It is where you are that matters: the spatial determinants of rural poverty in India

The spatial patterns of poverty in India are of considerable importance in themselves and for development theory and practice. This article examines the determinants of rural poverty in India using spatial econometric methods. It finds that while agricultural growth is the key determinant of rural poverty declines, there is significant spatial dependence in the growth rates of agricultural output. Irrigation is the primary driver of agricultural growth, and spatial variations in irrigation development seem to be associated with agro‐ecological conditions which may be vastly different within Indian states, parts of which may be similar to those prevailing in geographically contiguous states. Poverty reduction strategies need to be designed in the light of spatial factors and using spatial methods.     

Determinants of Smallholders’ Decisions to Leave Land Fallow: The Case of Kosovo

This article investigates why farmers in Kosovo leave land fallow when their farms’ total land area is small and households, almost fully dependent on farming for their livelihoods, are large. It uses a comprehensive survey carried out during the agricultural year 2005/2006 to explore agricultural households’ perceptions of production, market conditions and general security 6 years after the end of the military conflict in the former Yugoslavia. Several locational, household and farm characteristics empirically approximate the significance of different factors for the amount of land left idle. Two different econometric models are used to address the characteristics of the dependent variable distribution by accounting for endogeneity. The main determinants of the share of land left fallow are found to be related to the economic and institutional structure, and to the general feeling of insecurity.     

基于乡村振兴的河南省农业生态综合评价研究

［目的］农业是国民经济的基础产业，探究农业生态发展现状，有利于制定针对性的农业发展规划，也将有利于推进乡村振兴战略的实施。［方法］基于2000—2016年的统计数据，采用DEA SBM模型、熵值法和耦合协调度模型，从农业生态效率、经济条件、资源条件、环境条件4个方面分析河南省农业生态综合发展水平，探究农业生态效率与经济条件、资源条件和环境条件之间的耦合发展关系。［结果］2000—2016年河南省农业生态综合评价分值呈现明显的上升趋势，该阶段农业生态化水平发展态势良好。这个阶段内农业生态效率指数均高于全国农业生态效率指数，对全国农业的生态化发展贡献较大。经济条件评价分值在逐年提高，对农业生态化发展的贡献在不断提升。2000—2016年农业生态效率与经济条件、资源条件和环境条件三者之间的耦合协调度均整体呈递增趋势，耦合发展关系表现良好。［结论］尽管河南省农业生态化水平呈现良好的发展态势，但提升的空间还很大，仍需不断优化资源配置，促进农业生态效率与经济、资源和环境条件向更高耦合阶段发展。     

A Spatial Econometric Approach to the Economics of Site-Specific Nitrogen Management in Corn Production

The objective of this study is to determine the potential for using spatial econometric analysis of combine yield monitor data to estimate the site-specific crop response functions. The specific case study is for site-specific nitrogen (N) application to corn production in Argentina. Spatial structure of the yield data is modeled with landscape variables, spatially autoregressive error and groupwise heteroskedasticity. Results suggest that N response differs by landscape position, and that site-specific application may be modestly profitable. Profitability depends on the model specification used, with all spatial models consistently indicating profitability, whereas the nonspatial models do not.     

欧美及东亚地区耕地轮作休耕制度实践：对比与启示

研究目的:归纳和分析欧美规模农业经济体和东亚小规模农业经济体轮作休耕的制度实践,为中国大陆地区建立和实行耕地轮作休耕制度提供借鉴。研究方法:文献研究法和分析比较法。研究结果:欧美国家和东亚地区均基于私有产权的体系框架,但实行轮作休耕的背景条件有所差异,制度目标也各有所侧重;轮作休耕政策较有弹性,其组织实施及管理与农业生产方式相适应;欧美国家主要依据土地生产率、租金、农业补贴等市场要素制定补偿标准,东亚地区则主要依据耕地等级和后继具体用途等资源要素制定补偿标准;欧美国家多有后期监管,东亚地区相对缺乏。研究结论:(1)中国大陆地区应基于粮食安全和生态文明建设要求合理确定轮作休耕的规模与布局;(2)结合区域农业资源禀赋和生态环境特点,设计差异化的区域休耕模式;(3)轮作休耕制度应与农地基本制度和改革要求相适应,充分尊重农户的主体地位;(4)立足平衡土地利用方式改变导致的收益损失等建立和完善补偿标准;(5)建立健全轮作休耕监管监测评价体系,保障轮作休耕制度有效实施。     

