抓好农村储粮工作 完善农村储备体系

四川省巴中市是全国１００个粮食交售大县之一。全市农业人口逾１００万,总耕地５．７３万公顷,其中粮食耕地４．８７万公顷。一般年产粮食６０万吨左右,年收购粮食１２万吨以上。全市现有仓容２１４１３万公斤,其中有效仓容１７１３１万公斤,月平均库存达×××××...     

四川省人口、耕地和粮食可持续发展研究

四川省在西部大开发中占有举足轻重的地位;根据该省人口、耕地、粮食的历史资料,采用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型预测了人口、耕地以及粮食的发展趋势,并对三者进行了关联度分析,根据预测和分析结果,探讨了人口、耕地和粮食可持续发展的对策和措施。     

巢湖市人口-耕地-粮食系统变化特征与预测分析

分析了巢湖市1978~2001年人口、耕地、粮食历史变化特点和规律,运用灰色动态模型GM(1,1)预测其未来变化趋势。根据预测结果,结合该市具体情况,提出人口-耕地-粮食系统可持续发展对策。     

合肥市人口-耕地-粮食系统的可持续发展研究

根据1980—1999年合肥市耕地、人口、粮食等资料，定量分析在城市化快速发展下耕地的数量变化、质量状况和耕地减少的形式以及人口、粮食的变化，并用回归法分析它们的变化趋势。研究认为在2005年、2010年合肥市食物保障能力分别在97％和95％；提出提高粮食产量的对策和实现途径，为合肥市在实行城市可持续发展的同时，做好耕地—人口—粮食系统生产发展决策、提供科学依据。     

四川省坡耕地研究及其展望

四川省坡耕地面积有547.64×104hm2,占耕地总面积的83.07%。本文介绍四川省坡耕地的现状,论述其研究意义,并对今后的研究提出了五点展望。     

四川粮食生产预测和跟踪研究

四川粮食生产预测和跟踪研究吴月良，张文秀８０年代后期，我们对四川的土地生产潜力和人口承载量作了较为系统的研究。起始年为１９８５年，预测到２０３０年，时间跨度为４５年。预测的主要指标有三个：人口、耕地、粮食总产。预测的初步结论：四川能养活的人口，长期处...     

新疆耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态分析及其调控途径研究

近年来,新疆耕地面积持续减少,人口不断增长,生态环境问题严重,人地关系矛盾突出,研究新疆的耕地-粮食-人口复合系统的动态变化对西部大开发战略的实施有举足轻重的作用。本文选取新疆耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态变化的总量和均量指标,分析各指标在1996-2005年的变化情况。通过历年总量和均量指标的变化,分析各指标变化产生的原因。并基于历年总量和均量指标的动态变化及其产生的原因,提出新疆耕地-粮食-人口复合系统的调控途径。     

我国铜矿资源勘查开发前景展望

依据我国铜矿资源储量及开发利用情况,预测到2010年我国的铜精矿产量将稳定在60×104t(金属量)左右;我国近年来铜矿保有储量略有下降,但查明的资源量略有上升。加大铜矿床的详查和勘探力度,按年产60×104t铜精矿金属含量计算,到2010年保持我国铜矿勘探新增储量和开采消耗储量大体平衡是可以做到的。西部地区正在成为我国21世纪铜资源接续基地。     

基于自回归移动模型的人口耕地粮食系统发展趋势的实证分析

用定性分析与定量研究相结合的方法,对浙江省人口耕地粮食系统的主要指标建立自回归移动平均模型,分析人口耕地粮食系统的发展趋势与协调关系,研究耕地资源和粮食总产量减少的原因,探讨了人口耕地粮食系统协调发展的途径。研究表明浙江省人口耕地粮食系统的矛盾比较突出,粮食和耕地压力日趋严峻。本文所得到的结论对有效保护耕地资源、控制人口过快增长、保证国家粮食安等都有着重要的现实意义。     

