Ag econ angst crisis revisited: a rejoinder

Poverty reduction has been an underlying goal of governments and the development community since the Second World War, but it was the 1973 Nairobi address of Robert S. McNamara, then President of the World Bank, that created a new commitment to directly address poverty reduction in the quest for development (McNamara 1973). More than half a century after the war and close to 30 years after Robert McNamara's speech, poverty is still rampant in many parts of the globe. Reflections on why this scourge remains, and what we as agricultural economists can do about it, were the driving forces behind our paper with the late John L. Dillon entitled 'Agricultural economists and world poverty: progress and prospects' (Rola-Rubzen et al. 2001). The part of our paper that Johnson, Rossmiller and Sandiford-Rossmiller (JRS) have reacted to was deliberately provocative to stimulate thinking on ways to combat poverty. We are pleased that someone has taken the bait. As the two surviving authors, we find ourselves in agreement with much that JRS have written. However, in preparing this rejoinder we have sadly missed John Dillon, especially his broad international experience. We note that in several respects JRS amplify and support some of our points, as well as adding a new perspective of their own, dealing with the new institutional economics. We find it hard to work out just where they differ from us.     

When do Agricultural Exports Help the Rural Poor? A Political-economy Approach

Many economists have argued that agricultural exports should be one of the best ways to reduce rural poverty in developing countries, through the creation of productive employment in the rural areas. Non-economists have tended to be sceptical, often seeing such exports as competitive with food crops and thus potentially threatening to an adequate supply of food. The historical record includes many cases in which the prospect of profitable agricultural exports prompted the rich/powerful to appropriate land formerly occupied by lower income agricultural workers, often squatters or people with traditional land rights. That record, as currently understood, leaves it unclear whether such exports have more frequently brought benefits to the rural poor or hurt them. An adequate model of the poverty effects of agricultural exports must thus take account of how control of land (and labour as well) may be shifted among groups without compensation as it becomes more valuable. Two major issues/questions are of current interest. First, have the unjust mechanisms whereby the rich wrested valuable resources from the poor in the past become less common? Second, is there evidence that the sort of labour-intensive agricultural exports most likely to benefit the poor are growing fast enough to suggest an important poverty effect at present and in the future? More in-depth research is needed to clarify both points. For the present, it appears unlikely that agricultural exports will be a major source of poverty reduction for the rural poor in the Third World taken as a whole.     

Agricultural economics: Key commitments and institutional alertness

This presidential address highlights the foundational and ongoing importance of the historical commitments of agricultural economists to applied research and outreach programs. In addition, I stress that institutional alertness increases the pragmatic approach. When research, extension, and institutional alertness are fully integrated, agricultural economists have the potential to generate grounded knowledge, which has meaningful implications to our effort to improve life. I develop these ideas generally and with specific reference to my own research.     

Agricultural economists and world poverty: progress and prospects

New development paradigms come and go, seemingly with increasing rapidity, yet poverty remains the scourge of the developing nations. As we enter the new millennium, we fear that still more development fads and fancies will emerge, to be taken up and then dropped by the development community. These swings in fashion bring with them the danger that the 'basics' of effective development strategies for poverty reduction will be neglected. In this article, we advance some personal and perhaps controversial views about the virtues of getting agriculture moving as a means of reducing poverty, and about the role that agricultural economists can and should play in that endeavour.     

Cash transfer programs and agricultural production: the case of Malawi

Cash transfer programs are increasingly utilized to combat poverty and hunger while building the human capital of future generations; however, they have been faulted by some for failing to build the productive capacity of current generations. This article analyzes the impact of the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme on agricultural production. The results show strong increases in ownership of productive agricultural assets, in time devoted to household farms, and in food types consumed from own production, coupled with a sharp decrease in ganyu labor, which is often used as a coping mechanism once food stores have been depleted. These results are most likely achieved by helping farmers overcome credit and liquidity constraints. This research shows that cash transfer programs can help the capacity of extremely poor farm households to expand agriculture production even if the goal of the program is focusing on other dimensions of poverty.     

Farm Poverty and Safety Nets

Farm families with incomes below the poverty line are far less likely than wealthier farmers to receive farm support payments. Using data from the 1989–2004 Current Population Survey, we find that poor farm families are also not participating in other assistance programs. Controlling for other factors, eligible farm families have substantially lower participation rates in the Food Stamp Program and in Medicaid than eligible nonfarm families. Removing farm safety net program payments would increase the number of farmers eligible for these programs but, in the absence of behavioral changes, would only lead to small increases in the number of recipients.     