广西农业生态旅游景点空间集聚性及其发展潜力评价

[目的]探讨农业生态旅游空间分布有利于合理优化和调整旅游资源,同时评价农业生态旅游为其进一步稳定、健康、持续发展提供一定依据和参考意见。[方法]文章利用空间分布密度和最邻近点指数分析广西农业生态旅游的空间分布特征;同时采用模糊层析综合法对构建的评价体系进行分析研究。[结果]广西14个市区的农业生态旅游存在差异,北海市(2.45)、钦州市(1.08)、梧州市(1.04)、贺州市(1.02)、来宾市(1.01)的最邻近指数均大于1,属于随机型分布;防城港市(1.00)和百色市(1.00)的最邻近指数等于1,属于均匀型分布;贵港市(0.98)、河池市(0.98)、柳州市(0.96)、玉林市(0.95)、南宁市(0.92)、桂林市(0.86)、崇左市(0.75)的最邻近指数均小于1,属于凝聚型分布。此外广西农业生态旅游的综合评价结果得分36.52,发展处于初级阶段。[结论]在现有广西农业生态旅游的基础上,因地制宜地挖掘各地特色,提高农业生态化建设,促进农业生态旅游持续发展。     

Spatial dependency and technical efficiency: an application of a Bayesian stochastic frontier model to irrigated and rainfed rice farmers in Bohol,Philippines

We investigated the role of spatial dependency in the technical efficiency estimates of rice farmers using panel data from the Central Visayan island of Bohol in the Philippines. Household‐level data were collected from irrigated and rainfed agro‐ecosystems. In each ecosystem, the geographical information on residential and farm‐plot neighborhood structures was recorded to compare household‐level spatial dependency among four types of neighborhoods. A Bayesian stochastic frontier approach that integrates spatial dependency was used to address the effects of neighborhood structures on farmers’ performance. Incorporating the spatial dimension into the neighborhood structures allowed for identification of the relationships between spatial dependency and technical efficiency through comparison with nonspatial models. The neighborhood structure at the residence and plot levels were defined with a spatial weight matrix where cut‐off distances ranged from 100 to 1,000 m. We found that spatial dependency exists at the residential and plot levels and is stronger for irrigated farms than rainfed farms. We also found that technical inefficiency levels decrease as spatial effects are more taken into account. Because the spatial effects increase with a shorter network distance, the decreasing technical inefficiency implies that the unobserved inefficiencies can be explained better by considering small networks of relatively close farmers over large networks of distant farmers.     

Environmental impacts of technological change in Bangladesh agriculture: farmers' perceptions, determinants, and effects on resource allocation decisions

This article measures the impact of modern technology adoption in raising farmers' environmental awareness and the impact of farmers' environmental awareness on resource use by utilizing survey data from 21 villages in three agro‐ecological regions of Bangladesh. The econometric analysis is based on the application of the Tobit model explaining farmers' environmental awareness in the first stage and a profit function examining environmental awareness and resource use relationships in the second stage. Results reveal that the “level” and “duration” of involvement with modern technology raises farmers' environmental awareness, and that farmers' environmental awareness reduces resource use including chemicals. Farmers, who are aware of the adverse environmental impacts of modern agricultural technology, use lower amounts of all inputs in order to avoid further environmental damage. Therefore, efforts to raise farmers' environmental awareness are expected to enhance intangible benefits accruing from a relatively less chemical‐intensive environment.     

House price determinants in Athens: a spatial econometric approach

In this paper, we try to identify the price determinants in the biggest real estate market of Greece, the metropolitan area of Athens. For that purpose, various spatial econometric models are used to explore their prediction ability and we are displaying the variations in property prices for the wider area of Athens. These models have been compared based on different criteria such as model fit, the Akaike information criterion and variance of the residuals. Our results indicate that, in our case, the spatial general model is the most appropriate simultaneous autoregressive model when dealing with spatially autocorrelated prices of housing properties data, in terms of our selection criteria.     

农业生态旅游资源评价体系实证研究——以“太行山大峡谷景区”为例

[目的]农业生态旅游资源是一种具有农业特色的生态旅游资源,为了优化现有国家标准对这一新型旅游资源评价的科学性与准确性,需要建立新的农业生态旅游资源评价体系,才能做好农业生态旅游资源的开发经营工作。[方法]文章以太行山大峡谷景区为例首先运用层次分析法构建了评价指标;其次,通过专家打分法计算得出各评价指标的权重,并建立评价模型;再次,采用调查问卷的方式得出各评价指标的评分,并计算太行山大峡谷景区的农业生态旅游资源总体评价得分;最后对其进行综合评价。[结果]资源自身的美感度、独特性、环境的适宜性和生态环境的稳定性是农业生态旅游资源开发的优势所在;组合度、聚合度、区域内的经济条件及历史文化价值则是农业生态旅游资源开发的劣势所在。[结论]资源的美感度和独特性是开发农业生态旅游资源的重要指标;生态环境的稳定性是开发农业生态旅游资源的基础保证;完善配套设施,加强与旅游的融合是开发农业生态旅游资源的未来发展方向。     

