霉雨季节怎样避免油菜籽生芽霉变

我省油菜收获的,正值阴雨连绵的霉雨季节,那么怎样才能避免油菜籽发芽霉变呢?通常对少量油菜籽采用缸、罐、坛或塑料袋进行密封保管,而对油莱籽量大的,则要用塑料薄膜进行密闭保管。具体方法是:先将油菜籽堆在地面上,然后用塑料薄膜覆盖,薄膜边缘用捣烂的稠泥巴压严密闭。由于油菜籽产生强烈的呼吸作     

油菜籽市场新观察

伴随着今年夏天的到来,油菜籽市场也在大幅度升温。自5月中旬油菜籽开秤以来,油菜籽价格一路走高,6月中旬始,国内油菜籽主产区的油菜籽收购价格迅速上涨的态势有所缓     

今年我国油料市场形势分析

油菜籽产量略减,大豆种植面积可能持平略减 今年夏收油菜籽由于生长期受冻害影响比较严重,部分产区油菜籽长势较差,预计今年油菜籽产量在1200万吨左右,比上年减少100万吨左右,但仍是近几年的较高水平。另外,天气也影响了油菜籽的质量。根据各地收获情况来看,今年油菜籽含油率略低,比去年约低1-2个百分点。     

油菜籽市场新观察

伴随着今年夏天的到来,油菜籽市场也在大幅度升温.自5月中旬油菜籽开秤以来,油菜籽价格一路走高,6月中旬始,国内油菜籽主产区的油菜籽收购价格迅速上涨的态势有所缓和,价格趋向平稳.对江苏农民来说,油菜增收已成定局.面对今年油菜籽市场的火热,江苏省权威人士提醒,要理性对待,更要正确引导油菜秋播.     

湖北省荆州油菜籽收购市场将呈现五大特点

荆州市油菜籽总产量占湖北省近1/2,是全国双低油菜籽的集中产区。近日,笔者对全市八个县市、区的油菜籽生产、收购和销售情况进行了调查分析。今年该市油菜籽收购市场将呈现五大特点:一、预计油菜籽播种面积、产量、商品量、价格及农民收入“五增”。据统计,全市油菜籽种植面积为302万亩,较上年增34万亩,增12.7%;预计总产34593万公斤,商品量26300万公斤,分别较上年增加4452万公斤和2930万公斤,增幅分别为14.8.5%。因上年各地油菜籽经营普遍盈利,且今年市场行情走势看好,各地粮食企业已将油菜籽收购作为今年企业增效的突破口,计划收购1575…     

国产油菜籽能否掌控市场话语权

近期，我国食用油涨价的声音在行业内此起彼伏，作为食用油主要原料之…的油菜籽行情也备受业内关注。目前，我国各地油菜籽采收已近尾声，预计今年国内油菜籽总产量将超过去年。但由于受进口油菜籽冲击，今年我国很多地方油菜籽收购价比去年大幅下降，农民大多惜售等待。一些企业因去年库存高价油菜籽亏损较大，今年出手谨慎。业内分析，虽然今年国家收储起到一定市场托底作用，但靠政策性支撑仍是权宜之计，只有加大力度建设油菜籽生产基地，提高产量、优化质量，才能使国产油菜籽真正掌控国内市场话语权。     

基于ARCH类模型的我国油料价格波动特征研究

运用ARCH类模型对我国三大主要油料大豆、花生和油菜籽价格波动的集簇性、风险报酬特征以及非对称性进行实证检验。结果表明,大豆、花生和油菜籽的价格波动具有显著的集簇性;大豆、花生和油菜籽市场没有高风险高回报的特征;大豆、花生和油菜籽的价格波动具有非对称性,且花生和油菜籽的价格波动具有杠杆效应。     

市场预测·湖北省荆州油菜籽收购市场将呈现五大特点

荆州市油菜籽总产量占湖北省近1/2,是全国双低油菜籽的集中产区.近日,笔者对全市八个县市、区的油菜籽生产、收购和销售情况进行了调查分析.今年该市油菜籽收购市场将呈现五大特点:     

我国油菜籽生产面临的问题和若干发展对策

我国是油菜籽生产大国。近年来，我国的油菜生产尽管发展较快，但油菜籽生产的经济效益下降很多，特别是加入WTO后，油菜籽生产面临严峻挑战。本文在对我国油菜籽生产和消费现状分析的基础上，提出了我国油菜籽生产的发展对策思路。     

