The U.S. Sugar Policy Reforms and World Sugar Trade

This article incorporates the U.S. sugar policy instruments in a spatial Nash equilibrium model of world sugar trade and simulates the consequences of the U.S. sugar policy reforms on sugar trade among major producing and consuming regions of the world. The results show that policy reforms which eliminate import barriers by the U.S. can lead to major changes in the directions and volumes of sugar trade. Specifically, U.S. sugar imports would increase but domestic production and consumer prices would decline. Several regions in the developing world would increase their shares of the world sugar export trade.     

The Impact of an EU–US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement on Biofuel and Feedstock Markets

We assess the impact of a potential TTIP bilateral free trade agreement on the EU and US bio‐economies (feedstock, biofuels, by‐products, and related competing crops) and major trade partners in these markets. The analysis develops a multi‐market model that incorporates bilateral trade flows (US to EU, EU to US, and similarly with third countries) and is calibrated to the OECD‐FAO baseline for 2013–2022 to account for recent policy decisions. The major policy reforms from a TTIP involve tariff and TRQ liberalisation and their direct contractionary impact on US sugar supply, EU biofuel production, and indirect negative effect on US high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production. EU sugar and isoglucose production expand along with US ethanol and biodiesel and oilseed crushing. EU sugar would flow to the US, US biofuels and vegetable oil to the EU. We further quantify non‐tariff measures (NTM) affecting these trade flows between the EU and the US. EU oilseed production contracts, and EU crushing expands with improving crushing margins following reduced NTM frictions. Our analysis reveals limited net welfare gains with most net benefits reaped by Brazil and not the two trading partners of the TTIP.     

Changing the U.S. Sugar Program into a Standard Crop Program: Consequences under the North American Free Trade Agreement and Doha

We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a "no-cost" basis to taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar could accumulate. The replacement of the current sugar program by one similar to other major U.S. crop programs would solve the problem of potential stock accumulation, accommodate further trade liberalization under a new WTO and future bilateral trade agreements, but would induce significant fiscal outlays through direct payments.     

The Potential for Increased Trade in Milk and Dairy Products between Canada and the United States under Trade Liberalization

Controversy surrounds the effect of free trade in milk and dairy products between Canada and the United States. A static, nonspatial, synthetic, partial equilibrium model is used to explore this issue. The results show that under any reasonable set of parameter estimates, net trade between Canada and the United States would be small, or zero. Free trade would be accompanied by large welfare losses for the current owners of Canadian milk production quota, but new entrants to the industry would earn more producer surplus under free trade than if they paid the full rental value for production quota under the current supply management policy.     

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial‐equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase in 2011/2012 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and a significant contraction of production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non‐OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and the location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non‐OECD countries.     

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.     

Alternative U.S. and EU Sugar Trade Liberalization Policies and Their Implications

This study analyzes the impacts of alternative trade liberalization policies in the United States and the European Union (EU) on the U.S. sugar industry. A global sugar policy simulation model was used for this analysis. The study results indicate that the U.S. sugar industry may be able to survive if both the United States and the EU liberalize their sugar trade. However, if only the United States eliminates its sugar programs, all U.S. sugar-producing regions would be threatened.     

THE FUTURE OF EEC DAIRY EXPORTS TO THE LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS OF LONG-RANGE PROJECTIONS AND MODEL STUDIES

From recent projection studies it can be concluded that future dairy exports by the EEC to the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) will increase. The self-sufficiency ratio for dairy products in the EEC will increase because of strong, technologically induced, growth of production potential. On the one hand, surplus production in the EEC will be difficult to curtail as the unfavourable conditions of the general economy will impede outmigration of inputs. Import demand, on the other hand, is projected to increase as many populations will be moving into stages of higher growth of income. Thus, input restrictions of agriculture in industrialised countries may be unnecessary. In this paper some agricultural economic aspects of the implied trade relationships are discussed. It is concluded that LDCs are not likely to benefit from gains of trade as predicted by theory of free trade and international specialisation. From projections by model studies, however, no consensus emerged. Projection and model studies seem hardly suited to provide insight in the effects of international trade under conditions of imperfect competition.     

Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry*

During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts.     

从动态比较优势看我国矿产资源产业政策选择

发展中国家根据李嘉图比较优势理论专业化生产并出口具有比较优势的矿产资源并未实现可持续的经济和福利增长 ,说明静态比较优势理论还存在不足。经过对其进行修正 ,构建了动态比较优势模型 ,分析了自由贸易条件下的贸易福利 ,得出了自由贸易导致福利减少的充要条件。最后从动态比较优势理论的角度对我国矿产资源开发利用提出了政策建议     

Profitability Development and Resource Reallocation: The Case of Sugar Beet Farming in Germany

Following the 2006 reform of the European Union sugar market, and in anticipation of the quota abolition, a reallocation of sugar production has occurred. Using a Lowe quantity index, we evaluate the productivity and profitability of sugar beet farming in Germany from 2004 to 2013. The results show that an increase in total factor productivity partly compensated for losses in terms of trade. Moreover, the contribution of production reallocation to sector productivity growth varied across regions with distinct ownership structures of sugar processing companies. These findings have implications for policy and industry, as it transitions to a liberalised market.     

