The Evolving Structure of Chinese R&D Funding and its Implications for the Productivity of Agricultural Biotechnology Research

China’s research and development (R&D) policy has changed considerably over recent decades, and great changes occurred in 2006 when the main programme objective of China’s R&D changed from the 863 Programme and 973 Programme to the National Science and Technology Major Project. One topic that has drawn extensive attention is whether the investment reform improved R&D productivity in China. Using a unique panel dataset from 160 universities, this paper examines the effect of the investment reform on productivity improvement in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. We use a panel count data model with a dynamic feedback mechanism to model the knowledge production process. Strong evidence indicates that the investment reform greatly contributes to knowledge output production in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. We also find that the input quality is more important than the absolute quantity; human research capacity exhibits the greatest contribution to the output of patents; past knowledge accumulation helps produce more patents; and entry barriers to patent production exist in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. Moreover, the patent explosion in China may have been largely caused by improvements in the human capital input quality.     

The transformation of the Indian agricultural input industry: has it increased agricultural R&D?

Indian agricultural input industries have gone through a major transformation in the last 40 years. State owned firms grew during the Green Revolution and then stagnated or declined. Indian corporations that were protected from foreign competition are now exporters of agricultural tractors and pesticides. Foreign multinational corporations are rapidly increasing their role in the seed, pesticide, and tractor industries. Entry by large Indian firms and multinationals has increased competition in the input industries. Private agribusiness R&D in India grew from $23 million in 1985 to $250 million in 2009 in 2005 US dollars. This is the same time period as a transformation in the agricultural input industry, rapid growth in demand for agricultural inputs, breakthroughs in information technology and biotechnology, and changes in intellectual property rights. An econometric model was used to test whether the transformation of agricultural input industry was a major factor in the growth of R&D expenditure or not. This article analyzes a unique, firm level sales and R&D data set from the seed, pesticide, tractor, and fertilizer industries in 2000–2009. The estimated model indicates that agribusiness firms' R&D expenditures from 2000 to 2009 were positively related to variables associated with industry transformation such as firm size, ownership by multinationals, and declining industry concentration. The model also indicates that strengthening patent policy as well as growth in the size of research‐intensive industries like the seed industry contributed to the growth of agribusiness R&D in India.     

The Rate of Progress in Agricultural Biotechnology

The average quality of agricultural biotechnology patents appears to have declined substantially during the past two decades. This quality deterioration may reflect either a decline in the significance of new inventions or an increased use of patents as "protective thickets" against competitors' challenges to more important discoveries. Either way, patent proliferation may be boosting the transaction costs in intellectual property markets, imperiling intellectual exchange and hence technical progress.     

Dynamic input demand functions and resource adjustment for US agriculture: state evidence

The paper presents an econometric model of dynamic agricultural input demand functions that include research based technical change and autoregressive disturbances and fits the model to annual data lor a set of stale aggregates pooled over 1950-1982. The methodological approach is one of developing a theoretical foundation for a dynamic input demand system and accepting state aggreage behavior as approximated by nonlinear adjustment costs and long-term profit maximization. Although other studies have largely ignored autocorrelation m dynamic input demand systems, the results show shorter adjustment lags with autocorrelation than without. Dynamic input demand own-price elasticities for the six input groups are inelastic, ami the demand functions possess significant cross-price and research effects.     

A Dynamic Adjustment Model for U.S. Agriculture: 1948-79

A multioutput model is developed within the adjustment cost framework to analyze the structure of dynamic adjustments in U.S. agriculture during the post-war period. An important feature of this model is that the econometric model is consistent with dynamic economic theory. Fluctuations in capital stocks, variable inputs, and outputs are explained by changing opportunity costs. Empirical results indicated that durable equipment, farm-produced durables, and family labor exhibited significant rigidity in adjustment as a response to exogenous shocks. Surprisingly, the hypothesis that real estate was a variable input could not be rejected. The univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis, which is widely maintained in most agricultural adjustment studies, is inconsistent with the data.     

Measuring soil quality dynamics A role for economists, and implications for economic analysis

Measuring soil quality is extremely difficult, yet it has clear economic importance. In particular, there is a great deal of empirical interest in the dynamics of soil quality evolution when land managers respond to policies and other incentives. Yet current methodologies for measuring changes in agricultural land quality are largely static and rely heavily either on incomplete measures such as proxy variables, or ad hoc indexes of selected soil characteristics. Moreover, much empirical work relies on static econometric techniques or simulation models. In this paper, we develop a means to infer soil quality changes from input and output data using a dynamic production function model. Using data from field experiments, we estimate the model in a way that allows the recovery of a dynamic measure of soil quality whose evolution depends on variations in management practices. Our methodology and findings will help provide firmer empirical foundations for analyses of the economic implications of land degradation and the soil quality implications of agricultural policies.     

