The U.S. Sugar Policy Reforms and World Sugar Trade

This article incorporates the U.S. sugar policy instruments in a spatial Nash equilibrium model of world sugar trade and simulates the consequences of the U.S. sugar policy reforms on sugar trade among major producing and consuming regions of the world. The results show that policy reforms which eliminate import barriers by the U.S. can lead to major changes in the directions and volumes of sugar trade. Specifically, U.S. sugar imports would increase but domestic production and consumer prices would decline. Several regions in the developing world would increase their shares of the world sugar export trade.     

Alternative U.S. and EU Sugar Trade Liberalization Policies and Their Implications

This study analyzes the impacts of alternative trade liberalization policies in the United States and the European Union (EU) on the U.S. sugar industry. A global sugar policy simulation model was used for this analysis. The study results indicate that the U.S. sugar industry may be able to survive if both the United States and the EU liberalize their sugar trade. However, if only the United States eliminates its sugar programs, all U.S. sugar-producing regions would be threatened.     

Issues Affecting the U.S. Poultry Industry and International Poultry Trade

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine issues and concerns that may affect the future direction of the U.S. poultry industry and international poultry trade. Given the economic contribution of the poultry industry, it is important to have some understanding about the future direction of the industry, both at the national and international levels. To generate the information required, this study surveyed the top poultry producers in the country as well as specialists and experts in the industry. Although both the producers and specialists believe that the industry has a bright future, they also think that the rapid production growth experienced by the poultry industry in the past two decades cannot be sustained. Growth restrictions in the industry will come from a variety of sources such as environmental waste management, food safety, labor shortages, animal welfare, and increased foreign competition.     

An Assessment of Partial Dairy Trade Liberalization on the U.S., EU–15 and Canada

The next round of multilateral trade negotiations will involve the expansion of tariff rate quotas and the reduction of export subsidies in the dairy industry. A nonspatial multiregion model of the world dairy industry is used to analyze the potential impact of such reforms on the Canadian, the EU–15 and the U.S. dairy industries. The results from selected partial trade liberalization scenarios indicate that there is no scenario that provides benefits to all participants in the dairy industry. The analysis of partial trade liberalization, in terms of its growth effects, varies by country and by sector, making win–win compromises hard to reach among the participants in a country, and even more so across countries. More market-oriented though still protected regions such as the U.S. generally improve their competitive position in the world dairy market as border measures are removed. By contrast, the dairy sectors in regulated milk production markets such Canada and the EU–15 are projected to be better off when the reform package does not compromise current policy settings, while giving some additional market access for surplus dairy production. La prochaine ronde de négotiations commerciales mullilalérales abordera les questions de l'expansions des contingents tarifaires et la réduction des subventions à l'exportation dans le secteur laitier. Utilisant un modèle multirégion non spatial du secteur laitier mondial, nous analysons les répercussions évenluelles de ces réformes sur les secteurs laitiers du Canada, de l'Union Européenne et des États-Unis. Les résultals obtenus pour certains scénarios de libéralisation partielle des échanges font voir qu'aucun scénario ne profite à tous les participants de lafilière. Les effets de cette libéralisation partielle sur la croissance varient d'un pays et d'un segment de la filière à l'autre, rendanl difficile la recherche d'un compromis salisfaisant pour tous entre les participants d'un même pays el plus encore entre différents les pays. Les régions plus axées sur le marché, malgré un niveau relalivemenl élevé de protections, comme les États-Unis, améliorenl en général leur situation concurrentielle sur le marché mondial lorsque les barrières tarifaires sont enlevées. À l'inverse, les pays où la production du lail est réglement4eAe, comme le Canada el l'Europe des 15, le secteur laitier a tout avanlage à ce que le bloc de réformes ne vienne pas menacer le cadre actuel, tout en ouvrant quelque peu le marché aux productions lailières excédenlaires.     