新疆连片特困地区少数民族农户贫困影响因素分析

[目的]少数民族连片特困地区的贫困问题是我国新时期扶贫攻坚的难点和重点。深入剖析该区域少数民族农户致贫因素,为新时期精准扶贫精准脱贫提供参考。[方法]基于实地调研数据,利用Logistic模型,从户主特征、家庭特征、村庄环境特征等3个方面对新疆连片特困地区少数民族农户贫困的影响因素进行深入研究。[结果]户主的性别和受教育程度、家庭成员中熟练说国语人口所占比重、兼业情况、是否参与农业合作组织、家庭成员是否残疾或重大疾病、人均耕地面积、是否通公共交通车均对贫困产生了重要影响,与预期一致;户主年龄、农户家庭中劳动力所占比重、未成年人口所占比重、离县城的距离、有无自然灾害对贫困的影响均没有通过统计上的显著性检验,与预期假设不符,主要是"一户一策"的精准脱贫政策及惠农工程起到了重要作用。[结论]未来应从提高贫困人口的自我发展能力和实现对贫困人口精准识别精准帮扶两个方面提高片区的脱贫成效。     

云南乌蒙山片区农业产业化扶贫绩效探析

文章通过对云南省乌蒙山片区农业产业化扶贫的调查,认为云南省乌蒙山片区各县(市、区)依托区域农业资源的比较优势,初步形成了高原农业产业集群,农业经济效益迅速提高,农民收入迅速增加,贫困人口迅速减少、为实现乌蒙山片区农业经济的跨越式发展奠定了比较坚实的基础。但同时发现云南省乌蒙山片区在产业化扶贫进程中仍然存在农业生产总值比重高、农产品特色不鲜明、竞争力不强、农民的自我发展能力弱等问题。并针对问题提出进一步加大乌蒙山片区农业产业化扶贫力度、增强农民的自我发展能力、培育片区农产品品牌,全面提高农产品的市场竞争力,培育龙头企业,全面提高特色农业产业扶贫的绩效,确保2020年实现完全脱贫,形成具有片区特色的跨越式发展道路等举措,以期丰富和发展扶贫理论和区域经济发展理论。     

国家级贫困县农业电商用户与经营解析——基于惠农大数据的分析

[目的]精准扶贫是国策,电商扶贫是方法~([1]);国贫县是我国农业农村电商的重要组成部分,深入了解其发展状况对扶贫攻坚是非常必要的。[方法]文章基于惠农大数据,对整体贫困县内农业电商发展概况、参与电商人群属性、电商经营水平进行解析,分析了农业电商对贫困县脱贫的作用;从整体贫困县和"三区三州"内贫困县的农业电商发展程度,分析了贫困县开展农业电商与生产环境、优势品种和产业发展之间的关系。[结果]2016年以来的互联网农产品供应、采购与交易数据表明:(1)贫困县开展农业电商的覆盖面与整体县基本处在同一水平,(2)贫困县参与农业电商的累计增长率更快,(3)贫困县用户参与农业电商的程度在国家级和省级层面是不同的,(4)贫困县参与农业电商以种养农产品的年轻人较多。[结论]贫困县内的农业电商经营发展水平表明:贫困县的产业扶贫要因地施策,要找准优势产业,要优先扶助有一定规模的产业。     

Pathways for impact: scientists' different perspectives on agricultural innovation

This paper takes the viewpoint of a social scientist and looks at agricultural scientists' pathways for science impact. Awareness of these pathways is increasingly becoming part and parcel of the professionalism of the agricultural scientist, now that the pressure is on to mobilize smallholders and their productive resources for (global) food security and for reducing persistent rural poverty. Significant new thinking about pathways is emerging and it is useful to present some of this, even if it is not cut-and-dried. This new thinking focuses on innovation, not as the end-of-pipe outcome of development and transfer (or ‘delivery’) of results of research to ‘ultimate users’, but as a process of technical and institutional change at farm and higher system levels that impacts on productivity, sustainability and poverty reduction.

This paper will review technology supply push; farmer-driven innovation; market-propelled or induced innovation based on the agricultural treadmill; participatory technology development; and innovation systems. The pathways reviewed all have their merits; the paper will assess them from the perspective of improving smallholder productivity and livelihoods.

This paper concludes that many agricultural scientists have not developed their thinking about how the fruits of their work can help make the world a better place. This is a flaw in their professionalism. Curriculum development, training, promotion criteria, standards used in refereeing journal articles and research funding could benefit from taking on board understanding of pathways of science-for-impact.     

EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION IN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT ?

Agricultural economists are increasingly involved in development planning. Variability in the success of agricultural development projects raises questions about some fundamental concepts; which are re-examined in this paper. In particular, questions relating to the motivation to change, the speed of change and the relationship between technological and institutional change are discussed.     