The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology

Few empirical studies have addressed the impact of the patent system on industry structure. Using firm-level patent data for firms in plant biotechnology, we develop a measure of patent enforceability. Duration models show that patent statistics are useful predictors of the timing of consolidation and that patent enforceability is an important factor influencing the likelihood of consolidation. Acquisitions in plant biotechnology may be motivated by the enforcement of patent rights when firms have overlapping technologies; some merger activity may be explained by attempts to avoid mutually blocking technology, as exemplified by the case of Roundup Ready corn.     

新疆生产建设兵团农地适度规模经营实证研究

[目的]农地作为农业发展的基础,其是否适度经营决定着农业的发展方向和经营模式,如何有效地推进农地规模经营,加快农业现代化建设,已成为新农村建设和农村改革发展的重大问题之一。[方法]文章采用文献调查法和实证分析法,开展农地适度规模的定量研究,在分析农八师农地规模现状的基础上,通过构建农地适度规模经营计量模型,系统性地对农八师农地适度规模经营问题进行分析研究。[结果]农八师在新疆建设兵团中有较好的经济优势,通过计量模型计算得出农八师土地产出弹性为4.002 5,劳动力产出弹性为0.721 4,每位兵团职工使用土地的最佳规模为9.79hm~2。[结论]新疆建设兵团农地规模经营要想达到适度规模要求,需要转移出一定数量的人口,以尽早实现兵团农地适度规模经营和农业现代化。     

“黄箱”政策的农业增收效果:以粮食作物为例

为定量评价我国农业政策的农业增收效果,本文以粮食作物为例,借用世界银行TRI(贸易抑制指数)和NRA(名义支持率)数据库,分别在粮食作物亩均实际收益与农产品出口贸易抑制指数和农产品进口贸易抑制指数之间建立动态计量模型,采用协整分析、脉冲反应函数和方差分解分析等方法对我国"黄箱政策"的农业增收效果进行了实证分析。研究发现,我国农业自由化程度远高于高收入国家,且存有"重调产出、轻调投入"和"重经济效益、轻粮食安全"等政策倾向;生产者的"超调"行为使得粮食生产收益成倒"N"型变化;长期内"黄箱政策"并不是粮食作物增收的主要因素。     

AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH EXPENDITURES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE

This note comments on the econometric analysis of the dynamic relationship between agricultural research expenditures and agricultural productivity change. The validity of the Almon restrictions, particularly endpoint restrictions, commonly imposed on the distributed lag is questioned. It is suggested that models incorporating such restrictions may lead to biased estimates of the effects of research spending. More fundamentally, doubts are raised as to whether any meaningful relationship between research spending and productivity change can be established from the available data.     

Quarterly Dynamic Relationships Between the U.S. Wheat Market and Wheat-Related Prices for Products Downstream

Abstract

A quarterly VA R econometric model of the reduced form relationships between the U.S. wheat market and prices of processed wheat-related flour, bread, and other bakery products downstream was estimated. The model then simulated under a rise in production- or import-induced increase in wheat quantity, and a decline in wheat price, to examine the dynamic effects on the U.S. wheat market and on processed wheat-related prices downstream. U.S. trade negotiators at the upcoming WTO agricultural round, Federal policy makers, farmers, and agribusiness agents should be interested in the dynamic patterns with which negotiated trade conditions, farm policy alterations, and climatic variation influence wheat quantity and price, and in turn the price of more highly processed wheat-based products downstream.     

Credit market access and profitability in Tunisian agriculture

This work develops an econometric model that links credit access with agricultural profitability and investment. Using data collected from rural Tunisia, this work provides direct estimates of credit access and its effects. Econometric estimates are run for agricultural investment and profitability as a function of credit access. The investigation of credit access and its effect suggests that the presence of credit market constraints does impinge significantly on farm profitability, but not on investments.     

Strategic Behavior and Consolidation in the Agricultural Biotechnology Industry

We develop a model explaining the consolidation patterns in the agricultural biotechnology industry. Among different consolidation and cooperation mechanisms, we consider collaborative and licensing agreements, joint ventures, acquisitions, and exchanges of ownership and spin-offs. The key results derive from the benefits of coordinated actions, distinction between transferable and nontransferable payoffs, the substitutability, complementarity, and the importance of the managers' noncontractible investments, and access and expansion of markets. Results from the model are used to examine the cooperation and consolidation activities for four major players in the agricultural biotechnology industry, DuPont , Dow Chemical , Monsanto , and Novartis .     