Effect of Sugar Price Policy on U.S. Imports of Processed Sugar-containing Foods

The relationship between U.S. and world sugar prices, and U.S. import demand for four categories of sugar-containing products is examined. Results from econometric estimation indicate that U.S. intervention in the sugar market has helped to increase U.S. imports of some sugar-containing products, but that increased disposable income has played a more important role. Although some developing countries have benefitted from U.S. sugar policy by increasing their exports of sugar-containing products to the United States, U.S. sugar policy has helped imports from developed countries proportionately more than those from developing countries as a whole.     

The Effects of NAFTA on Trade and Welfare in the U.S. Fresh Tomato Industry

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to measure NAFTA's impact to date and quantify how the producers and consumers of fresh tomatoes in the United States, Canada and Mexico have benefited or lost. Changes in consumer and producer surpluses were calculated in 2001 US dollars based on simulations of two scenarios. The analysis found that U.S. consumers captured $12.1 billion more surplus than they would have captured had NAFTA not been enacted. Mexican fresh tomato producers gained an additional $2.08 billion in surplus due to NAFTA. In contrast to Mexican growers, U.S. and Canadian producers appear not to have benefited economically from NAFTA. Findings suggest that U.S. producers would have earned $3.29 billion more if NAFTA had not gone into effect. Canadian producer surplus with NAFTA was estimated to be approximately $20 million less with NAFTA, and the total net benefit from NAFTA was found to be a positive $10.87 billion.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial‐equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase in 2011/2012 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and a significant contraction of production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non‐OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and the location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non‐OECD countries.     

Changing the U.S. Sugar Program into a Standard Crop Program: Consequences under the North American Free Trade Agreement and Doha

We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a no-cost basis to taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar could accumulate. The replacement of the current sugar program by one similar to other major U.S. crop programs would solve the problem of potential stock accumulation, accommodate further trade liberalization under a new WTO and future bilateral trade agreements, but would induce significant fiscal outlays through direct payments.     

Supply Dynamics in the U.S. Hog Industry

A variety of methods and empirical techniques are now available for estimating dynamic economic relationships. Unfortunately, most dynamic modeling procedures rely heavily on the sample data for specification. This is due to a lack of a priori information useful for determining the appropriate lag structure. However, there is frequently a rich source of information that can be used to define lag structures in agricultural supply models. This information is related to the biological and physiological processes characterizing agricultural production. In this paper, a quarterly econometric model of supply response in the U.S. hog industry is specified and estimated. This model incorporates relevant biological features of hog production directly into the specification. The structural integrity of the model is evaluated by examining post-sample predictive ability and mean-path elasticities. The results indicate performance that is consistent with observed behavior in the U.S. hog industry. Nous disposons aujourd'hui de toute une gamme de méthodes et de techniques empiriques pour ?estimation des rapports économiques dynamiques. Malheureusement, la plupart des méthodes de modélisation dynamique dépendent étroitement, pour leurs spécifications, sur des données échantillonnées. Ceci découle ?un manque ?informations a priori utiles pour la détermination de la structure de retard appropriée. Toutefois, on dispose fréquemment ?une riche source ?informations qui peuvent servir à définir les structures de retard dans les modèles de ?offre en agriculture. Cette information est liée aux processus biologiques et physiologiques caractérisant la production agricole. Dans le présent document, nous procédons à la spécification et à ?estimation ?un modèle économétrique trimestriel du comportement de ?offre dans le secteur américain du pore. Ce modèle incorpore directement dans la spécification les caractéristiques biologiques pertinentes de la production porcine. Nous évaluons ?intégrité structurale du modèle en examinant ?aptitude prédictive post-échantillonnage et les valeurs moyennes ?élasticité. Nos résultats laissent conclure à une performance qui vient corroborer le comportement observé dans le secteur américain du porc.     

中国食糖产业扶持政策效果评估与优化

近年来我国主要农产品国内市场价全面高于进口到岸税后价,国内外价格倒挂成为常态,这一现象在食糖上表现得更为突出.国内资源紧缺、劳动生产率较低、成本不断上升,导致国内食糖产业基础竞争力较弱,迫切需要国家的政策扶持.对目前我国涉及食糖产业的主要扶持政策进行了梳理,在借鉴世界主要国家经验的基础上,对未来我国食糖产业发展的政策选择提出了对策与建议.     

