气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向

农业是以作物生长为基础,因此,受气候变化的影响很大。我国幅员辽阔,东西和南北之间气候 差异显著。气候变化将直接导致我国主要农区水资源和热量资源时空分布格局变化。农业生产所依赖的土 壤肥力和作物品种资源及其抗逆性也会在气候变化的作用下发生变化。气候变化直接导致局部地区农业气 候灾害和农业病虫害频度与强度加剧。在气候变化作用下,我国农业作物种植制度、农业生产结构和地区 布局将会发生相应的变化,导致我国粮食产量波动变化,甚至影响到国家粮食安全。因此,迫切需要深入 分析气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展,提出进一步深入研究的重点发展方向。目前,国内 外围绕气候变化对农业和粮食生产的影响开展了很多研究。综合进来,主要有集中在气候变化对农区水热 土资源要素时空分布变化的影响,对作物品种抗逆性、抗逆基因、品种改良的影响与适应,对作物种植制 度、生产结构与地区布局的影响与适应,对农业生物灾害和非生物灾害尤其是农业旱涝灾害发生的影响, 以及对粮食产量、国家粮食安全和农业发展的影响等方面。从发展趋势看,深入开展气候变化对我国农业 和粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究,科学地把握气候变化背景下水热资源条件、土壤肥力、品种 资源等变化规律,揭示农业病虫害流行暴发特征和气象灾害发生机理,模拟、分析和预测气候变化对我国 农业、粮食生产和国家粮食安全的影响程度和变化趋势,具有重大的科学价值和现实意义,因而也将是气 候变化对农业和粮食生产影响研究的重点发展方向。     

国内信息

<正>农业农村部部署农业生态环境监测工作近日,农业农村部印发《关于做好农业生态环境监测工作的通知》,全面部署农业生态环境监测工作。《通知》要求,各级农业农村部门要重点抓好四项工作:一是做好农产品产地土壤环境监测。根据农产品产地土壤环境状况、土壤背景值等情况,开展土壤和农产品协同监测,及时掌握全国范围及重点区域农产品产地土壤环境总体状况、潜在风险及变化趋势。二是做好农田氮磷流失监测。依据农田氮、磷污染的发生规律和地形、气候等情     

动态

<正>1农业农村部部署农业生态环境监测工作近日,农业农村部印发《关于做好农业生态环境监测工作的通知》,全面部署农业生态环境监测工作。《通知》要求,各级农业农村部门要做好农产品产地土壤环境监测,掌握土壤环境总体状况、潜在风险及变化趋势;做好农田氮磷流失监测,分析耕作方式和施肥措施等对农田氮磷流失的影响;做好农田地     

气候变化对我国粮食生产系统影响的研究前沿

在全球气候变化,尤其是气候变暖和大气二氧化碳浓度增加背景下,近半个世纪以来我国主要农区(东北、华北、长江中下游和华南地区)光温水热等气候资源条件时空分布格局发生了比较明显的变化,农田土壤有机质、土壤微生物以及土壤肥力也相应地发生了不同程度的变化。气候变化也导致我国粮食主产区极端气候事件频发,促进农业生物灾害与农业气象灾害形成与发展,进而对我国粮食生产方式、栽培管理、经营方式、种植制度、结构布局产生较大影响。该文分析研究了气候变化与我国粮食生产系统之间的相互作用和相互关系,揭示其内在的影响机理和适应机制,定量模拟气候变化对我国粮食安全的影响程度和适应能力,研究提出我国农业适应气候变化的技术措施。从国家需求和学术发展的角度深入分析了气候变化与我国粮食生产之间的相互作用和相互关系,提出了气候变化对我国粮食生产影响研究领域的许多有待解决的前沿性重大科学问题,阐明了气候变化对我国粮食生产的影响研究,已经成为我国气候变化研究的重点方向之一。     

气候变化对农业生产和农村发展的影响与对策

全球气候正经历着一场以变暖为主要特征的显著变化.全球气候变暖对陆地生态系统、粮食生产与安全、社会经济发展等产生了重大影响,因此也成为国际社会广泛关注的科学热点之一.中国是发展中大国,农业资源相对短缺,生态环境相对脆弱,特别是欠发达地区对气候变化的反应尤为敏感.对气候变化情景预估表明,未来气候变化对农业与农村的可持续发展构成严重制约.本文针对气候变化的特点和趋势,讨论了气候变化对粮食生产和农村发展的正负效应及可能影响,强调了应对气候变化的紧迫性和重要性,提出了坚持科学发展观和科教创新、加大资金投入、提高公众参与意识和能力建设等应对气候变化的策略和措施.     

