中美贸易摩擦对中国林木产品贸易的影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

美国是中国林木产品第一大出口目的国和第三大进口来源国,然而愈演愈烈的中美贸易摩擦严重威胁双边林木产品贸易的正常秩序。文章借助GTAP模型,模拟分析了中美贸易摩擦背景下两国相互加征关税对双边林木产品贸易的影响,结果显示:①如果中美双边贸易摩擦不进一步升级,林木产业不被进一步加征关税,中国的林木产业将间接受益,实现产出和出口的扩张,而美国的林木产业产出与出口则将小幅受损。②如果中美贸易摩擦进一步升级至对来自对方的全部进口商品加征25%关税,则中国林木产业的产出和贸易盈余都将因失去美国部分市场而萎缩,而美国林木产业则会因进口减少引致的进口替代效应实现产出和贸易盈余的增加。③就林木产业而言,中国对美国的依赖要高于美国对中国的依赖,在对等的关税大战下,中国林木产业的受损程度将更高。     

关于中美农产品贸易结构的实证分析

本文通过产业内贸易指数、显性比较优势指数、出口产品相似度指数和出口产品分散度指数,对中美农产品贸易结构进行了实证分析,认为中美两国农产品贸易潜力较大,两国应本着互惠互利原则调整农产品贸易政策,使农产品贸易取得应有的地位。     

中美贸易摩擦对我国大豆产业的影响分析

正自3月23日起,中美贸易摩擦不断升级,7月6日美国对价值340亿美元中国商品加征进口关税,作为反制措施,我国也对美国同等价值商品加征关税,其中就包括大豆等主要农产品。美国大豆进口成本提高25%,国内厂商停止采购美国大豆,导致进口需求受阻。如果中美贸易摩擦持续,预计今年12月至明年3月我国大豆进口量将大幅减少,需要通过调整饲料配方减少豆粕需求,增加蛋白粕进口来源     

中美粮食贸易结构分析与建议

中美粮食贸易规模逐渐增大却摩擦频发,深刻影响到我国粮食安全。本文对2002至2017年的中美粮食贸易数据进行系统梳理,研究两国粮食贸易的现状,并运用RCA指数、产业贸易互补指数和贸易结合度指数分析中美粮食贸易结构。结果表明,中国粮食贸易处于劣势地位,美国处于优势地位,而中美粮食贸易逆差将持续增大。最后,本文结合上述研究结论,为中国粮食贸易的健康发展提供政策性建议。     

中美农产品贸易增长特征及其成因探析

本文通过CMS恒定市场份额分析模型分析了中美1992—2003年农产品贸易增长情况及其成因,结果表明两国旺盛的市场需求共同推动了农产品贸易的增长,同时,中国对美出口农产品以竞争力提升贡献最大,而从美国进口农产品快速增加主要原因是美国农产品出口结构转换能力较强,其出口结构适应了我国近年来产品需求结构变化。本文还提出了扩大对美农产品出口应采取继续提升竞争力并有效推动结构转移的发展策略。     

韩俊:中国有能力有信心保障农产品供给

<正>随着美方日前对约2000亿美元中国输美商品加征25%关税,中国对自美进口的部分农产品再次采取反制措施。自中美贸易战以来,农产品进出口一直受各方高度关切。加征关税对中美两国农业带来哪些影响?进口大豆缺口如何弥补?国内食品价格是否会因此上涨?日前,中央农村工作领导小组办公室副主任、农业农村部副部长韩俊就相关问题接受了记者采访。     

中国农产品非关税贸易措施的保护效果研究

本文结合最新文献,运用贸易限制指数(TRI)研究方法,采用1995—2010年的HS6分位农产品进口数据,分析了中国农产品非关税贸易措施的进口数量限制效果,并将其转化关税等值,构建不同农产品整合程度的贸易限制指数,对中国农产品非关税贸易措施的进口限制效果进行了整体和分类的全面考察。为中国非关税贸易措施在农业贸易领域的应用和调整以及今后的国际比较和贸易谈判提供依据。     

中美贸易摩擦对我国粮食市场的影响及侧面警示

粮食贸易被视为中美贸易的"均衡器",成为影响中美经贸不容忽视的范畴。随着中美贸易摩擦的升级,中国采取对包括大豆在内的农产品加征关税的反制措施。从对我国粮食市场影响看,贸易摩擦的重要角力点在大豆,将会引发我国大豆供给结构发生变化;小麦、玉米和稻米市场受中美贸易摩擦影响则不大。此次中美贸易摩擦虽不足以对我国的粮食市场产生实质性影响,但也从侧面警示我们:为了规避粮食外部供给的不确定性对粮食市场的影响,要提高粮食综合生产能力、优化粮食种植结构,把握好适度进口的时间与空间提高国际市场粮源掌控能力,实现由粮食生产大国向粮食产业强国的转变。     

中美两国粮食贸易特征及其竞争力分析

随着中美两国粮食贸易关系的增强,学者对两国农产品贸易方式的研究一直是当下的热点。因为从经济结构来看,中国同美国之间有很大区别,而且从口粮消费的组成来看,中美也有不小差距,所以,针对农产品贸易而言,两国具有结构不协调问题;当下两国的农产品贸易还未形成较大规模,究其根源,人们对农产品存在质量方面的不同需求,却不是相关的消费偏好问题。还有学者借助贸易指数对两国贸易情况进行计算,认为中美在相关贸易方面,竞争性较弱而互补性较强。从现有文献看,目前对两国农产品贸易各细分品类的贸易特点研究较少,尤其对双边农产品贸易的重点品种——粮食,对中美粮食贸易历史演进、影响因素和结构变动的研究尚属不足。为此,本文依据2010—2016年粮食贸易的相关资料,运用产业内贸易指数和互补性指数,对两国不同种类粮食贸易特点和结构的研究与探讨,立足于这些特点确定与其相应的贸易方式和贸易策略,以推动两国粮食贸易更加精细化发展。     