An Econometric Model of the Canadian Agricultural Economy

This study presents an annual macro-type econometric model of the Canadian agricultural sector. The model is designed to depict and forecast some of the important activities of the agricultural economy. This agricultural model is linked with a well established existing econometric model of the Canadian economy—the TRACE model. Forecasting results using the agricultural model with and without the linkage with the TRACE modfhtre discussed. Government expenditure multipliers of the TRACE model with and without the linkage of the agricultural model are also examined and discussed.
Cette étude présente un modèle économétrique annuel de type macroéconomique du secteur agricole canadien. Le modèle est concupour décrire el pour prévoir quelques-unes des activités importantes de l'économie agricole. Ce modèle est liéà un modèle économétrique existant bien établi se rapportant à l'économie canadienne—soil le modile TRA CE. Nous discuterons de l'emploi du modèle agricole visant la prévision de résultats avec et sans la participation du modèle TRACE. Les mulliplicateurs des dépenses du gouvernement selon le modile TRACE avec el sans la liaison avec le modèle agricole seront également examinés et discutés.     

Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China

Over the past 20 years the growth of China's agricultural economy has been extraordinary. However, it seems unlikely that China will maintain self‐sufficiency in grains by 2005 without substantial intervention. We develop a CGE model to assess the options available to Chinese policy makers. We compare the welfare effects of import tariffs and domestic support, and explore the potential of biotechnology as a means to achieve self‐sufficiency through improvements in agricultural productivity. Our results indicate that the price interventions that would be required to maintain China's desired self‐sufficiency ratios are considerable, and are unlikely to be compatible with WTO accession. The productivity improvements required are also significant, and likely beyond the current potential of biotechnology.     

An application of optimal control theory to agricultural policy analysis

Since the early 1970s there has been interest in the application of optimal control theory to the management of economic systems. Specifically, optimal control theory prescribes policy strategies which optimise a quantifiable policy preference function subject to market equilibrium conditions. Problems of this kind have been identified among agricultural markets and this paper aims to illustrate the application of optimal control theory to the British potato market. The paper takes evidence from policy makers to derive target values for the producer price, imports, and the changes in the quota area from year to year. The constraints on optimisation are specified in terms of a partial equilibrium econometric model which specifies, demand, supply and trade relationships. The policy preference function is specified as a quadratic and a ‘revealed preference approach’ is employed to estimate the parameters which penalise market equilibria which over or under-shoot policy targets. The resulting optimal control problem is minimised by a dynamic programming routine. The results suggest that policy makers may benefit from taking dynamic effects directly into account when formulating policy strategies.     

MARKET DISTORTIONS IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON THE BEEF AND DAIRY SECTORS

Intervention in the beef and dairy sectors has been the core of Brazilian agricultural policy. An econometric model of these sectors is used as a tool with which to measure the consequences of government-induced market distortions on prices, production, consumption and external trade. It is argued that large economic losses and a less egalitarian distribution of income have been the results of government policy to date.     

Rural–urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal

This paper explores the relationship between agricultural productivity and rural-urban migration by developing an econometric model and applying it to the case of Senegal. Country level data is used covering the years 1961-1996. Policy implications of reducing rural-urban migration using agricultural output elasticities are developed. The findings support the hypothesis that rural-urban migration is a positive function of the ratio of urban per capita income to rural per capita income. Moreover, the results support a policy aimed at reducing rural-urban migration flows through increases in per capita earnings derived from increased agricultural investment.     

A Multivariate Evaluation of Ex ante Risks Associated with Fed Cattle Production

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate production risks faced by fed cattle producers. We do this by jointly modeling a group of cattle production yield risk factors using a multivariate dynamic regression model. The proposed econometric model estimates parameters that influence the mean and variance of production yield factors, as well as the covariance between variables, while accounting for a high degree of censoring through the use of a dynamic multivariate Tobit model. The model provides insights into the relationship between production yield factors in fed cattle production.     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

Several farm sector econometric models are reviewed initially and the aggregation problem highlighted. A thirty-equation model of the Australian agricultural sector is specified in which farm output, stocks and exports and the domestic demand for farm products are endogenous, as well as farm, export and retail prices. Disaggregation is into food and non-food components of unprocessed output, and the processing of food is traced through to final demand. The model is estimated by a modified 2SLS procedure using quarterly data covering the period 1960-1970.