Policies for sustainable development in the hillside areas of Honduras: a quantitative livelihoods approach

In this article, we use data for 376 households, 1,066 parcels, and 2,143 plots located in 95 villages in the hillside areas in Honduras to generate information needed by decision makers to assess the needs and opportunities for public investments, and design policies that stimulate natural resource conservation. We develop a quantitative livelihood approach, using factor and cluster analysis to group households based on the use of their main assets. This resulted in seven household categories that pursue similar livelihood strategies. We use a multinomial logit model to show that livelihood strategies are determined by comparative advantages as reflected by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic variables. While 92% of the rural hillsides population in Honduras lives on US$1.00/capita/day or less, households that follow a livelihood strategy based on basic grain farming are the poorest because they often live in isolated areas with relatively poor agro‐ecological and socioeconomic conditions. Opportunities for off‐farm work tend to be limited in these areas and household strategies that combine on‐farm work with off‐farm work earn higher incomes. Per capita incomes can be increased by improving road infrastructure, widening access to land, policies that reduce household size and dependency ratios, and adoption of sustainable land management technologies that restore soil fertility. We used probit models to show that the latter can be promoted by agricultural extension programs and land redistribution. Investments in physical assets should be directed toward households that pursue livelihood strategies based on off‐farm employment or coffee production, while agricultural training programs are best focused on livestock producers.     

农业产业准入负面清单制度研究

[目的]旨在依据区域农业资源禀赋、生态环境容量、产业基础和功能定位,按照"生态红线"和"底线约束"的要求,明确种植业、养殖业发展方向和开发强度,强化农业产业准入门槛,加强区域资源管护和生态治理。[方法]以农业产业准入负面清单为研究对象,在综合考虑农业资源承载力、区域主体功能定位基础上,剖析建立农业产业准入负面清单制度的背景、意义及其内涵,基于"减规模、转方式、控规模、退出生产"要求探讨负面清单编制原则以及禁止类、限制类农业产业目录与管控条件的编制方法,重点分析农业资源超载、生态环境退化典型区域的农业产业发展管控对策。[结果](1)在华北平原地下水漏斗区,实施节水保水型耕作方式,限制冬小麦种植面积;(2)在中—重度重金属污染区实施3～5年休耕,在轻微—轻度重金属污染区域,实施清洁去污型休耕模式,优先种植生物量高、吸收积累作用强的富集型植物;(3)在长江中下游传统双季稻主产区,适度调减双季稻田,实施"双改单",控制水网密集区生猪、奶牛养殖规模;(4)在生态严重退化区,实行生态修复型休耕,种植防风固沙、涵养水分、保护耕作层的植物;(5)在东北黑土区,适度调减水稻种植面积,增加食用大豆生产,推进种养结合;(6)在生态保护发展区,推行禁牧休牧轮牧和舍饲半舍饲。[结论]采取开展农业产业准入负面清单编制试点、完善法律法规、建立生态补偿机制、加强制度建设等措施保障农业产业准入负面清单制度的建立。     

Modelling Farmers’ Participation in an Agri‐environmental Scheme using Panel Data: An Application to the Rural Environment Protection Scheme in Ireland

Previous studies that have attempted to model the participation decision of farmers in agri‐environmental schemes have used a static framework where it was not possible to examine changes in the participation decision of farmers over time. This is rectified in this paper by utilising an 11‐year panel that contains information on 300 farmers for each year. The structure of this dataset allows us to employ discrete time duration random effects panel data logit models to model the determinants of entering the Irish Rural Environment Protection Scheme (REPS). We introduce a dynamic element into a number of the models by using the random effects logit model estimator, with lagged dependent variables as additional explanatory variables. The results point to the fact that systems of farming that are more extensive and less environmentally degrading remain those most likely to participate in the REPS. In addition, the results highlight the fact that where no attempt is made to control for unobserved heterogeneity or path dependency the effects of the farm‐ and farmer‐specific characteristics may be overestimated.     

