全面二孩政策对中国中长期粮食安全形势的影响

本文将人口结构对粮食需求的影响纳入到粮食供需分析当中,基于不同人口增长情景以及粮食综合生产能力,分析全面二孩政策对我国中长期粮食安全形势的影响。研究结果表明,虽然短期内中国粮食供需平衡,但全面二孩政策在中长期将显著增加粮食需求,并在一定程度上考验未来粮食供给保障能力。若未来粮食供给能力只能维持在目前规划设计的5.5亿吨粮食综合生产能力,那么全面二孩政策下将出现严重的粮食供需缺口,预计2029—2030年供需缺口最高峰将达到7800~8500万吨,缺口率为12.5%~13.3%。2025—2030年是粮食消费需求和供需缺口的峰值阶段,应该提前做好充分准备,确保平稳度过最具挑战的阶段。     

中国需要大量进口玉米吗

6月6日,世界银行发布2014年6月中国经济简报,专题研究中国粮食消费结构的转变对国内供给和国际贸易的影响.研究认为,中国粮食消费量将不断增长,由于国内生产增长受到限制,玉米和大豆的进口量将不断增加,预测到2020年中国玉米产量为2.2亿吨,2030年为2.43亿吨;预测到2020年中国玉米需求量会达到2.4亿吨,2030年达到2.85亿吨,使玉米的供求缺口加剧.     

我国稻谷口粮消费特征及其趋势预测

[目的]稻谷是我国居民消费的第一大主粮,占到居民口粮消费60%,是我国最重要的粮食产品,研究稻谷口粮消费趋势对于保证粮食安全、指导粮食生产具有重要意义。[方法]基于对稻谷口粮总体以及分品种消费特征分析,进行人均消费水平预测,运用时间趋势外推法,结合对我国人口总数、人口结构的判断,研究测算2020年、2030年我国稻谷口粮消费总量、产量需求量和分品种消费结构。[结果]预测结果表明, 2020年、2030年稻谷口粮宏观消费量为1.51亿、1.42亿t,产量需求为1.62亿、1.53亿t,与2016年相比,分别下降5.5%、10.8%。其中粳稻口粮宏观消费量为0.63亿、0.64亿t,产量需求为0.67亿、0.68亿t。[结论]因此在未来稻谷生产方面,应根据国内实际需求,适当缩小稻谷种植面积,扩大粳稻种植比例;促进优质水稻生产,满足不断升级的消费需求;应提高稻谷收割、加工技术,改善稻谷储存条件,完善现代化物流运输体系,以减少稻谷产后损耗。     

2050年全球粮食问题展望

<正>根据联合国粮农组织(FAO)预测,2050年,世界人口将达到峰值90亿,在目前基础上粮食消费将新增10亿吨,而目前粮食产量只能满足23亿吨的需求。     

中国超级杂交稻发展现状与趋势

据有关资料介绍，到2030年世界人口将达到85亿-90亿，以稻米消费为主的人口将增至42亿-45亿．中国到2030年人口将达到16亿．按人均粮食占有量400公斤计算．粮食总需求量将达到6．4亿吨。按水稻产量占全国粮食总产量中的40％计算．未来30年中国稻谷需求量将从现在的2亿吨增至2．56亿吨。由此看来，粮食消费的刚性增长不可逆转。同时．为了改善生态环境．国家正在实行退耕还牧、退田还湖、退耕还林的政策。     

SSPs-RCPs耦合情景下我国永久基本农田划定研究

研究目的：服务国家粮食永续安全目标，面向未来情景确定永久基本农田管控数量和明确位置。研究方法：设定共享社会经济路径－代表性浓度路径（SSPs-RCPs）耦合情景，建立永久基本农田保有量模型，构建农业气候条件、地形和连片性、土壤环境健康、农田基础设施四维划定体系。研究结果：（1）2035年、2050年中国大陆人均粮食需求量分别为591.37 kg/a和548.92 kg/a，粮食总需求量分别为8.54亿~8.90亿t、7.35亿~8.13亿t。（2）2035年全国粮食平均可实现生产潜力为（7 729.41±1 699.99）~（7 828.68±1 739.41） kg/hm2，2050年为（8 126.89±1 828.73）~（8 661.90±2 100.90） kg/hm2，其中水稻优势产区位于黄淮海和长江中下游平原区，小麦位于黄土高原区和黄淮海平原区，玉米位于黄淮海平原区。（3）2035年、2050年永久基本农田理论应保量分别为0.98亿~1.11亿hm2、0.86亿~0.99亿hm2，黑龙江、山东、河南等省份应保量最多。研究结论：遵循底线思维和择优划入原则，2035年将1.12亿hm2的1—5级耕地、2050年将1.02亿hm2的划入1—4级耕地划为永久基本农田即可满足我国粮食安全需求。     