边疆民族地区牧户贫困脆弱性及其影响因素研究

[目的]为清晰识别边疆民族地区牧户贫困程度,为后续精准扶贫政策及牧户的可持续发展提供科学的决策依据。[方法]文章以边疆民族地区牧户为研究对象,分别以1.25美元、2美元和2300元为贫困线标准,运用VEP估计方法对牧户贫困脆弱性进行测度,并以户主特征、家庭特征、畜牧业生产行为与草原生态政策选择行为4个层面综合构建牧户贫困脆弱性影响的Logit计量模型。[结果]牧户贫困发生率与贫困脆弱性发生率为4.07%和63.47%,其中贫困和非贫困牧户的贫困脆弱性分别为96.88%和62.06%。户主年龄、家庭规模以及绵羊、牛、奶牛、马和山羊的出栏数量与家庭贫困脆弱性呈现反向显著关系,而教育程度、家庭劳动力数量、出栏羊单位与家庭贫困脆弱性呈现显著正向关系,选择禁牧与草畜平衡牧户的贫困脆弱性更低。[结论]降低以中青年为主的牧户的畜牧业风险,构建中小牧户链接到现代农牧业发展的体制机制与政策体系,鼓励牲畜种类多样化以及持续实施禁牧和草畜平衡的生态政策,是降低牧户贫困脆弱性与提升可行能力的重要路径。     

基于农户人口特征和收入结构的相对贫困群体政策支持研究——以山西省Y县为例

文章基于Y县的农户数据,对Y县相对贫困群体的人口和收入结构进行分析发现,相对贫困人群以老病残等特殊群体为主,相对贫困户的转移性收入占比较高,农业收入(经营性收入)和非农收入(工资性收入)的持续提高面临挑战,非建档立卡户中的相对贫困户(边缘户)财产性收入偏低。针对相对贫困人口的群体特征,应从转变政策制定和实施的理念、完善医疗保障政策、完善养老服务体系、完善发展型低收入群体社会救助政策、持续激发脱贫致富内生动力和实施有利于低收入群体增收的产业政策六个方面寻求相对贫困群体稳定脱贫和可持续发展的路径。     

Pro‐Poor Tourism as a Strategy to Fight Rural Poverty: A Critique

Pro‐poor tourism (PPT) is a development methodology that aims to use tourism as a tool for poverty reduction. PPT has been adopted by multilateral institutions, official development agencies and non‐governmental organizations (NGOs). PPT assumes an absolute definition of poverty that is based on net income. This definition allows the consideration of a tourism initiative as ‘pro‐poor’ even though the income earned by the poor population may be marginal. This paper analyses whether PPT's concept of poverty adequately addresses the issues in rural poverty. We analyse one case of unequal distribution of income generated from tourism in the 1990s (Amantaní Island, Perú). The paper concludes that PPT's concept of poverty circumvents the fact that an unequal distribution of income could imply a loss in the quality of life for the majority of a rural population: the high‐income social sector tends to increase its economic and political power to the detriment of other social sectors.     

PROBLEMS OF CHANGE IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

There has been a low level of methodological controversy within the Australian agricultural economics profession. Johnson's 1963 paper is the most significant and in it he passed criticisms on agricultural production economists not unlike those currently being made by political economists of economics in general. These past criticisms have in the main been ignored by the Australian profession but it is suggested that they are now being pushed with renewed vigour and they can no longer be ignored. It is argued that our policy work has by and large been successful and effective except for significant areas where our methodology was of restricted usefulness. In farm management the Johnsonian strictures would seem to apply but a more charitable interpretation is provided which should meet the approval of the political economists. Our almost complete neglect of development economics must soon draw to an end and we will find that the methodologies which we have relied on heavily and fairly successfully must be augmented as we become more involved in this field. The political economics challenge should be recognized and accepted with relish because the nature of our work is changing and will continue to change in the future. We have adapted fairly well as adjustment and equity have become major policy concerns. Meeting the political economics challenge will help this process of adaptation.     

Research and Development Towards Sustainable Agriculture by Resource-Poor Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some Strategic and Organisational Considerations in Linking Farmer Practical Needs with Policies and Scientific Theories

Sustainable agricultural development is presented as a diverse and dynamic process through which it copes with agro-ecological and socio-economic diversity at field level and with ever-changing needs and opportunities of (smallholder) farmers. In support, agricultural research—aimed at locally appropriate and environmentally friendly technologies—should contribute to bridging the currently increasing gaps between scientific theories and government agricultural policies as opposed to the practical field realities that farmers are facing.