四川省农业景观生态风险评价研究

[目的]由自然环境和人文地理叠加形成的农业景观复杂多样,具有生产、生活、生态3种功能,随着农业生态环境日益遭受破坏,对其进行农业景观生态风险评价有利于促进区域农业的可持续发展。[方法]以四川省为例,从压力—状态—响应3方面构建农业景观生态风险评价指标体系,通过确定权重和隶属度大小,对研究区农业景观生态风险进行评价。[结果]根据模糊关系评价结果,四川省农业景观生态压力的最大值为0. 111,处于中等风险水平;生态状态的最大值为0. 139,处于中等风险水平;生态响应的最大值为0. 091,处于较低风险水平。[结论]四川省农业景观生态仍有很大的空间需要优化,农业景观生态对于维持农业生态系统具有重要意义,四川省未来在农业景观生态方面应保障且降低现有的生态风险等级,确保兼顾农业可持续发展和保护农业生态功能并举。     

云南省县域农业生态效率时空分异及其影响因素

目的 云南省地形起伏度大,立体气候资源丰富,高原特色农业优势明显,测度其农业生态效率,并从农业生产条件、社会经济和自然生态环境3个维度选取10个驱动因子分析其对农业生态效率的影响程度。方法 文章运用超效率的SBM模型,基于2008—2018年云南省129个县（市、区）农业面板数据,测度县域农业生态效率,结合空间自相关模型和地理探测器模型,对云南省县域农业生态效率的时空演变、空间异质性及其影响因素进行实证研究。结果 （1）云南省县域农业生态效率整体处于中等效率水平,但呈波动下降趋势;空间上呈东西部、南北部相对高、中部低的“U”型分布格局,且东西差异大于南北差异。（2）从全局空间自相关来看,云南省县域农业生效率正相关和波动性空间集聚特征显著;从局部空间自相关来看,农业生态效率空间正相关的县域数量在逐年递减,集聚性呈下降趋势。农业生态效率高高（HH）集聚主要分布在云南省西北部及南部,向邻接县域扩散的趋势明显;低低（LL）集聚主要分布在云南省中部和东南部。（3）从影响因素看,社会经济因素仍是目前农业生态效率主要影响因素,但其作用强度不断下降,自然环境因素特别是地形起伏度解释力不断上升,不同驱动因子对其空间分异的影响差异明显,且驱动因子交互作用会增强农业生态效率空间分异。结论 云南省县域农业生态效率时空分异显著,社会经济因素是农业生态效率空间分异的主要影响因素,但地形起伏度、降水等自然生态环境因素对农业生态效率影响程度明显提升。     

Effective dimensionality and factors affecting crop-livestock integration in West African savannas: a combination of principal component analysis and Tobit approaches

Crop‐livestock integration (CLI) to improve natural resource management for increased productivity is evolving in Nigeria and West Africa. Processes in the evolution and factors that influence it still need to be well understood. This article proposes and tests a new framework for measuring the multiple dimensionality of CLI. The framework derives a CLI index using the principal components of its most common single measures; it develops geographic information systems (GIS)‐based village‐level ecological and market factors; and it estimates parameters of factors affecting CLI using the derived index as the dependent variable in a Tobit model. The framework is tested using empirical data from 634 farm households in 11 geo‐referenced villages in the Sudan savanna (SS) and northern Guinea savanna (NGS), Nigeria. Along a north–south (SS to NGS) axis, CLI initially increases, peaking around 11.2°N, and then declines. This latitude probably identifies the boundary below which disease challenge constrains traditional livestock production and CLI. This polynomial pattern of CLI is contrary to an expected linear increase along lines of perceived potentials for rain‐fed crop production. Household resources, GIS‐derived village‐level market factors, and institutional factors also significantly affect CLI. Ecological and institutional factors have most impact on the probability of adoption and use intensities of CLI. The incorporation of GIS‐derived market factors with household and institutional variables in an econometric model offers new opportunities for assessing patterns of evolution of CLI, comparing results across sites, and targeting recommendation domains objectively. A comparison with results from more common methods of running independent models for individual indicators of CLI shows that this new framework is an effective way of reducing the multiple dimensionality of CLI to gain quicker, well‐focused knowledge of the processes of agricultural intensification.     

西南地区农业生态和经济系统协调发展分析

[目的]对西南地区农业生态经济系统进行评价,了解西南地区农业生态系统与经济系统协调度。[方法]根据我国西南地区5个省、直辖市和自治区的相关数据,建立西南地区农业生态经济系统评价指标体系,通过耦合模型对西南地区农业生态系统与经济系统协调度进行评价分析。[结果]当前我国西南地区在农业生态系统与经济系统的协调度处于中度协调水平,且耦合类型处于勉强调和协调,整体上西南地区农业生态经济系统在协调状况上相对乐观;从西南地区农业生态系统与经济系统两者对比关系看,除重庆市属于经济严重滞后型外,四川、云南、贵州省以及西藏自治区均属于经济极度滞后型。[结论]我国西南地区在农业生态系统与经济系统协调度上整体处于中度协调水平,农业经济发展均比较滞后,我国西部地区应继续注重农业生态保护,并加快农业经济发展,积极推进农业生态与经济系统协调发展。     

