Future of North Cyprus: An economic-strategic appraisal

Based on qualitative methods of study of the future, including experts interviews and the deliberations of a symposium, this paper analyses the shape of things to come for North Cyprus in the light of its historical backlog and the present scenarios. It argues that the impact of globalisation is becoming very decisive in this part of the world: there are important players including the US, Russia, Turkey, Greece, European Union, Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots in this strategic region with their vested interests and plans which will be deterministic for the fate of the Island. One of the most crucial of these plans is the Greater Middle East Initiative developed by the US. Given the vectors of forces now active in the political horizon, the future of North Cyprus to be an independent sovereign state looks within reach if Muslim countries continue recognising it.     

Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

Environmental scenarios and local-global level of community engagement: Environmental justice, jams, institutions and innovation

National climate change policy currently operates on a continuum from the local community to the supra-national level. These initiatives include local deliberative processes of low-carbon futures as well as local-global interactions in ‘eco-innovation jam’ dialogues carried out in a virtual space, but founded on communicating with local stakeholder groups. Experiences from national processes and international examples of these structured dialogues of community engagement raise important questions of environmental justice and deliberative processes that facilitate participation by some groups, but perhaps also neglect others. This is particularly relevant since the environmental justice discourse traditionally frames environmental concerns in a place-bound manner that includes local responses to environmental questions. In this paper we argue the importance of local and global forums and deliberative processes for community engagement in order to incorporate stakeholders’ perceptions of future options for low-carbon living, travelling and consuming services and products. Important policy transformations in planning for low-carbon societies are outlined and results from cases are discussed. We conclude with three remarks about the importance of citizen participation for understanding local conditions for change, processes of localized internationalization, and new roles for nation states facing the climate change challenge. We also recognise the importance of the local and global level of deliberative processes targeting sustainable urban futures.     

Energy Savings and Economic Impact of Green Roofs: A Pilot Study

This study focuses on the energy savings and economic impact of green roof systems applied to Central Bodrum, a district in southwestern Turkey. Energy savings of the buildings were evaluated based on the added thermal resistance on the roofs and corresponding heat transmission through the roofs. Four different scenarios, two without green financing and two with green consumer loans for retrofitting financed by the central government via the state-owned banks, were studied. The economic impact of this activity on the economy is estimated based on sectoral employment multipliers for a period of 10 years. Based on the scenario analysis and the priorities of the Turkish economy, given the employment benefits and energy savings which would reduce the energy demand in the area in the peak season, we propose that the government implements green consumer loans for retrofitting through the state-owned banks.     

Tourism at Costalegre,Mexico: An ecosystem services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures

Tourism, as all human activities, is dependent on the natural environment and its respective ecosystem services (ES). Different user groups manage and consume these touristic ES differently, resulting in discrepancies and potential conflicts. Despite the urgency to find inclusive local approaches for sustainable development, tourism studies still analyze socio-economic and ecological impacts separately and lack integrated social–ecological approaches to improve foresight in tourism planning. Based on a growing concern regarding the future of Costalegre on the Jalisco coast of Western Mexico, we analyze through interviews, surveys, and participant observation the dependence of tourism on specific ecosystem services and conduct a scenario analysis which shows present and future implications for the social–ecological system. Furthermore, this analysis shows in detail how different scenarios change ES provision and people's livelihoods. Key findings include identifying freshwater provision and cultural ES as the most important touristic ES. At a regional scale, peasants in ejidos are the main ES stewards, whereas high-class tourism facilities constitute important local stewards. Benefits, mainly access to freshwater and the beach, are unequally distributed, provoking conflicts among different ES user groups that may escalate in the near future. Improved communication between all user groups and strengthening of key political actors seem to be the most immediate recommendations to ensure the long term sustainability of this particular region. This work may contribute to improved planning and decision-making as our ES based scenarios are a first step to integrate social–ecological knowledge into improved decision-making. At a local scale, the study reveals the most likely future development options and their social and ecological consequences. It could also serve as a baseline for informed policy making.     

FutureSelf: Emerging digitized life patterns and a personal future simulation system

Unique information sources, available and accessible in digital networked environments, can be used as a data set for the extrapolation of an individual's potential futures. Based on an interactive analysis process, a carefully crafted system using artificial intelligence, data mining processes and behavior adaptive features can generate contextualized interactive personal future simulations in the form of interconnected micro-future scenarios. Micro-future scenarios provide context-sensitive information, alternative future paths and recommendations based on an individual's personal circumstances and her environment. The emerging future narrative can be delivered effectively by using different communication channels and methods in digital environments. The system aims to enhance an individual's awareness of the consequences of her existence by connecting her personal and social actions to a wider social, cultural, political, economical and ecological context.     