美国棉花产业政策的思考与启示

棉花产业政策是影响棉花产业持续发展的重要因素。本文通过回顾美国棉花产业政策经历的传统政策阶段、政策变革阶段、新政策的调整三个阶段,分析了美国棉花产业政策的特点,揭示了产生的一系列有效调控效应,从中总结出对我们有益的启示与借鉴。     

贸易自由化与中国的农业、贫困和公平

本项研究的目标是分析贸易自由化对中国农业及不同地区农民的农业生产(尤其是贫困农民)的影响，重点计论了中国贸易自由化进程和市场干预的变化与内容。利用CAP-SiM模型分析表明，贸易自由化对中国农业的总体影响利大于弊，但是对贫困农户的不利影响要大得多，贸易自由化可能有助于一些地区缓解贫困，但会恶化另一些地区的收入分配，同时会加剧地区内部农户的收入不均现象。     

U.S. Dairy Policy and the Agreement on Agriculture in the WTO

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and in no way represent those of the institutions they represent. This paper calibrates a stylized national policy model of the U.S. dairy industry to analyze the effects of liberalizing the tariff quota policy. It is important to distinguish in-quota, over-quota, out-of-quota and nonquota imports. A framework to model quota underfill with out-of-quota imports is highlighted. To endogenize quota underfill and still account for out-of-quota imports, one needs to depict the marginal private benefits of imports under the quota and the corresponding marginal cost curve. The total transaction costs of the import quota scheme can be calculated. This framework is well suited for handling shocks because a change in in-quota or out-of-quota tariffs or a shift in the excess supply/demand curves affects marginal benefits, while a change in the quota affects the marginal cost of imports. We show regime switches affect trade liberalization and that a decrease in tariffs or an increase in quotas may have little effect without liberalizing both instruments. A component approach to model the sector has endogenous government-controlled class prices. An increase in imports of one product can result in an increase in the prices of other nontraded dairy products. This is because component prices change and so impact government-controlled class prices. Nous étalonnons un modèle de programme national stylisé du secteur laitier étatsunien pour analyser les effets d'une libéralisation de lapolitique des contingents tarifaires. Il est important de faire la distinction entre importation à l'intérieur du contingent, excédentaire au contingent, hors-contingent et non visée par un contingent. Nous mettons en évidence un cadre pour modéliser la portion non utilisée d'un contingent en présence d'importations hors-contingent. Pour endogénéiser la portion non utilisée d'un contingent tout en gardant en compte les importations hors-contingent, il faut décrire les avantages privés marginaux des importations prévues dans le contingent et la courbe des coûts marginaux correspondants. Les coûts transactionnels totaux des régimes de contingents tarifaires 4aG l'importation peuvent être calculés. Ce cadre convient bien pour absorber les chocs, du fait qu‘un changement des tarifs douaniers imposés aux importations intra-contingent ou aux importations hors-contingent, ou encore un déplacement de la courbe d'offres/demandes excédentaires, se répercute sur les bénéfices marginaux des exportations, alors qu‘un changement du régime de contingentement le fait sur les coûts marginaux. Nous démontrons que des changements de régime influent sur la libéralisation du commerce extérieur et qu'une réduction des tarifs douaniers ou une augmentation des contingents peuvent n'avoir que peu d'effets sans une libéralisation réelle des deux instruments. Une solution utilisant les composants laitiers pour modéliser le secteur comporte un contrôle endogène de l'État sur les prix par catégoric de produits. Un accroissement des importations visant un produit donné peut se propager aux prix d'autres produits laitiers non visés par les échanges commerciaux. Une telle réaction vient du fait que les prix des composants changent et qu'ils peuvent se réverbérer sur les prix par catégorie réglementés par l'État.