三峡库区的土地人口承载力

区域土地人口承载力是一个影响地区经济发展和社会安定的重大问题。根据三峡库区土地可承载人口的现状，以人口、土地、粮食三者相互制约、相互促进的理论为基础，通过对其土地生产力的估算和对未来10年耕地变化、粮食生产、人口发展的预测，得到了该区2010年土地人口承载量，并提出了提高该区土地人口承载力的途径和对策。     

农用地分等在耕地需求预测中的应用

基于福建省顺昌县2010年农用地分等成果更新,以及其耕地与粮食状况统计,以粮食安全为切入点,对耕地需求做了初步预测分析。结果显示,2020年顺昌县确保粮食安全耕地面积为15473.89hm~2,大于折合后现有标准耕地面积10916.12hm~2,存在5119.06hm~2标准耕地缺口。表明顺昌县在2010—2020年期间耕地数量不能确保粮食安全。耕地需求预测以耕地质量为指标基础是科学的,应用农用地分等成果预测方法简便,更贴切耕地的实际生产能力。     

农地权益保障与农业转移人口市民化

研究目的：明晰农地权益对农业转移人口市民化的影响，进而揭示当前全国各地对农业转移人口农地权益保护状况。研究方法：基于Probit模型的实证分析。研究结果：（1）从全国范围来看，农业转移人口的农地权益只得到部分保障；（2）农地权益保障状况存在较大的地区差异，区域经济越发达，农地权益保障越完善；（3）农地权益只得到部分保障对推动农业转移人口向城市迁移起着促进作用，但却对农业转移人口市民化有着显著负面影响。研究结论：农地权益保障是农业转移人口市民化的重要影响因素，农地权益的不充分保障对农业转移人口市民化具有负面影响，而经济越不发达的地区这种影响越显著。     

Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system

At present, China’s grain production pattern runs counter to the distribution patterns of farmland resources and water-heat conditions. It is urgently important to conduct research on the spatial matching of grain production and farmland resources. Based on the Potential Crop Rotation data, with regards to the situations of irrigation and rain feeding, this paper builds a measuring model of potential farmland, and separately measures the spatial matching index of grain yield with actual and potential farmland resources, thus revealing China’s grain production pattern. The results indicate that serious spatial mismatch exists between grain production and farmland resources in China. Take the potential crop rotation system into consideration, the spatial mismatch of grain yield and potential farmland resources has been aggravated by the grain production barycenter’s shift to the north China, with low Crop Rotation Index. The function-promoting regions of grain production in China are going through two evolution patterns of “northward and southward expansion” and “westward movement and northward expansion,” respectively. Inefficient use of farmland mainly occurs in the fragile ecological environments, such as the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China, the northwest area of Xinjiang and the southwest karst landform areas. The inefficient use of and the decreasing amount of available farmland have become the main causes of the decline in grain production. The problems facing Chinese agriculture caused by the spatial mismatch include the imbalance in regional structures, ecological risks, agricultural production risks, and the risk of food price. In order to cope with these problems, this paper provides some advices on protecting farmland acreage, expanding farmland potential, ensuring the safety of water resources, and extending the industrial grain chain. Our paper additionally proposes policy reforms and innovations designed to ensure the implementation of the above measures, so as to commonly defuse China’s food security crisis.     

省级基本农田数量确定与指标分解方法初探

研究目的:探讨基本农田数量确定和指标分解方法,为土地利用总体规划提供依据。研究方法:因素分析法和半定量分析法。研究结果:综合考虑现状与规划耕地的总量,基本农田的供给条件以及上级下达给本区域的基本农田保护指标确定江西省基本农田数量为2459198.61 hm 2,基本农田保护率为86%;采用因素法,综合考虑各设区市人口、耕地面积、后备资源、粮食总量以及非农占用耕地等因素将江西省基本农田分解下达给各个设区市。研究结论:基于多因素的半定量的基本农田数量分解方案方法综合了客观现实与人为主观判断力,具有良好的应用前景,可以为即将开展的新一轮土地利用总体规划修编耕地与基本农田保护提供一定依据。     