中美农产品贸易互补性研究

无论是从现在的全球经济格局来看,还是从将来的世界经济发展走势观察,美国是全球最大的农产品出口国,而中国正好是世界农业大国,在世界跨国贸易关系中,中美农产品贸易具有很强的互补性.但是近年来,中美两国农产品贸易不断呈现新特点,存在的争端同样是中美双边贸易摩擦的焦点.面临日益激烈的竞争,必需做到对症下药,才能取得最大的胜利.     

碳关税的征收对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应分析

发达国家以保护全球环境为名提出了有关碳关税的政策,但是结合碳关税的相关政策内容来看,其动机是为了抑制发展中国家高能耗产品的出口,以便保证自身高能耗产品在国际的地位。我国身为纸制品出口贸易大国,一旦实行碳关税政策,将会对经济发展带来严重影响,基于此本文分析碳关税对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应具有十分重要的意义。     

Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data

Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main products exported by the US to different countries. For imports we used monthly series of the principal products imported by the US from Canada, the major source of imports. The strongest evidence was obtained by pooling the data across countries and products. In the short run, exports were very elastic with respect to the exchange rate (−2.6), while imports were moderately elastic (1.2). In the long run, the elasticity decreased but remained significant (0.5 for both exports and imports). Appreciation of the US dollar tended to matter more than depreciation, but the hypothesis that the effect of exchange rate was symmetric could not be rejected.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?

Based on a novel, detailed, time‐consistent tariff database taking account of import protection developments in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalisation over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalisation took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。     

Agricultural trade in North America: Trade creation, regionalism and regionalisation

Trade creation in agricultural products is defined as a statistically significant positive break in the trend function of the growth in exports and imports between member countries. The present study attempts to determine the time of any break in the trend of real exports and imports between the Canada–USA Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member countries for the years 1980:I through 1999:II, and document the scale of the phenomenon. The present study finds trade creation only occurs in USA agricultural exports to Canada because of CUSTA. The results confirm the theory that the regionalism of NAFTA did not lead to regionalisation or an increasing share of intraregional international trade.     

The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements

According to World Trade Organization rules, countries may adopt regulations under the Agreements on Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). We analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade. The inventory approach suggests that European countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all OECD countries. Using a gravity equation, we also estimate their stringency. Our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries' exports to OECD countries, but do not affect trade between OECD members. Furthermore, European imports are more negatively influenced by SPS and TBTs than imports of other OECD countries.     

中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易现状及潜力评价基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

目的 文章利用2004—2017年乌鲁木齐海关数据，研究中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易的现状、互补性及影响因素，挖掘中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易潜力，为进一步拓展双方农产品贸易提出建议。方法 采用产业内贸易指数和引力模型进行实证分析。结果 中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易规模总体处于增长态势，但贸易联系紧密度不高；中国新疆以出口水果、蔬菜等劳动密集型农产品为主，哈萨克斯坦主要出口畜产品、棉麻丝等资源密集型农产品；农产品贸易整体属于产业内贸易，在九大类细分农产品领域存在各自竞争优势，双方贸易需求基本没有重叠，互补性较强；双方经济总量、人口规模、农产品贸易联系紧密程度、空间距离等是影响农产品双边贸易的重要因素。结论 中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易潜力总体呈现增长趋势，尤其在“一带一路”倡议提出后，双方贸易潜力提升幅度明显。     

我国特色果蔬国际贸易中存在的技术壁垒问题探析

我国是农业大国,农产品的国际贸易对我国经济发展具有较大的影响。随着我国农产品贸易出口量的增加,国外许多国家,尤其是发达国家开始制定许多措施来限制我国农产品的出口,其中技术壁垒对我国农产品出口产生很大的阻碍。为了更好地促进农产品贸易发展,我国逐渐将特色果蔬作为农产品贸易的主要竞争力,特色果蔬不仅具有较高的经济效益,其区域特色、品质特色及丰富的营养结构等优势更是顺应了消费者对农产品质量要求越来越高的新变化。文章通过阐述特色农产品与技术壁垒等的相关概念,进而分析我国特色果蔬国际贸易发展存在的相关问题,从不利与有利因素来研究技术壁垒对我国特色果蔬国际贸易带来的影响,以此为我国特色果蔬贸易的发展提出以下几点政策建议:(1)提高特色果蔬产品质量安全水平;(2)完善特色果蔬质量标准体系建设;(3)实现特色果蔬集约化生产与运输。     

The impact of agricultural productivity increases in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe on world agricultural markets

This paper studies the impact of productivity increases in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe on world agricultural markets and the regions’ bilateral and sectoral agricultural trade flows. We use a six‐region, 13‐sector general equilibrium model. We find that productivity increases lead to a significant increase in the regions’ agricultural output and exports and the former Soviet Union's agricultural imports. The former Soviet Union's net agricultural imports increase, whereas Eastern Europe's net agricultural trade balances improve. Overall, agricultural exporters will benefit, particularly, if productivity increases are not limited to or disproportionally high in agriculture.     

Trade Elasticity,Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry

We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.