These gaps are best illustrated by—what in the West is often presumed to be—a stagnant African agricultural (in reality it is not!) in spite of many ambitious policies and projects by national governments and international donors for several decades. Disappointing adoption rates by resource-poor smallholders of the proposed ‘modern’ agricultural technologies have often been blamed. However, the actual local systems are primarily based on ‘ecological’ and ‘organic’ concepts. Localised intensification through recycling of organic by-products is an integral part of such systems. Consequently, these systems are uniquely adapted to the diverse framer needs resulting from widespread variations in soil, climate and socio-economic conditions. By contrast most international R&D support for the African agricultural sector is aimed implicitly at creating a modern conventional system of farming based on external inputs and along a Western industrial model.

To cope with diverse and complex, location specific problems inherent in development, sustainability and poverty alleviation, requires strong national research and development (R&D) institutions that adopt comprehensive, people-centred approaches as opposed to the technocratic nature of most formal international development assistance. The development debate therefore should be turned around. The ‘existing’ smallholder farming systems and their needs should be a point of departure, while the various development initiatives and policies should be handled by including the related institutional aspects.     

涉农电商对产业扶贫的作用及相关措施探讨

[目的]文章旨在从作用机理的角度论证涉农电商的发展对我国当前产业扶贫的促进作用,并结合作者所观察到的一些问题提出几点思考和建议,以供电商扶贫工作者和相关方面的学者参考。[方法]该文主要采用文献研究、归纳总结及逻辑推理分析等方法,对上述作用机理及相关问题进行分析。[结果]发展涉农电商能让贫困农户更方便寻找市场销路,获得更稳定的收入,同时也有利于激发贫困户的积极性,提升自身发展能力;但在发展涉农电商时,常常会出现诸如产品质量差、市场营销能力不足、脱贫增收效果不佳、产业开发项目不尊重市场规律等问题。[结论]在贫困地区发展涉农电商时应当重视加强以下6个方面的工作:①严格把控产品质量关;②重视市场营销能力建设;③注重脱贫增收效果;④注重构建以市场需求为导向项目选择机制;⑤充分发挥当地致富领头人的作用;⑥注重当地产业发展人才的培养。     

Foreign Aid and the Quest for Poverty Reduction: Is Aid to Agriculture Effective?

Development statistics estimate that three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. Consequently, research focusing on economic growth and poverty reduction has found that sustainable rapid transition out of poverty requires a special emphasis on the agricultural sector. This study contributes to the debate on aid effectiveness by disaggregating total aid into subcategories and specifically investigating the relationship between aid given to the agricultural sector and poverty reduction. If agricultural development is more effective in reducing poverty than some other types of development, then foreign aid directed towards agriculture may be more efficient in increasing the well‐being of the poor than aid directed to some other sectors or uses. Our analysis uses panel data for developing aid recipient countries to empirically test this relationship. We find a significant relationship between agricultural aid and poverty reduction in our estimates.     

风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

目的 试图从微观农户层面研究风险冲击对相对贫困的影响及作用路径,以期为增强农村居民家庭风险抵御能力、缓解相对贫困提供实证支撑。方法 文章基于中国家庭动态追踪调查（CFPS）数据,运用面板probit模型和固定效应模型实证分析风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响,用异质性分析和面板门槛回归模型探讨不同收入水平的农村居民家庭风险应对方式差异。结果 （1）风险冲击会增加农村居民家庭相对贫困的可能。其中,灾害冲击是导致农村居民家庭相对贫困的首要原因,其次是教育冲击和婚丧嫁娶、孩子出生等重大事件冲击,失业冲击和健康冲击的影响相对较小。（2）不同收入水平农村居民家庭的风险应对机制差异是导致相对贫困家庭无法摆脱相对贫困的重要原因。与高收入的农村居民家庭相比,低收入的农村居民家庭遭受风险冲击时会减少更多的农业生产投资,增加更少的人力资本投资,导致家庭现有的资源配置无法提升家庭未来的收入能力,使其囿于相对贫困无法脱离。结论 政府应构建更具韧性的国家治理体系、更具弹性的社会帮扶体系,在此基础上提高农村居民家庭的可持续生计能力,从而减少农村居民家庭陷入相对贫困的可能。     

RANDOM THOUGHTS ON SOME PROBLEMS OF PROFESSIONAL COMMUNICATION*

Within the profession of agricultural economics are found academics, government economists, farm organization economists, and others. Although the profession is based on general acceptance of principles and judgements, the outlook and activities of an individual are conditioned by his occupational status. Employment affiliations give rise to certain restraints and strains to communication between functional groups. The paper examines this problem, and presents a case for better understanding between the major institutional groups.