农地抵押贷款缓解种粮大户正规信贷约束了吗--基于辽宁省434户种粮大户的实证分析

本文基于粮食主产区辽宁省种粮大户的数据,运用Heckman两阶段模型,探究种粮大户信贷约束程度及农地抵押贷款对其影响。研究发现,辽宁省种粮大户的信贷约束程度为70.69%,其中开展农地抵押贷款试点地区种粮大户的信贷约束程度为62.74%,而未开展试点地区信贷约束程度为74.78%。计量结果显示,农地抵押贷款的开展对种粮大户信贷约束程度影响显著,且在其他条件不变的前提下,开展农地抵押贷款地区的种粮大户受到信贷约束的程度要比未开展地区低12.31%。     

煤炭资源开发与基本农田保护的矛盾及其协调

随着经济的发展,煤炭需求越来越大,但煤粮复合主产区面积广大,而基本农田是粮食生产的基本保障,为此分析了煤炭资源开发和基本农田保护之间的矛盾及其成因,试图利用煤粮复合区的土地以协凋能源开发与粮食生产的矛盾。提出编制协调规划,从空间和时间角度调和二者之间的矛盾等相应建议。通过建立煤炭储备保护区、提高基本农田占用标准、保证基本农田占补平衡来协调煤炭资源开发与基本农田保护的空间布局;通过时间安排,进行动态复垦,实现煤炭开采与基本农田保护的协调发展。     

四川省耕地资源可持续利用与粮食安全对策

介绍了四川省耕地资源的现状，分析了耕地持续利用的障碍因素和粮食需求状况，就促进四川省农业可持续发展与粮食安全保障提出了耕地利用的具体措施。     

Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

Attitudes of farmers in China's northern Shaanxi Province towards the land-use changes required under the Grain for Green Project, and implications for the project's success

To restore China's degraded environment, the government launched an environmental restoration project named the “Grain for Green” Project (GGP) in 1999. From 1999 to 2010, the government will spend US$ 40 billion to convert 147 million ha of farmland into forest and grassland and 173 million ha of wasteland (including abandoned farmland) into forest in 25 provinces. A primary focus is to replace farming and livestock grazing in fragile areas with reforestation and planting of forage crops. Given the project's tremendous size and number of participants, the attitudes of the affected farmers will strongly influence the GGP's success. To learn their attitudes, we surveyed 2000 farmers in 2005 to quantify their opinions of the GGP and how it has affected their livelihoods, and we discuss the concerns raised by these attitudes. Farmers appreciated the grain and financial compensation offered by the GGP, but few considered planting of trees (8.9%) or forage species (2.2%) to be a priority. Although only 19.1% felt that their livelihoods had been adversely affected by the GGP and 63.8% supported the project, a large proportion (37.2%) planned to return to cultivating forested areas and grassland once the project's subsidies end in 2018. Therefore, much of the restored vegetation risks being converted into farmland and rangeland again, compromising the sustainability of the environmental achievements. To succeed, strategies such as the GGP must compensate farmers fairly for their costs, create new agricultural products and techniques for use on more suitable land, and create job and training programs that account for the needs and desires of farmers and give them alternatives to returning to old land-use practices.     

新形势下高标准农田建设管理政策存在的问题及建议

目的 高标准农田建设是“藏粮于地，藏粮于技”的重要措施，在粮食安全问题重要性凸显的背景下，加强高标准农田建设意义非凡。通过分析机构改革后农田建设管理政策在实施过程中存在的问题及相应措施，将为政策完善提供方向和依据。方法 文章选取4个粮食主产省的8个粮食大县进行调研，组织省、市、县各级农田建设管理部门人员、新型经营主体等，采用半结构性方式进行访谈，研究分析农田建设政策落实及项目实施中存在的问题。结果 农田建设在提高粮食产能、促进农业机械化、增加农民收入、新增耕地指标和改善农田生态环境方面发挥了成效，但机构改革后的农田政策执行中还存在机制不全、体制不顺的问题，在组织协调、资金管理、项目内容管理和制度标准方面都有体现。问题根源主要来自政府部门及相关主体存在的“路径依赖”“重管理、轻服务”“一刀切”等倾向。结论 需从体制机制上完善农田建设管理政策，让高标准农田项目建设更高效，为保障粮食安全发挥更大作用。