adoption among farmers. We find that our improved technology set choices have significant impacts on farm‐level maize yield and maize production costs, where the greatest effect appears to be generated when various technologies are combined. The change in maize yield and production costs results in an average 26.4% cost reduction per kilogram of maize output (the K‐shift parameter). This increases the producer and consumer surpluses by US$ 140 and US$ 105 million per annum, respectively. These changes in economic surplus help to reduce the number of poor people by an estimated 788 thousand per year. We conclude that deliberate extension efforts and other policies that encourage integration of technologies are important for maize technologies to yield their full potential at both farm and market levels.