盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

基于可拓综合评价法的干旱区水资源承载力评价——以河西走廊地区为例

[目的]水资源是经济社会发展依赖的重要资源,水资源短缺是制约干旱区经济社会发展的瓶颈。通过研究,了解河西走廊干旱区水资源可持续开发利用状况,实现该区域社会经济良性发展。[方法]文章构建了水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用可拓综合评价法对河西走廊地区真实情景期(2003~2015年)、仿真情景期(2016~2025年)的水资源承载力进行测评。[结果](1)2003~2015年,河西走廊地区5市水资源承载力综合水平总体上呈波动上升趋势,武威市从强赤字承载波动上升为弱赤字承载。金昌、张掖、酒泉、嘉峪关从强赤字承载过渡到临界承载状态。(2)2016~2025年,水资源承载力综合水平呈逐步上升态势,武威和张掖从临界承载逐步上升为盈余可承载,金昌和酒泉由临界承载逐渐演变为基本可承载,而嘉峪关的综合水平虽然一直处于强赤字承载,但对应的关联度已经从2016年的-0.073下降为2025年的-0.259。[结论]农业用水量比重大,农业生产效益低下,水资源开发利用率高,成为制约该区域水资源可持续开发利用的瓶颈。     

基于WDO-PP模型的文山州近10年水资源承载力评价

利用6个典型测试函数对新型优化算法——风力驱动优化(WDO)算法进行仿真验证,将仿真结果与布谷鸟搜索(CS)算法、差分进化(DE)算法、混合蛙跳算法(SFLA)、粒子群优化(PSO)算法、蚁群优化(ACO)算法、帝国竞争算法(ICA)和模拟退火算法(SA)的寻优结果进行比较。选取水资源开发利用率、降水量等10个评价指标,运用风力驱动投影寻踪(WDO-PP)模型计算文山州2006—2015年的水资源承载力,并对其变化趋势及规划水平年2020年、2030年水资源承载力进行预测及评价分析。结果表明:1无论是单峰还是多峰函数,WDO算法寻优效果远优于CS、DE、SFLA、PSO、ACO、ICA和SA算法,具有较好的寻优精度、收敛速度、极值寻优能力以及收敛稳定性与可靠性。2文山州2006—2014年水资源承载力评价结果均为基本可承载(Ⅲ级),2015年评价结果为可承载(Ⅱ级)。水资源承载力随时间呈提升趋势,且提升趋势显著。规划水平年2020年、2030年水资源承载力预测评价结果分别为可承载(Ⅱ级)和绝对可承载(Ⅰ级)。     

济南市水资源承载力系统动力学模拟研究

运用系统动力学原理,在全面分析济南市水资源承载力系统的基础上,建立了水资源承载力系统动力学模型,模拟了在自然延续型、经济发展型、节水型、协调发展型4种方案下济南市2001～2020年水资源承载力的动态变化。结果表明,协调发展型方案是提高济南市水资源承载力,保证社会、经济与环境协调发展的最可行方案,该方案下模拟的2020年济南市水资源可承载的工业总产值和城镇人口分别为4 989.21亿元和515.55万人。     

河北连片特困区脆弱生态环境与贫困耦合关系演变及预测模拟

［目的］开展连片特困区脆弱生态环境和贫困耦合关系的演变及预测模拟研究，为研究区统筹扶贫开发与生态环境保护提供政策依据。［方法］通过构建生态环境和贫困评价体系，运用系统耦合模型和GM（1，1）预测模型，对1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年研究区脆弱生态环境与贫困耦合关系演变进行了分析，并对2020年、2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年研究区两系统耦合关系进行了预测模拟。［结果］（1）1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年河北连片特困区贫困度指数呈下降趋势，由0902下降到0761，生态环境脆弱性指数略有下降，由0438下降到0412。（2）1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年河北连片特困区贫困和生态环境耦合类型由拮抗时期过渡到磨合阶段，协调类型由轻度失调型转变为濒临衰退型。低水平耦合县主要分布集中在太行山北部山区，耦合协调度呈现“两头高、中间低”的分布特征，北部燕山山区和南部太行山山区各县耦合协调度普遍较高。（3）2020年、2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年研究区域生态环境脆弱性指数和贫困度指数都在降低，两者的耦合度在不断提高，耦合类型处于磨合阶段，接近于高水平耦合，耦合协调度在不断降低，协调类型由濒临衰退型过渡到勉强协调型。［结论］快速提高片区经济发展水平是片区生态环境与经济协调发展的关键。     