平衡膳食模式视角下粮食需求预测

[目的]随着时代的进步和社会经济的发展,对粮食安全内涵的理解也在逐步深化,粮食安全内涵不仅包括数量方面,还包括营养健康安全,保障居民营养健康成为粮食安全的新时代内涵。基于营养目标的粮食需求研究,建立营养—消费—生产的粮食生产模式,对引导居民合理健康消费和保障粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。[方法]文章首先分析了我国城乡居民营养消费状况,然后基于平衡膳食模式视角,引入标准人消费系数这一概念对我国未来粮食需求进行了更准确的预测。[结果]城镇居民粮食消费已达到高营养目标,但目前农村居民仅达到低营养目标水平,相当于21世纪初的城镇消费水平;考虑人口结构因素,2020年和2030年粮食需求总量分别为4.8亿t和5.6亿t,比没有考虑人口结构变化时分别减少8700万t和2 600万t。[结论]根据分析结果,提出以下几点政策建议:(1)宣传普及营养健康消费知识,引导居民合理膳食;(2)关注人口结构变动,及时调整粮食安全调控机制;(3)优化食品工业的产业机构升级,提高饲料粮转化率。     

2020年中国粮食需求结构分析及预测——基于营养标准的视角

本文在分析中国粮食需求用途结构和品种结构变化特征的基础上,从合理营养标准的视角确定人均食物需求,预测了2020年中国主要粮食用途和品种的需求数量。预测结果表明,中国粮食需求总量稳步增长,2020年达到约6.1亿吨;需求结构将发生明显变化,饲料用粮预计达到2.98亿吨,将取代口粮在中国粮食用途中排第一位;玉米需求量预计达到2.3亿吨,将超过稻谷成为未来中国粮食消费的最主要品种。     

气候变化对我国粮食安全的均衡分析

文章基于一般均衡模型构建了A2与B2两种气候变化情景下我国未来社会发展状况,以叶立明等人的研究成果(2030年与2050年我国三大粮食单产变化)作为政策冲击要件,模拟并分析了2030年与2050年我国粮食供给与需求状况。研究结果表明:A2与B2两种气候变化政策情景下的粮食供给与需求存在较大差异,但中低排放情景下的B2气候变化政策情景对我国粮食供需平衡更为有利;针对分品种粮食供需不平衡的状况,该文认为可以从调整种植结构的角度来改善;尽管政策情景下未来粮食供求较为乐观,但影响粮食安全的社会因素较多,保障粮食安全切不可掉以轻心。     

中国人怎样养活自己

美国世界观察研究所所长莱斯特·布朗(LesterBrown)预测,中国到2030年人口将增加到16亿,而由于经济增长和人均收入增长迅速,食物结构改变也加快,粮食需求将大幅度提高。与此相对应的供给潜力则不乐观:耕地减少的趋势难以避免,因而靠扩大播种面积增加产量的潜力很小;淡水资源短缺将更加严重,单产的提高也是有限的。由此他预言,从20世纪90年代开始,中国粮食产量将以每年0.5%的速度下降,到21世纪30年代,粮食缺口将为2.16亿吨～3.78亿吨。布朗警告说,届时全世界都无力养活中国。面对自然资源的约束,无论是经济学理论,还是国家的发展经验,都为发…     

Towards an Integration of R & D and Marketing in Production Development

Abstract

In this paper, two approaches which are characteristic for Research & Development and Marketing departments are compared. First, R&D versus Marketing orientations are explained, then the major differences between them are presented. The integration of both approaches may improve competitive advantage of the food industry. Factors stimulating such integration are presented on the basis of data from real business circumstances. Innovation is regarded as a major source of competitive advantage of company. Therefore, integration in sensory methodology, that is commonly but differently used by R & D and Marketing departments, may contribute to the improvement of innovation practices and successful business performance. Finally, the role of consumer tests, oriented for marketing and product development, is illustrated.     