Designing futures: Inquiry in climate change communication

There are many barriers and challenges associated with climate change communication focused on promoting community-based action for sustainable futures. Of particular interest is the challenge to embed community perspectives in a communication process of climate change solutions. In this paper we argue that 3D interactive simulations using design inquiry as a development process, can be an effective way of communicating climate change solutions and multiple community responses. People are more likely to engage with the challenges associated with complexity of climate change at the local level when their perspectives are integrated into viable and multiple pathways for action. Future scenarios of change processes situated in local experiences in compelling and interactive ways can be disseminated holistically by making links between scientific, social, political, economic and cultural elements. Design inquiry, as a research approach, integrates contextual knowledge into communication processes to aid imagining, re-thinking and reembodying viable pathways that explore the kinds of futures we collectively envision. This paper examines the contributions that design inquiry makes to climate change communication using an interactive simulation environment for designing futures. We discuss these ideas using the example of the Future Delta project, a virtual 3D environment that enables the exploration and simulation of multiple community-based climate change solutions in the Corporation of Delta, British Columbia.     

金融市场化改革背景下城商行发展路径探讨--基于比较优势分析视角

通过对国内城商行现有发展模式的总结归纳,以北京银行为代表的综合化经营模式、以珠海华润银行为代表的产融结合发展模式、以台州银行和龙江银行为代表的深耕小微及社区金融两大城商行传统业务模式、以哈尔滨银行为代表的掘金农村金融模式具有重要意义。基于对上述发展模式的分析,本文认为国内城商行应基于自身资源禀赋选择合适的发展路径,通过在比较优势领域的深耕细作培育核心竞争力。     

2008—2012年城商行中间业务发展解析

随着经济结构调整以及利率市场化的加速推进,城商行依赖存贷利差的业务发展模式将不可持续。如何在未来利差收入减少的情况下获得可持续发展,成为城商行面临的重要难题。而发展中间业务无疑成为各类城商行的重要选择。对国内样本城商行的研究发现,大型城商行依托丰富的资源禀赋及先发优势,在中间业务发展上处于领先地位,而多数中小城商行无论是中间业务占比还是结构上都处于初步发展阶段。未来,大型城商行应充分利用资本市场发展机遇,积极、稳妥推进投行业务,促进直接融资类手续费收入的增长;而中小型城商行应巩固传统中间业务发展,并以积极发展理财业务为契机拓展中间业务渠道。     

城市商业银行快速发展中的几个关键问题

城市商业银行作为特殊的金融群体,在地方经济发展中的地位越来越重要。因此,面对竞争日益激烈的金融形势,城市商业银行必须根据市场形势,及时调整发展战略。本文从经营理念、决策能力、统筹协调和个性化市场营销四个方面论述了城市商业银行发展的几个着力点。     

城市商业银行实现差异化发展面临的问题及对策建议

特色化、差异化发展是城市商业银行未来发展的大趋势。但从目前来看,一系列内外部因素制约着城市商业银行的差异化发展,使得城市商业银行走上与其它类型商业银行相同的发展道路,并导致城市商业银行竞争力低下、可持续发展能力不足。这些因素包括监管政策、银行业体系、城市商业银行股权结构、战略定位、绩效考核制度等,因此,城市商业银行实现差异化发展的关键就在于消除这些因素的制约。     

Decentralization,Economic Development,and Growth in Turkish Provinces

There have been important developments in the decentralization of the government structure in Turkey since the early 1980s. This paper examines economic development and growth in Turkish provinces. It first discusses local government reforms throughout the history of Turkey with the focus on recent reform efforts. It then empirically analyzes the effects of recent decentralization reforms in Turkish provinces using cross-sectional and panel data approaches as well as spatial econometrics. The panel data set consists of sixty-seven provinces from 1976 to 2001. Using the number of local governments per capita and number of local governments per square kilometer of land to indicate decentralization, the analysis examines whether variations in local decentralization across these provinces and across time have significantly affected economic development and growth in those provinces. The findings suggest a weak negative economic effect of decentralization through a number of municipalities per capita. However, the findings do not show any significant effect from the creation of new provinces by separation from the existing ones.     