水足迹视阈下河北省农业用水驱动因素分析

目的 河北省地下水超采严重、水资源长期供需不平衡的背景下，探究河北省农业用水真实消耗情况及其驱动因素，对水资源安全、可持续利用具有重要意义。方法 文章基于作物需水量和作物实际用水量测度河北省农业生产蓝水足迹及绿水足迹，利用LMDI模型解析河北省农业用水变化的影响因素及驱动机理。结果 结果显示，2002—2018年河北省农业水足迹数量呈波动下降趋势，技术效应、种植规模效应和节水效应对河北省农业水足迹变化呈增量效应，其中技术效应对水足迹数量变化的正向驱动贡献值最大，这说明农业技术应用、规模效应带动和节水成效保障加快河北省农业节约用水进程；管理效应和种植结构效应对河北省农业水足迹数量变化呈减量效应，这说明水利化程度、农业种植结构给河北省农业节水带来一定程度的压力。结论 河北省水资源优化配置和高效利用，应重点强化农业节水技术、节水管理和结构调整。推广高效节水灌溉技术，推进水肥一体化建设；加大节水政策的宣传和培训力度，提高设施维护保持能力；优化各地区种植结构，持续推进“一季休耕，一季雨养”的种植模式，提升水资源和种植结构的匹配度，从而减轻河北省水资源短缺压力。     

Yield and income risk-efficiency analysis of alternative systems for rice production in the Guinea Savannah of Northern Ghana

Risk efficiency of rice grain yield and returns to farm operators' household resources generated from an improved short‐duration cover crop fallow system were compared with (traditional) natural bush fallow, and continuous rice‐cropping systems. The improved fallow system involved maintaining Calopogonium mucunoides, seeded into a natural bush fallow for 2 years before planting to rice. With no chemical fertilizer application, which reflects farmers' practice in the area, average grain yield for continuous rice (1,185 kg/ha) and the cropping sequence incorporating a natural bush fallow (1,175 kg/ha) did not differ, but were higher for the improved fallow system (1,304 kg/ha). This suggests that nutrient contribution from the leguminous cover crop made up for critical crop N requirements in the improved fallow. Stochastic dominance of grain yield distributions from the improved fallow system, relative to the other two cropping systems, was more dramatic with no N fertilizer application compared to treatments with 30 kg/ha N. Average returns were highest for the improved fallow system, followed by the natural bush fallow‐cropping system, and then continuous rice, under the no N fertilizer treatment regime. With 30 kg/ha N fertilizer, income risk efficiency was less clear (compared to treatments with no N fertilizer), especially between continuous rice and the improved fallow treatment, because of faster N mineralization effects on continuous rice. In contrast, the improved cover crop fallow system completely dominated the natural bush fallow treatment under both fertilizer regimes. Rice production systems that incorporated the leguminous cover crop fallow were superior to the natural bush fallow system, based on both grain yield and average farm income risk‐efficiency considerations.     

中国农业文化遗产的空间分布特征及影响因素分析

[目的]为更加全面掌握中国农业文化遗产资源空间分布规律及其影响因素,地理信息系统(GIS)作为定量化和可视化的分析方法具有重要意义。[方法]该研究尝试以中国境内已被全球重要农业文化遗产或中国重要农业文化遗产名录收录的62处农业文化遗产为数据源,通过ArcGIS 10.3的空间分析工具对农业文化遗产进行空间特征分析和核密度估计,并结合农业文化遗产的地域特征研究影响农业文化遗产空间分布的因素。[结果](1)农业文化遗产呈带状分布、组团状分布,分布不均衡,总体空间分布类型属聚集型;(2)农业文化遗产地域间差异明显,主要集中于我国中部和东部,长江、黄河流域内多而流域外少,沿海多而内陆少,西南部多于西北部和东北部;(3)农业文化遗产的空间分布聚集区域有5个,主要以京津、浙东、陇东、黔东、滇西为核心;(4)影响农业文化遗产空间分布的主要因素是独特的地域资源、差异化的民族特点、复杂的文化生态环境。[结论]在开展农业文化遗产地保护工作时,地理信息系统的引入将为农业文化遗产地保护提供精准决策依据和数据支撑,未来需要深入发掘地理信息系统的数字化、信息化、可视化技术在农业文化遗产信息管理、资源评估、保护规划的运用深度和广度。