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1.
《国际粮食与农业综合企业市场学杂志》2013,25(2):19-34
Abstract This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico. 相似文献
2.
Dragan Miljkovic Rodney Paul 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2003,47(3):349-366
Trade creation in agricultural products is defined as a statistically significant positive break in the trend function of the growth in exports and imports between member countries. The present study attempts to determine the time of any break in the trend of real exports and imports between the Canada–USA Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member countries for the years 1980:I through 1999:II, and document the scale of the phenomenon. The present study finds trade creation only occurs in USA agricultural exports to Canada because of CUSTA. The results confirm the theory that the regionalism of NAFTA did not lead to regionalisation or an increasing share of intraregional international trade. 相似文献
3.
Asparagus is a perishable, highly seasonal crop. We find that out‐of‐season imports of asparagus caused habit formation that increased demand in the U.S. growing seasons. We find that habit effects offset about 64% of the welfare losses to U.S. asparagus producers from increased Mexican imports under NAFTA and all of the U.S. producer welfare losses from increased Peruvian imports under the Andean Trade Preference Act. We estimate that the U.S. producer welfare losses from NAFTA are less than the annualized value of market loss assistance provided them in the 2008 Farm Bill. 相似文献
4.
《国际粮食与农业综合企业市场学杂志》2013,25(1):115-139
Abstract The purpose of this study was to measure NAFTA's impact to date and quantify how the producers and consumers of fresh tomatoes in the United States, Canada and Mexico have benefited or lost. Changes in consumer and producer surpluses were calculated in 2001 US dollars based on simulations of two scenarios. The analysis found that U.S. consumers captured $12.1 billion more surplus than they would have captured had NAFTA not been enacted. Mexican fresh tomato producers gained an additional $2.08 billion in surplus due to NAFTA. In contrast to Mexican growers, U.S. and Canadian producers appear not to have benefited economically from NAFTA. Findings suggest that U.S. producers would have earned $3.29 billion more if NAFTA had not gone into effect. Canadian producer surplus with NAFTA was estimated to be approximately $20 million less with NAFTA, and the total net benefit from NAFTA was found to be a positive $10.87 billion. 相似文献
5.
Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and U.S. Food Manufacturing 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Ebru Alpay Steven Buccola & Joe Kerkvliet 《American journal of agricultural economics》2002,84(4):887-901
Many argued during the NAFTA debate that trade liberalization would favor Mexican over U.S. food processors, especially because of lax environmental laws south of the border. We find through an examination of profit functions that productivity growth in Mexico has outstripped that in the United States, suggesting free trade indeed will benefit Mexican suppliers. U.S. pollution regulations have had no impact on the profitability or productivity of U.S. food manufacturing. In contrast, Mexico's swiftly rising environmental standards have enhanced food processors' productivity growth, corroborating the Porter hypothesis. Pollution law, therefore, has favored Mexican over U.S. food processing, but for reasons few had anticipated. 相似文献
6.
Julian M. Alston Joseph V. Balagtas Henrich Brunke Daniel A. Sumner 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2006,50(2):131-152
During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts. 相似文献
7.
Allan Rae 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2008,52(3):283-302
China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation; this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs. 相似文献
8.
The impact of U.S.‐grown maize on Mexican markets is a subject of heated debate, and is complicated by limited substitution between white and yellow maize as well as regional price differences within Mexico. This article improves on previous analyses using a detailed data set of white maize prices reported weekly in 11 states across Mexico from 1998 through 2005. Using cointegration analysis and the error‐correction model, we find that prices between the United States and Mexico do not share a common long‐run relationship. Within Mexico, prices in Michoacán and Oaxaca are only weakly related with prices in neighboring states, whereas prices in Sinaloa and Jalisco exert considerable influence on prices elsewhere in Mexico. We conclude that, despite North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), white maize prices in Mexico are determined by local conditions including particularly the degree of integration to other regions within Mexico. 相似文献
9.