商业银行异地分支机构差异化管理模式探讨

随着浙江本土经济的快速发展以及区域经济纽带的进一步紧密,客户的金融服务需求已超出单一城市限制。异地分支机构的设立有助于商业银行做大规模、增强辐射功能、实现持续发展,但同时也对异地分支机构的经营管理提出了挑战。文章以杭州联合银行阿克苏分行为例,分析商业银行异地分支机构在发展实践中遇到的问题,并从组织模式、客户管理、产品创新、风险管理以及人力资源等方面对异地分支机构的差异化管理进行探讨。     

地方金融发展能够影响FDI的区位选择吗?——一个基于城市商业银行设立的准自然实验

本文以城市商业银行的设立为自然实验,结合1990-2015年中国295个地级市数据以及成立的184家城市商业银行,运用双重差分方法系统考察了地方金融机构对FDI区位选择的影响。研究表明,城市商业银行的成立显著促进了城市FDI的流入;经过一系列稳健性检验和进行倾向得分匹配(PSM)估计之后,这一结论依然成立。结合企业数据证实城商行的设立提升了企业从银行获得贷款的可能性,能够通过缓解企业融资约束而影响FDI的区位分布。对城商行兼并和异地扩张行为的进一步分析表明:城商行经营规模的扩张,无论是对属地还是异地城市FDI的促进作用均不明显,而城商行资金规模的扩张对FDI有明显促进作用。这些发现将为我国完善金融体系和升级银行业结构、吸引FDI促进区域经济协调发展提供理论和经验支持。     

地方政府干预、境外战略投资者引入与城市商业银行治理

本文以8家城市商业银行的42份年报作为研究样本,利用主元分析法实证研究了地方政府和境外战略投资者对城市商业银行公司治理的影响,及其作用于城市商业银行的具体机制。研究结果表明,地方政府对城市商业银行治理产生了负面影响,境外战略投资者在一定程度上抑制了地方政府对城市商业银行的干预,促进了城市商业银行治理的改善。为了提升城市商业银行公司治理水平,本文建议地方政府进一步退出城市商业银行,取消城市商业银行中境外战略投资者持股比例监管限制,鼓励外资派驻更多的董事和高管实质性参与城市商业银行的经营管理。     

北京市吸引FDI经济影响因素的实证分析

本文根据FDI区位选择理论,运用协整分析方法,对影响北京市吸引FDI的关键经济因素进行了实证分析。无论从长期还是短期来看,北京市成功吸引FDI的经济影响因素有:经济的快速增长、固定资产投资的增加、产业结构的完善以及具有比较优势的劳动力成本。     

Future of Turkey-EU relations: a civilisational discourse

Should or can Turkey join the European Union (EU)? This paper argues that there are three alternative scenarios of the EU decision to grant membership to Turkey: ‘privileged relationship offer,’ ‘wait and see attitude,’ and ‘start of full membership negotiations.’ It then gauges each alternative path, and argues that the most likely scenario is a decision to start the negotiations, followed by the scenario of ‘wait and see.’ The EU decision will be conditioned by its future vision of global governance and the role foreseen for Turkey inside, outside or at the margin of it. The paper concludes that the EU decision will have significant implications for the future of relations between Europe and Turkey on the one hand, and Europe and the Islamic world on the other.     

Social justice in a cold climate: Could social accounting make a difference?

Building on the argument that justice should be the transcendent principle in accounting, we argue that social accounting invokes notions of community, shared social values, and fairness in the distribution of social resources. These ideas are elaborated in relation to local government, which provides a window on how communities make decisions about distributing their social resources and the accounting processes which guide these decisions. Fieldwork in two large but contrasting English local authorities suggests that the potential of social accounting is not reflected in the predominant accounting systems in local government organisations, but in more subtle and successful forms of ‘enacted social accounting’. Its utility relates to the achievement of short-term social goals where social injustices persist and accountants, managers and politicians seek to accommodate financial pressures to protect the most vulnerable members of the community. We identify local government accountants as morally responsible for the further development of social accounting which envisions a future for local government, and establishes links between social justice, environmentalism and localism.     

Traffic risk perception,road safety attitudes,and behaviors among road users: a comparison of Turkey and Norway

The present study aims to investigate differences in road safety attitudes, driver behavior, and traffic risk perception between Turkey and Norway. A questionnaire survey was conducted among a sample of Norwegian (n?=?247) and Turkish (n?=?213) road users. The results show that Turkish respondents perceived traffic risk to be higher than Norwegian respondents. Turkish respondents reported safer attitudes towards drinking and driving than Norwegian respondents, while Norwegians reported safer attitudes towards speeding. Turkish respondents reported a lower frequency of speeding behaviors than Norwegian respondents, whereas Norwegian respondents reported a lower frequency of drinking and driving. Traffic risk perception was related to road safety attitudes and behaviors among Norwegian respondents but not among Turkish respondents. The results were discussed with respect to differences in traffic safety, traffic culture, and the development levels in Turkey and Norway.