The Real of Community,the Desire for Development and the Performance of Egalitarianism in the Peruvian Andes: A Materialist–Utopian Account

The paper proposes a materialist–utopian perspective for explaining the persistence of community in the Andes by drawing upon Lacanian theory and the thought of the Peruvian Marxist José Carlos Mariátegui. What characterizes the Andean comunidad are not notions of belonging and identity, but the existence of a fundamental antagonism (what I call the ‘Real of community’). The argument unfolds ethnographically. Usibamba, a peasant comunidad in the central Peruvian Andes, is known as a highly egalitarian and disciplined comunidad. However, a disjunction exists between deep‐seated aspirations of justice and egalitarianism and the particularistic interests of families and individuals. This disjunction manifests itself in a contradictory, schizophrenic regime of discipline and negotiation that produces ‘split subjects’. Desiring development and the staging of theatrical performances of egalitarianism enables Usibambinos to deal with this disjunction and to present an image of unity and determination. I conclude that the comunidad persists through ‘impossible political acts’ brought about by a residual but growing category of landless comuneros who constitute ‘the part of no part’, the uncounted or unnamed.     

边缘旅游地开发研究——以赤峰市为例

边缘旅游地正逐渐成为旅游发展研究的热点之一;在阐述边缘旅地形成机理的基础上,分析了赤峰市旅游业边缘化的原因及表现;对边缘旅游地赤峰市的旅游业开发进行可行性分析,提出摆脱旅游业边缘化的对策和措施,强调必须紧紧依托周边京津冀辽等核心旅游地,注重区域间的优势互补,借助周围核心旅游地的优势扩大赤峰市的旅游市场,在边缘地树立大旅游观念,同时依据赤峰市自身的资源优势不断开发特色旅游产品、打造品牌,积极培养优秀的旅游人才。     

天津地热资源可持续开发利用对策

天津有着十分丰富的地热资源,至2003年底,已有地热井235眼,年开采量2701万m3。但地热资源利用率最高为62.4%,地热尾水回灌率不到8%,基本是一种粗放的开发利用模式。文章从实现地热资源可持续开发利用角度出发,针对天津地区不同热储层的特征,提出适宜的利用方式,提高地热利用率。而且指出必须走回灌开发道路,增加回灌井,提高回灌率是实现地热资源可持续开发利用的重要保障。     

Projections of maize yield vulnerability to droughts and adaptation options in Uganda

Sub-Saharan Africa is likely going to experience more intense and frequent droughts with high parallel possibilities of ramifications on maize yields. While there is a lot of scholarship dwelling on the ramifications of droughts on maize yields at the level of Africa, little has been researched at lower scales. This study presents past (1960–2014) vulnerability of maize yields to droughts based on a previous study (Epule et al., 2017) and projects the future vulnerability of maize yields to droughts by calculating the sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of maize yields to droughts for the period 2015–2050. The results show that maize yields are more vulnerable in the north of Uganda for the period 1960–2014. However, adaptive capacity is higher in the south. Maize yields also record higher levels of sensitivity and exposure in the north with the latter patterns explained by variations in precipitation, temperature, rich volcanic soils, access to rivers and lakes. In terms of future vulnerability for the period 2015–2050, this study shows that the level of vulnerability of maize yields to droughts in Uganda will increase to levels higher than what currently obtains. For example, the vulnerability index will increase from 0.54 under the 1.5 °C to 0.70 under the 2.0 °C and to 1.54 under the 2.5 °C scenario. Sensitivity is also likely to increase while exposure and adaptive capacity are most likely to remain the same. Overall, it can be said that the future of maize production in Uganda under present and future circumstances remains very bleak without concrete actions. As a way forward, land use policy designers will have to integrate water management, agroforestry, climatic information diffusion, training and indigenous knowledge into land use planning decisions in the context of agriculture.     