基于协调发展度的南通市水资源承载状态预警

为了有效保障南通市水安全,降低经济社会发展进程中的水资源承载风险,基于社会经济系统与水资源系统之间的动态反馈机制,构建了考虑供水与排污约束的南通市水资源-社会经济-生态环境系统动力学模型;选取协调发展度为预警指标,提出了综合考虑预警指标预测值和指标下一年变化趋势的警情确定方法。预警结果显示,南通市目前的发展模式在前期取得了良好的成果,但随着时间的推移,水资源承载状态由Ⅳ级预警上升为Ⅲ级预警,水资源承载状态变差,需及时调整发展方向,未来应进一步提高用水效率并加强对点源污染与面源污染的治理。     

中国城镇化和水资源利用的协调性分析*——基于熵变方程法和状态协调度函数

［目的］通过研究2007—2016年城镇化和水资源利用的协调性，为两者协调发展提供政策建议。［方法］利用熵变方程法和状态协调度函数实证分析。［结果］(1)基于熵变方程法得到的相对协调度结果与利用状态协调度函数测算的静态协调度结果基本一致，目前我国城镇化与水资源利用逼近或处于协调发展状态，但在2009—2011年两者动态协调度偏离了协调发展轨迹。(2)3类城市中地级以上城市城镇化与水资源利用目前处于协调发展状态，两者动态协调度一直处于协调发展的轨迹上，地级市和县级市城镇化与水资源利用则处于基本协调状态，尚未达到协调状态，即目前城镇化发展的同时，水资源利用情况出现了小幅恶化，且2类城市动态协调度分别在2009—2012年和2009—2011年偏离了协调发展轨迹。［结论］我国尤其是地级市和县级市需要统筹城镇化发展与水资源利用，既需提升城镇化质量，又需进一步贯彻执行水资源管理法规，捋顺其管理体制，完善水资源价格形成机制以及污水处理收费制度，构建多渠道的水资源循环利用机制，达到城镇化进程中水资源可持续利用。     

江苏沿海地区水资源承载力研究——以盐城市为例

区域水资源承载力是进行生态环境建设和确定社会经济发展的基础。根据水资源承载能力评价指标体系建立的原则,将盐城市发展分为水资源、社会经济以及生态环境3个子系统,构建了水资源承载力模糊综合评价模型,并应用该模型对盐城市水资源进行综合评价。结果表明:盐城市水资源开发利用已达到相当规模,在现有经济技术条件下,该地区的水资源承载潜力已相对较小,水资源供需矛盾突出。提出提高水资源承载力的对策,为该区域今后水资源开发利用提供依据。     

基于MCR与CA的城市开发边界融合划定研究——以徐州市为例

研究目的：探索基于MCR和CA模型的城市开发边界划定技术方法体系，为区域国土空间规划提供参考。研究方法：夜间灯光与遥感指数融合法、MCR模型、CA-Markov模型。研究结果：（1）2005年、2010年和2015年徐州市建成区规模分别为213.15 km2、322.18 km2和443.25 km2，并呈现向东部和东南方向扩张的特征。（2）基于MCR模型从现实供给视角划定的徐州市2020年、2025年和2030年城市开发边界规模分别为544.54 km2、635.35 km2和716.63 km2；基于CA-Markov模型从理想需求视角划定的徐州市2020年、2025年和2030年城市开发边界规模分别为555.26 km2、655.94 km2和736.23 km2。（3）本文权衡推荐两种方法的融合结果，即规模为529.69 km2、589.36 km2和698.98 km2的空间范围作为2020年、2025年和2030年徐州市城市开发边界。研究结论：根据供需平衡原理，从现实供给和理想需求不同视角构建MCR模型与CA模型融合划定的城市开发边界，符合以徐州市为代表的成长发育型城市空间扩张的规律，能够科学优化城市开发格局，有效解决城市发展与农地保护矛盾，为规划实践提供方法参考和决策依据。     

南京市水资源与社会经济耦合协调发展研究

水资源是支撑社会经济可持续发展的重要物质基础,水资源的可持续利用是水资源与社会经济和谐发展的必要条件。基于水资源-社会经济复杂系统,构建了水资源与社会经济耦合协调发展的评价指标体系,采用全排列综合图示法测算了2007—2014年南京市水资源系统和社会经济系统的综合发展评价指数,并利用耦合协调度模型测算了两系统间的耦合协调度。结果表明,南京市逐步由严重失调衰退状态向勉强协调发展状态过渡。利用多边形图示法分别对水资源系统和社会经济系统的发展动态进行了分析,并针对发展过程中的问题提出合理的建议。     