油菜籽孔隙率的试验研究

使用孔隙率测定仪,测量了不同品种的油菜籽在不同含水率下的孔隙率。"南油12"油菜籽在含水率为7.11%~13.52%w.b.时,孔隙率为40.87%±0.14%~45.24%±0.16%;"高淳1号"油菜籽在含水率为6.58%~13.59%w.b.时,孔隙率为40.81%±0.16%~46.04%±0.26%。油菜籽的孔隙率随着含水率的增加而增加,与油菜籽品种无明显关系。根据数据拟合方程,"南油12"油菜籽的孔隙率与含水率呈线性关系,"高淳1号"油菜籽的孔隙率与含水率是二次函数关系。     

中加菜籽油期货市场波动溢出实证研究

利用误差修正模型、BEKK-GARCH模型和格兰杰因果关系实证研究了加拿大和中国菜籽油期货市场之间的信息传导、波动溢出和价格引导关系。实证结果显示：这两个市场之间存在一定的信息传导关系;加拿大菜籽油期货市场对中国菜籽油期货市场存在显著的波动溢出效应,而中国菜籽油期货市场对加拿大菜籽油期货市场的波动溢出不显著;短期内加拿大菜籽油期货市场对中国菜籽油期货市场的价格引导作用更强些,这与加拿大菜籽油期货市场是全球菜籽油定价中心的实际相吻合,而中国菜籽油期货市场的竞争力有待进一步提升。     

基于ARIMA模型的我国油菜单产预测分析

[目的]探索我国油菜单产潜力极限、2020年前单产潜力、提高单产潜力的空间及耕地利用布局。[方法]在我国油菜单产光合潜力和"农业生态区划"(AEZ)潜力基础上,基于1961~2010年我国油菜单产统计值,分析"时间序列"数据平稳性,逐步建立ARMA(1,2)模型、ARMA(1,1)模型、AR(1)模型、MA(2)模型和MA(1)模型,根据赤池信息准则(AIC)选择ARMA(1,1)模型建立ARIMA(自回归单整移动平均)模型,拟合2011~2015年我国油菜单产并将其与统计值比较,判断拟合效果并(调整)预测2016~2020年我国油菜单产,将预测值与单产潜力极限对比,得出提高空间。[结果]我国油菜单产最大潜力为3 700kg/hm2,而2017年、2018年、2019年和2020年单产将分别为2 291、2 353、2 471和2 483kg/hm2,分别是最大潜力的61.92%、63.59%、66.78%和67.11%。[结论]文章的结果意味着提高我国未来油菜单产潜力尚有较大空间,应改良中低产耕地与保持高产耕地生产力并重。研究结果旨在为我国油菜生产提供决策参考信息。     

The Impact of Biofuel Policies on Crop Acreages in Germany and France

A major concern about biofuels is that increasing biofuel feedstock demand reduces availability of crops for food and feed leading to higher food prices. This paper investigates relations between biofuel policies and prices of rapeseed, the major feedstock used for biodiesel production in Europe, and the impact of rapeseed prices on crop acreages in Germany and France. Biodiesel is an important biofuel in Europe, and Germany and France are the largest biodiesel producers in Europe. First, the various biofuel policies in Germany and France are discussed, followed by an analysis of their effects on rapeseed prices. Although theory indicates that such effects exist, we could not find empirical evidence for them. Second, using regional land use panel data from Germany and France we investigate empirically whether crop shares have been affected by rapeseed prices in the period 2000–2015 and whether these price effects changed because of biofuel policy changes. Results show that wheat shares in Germany and France did respond to rapeseed prices, but barley shares did not. Moreover, mandatory blending introduced in Germany in 2007 and production quotas introduced in France in 2005 led to a stronger effect of rapeseed prices on wheat shares, but again did not affect barley shares.     