The role of knowledge,attitudes and perceptions in the uptake of agricultural and agroforestry innovations among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa

Despite the great potential of agricultural innovations, the uptake by smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa seems to be slow. We reviewed existing theories and frameworks for the uptake of agricultural innovations and found that these tend to emphasize the role of extrinsic factors such as the characteristics of the adopter and the external environment in the decision-making process. In this paper, we argue that intrinsic factors such as the knowledge, perceptions and attitudes of the potential adopter towards the innovation play a key role, but this has been less studied. We present an analytical framework that combines both extrinsic and intrinsic factors in farmers' decisions to adopt new agricultural technologies and apply the framework to agroforestry adoption as a case study. We review the literature on agroforestry adoption in sub-Saharan Africa and identify the extrinsic and intrinsic variables affecting the uptake of agroforestry technologies. We conclude that the uptake of agricultural technologies is a complex process influenced by both extrinsic and intrinsic variables, and recommend that future studies aiming to understand the adoption process of agricultural innovations take into account both sets of variables. A mechanistic understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact and drive adoption can help in targeting technologies appropriately to ensure sustainability.     

CAP Subsidies and Productivity of the EU Farms

The paper investigates the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on farm total factor productivity (TFP) in the European Union (EU). We employ a structural semi‐parametric estimation algorithm directly incorporating the effect of subsidies into a model of unobserved productivity. We empirically study the effects using the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) samples for the EU‐15 countries. Our main findings are clear: subsidies impact negatively on farm productivity in the period before the decoupling reform was implemented; after decoupling the effect of subsidies on productivity is more nuanced and in several countries it turned positive.     

Poverty Reduction Effects of Agricultural Technology Adoption: The Case of Improved Cassava Varieties in Nigeria

We use DNA‐fingerprinting to estimate the poverty reduction effect of adoption of improved cassava varieties in Nigeria. We estimate the counterfactual household income distribution of cassava producers by combining farm‐level treatment effects with a market‐level model. Our results suggest that adoption of improved cassava varieties has led to a 4.6 percentage point reduction in poverty, though this is sensitive to the measurement of adoption status. Therefore, accurate measurement of adoption is crucial for a more credible estimate of the poverty reduction effect of adoption. Our analysis also suggests that farmers who are more likely to be adopters are also likely to face higher structural costs. Addressing structural barriers that make improved technologies less profitable for the poor would therefore be important to increase the poverty reduction effect of improved cassava varieties.     

The retention ability of the agricultural landscape in the emergency planning zone of the Temelín nuclear power plant and its changes since the 19th century

Drainage and loss of wetland sites is a major problem of the agricultural landscape, as it reduces the landscape’s ability to retain water, nutrients, matter, and minimize erosion. With this in mind, the issue of the ability of wet sites to retain radionuclides and contaminated water in the case of a radiation accident was studied. In 2013, field research examined the occurrence of wetland retention sites in the emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the Temelín nuclear power plant (NPP; Czech Republic). As data sources, wetland biotopes (European network Natura 2000) were considered; in addition, retention features were field mapped, i.e. landscape elements of a wetland nature not normally considered nationally significant for conservation. Within the emergency zone, 2854.7 ha of wetland biotopes were registered and 318.9 ha retention features mapped. Density of retention sites (in ha/km²) per cadastre (local administrative units) was used to represent their spatial distribution within the zone. For an assessment of possible revitalization measures, leading to an increase in the landscape’s retention ability, spatial changes in the area of retention sites between 2013 and the mid-19th century, a period before extensive drainage of landscape occurred and a simplification of its structure, were mapped. Historic land maps (The Imperial Obligatory Imprints of the Stable Cadastre) were used as a basis of information on the occurrence and area of fens and wet meadows (4771.5 ha).For spatial comparisons of drained and undrained landscape in the past and present, the density of retention sites per cadastre was calculated. In the mid-19th century, 80% of cadastres had a density of retention sites exceeded 5 ha/km²; in 2013 only 40% of cadastres achieved this. In the most part, drained areas of the zone belong to the central part (around the power plant), as well as the EPZ’s eastern and south-eastern regions. From the density maps of retention sites, as well as from the stable cadastre imprints, it is possible to identify areas and retention features suitable for wetland restoration, thus leading to an increase in the retention capacity of the landscape in terms of water and radionuclide retention. Suggestions as to how to restore and turn retention features into semi-natural wetlands, as well as integrating small wetlands into an agriculture landscape are outlined.