气候变化加剧 农业科研如何布局

<正>光、热、水是直接影响农业生态环境和作物产量的三个主要因素,而气候变化将直接影响这三个因素的时空分布,进而影响农业生产。气象专家认为,在全球气候变暖的背景下,农作物的高温热害将会进一步加剧,农作物生育周期缩短,导致种子成熟度降低,造成作物产量降低。     

低碳经济下农业生产路径创新需求及发展策略

全球气候变化及资源环境约束加剧了农业低碳化进程。高碳农业生产路径在实现农业产值增长的同时无法摆脱生态环境恶化、碳源增加、碳汇减少等问题,难以实现可持续发展。低碳经济对低碳农业生产路径创新产生新需求。但我国低碳农业生产路径创新还面临一些现实困境,亟需解决。实现农业由"高碳"转向"低碳",要树立低碳理念、加快技术创新、因地制宜、规模经营、提高从业者素质。     

气候变化对农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响

在农业生产中,气象灾害与病虫害是两类最主要的问题,会对农业生产活动带来很大的负面影响。但是,在气候变化的大背景下,气象灾害和病虫害问题也受到了一定影响,产生了一些变化,这给农业生产工作造成了一定影响。所以,本文对此展开探索,阐述了气候变化对气象灾害和病虫害产生的影响,希望可以给相关人士一些参考。     

创新完善循环农业生产模式 着力推进农村生态文明振兴——太仓市农业面源污染综合治理全国试点项目实施情况调查

正农业面源污染是影响农村生态环境的主要因素之一。所谓农业面源污染,是指在农业生产活动中,氮素和磷素等营养物质、农药以及其他有机或无机污染物质,通过农田的地表径流和农田渗漏,造成的水环境的污染,主要包括化肥污染、农药污染、集约化养殖场污染、生活污水、垃圾污染等。加强农业面源污染综合治理是当前保护农村生态环境的一项重要任务和有效途径。近年来,太仓市高度重视生态环境建设,注重发展绿色农业,切实加强农业面源污染综合治理,成功创造了循环农业"东林模式"。2016     

县域土地利用/覆被变化对生态环境承载力影响评价——以江苏省建湖县为例

进行了2001～2004年建湖县土地利用/覆被变化对生态环境(包括水环境、大气环境、土壤环境等)及其生态环境承载力影响评价;结果表明,建湖县生态环境承载力呈下降态势;生态环境单要素承载力——水环境承载力属于中等超载、大气环境承载力属于低超载、土壤环境承载力基本属于弱超载;提出了建湖县协调土地利用与生态环境建设的相应措施。     

World food markets into the 21st century: environmental and resource constraints and policies

Projections of global food supply and demand to the year 2020 indicate that food production in the aggregate is likely to keep pace with growing populations and incomes, and that real food prices will be stable or slowly declining. This article examines the possible environmental and resource constraints to long-term food production growth and explores the implications of these possible constraints for food and resource policies. The article reviews and synthesises the evidence on biophysical limits to crop productivity; plant genetic resources and biotechnology; the availability of plant nutrients; soil and land degradation; the increasing scarcity and declining quality of water; and the impact of global climate change on agriculture.     

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D-led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate-driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D-led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D-led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.     

Sustainable crop intensification through surface water irrigation in Bangladesh? A geospatial assessment of landscape-scale production potential

Changing dietary preferences and population growth in South Asia have resulted in increasing demand for wheat and maize, along side high and sustained demand for rice. In the highly productive northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia, farmers utilize groundwater irrigation to assure that at least two of these crops are sequenced on the same field within the same year. Such double cropping has had a significant and positive influence on regional agricultural productivity. But in the risk-prone and food insecure lower Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP), cropping is less intensive. During the dryer winter months, arable land is frequently fallowed or devoted to lower yielding rainfed legumes. Seeing opportunity to boost cereals production, particularly for rice, donors and land use policy makers have consequently reprioritized agricultural development investments in this impoverished region. Tapping groundwater for irrigation and intensified double cropping, however, is unlikely to be economically viable or environmentally sound in the EIGP. Constraints include saline shallow water tables and the prohibitively high installation and energetic extraction costs from deeper freshwater aquifers. The network of largely underutilized rivers and natural canals in the EIGP could conversely be tapped to provide less energetically and economically costly surface water irrigation (SWI). This approach is now championed by the Government of Bangladesh, which has requested USD 500 million from donors to implement land and water use policies to facilitate SWI and double cropping. Precise geospatial assessment of where freshwater flows are most prominent, or where viable fallow or low production intensity cropland is most common, however remains lacking. In response, we used remotely sensed data to identify agricultural land, detect the temporal availability of freshwater in rivers and canals, and assess crop production intensity over a three-year study period in a 33,750 km² case study area in southwestern Bangladesh. We combined these data with georeferenced and temporally explicitly soil and water salinity information, in addition to relative elevation classifications, in order to examine the extent of winter fallows and low productivity rainfed cropland that could be irrigated by small-scale surface water pumps. Applying observations of irrigated crop sowing dates and yields from 510 wheat, 550 maize, and 553 rice farmers, we also modeled crop intensification production scenarios within the case study area. We conservatively estimate that at least 20,800 and 103,000 ha of fallow and rainfed cropland, respectively, could be brought into intensified double cropping using SWI. Scenario analysis indicates that if 25%–75% of the fallow or low-intensity land were converted to irrigated maize, national aggregate production could increase by 10–14% or 29–42%, respectively. Conversion to wheat would conversely boost national production by 9–10% or 26–31%. Irrigated rice is however unlikely to contribute >3%. In aggregate, these actions could generate between USD 36–108 million of revenue annually among farmers. Intensification therefore has important land use policy and food and income security implications, helping to rationalizei SWI investments. Crop choice, water resource allocation, and water governance will however remain crucial considerations for irrigation planners.     