David Abler John C. Beghin David Blandford Amani Elobeid 《Review of Agricultural Economics》2008,30(1):82-102
We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a "no-cost" basis to taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar could accumulate. The replacement of the current sugar program by one similar to other major U.S. crop programs would solve the problem of potential stock accumulation, accommodate further trade liberalization under a new WTO and future bilateral trade agreements, but would induce significant fiscal outlays through direct payments. 相似文献
10.
Mexico is the world's largest importer of non-fat dry milk (NFDM) and imports of cheese, fluid milk, and whey have increased rapidly in the past four years. In the wake of GATT and the NAFTA, as well as recent economic developments in Mexico, world dairy markets will be affected as a result of changes in the Mexican dairy sector. The study analyzes both domestic and import demand for dairy products in Mexico to determine price and income elasticities as well as import elasticities. The results indicate that the demand for fluid milk is the most responsive to price changes and NFDM demand is inelastic with respect to its own price. There is little subtitution between fluid milk and non-fat dry milk, although fluid milk is relatively elastic, which suggests the existence of other substitutes for fluid milk. Estimation of import demand equations reveal similar trends in response to price changes, but income elasticity of imports was highest for fluid milk which suggests that Mexico will import possibly more fluid than dry milk as incomes rise. The exchange rate was the most significant variable influencing all dairy product imports. 相似文献
11.
Helen Caraveli‐Ioannidis 《Oxford Development Studies》2013,41(1):120-141
Summary Greece's climatic and soil conditions, together with the size structure of its farms favour the production of Mediterranean‐type products, in which the country has a comparative advantage. However, the structure of agricultural production and exports has been changing, at least since 1961, when Greece became an Associate Member of the EC, with a shift from traditional crops (tobacco, cotton, olive oil and dried vine fruit), towards fruit and vegetables especially of late towards early varieties which do not coincide seasonally with EC production as well as certain “Northern” products (wheat, maize, and barley). Despite a substantial increase in livestock production, imports of meat, and dairy products have grown considerable faster than imports of other agricultural produce. By presenting these trends, this paper attempts to show that in the post ‐ EC membership period (after 1.1.1981) developments in agricultural production and trade cannot be attributed to membership, since they had appeared long before it. This evidence also indicates that the above trends are not likely to change significantly within the EC in the future. 相似文献
12.
Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main products exported by the US to different countries. For imports we used monthly series of the principal products imported by the US from Canada, the major source of imports. The strongest evidence was obtained by pooling the data across countries and products. In the short run, exports were very elastic with respect to the exchange rate (−2.6), while imports were moderately elastic (1.2). In the long run, the elasticity decreased but remained significant (0.5 for both exports and imports). Appreciation of the US dollar tended to matter more than depreciation, but the hypothesis that the effect of exchange rate was symmetric could not be rejected. 相似文献
13.
This study addresses the impact of exchange rate levels and uncertainty on bilateral agricultural trade between Turkey and 20 major trading partners, using panel cointegration analysis for annual data covering the period 1980–2005. Results show that (i) the exchange rate level is less robustly linked to trade volumes than is exchange rate uncertainty, (ii) exchange rate uncertainty is associated with smaller trade volumes in both directions, but more so for imports than for exports, and (iii) income growth in Turkey is associated with greater imports, just as income growth among trading partners is associated with greater exports. These findings provide some clues for understanding the recent patterns of Turkish agricultural trade, and suggest directions for future research. 相似文献
14.
Imports of food products are often seen primarily as a threat to domestic producers while the broader economic impacts are ignored. Research on rapidly growing U.S. avocado imports has focused on the consequences for the U.S. avocado industry. This study conducts an economic impact analysis to measure the level and industry distribution of any benefits of U.S. imports of avocados from Mexico that may accrue to the U.S. national economy. We find that the US$1.5 billion in U.S. imports of Mexican avocados in 2015 had a positive and statistically significant effect on the U.S. economy in that year. Every dollar of avocado imports from Mexico in 2015 generated US$2.31 in U.S. output, US$1.41 in U.S. GDP, and US$0.79 in U.S. labor income. About 12.3 jobs were generated per US$1 million of imports. A separate econometric analysis corroborates the result. We conclude that imports of Mexican avocados are pro-growth for the U.S. economy. 相似文献
15.