基于面源污染约束的油菜生产效率时空变化及成因分析

[目的]分析面源污染约束条件下我国油菜生产效率的动态变化、省际差异及其影响因素,提出提升途径。[方法]采用基于非期望产出的非径向、非角度的数据包络分析模型测算面源污染约束下的油菜生产效率,根据投入冗余、期望产出不足或非期望产出冗余等,分析效率损失成因。[结果]我国油菜生产效率总体上呈现"N型"年际变化特征,其中黄淮区、江浙、重庆、青海和甘肃的油菜生产效率均值高于0.9,云贵和内蒙古的油菜生产效率则低于0.8。全国和长江流域省际差异表现为先扩大后缩小趋势,西北区省际差异最大,黄淮区省际差异最小。总氮和总磷排放量过高是长江流域乃至全国油菜生产效率损失的主要原因。近3年总氮可缩减比例均值大于30%的地区从大到小依次为湖南、内蒙古、贵州、云南和江西,总磷可缩减比例均值大于30%的地区依次为云南、贵州、四川和内蒙古。此外,湖北用工投入冗余、内蒙古化肥投入冗余和单产不足也是其油菜生产效率损失的重要原因。[结论]长江流域需重点削减氮磷径流损失,黄淮区应重点控制氮磷淋溶损失,西北区应重点治理氮磷侵蚀流失。     

油脂定性试验菜籽油中棉籽油检出测量不确定度评定的探讨

探讨油脂定性试验——菜籽油中棉籽油检出测量不确定度的评定。用已知棉籽油含量的菜籽油进行检测分析测量过程的不确定度分量,合成相对不确定度(Uc)=18.21%。选择与被测样色泽接近的油脂加标对照,可以有效提高测定准确性。     

Do they always say no? German consumers and second‐generation GM foods

European consumers and, in particular, German consumers are known to be very critical toward the introduction of genetically modified (GM) foods. It is analyzed here whether German consumers do reject second-generation GM foods, too. Whereas first-generation GM crops induced producer-related benefits, second-generation GM crops are associated with consumer-oriented benefits like an improvement of nutritional quality. The determinants of demand for second-generation GM rapeseed oil are investigated within an online survey of 1,556 German consumers. It is elaborated how two functional properties of the product matter; that is, long-chain omega-3 fatty acids and the cholesterol-lowering effect of phytosterols. It turns out that GM rapeseed oil is neglected by 74% of all respondents. Output traits, however, will increase the probability of purchases of GM rapeseed oil. This is more the case for long-chain omega-3 fatty acids than for phytosterols.     

“营养强化维生素AE”菜籽油中VA、VE的稳定性研究

为了探究"营养强化维生素AE"菜籽油中维生素A(VA)与维生素E(VE)的稳定性,本研究重点考察了高温加热、光照及烹饪对"营养强化维生素AE"菜籽油中VA、VE含量的影响情况。研究发现,高温加热对VA、VE的稳定性影响较大,温度越高、加热时间越长,损失率越大;光照条件下储存VA、VE均有明显损失,避光条件下几乎无明显变化;烹饪过程会导致VA、VE的流失,但低温短时烹饪过程中VA、VE的损失量是可控的。综上可知,"营养强化维生素AE"菜籽油在日常食用过程中最好选择避光储存,避免高温长时间加热,由此可以减少VA、VE的损失。     

Japanese Tariff Protection of Rapeseed and Soybean Processing

This paper estimates the level of protection afforded rapeseed and soybean oil processing in Japan. It introduces the concept of the relative rate of protection. A major finding is that Japan's tariff structure results in a favoring of rapeseed processing over soybean processing in that country. Canadian crushers are subject to low, unprofitable margins because of the Japanese tariffs.
Nous procédons, dans le présent article, à une estimation du niveau de protection accordé á la production de I'huile de colza et de soja au Japon. Nous introduisons la notion de taux relatif de protection. Nous constatons en particulier que la structure tarifaire en usage au Japon favorise la transformation du colza, comparativement a la transformation du soja. Le secteur canadien de la trituration doit subirdes marges insuffisantes et non rentables á cause des tarifs pratiqués par les Japonais.     

Hedging Opportunities for Canadian

The unprecedented commodity price volatility in the last decade has resulted in a growing interest in futures trading by farmers. One of the major reasons often provided for the usefulness of commodity futures markets is that they provide a mechanism whereby producers can shift the risk of price change onto others. Interestingly, little research has been conducted on the effectiveness of the WCE as a hedging tool for farmers.
The objective of this paper was to investigate the extent to which the futures contracts for rapeseed, barley and flaxseed can be used by farmers in order to reduce price risk (measured by volatility). Drawing on earlier literature, the theory of hedging was reviewed and formulae for estimating the optimal hedge and the effectiveness of hedging were presented. An empirical analysis determined that the Winnipeg rapeseed, barley and flaxseed futures contracts are very useful in terms of allowing a producer the opportunity to reduce exposure to price risk.