Towards an Integration of R & D and Marketing in Production Development

Abstract

In this paper, two approaches which are characteristic for Research & Development and Marketing departments are compared. First, R&D versus Marketing orientations are explained, then the major differences between them are presented. The integration of both approaches may improve competitive advantage of the food industry. Factors stimulating such integration are presented on the basis of data from real business circumstances. Innovation is regarded as a major source of competitive advantage of company. Therefore, integration in sensory methodology, that is commonly but differently used by R & D and Marketing departments, may contribute to the improvement of innovation practices and successful business performance. Finally, the role of consumer tests, oriented for marketing and product development, is illustrated.     

The Real of Community,the Desire for Development and the Performance of Egalitarianism in the Peruvian Andes: A Materialist–Utopian Account

The paper proposes a materialist–utopian perspective for explaining the persistence of community in the Andes by drawing upon Lacanian theory and the thought of the Peruvian Marxist José Carlos Mariátegui. What characterizes the Andean comunidad are not notions of belonging and identity, but the existence of a fundamental antagonism (what I call the ‘Real of community’). The argument unfolds ethnographically. Usibamba, a peasant comunidad in the central Peruvian Andes, is known as a highly egalitarian and disciplined comunidad. However, a disjunction exists between deep‐seated aspirations of justice and egalitarianism and the particularistic interests of families and individuals. This disjunction manifests itself in a contradictory, schizophrenic regime of discipline and negotiation that produces ‘split subjects’. Desiring development and the staging of theatrical performances of egalitarianism enables Usibambinos to deal with this disjunction and to present an image of unity and determination. I conclude that the comunidad persists through ‘impossible political acts’ brought about by a residual but growing category of landless comuneros who constitute ‘the part of no part’, the uncounted or unnamed.     

边缘旅游地开发研究——以赤峰市为例

边缘旅游地正逐渐成为旅游发展研究的热点之一;在阐述边缘旅地形成机理的基础上,分析了赤峰市旅游业边缘化的原因及表现;对边缘旅游地赤峰市的旅游业开发进行可行性分析,提出摆脱旅游业边缘化的对策和措施,强调必须紧紧依托周边京津冀辽等核心旅游地,注重区域间的优势互补,借助周围核心旅游地的优势扩大赤峰市的旅游市场,在边缘地树立大旅游观念,同时依据赤峰市自身的资源优势不断开发特色旅游产品、打造品牌,积极培养优秀的旅游人才。     

天津地热资源可持续开发利用对策

天津有着十分丰富的地热资源,至2003年底,已有地热井235眼,年开采量2701万m3。但地热资源利用率最高为62.4%,地热尾水回灌率不到8%,基本是一种粗放的开发利用模式。文章从实现地热资源可持续开发利用角度出发,针对天津地区不同热储层的特征,提出适宜的利用方式,提高地热利用率。而且指出必须走回灌开发道路,增加回灌井,提高回灌率是实现地热资源可持续开发利用的重要保障。     

Projections of maize yield vulnerability to droughts and adaptation options in Uganda

Sub-Saharan Africa is likely going to experience more intense and frequent droughts with high parallel possibilities of ramifications on maize yields. While there is a lot of scholarship dwelling on the ramifications of droughts on maize yields at the level of Africa, little has been researched at lower scales. This study presents past (1960–2014) vulnerability of maize yields to droughts based on a previous study (Epule et al., 2017) and projects the future vulnerability of maize yields to droughts by calculating the sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of maize yields to droughts for the period 2015–2050. The results show that maize yields are more vulnerable in the north of Uganda for the period 1960–2014. However, adaptive capacity is higher in the south. Maize yields also record higher levels of sensitivity and exposure in the north with the latter patterns explained by variations in precipitation, temperature, rich volcanic soils, access to rivers and lakes. In terms of future vulnerability for the period 2015–2050, this study shows that the level of vulnerability of maize yields to droughts in Uganda will increase to levels higher than what currently obtains. For example, the vulnerability index will increase from 0.54 under the 1.5 °C to 0.70 under the 2.0 °C and to 1.54 under the 2.5 °C scenario. Sensitivity is also likely to increase while exposure and adaptive capacity are most likely to remain the same. Overall, it can be said that the future of maize production in Uganda under present and future circumstances remains very bleak without concrete actions. As a way forward, land use policy designers will have to integrate water management, agroforestry, climatic information diffusion, training and indigenous knowledge into land use planning decisions in the context of agriculture.     

