一季度加息可能性增大

去年四季度经济数据表明,我国经济基本面良好。但面对通胀压力,政府为表示抗通胀决心很可能在一季度加息。而在未来两到三个月内人民币可能再度进入升值通道。     

观点报道

周小川：反通胀是中国货币政策更关心的问题；唐双宁：两防同时也要提防滞胀；夏斌：人民币汇率应给市场一个相对稳定信号；穆迪：“加息不是一个好主意”     

读者观点

全球联手治通胀势在必行南京蔡恩泽目前,通胀已经成为新兴市场国家面临的最大问题和风险。在经济全球化的今天,一国或少数几个国家治理通胀无济于事,也是不公平的,比如光指望中国人民币加息、人民币升值来遏制通胀,让中国为全球通胀埋单,而欧美从中渔利,这有失公允。只有全球多数国家行动起来,合力抑制流动     

转折中的美国货币政策及其影响

美国的经济波动,对世界经济来说,具有牵一发动全身的效应;美联储的货币政策更是备受各国中央银行的关注.一个时期来连续17次的加息,这在美国历史上是不多见的,作者认为,当美联储持续加息使美元利率达到5.25%高位时,将面临一系列的抉择:较低的通胀还是较高的增长,继续加息还是停止加息,是选择“中性利率“还是“量化通胀“.对此,作者就其影响所及,进行了深刻的分析.     

资产泡沫化背后的博弈

中行加息刚刚落下帷幕，然后是政府的宏观调控的．开始，不知这场运动能否抑制加剧的泡沫、加速的通胀和抱着美元一起跳水的人民币。     

主要经济体2011年经济形势与货币政策走向分析

该文展望了各主要经济体2011年经济形势与货币政策走向。分析指出,美国政府将维持＂双扩张＂政策,年底之前加息的可能性不大;欧元区复苏缓慢,下半年有可能加息;英国通胀压力增大,可能于上半年加息;日本政府面临减少债务还是克服通缩的两难选择;发展中国家完成退出战略,将进入加息通道。     

报摘

新兴市场投资者紧盯中国 英国《金融时报》1月11日 新兴市场当前既要应对通胀，又要努力阻止来自发达国家的巨额热钱流入。这使政治家和央行官员面临左右为难的选择。要么维持低利率，以保持汇率稳定、遏制热钱，要么通过加息压制通胀，但会因此导致经济增长放缓。为破解难题，     

国际金融市场年度盘点与前瞻

本期关注 　　2006年全球再奏加息续曲 　　国际油价的上涨使各国通胀压力普遍增大,从而在全球范围内掀起以美联储为首的加息风潮.自2004年6月以来,美联储已连续14次以每次25个基点的相同幅度提息,其中2005年共计加息8次,2006年1月31日加息1次.目前,美联储联邦基金利率达到4.50%,是近5年来的最高水平.美联储本轮加息的主要目的是为了遏制通货膨胀压力的增大,以确保美国经济的持续稳定增长.事实证明,此轮提息达到了预期目的.尽管美联储暗示本轮加息周期已进入尾声,但根据美国经济增长态势及面临的通胀压力,预计美联储有可能在2006年3月和5月再度加息.     

美元加息对国际经济和金融市场的影响

自2004年6月份以来，美联储连续10次以相同幅度提高利率，美元持续加息，受缓解国内通胀压力和经济过热等因素的驱动，并造成西方其他主要货币不同程度的贬值。由于决策难度的增加，未来美联储加息的步伐可能放慢，而美国经济仍有望保持低通胀下的较快增长。     

地产行业 大浪淘沙始见金

此次加息之后,人民币升值预期会进一步加强,从而吸引热钱的进一步流入,流动性依然充裕,而25个基点的加息对控制通胀的效果难言乐观。因此,此次加息不仅没有改变刺激此轮房地产股反弹的外部因素,甚至有强化的可能。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.