Specialization and Diversification in Agricultural Transformation: The Case of West Punjab, 1903–92

In this article, the role of crop specialization and diversification in agricultural transformation is investigated empirically. Changes in aggregate land productivity are associated structurally with inter-crop and inter-district reallocation of land use. Results from a region with the oldest history of agricultural commercialization in developing countries show that cropping patterns of subsistence agriculture changed substantially, with rising concentration of crop acreage in districts with higher and growing productivity. Rapid specialization in crop production was observed at the district level recently, after a phase with sporadic specialization. These changes reflected comparative advantage and contributed to the improvement in aggregate land productivity.     

从科研财务助理角度谈50号文带来的变化

[目的]利用粮食生产与天气数据估算极端天气对中国粮食生产的影响,以期对我国的粮食安全有所贡献.[方法]选取中国31个省市2002~2012年面板数据,采用固定效应自相关异方差模型(FE+AR(1)+Hetero)计算高温干旱、洪涝、低温严寒等极端天气对中国粮食生产的影响.[结果](1)粮食播种面积、农村用电量、化肥施用量是农业增产的主要因素.粮食播种面积、农村用电量、化肥施用量增加1个百分点,粮食产量分别增加0.97、0.06和0.18个百分点, 2002~2012年三者对粮食增产的贡献分别为23.55%、31.21%和21.45%;(2)农作物成灾面积增加1%,粮食产出减少0.04%, 2002~2012年农作物成灾面积减少57.75%,对粮食产出增加的贡献为7.97%;(3)在控制农业机械总动力、化肥、农药、农村用电量、农作物成灾面积后,极端高温干旱天气对粮食生产有显著的负面影响,粮食损失比例为1.98%,洪涝、低温严寒影响不显著.[结论]2002~2012年间全国各省市极端高温干旱事件共计93起,频率约为0.27,造成粮食生产额外平均损失比例约为0.53%.     

Productivity and efficiency impact of climate change and agroecology on Bangladesh agriculture

The paper estimates the impacts of climate change, agroecological and socio-economic characteristics on agricultural productivity and efficiency changes in Bangladesh agriculture using a rich panel dataset of 17 regions covering a period of 61-years (1948–2008). Results revealed that land has the most dominant role in increasing agricultural production followed by labour and irrigation. The contribution of non-cereal crops (i.e., potatoes, pulses, oilseeds, jute and cash crops) to total production are also significant, ranging from 2 to 8% per annum. An increase in annual-rainfall and long-term-temperature (LTT) significantly enhance production. Production is significantly higher in floodplain agroecologies. However, production efficiency fluctuated sharply and declined overtime. The mean efficiency score of 0.74 implies substantial room to improve production by resource reallocation. Average farm size, crop specialization and investment in R&D significantly improve efficiency whereas increases in annual temperature-variability and LTT significantly reduce efficiency. Efficiency is significantly lower in low-lying floodplain and coastal-plain agroecologies. Policy implications include investments in diversifying cropping portfolio into other cereals (i.e., wheat and maize), research to develop crop varieties suited to changing climatic conditions and specific agroecological regions, and land/tenurial reforms to consolidate farm size to enhance productivity and efficiency of Bangladesh agriculture.     

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.     

Global food demand,productivity growth,and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio‐energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three by three degrees, i.e., approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields and land and water constraints into account and derives specific land‐use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow prices for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water. In this article, we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e., yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand.     

黄淮海区气候变化及其对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响

气候变化对冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响、冬小麦生产对气候变化的适应已经成为学术界研究的热点问题之一。黄淮海区是我国第一大冬小麦主产区,研究选择黄淮海区为研究区域,首先运用线性倾向率方法分析了黄淮海区近50年来太阳辐射量和平均温度在全年和冬小麦生育期两个时段内的时间和空间变化特征,运用AEZ模型计算了黄淮海区各气象站点的冬小麦光温生产潜力;在此基础上,分析了太阳辐射量和温度变化对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响。结果表明:(1)黄淮海区全年日均太阳辐射量和生育期内日均太阳辐射量均表现为减少的趋势,且全年日均太阳辐射量减少幅度较大;(2)黄淮海区年平均温度表现为上升的趋势,而冬小麦生育期内平均温度的上升趋势极不明显;(3)黄淮海区冬小麦生育期内太阳辐射量的减少和平均温度的降低是导致冬小麦光温生产潜力下降的主要原因。     

The impact of climate change on China's agriculture

This article examines how expected changes in climate are likely to affect agriculture in China. The effects of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues are analyzed using cross-sectional data consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results suggest that global warming is likely to be harmful to rainfed farms but beneficial to irrigated farms. The net impacts will be only mildly harmful at first, but the damages will grow over time. The impacts also vary by region. Farms in the Southeast will only be mildly affected but farms in the Northeast and Northwest will bear the largest damages. However, the study does not capture the indirect effects on farms of possible changes in water flow, which may be important in China.