The role of knowledge,attitudes and perceptions in the uptake of agricultural and agroforestry innovations among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa

Despite the great potential of agricultural innovations, the uptake by smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa seems to be slow. We reviewed existing theories and frameworks for the uptake of agricultural innovations and found that these tend to emphasize the role of extrinsic factors such as the characteristics of the adopter and the external environment in the decision-making process. In this paper, we argue that intrinsic factors such as the knowledge, perceptions and attitudes of the potential adopter towards the innovation play a key role, but this has been less studied. We present an analytical framework that combines both extrinsic and intrinsic factors in farmers' decisions to adopt new agricultural technologies and apply the framework to agroforestry adoption as a case study. We review the literature on agroforestry adoption in sub-Saharan Africa and identify the extrinsic and intrinsic variables affecting the uptake of agroforestry technologies. We conclude that the uptake of agricultural technologies is a complex process influenced by both extrinsic and intrinsic variables, and recommend that future studies aiming to understand the adoption process of agricultural innovations take into account both sets of variables. A mechanistic understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact and drive adoption can help in targeting technologies appropriately to ensure sustainability.     

CAP Subsidies and Productivity of the EU Farms

The paper investigates the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on farm total factor productivity (TFP) in the European Union (EU). We employ a structural semi‐parametric estimation algorithm directly incorporating the effect of subsidies into a model of unobserved productivity. We empirically study the effects using the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) samples for the EU‐15 countries. Our main findings are clear: subsidies impact negatively on farm productivity in the period before the decoupling reform was implemented; after decoupling the effect of subsidies on productivity is more nuanced and in several countries it turned positive.     

Poverty Reduction Effects of Agricultural Technology Adoption: The Case of Improved Cassava Varieties in Nigeria

We use DNA‐fingerprinting to estimate the poverty reduction effect of adoption of improved cassava varieties in Nigeria. We estimate the counterfactual household income distribution of cassava producers by combining farm‐level treatment effects with a market‐level model. Our results suggest that adoption of improved cassava varieties has led to a 4.6 percentage point reduction in poverty, though this is sensitive to the measurement of adoption status. Therefore, accurate measurement of adoption is crucial for a more credible estimate of the poverty reduction effect of adoption. Our analysis also suggests that farmers who are more likely to be adopters are also likely to face higher structural costs. Addressing structural barriers that make improved technologies less profitable for the poor would therefore be important to increase the poverty reduction effect of improved cassava varieties.     

The retention ability of the agricultural landscape in the emergency planning zone of the Temelín nuclear power plant and its changes since the 19th century

Drainage and loss of wetland sites is a major problem of the agricultural landscape, as it reduces the landscape’s ability to retain water, nutrients, matter, and minimize erosion. With this in mind, the issue of the ability of wet sites to retain radionuclides and contaminated water in the case of a radiation accident was studied. In 2013, field research examined the occurrence of wetland retention sites in the emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the Temelín nuclear power plant (NPP; Czech Republic). As data sources, wetland biotopes (European network Natura 2000) were considered; in addition, retention features were field mapped, i.e. landscape elements of a wetland nature not normally considered nationally significant for conservation. Within the emergency zone, 2854.7 ha of wetland biotopes were registered and 318.9 ha retention features mapped. Density of retention sites (in ha/km²) per cadastre (local administrative units) was used to represent their spatial distribution within the zone. For an assessment of possible revitalization measures, leading to an increase in the landscape’s retention ability, spatial changes in the area of retention sites between 2013 and the mid-19th century, a period before extensive drainage of landscape occurred and a simplification of its structure, were mapped. Historic land maps (The Imperial Obligatory Imprints of the Stable Cadastre) were used as a basis of information on the occurrence and area of fens and wet meadows (4771.5 ha).For spatial comparisons of drained and undrained landscape in the past and present, the density of retention sites per cadastre was calculated. In the mid-19th century, 80% of cadastres had a density of retention sites exceeded 5 ha/km²; in 2013 only 40% of cadastres achieved this. In the most part, drained areas of the zone belong to the central part (around the power plant), as well as the EPZ’s eastern and south-eastern regions. From the density maps of retention sites, as well as from the stable cadastre imprints, it is possible to identify areas and retention features suitable for wetland restoration, thus leading to an increase in the retention capacity of the landscape in terms of water and radionuclide retention. Suggestions as to how to restore and turn retention features into semi-natural wetlands, as well as integrating small wetlands into an agriculture landscape are outlined.