Mary E. Burfisher Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder 《American journal of agricultural economics》2002,84(3):736-748
We use a multi–country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with agricultural policy details to simulate the effects of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We find that Mexico gains from NAFTA only when it also removes domestic distortions in agriculture. In that case, agriculture can generate allocative efficiency gains large enough to offset the terms of trade losses that arise because Mexico has higher initial tariffs than its NAFTA partners. When an RTA forces a developing country to reform its domestic distortions that are linked to trade restrictions, it becomes a building block toward multilateralism. 相似文献
16.
Of the twelve million people who live within 100 km of the US–Mexico border, 90 percent are clustered in transboundary sister cities that share common water sources and pollution problems. New institutions created to address environmental concerns over NAFTA offer the promise of greater financial and technical assistance for water management in border cities. This paper reviews US–Mexico border water issues and institutions. Using insights from game theory, it draws policy lessons for institutions funding border water projects. We examine how the design of assistance programs, technical support, and pre‐existing water rights and regulations affect project outcomes. The diversity and geographic dispersion of water conflicts suggests potential for applying the interconnected game approach to US‐Mexico water negotiations. 相似文献
17.
We investigate how a combination of the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure and product differentiation affects beef trade and the consequences for the United States (US)–European Union (EU) hormone-treated beef trade dispute. We develop a partial equilibrium model to represent the global beef markets and product differentiation between non-hormone-treated beef, hormone-treated beef, and other beef. The results show that removing the SPS measure increases EU hormone-treated beef imports from the US and Canada and decrease beef consumption. In addition, EU hormone-treated beef consumption and imports can be related to a few key indicators of product differentiation. The framework we develop can estimate EU hormone-treated beef consumption and imports based on a minimum of parameters relating to product differentiation, thereby providing useful applied economic analysis of a key trade measure. 相似文献
18.
19.
Paul Mwebaze Jim Monaghan Nicola Spence Alan MacLeod Martin Hare Brian Revell 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2010,61(1):97-121
The risk of non‐indigenous plant pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. The objective of this article is to identify existing and emerging supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they could provide invasion pathways. We tested the hypothesis that increased imports of fresh produce from new sources outside the European Union could increase the risks of non‐indigenous insect pests. We use a bio‐economic model approach in which the number of species arrivals is a function of the volume of imports, whereas the volume of imports itself is a function of gross domestic product, relative import prices and seasonality. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes of fresh produce and species detections increasing from new supply sources. If this trend continues in the future, then the UK inspection agency should expect to confront species from new suppliers in much greater numbers, given that import volumes of fresh produce are income elastic. 相似文献
20.
The Impact of an EU–US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement on Biofuel and Feedstock Markets 下载免费PDF全文
John C. Beghin Jean‐Christophe Bureau Alexandre Gohin 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2017,68(2):321-344
We assess the impact of a potential TTIP bilateral free trade agreement on the EU and US bio‐economies (feedstock, biofuels, by‐products, and related competing crops) and major trade partners in these markets. The analysis develops a multi‐market model that incorporates bilateral trade flows (US to EU, EU to US, and similarly with third countries) and is calibrated to the OECD‐FAO baseline for 2013–2022 to account for recent policy decisions. The major policy reforms from a TTIP involve tariff and TRQ liberalisation and their direct contractionary impact on US sugar supply, EU biofuel production, and indirect negative effect on US high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production. EU sugar and isoglucose production expand along with US ethanol and biodiesel and oilseed crushing. EU sugar would flow to the US, US biofuels and vegetable oil to the EU. We further quantify non‐tariff measures (NTM) affecting these trade flows between the EU and the US. EU oilseed production contracts, and EU crushing expands with improving crushing margins following reduced NTM frictions. Our analysis reveals limited net welfare gains with most net benefits reaped by Brazil and not the two trading partners of the TTIP. 相似文献