U.S. AND E.E.C. POLICY ATTITUDES COMPARED TOWARDS THE 1977 INTERNATIONAL SUGAR AGREEMENT

The world sugar market is vulnerable to changes in Government domestic support policies: the impact of these policies for the volume of international trade is presented for the decade to 1978. Developments in U. S. and E. E. C. sugar policies and their implications for the world sugar market are analysed. The results of these policies for the negotiation and implementation of the 1977 International Sugar Agreement are examined.     

开放条件下中国糖业安全状况评估及国际比较

糖业是农产品国际贸易中最为敏感的产业之一,在国民经济中有着重要地位。随着我国食糖市场开放程度日益提高,食糖市场所面临的不确定性增加,尤其是近年来我国糖业安全出现的问题已引起社会的广泛关注。本文尝试构建一套评价糖业安全的指标体系以评估我国与世界主要国家的糖业安全状况。研究结果表明我国糖业安全水平较低且呈下降趋势。本文的贡献在于试图提出一个国家层面的糖业安全研究框架。     

THE INFLUENCE OF THE AGRI-MONETARY SYSTEM ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN THE EC: THE CASE OF SUGAR

It is hypothesised that the mechanics of the agri-monetary system impose shocks on EC agricultural markets which influence the Community's agricultural trade flows. A model illustrating links between agri-monetary changes and trade flows of sugar is presented. Empirical tests suggest that agri-monetary changes influence the volume and timing of sugar trade. Hypotheses relating the strength of this influence to self-sufficiency and other factors specific to Member States are discussed, as are the welfare costs of agri-monetary trade distortions. Although these welfare costs are unlikely to spark agrimonetary reform, they could be given consideration in the reform made inevitable by the Single European Market.     

The trade and environment nexus in Mexican agriculture. A general equilibrium analysis

This paper analyzes linkages between growth, trade and the environment in Mexican agriculture with an empirical economy-wide model. The investigation considers trade liberalization, environmental policy reform, and their coordination. The analysis decomposes the change in pollution emission induced by changes in the sectoral composition of production, effects of technology on emission intensity, and aggregate Scale effects. Outward orientation alone induces a contraction of aggregate agricultural output, but promotes growth and pollution in some agricultural sectors. Overall, free trade does not induce wholesale specialization in dirty agricultural activities. Environmental taxes on pollution emitted in agricultural sectors have a moderate negative impact on agricultural output, except for the tax on water-borne toxic chemicals. More liberal trade combined with targeted effluent taxes can achieve significant environmental mitigation and efficiency gains, but with the implication of a contraction of most agricultural sectors.     

Effects of Trade Barriers on U.S. and World Apple Markets

Regional apple demand and supply parameters using Bayesian estimation were utilized to develop a spatial equilibrium model for the world apple market. A baseline scenario with existing tariffs was developed; a reduced tariff and free trade scenarios were simulated. Comparison of these scenarios with the baseline shows that apple trade is significantly greater under trade liberalization. China increases its exports by 174% under free trade and replaces France as the largest exporter. U.S. exports increased by about 140% to all regions except to Canada and Southeast Asia. Results confirm the importance of transportation costs and the interlinkages of prices in the world market in determining the trade flows.
Nous avons utilisé des paramètres régionaux de l'offre et de la demande de pomme, déterminés à l'aide d'une estimation bayésienne, pour élaborer un modèle d'équilibre spatial du marché mondial de la pomme. Nous avons élaboré un scénario de base utilisant des tarifs douaniers existants et nous avons simulé des scénarios utilisant des tarifs douaniers réduits et le libre-échange. Une comparaison de ces scénarios avec le scénario de base montre que le commerce de la pomme est significativement plus important dans un contexte de libéralisation des échanges. La Chine augmente ses exportations de 174 p. 100 dans un contexte de libre-échange et détrône la France en tant que premier exportateur mondial. Les exportations des États-Unis augmentent d'environ 140 p. 100 dans toutes les régions sauf au Canada et en Asie du Sud-Est. Les résultats confirment l'importance des coûts de transport et des liens entre les prix sur le marché mondial dans la détermination du flux des échanges commerciaux.     

Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

甜菜成品糖浊度影响因素分析

本文详细分析了影响甜菜成品糖浊度的主要因素,探讨了甜菜原料、制糖设备的管理、甜菜制糖工艺过程及制糖检测等因素对成品糖浊度的影响,并提出控制手段和方法,对降低糖厂成品糖浊度有一定的指导和借鉴作用。     

乡村振兴战略背景下云南新平西尼传统手工红糖的发展建议

本文通过对西尼传统手工红糖生产情况进行调研,阐述了西尼传统手工红糖的生产现状,分析了生产经营中存在的问题,提出了在乡村振兴战略背景下西尼传统手工红糖的发展建议.