牛熊交替 谁主沉浮——中国基金业绩持续性分析

认识到基金业绩的不可持续这一事实，投资者在根据基金的业绩做决策时要格外慎重．更应该综合考虑投资目标、基金中长期业绩的稳定性、风险程度、成本等因素来选择基金，并从资产配置的角度来对基金进行组合。     

浅议证券投资基金经理投资策略

一、动态资产配置策略 资产配置是基金资产管理的决定性环节,也是决定投资组合相对业绩的主要因素.     

开放式基金的资产配置能力研究

本文从战略性和战术性两方面,考察了开放式基金的资产配置能力,对我国30只开放式基金的资产配置能力进行实证检验发现,中国的开放式基金在2004年底至2007年底,尽管取得了骄人业绩,但是其资产配置能力并不很高;研究同时发现,我国证券投资基金主要通过投资组合中证券的调整进行资产配置,而较少依靠对组合中资产的调整来满足资产配置的原则要求。     

基金业绩排名与基金经理的冒险行为

本文利用2005-2010年间开放式股票型和混合型基金的数据,研究年度基金业绩排名对基金经理冒险行为的影响。与相对业绩排名激励机制会导致基金经理过度冒险的假设相一致,本文发现,年中业绩排名靠后的基金经理(输家)在下半年提高所持有资产组合的风险的程度要大于年中业绩排名靠前的基金经理(赢家)。进一步研究发现,基金经理提高下半年所持有资产组合的风险并不能显著提高下半年基金的业绩。特别是在熊市中,提高下半年所持有资产组合的风险反而显著降低了基金下半年的业绩。     

基金业绩排名与泡沫资产配置

基金在业绩排名压力下的泡沫资产配置行为会加剧市场波动、推升市场泡沫。本文基于事件研究法与固定效应模型研究了2013―2020年基金的重仓持股,发现:(1)基金在泡沫膨胀阶段显著超配了泡沫资产,而在泡沫破裂前后显著减配,展现了“泡沫骑乘者”的特征;(2)2015年前后,泡沫资产主要为小市值股票,2019―2020年,泡沫资产逐渐转为大市值“白马股”,且基金超配的程度显著提高,呈现抱团大盘白马股的特征;(3)排名前5%的赢家基金,以及1/3和1/10关键排名处的基金更激进地超配泡沫资产;(4)相邻排名基金的业绩差异越大,基金的泡沫资产配置行为越明显。综上表明,基金公司并不一定是天然的市场稳定器,监管层应密切关注业绩压力下基金超配泡沫资产的行为,投资者则应理性选择长期声誉较高的基金。     

证券投资基金不同资产配置方式及其对基金收益的影响

本文以我国35只股票型开放式基金为研究样本,从战略性资产配置、战术性资产配置以及战术性资产配置中的资产调整和证券调整等四个角度,分别考察资产配置对基金收益的影响。研究发现,我国证券投资基金的战略性资产配置对基金收益的影响占主要地位,战术性资产配置中的证券调整的影响也相对较大。进一步的研究表明,基金的规模、成立时间以及投资风格对资产配置作用于基金收益具有重要且不同的影响。据此,本文提出了相关的启示与政策建议。     

我国股票型开放式基金资产配置能力研究——基于跨时期绩效变化的分析

本文从基金跨时期资产配置能力的角度出发,对我国32只股票型开放式基金进行实证研究发现:对于选取的具有晨星三年评级三星以上的股票型开放式基金来说,基金的总体收益高于市场基准组合;但是基金中长期的资产配置能力与短期相比,无论是在业绩的稳定性上还是平均绩效上都存在着差异。     

组合搭配 兼顾操作灵活性

统计显示,在震荡市场背景下,基金业绩与大类资产配置相关度不高,2月份以来不同股票仓位水平基金间的平均业绩相差不大,分化更多来自管理人对个股、板块的选择把握能力。     

如何观察基金业绩变动

对于任何一只基金产品来讲,掌握其业绩变动规律都是非常重要的。基金的业绩变动主要表现形式是基金的净值变动。从另外一个角度来讲,引起净值变动的外在形式是基金的分红。但决定基金业绩变动更重要的是其内在形式,即基金资产配置品种的     

灵活配置 阶段性投资

上半年A股市场演绎了一段结构性行情,基金的业绩表现也有所分化,资产配置灵活的基金更为抗跌,在下半年的投资策略中,这类基金也将重点关注。     

Asset Allocation and Selectivity of Asian Mutual Funds During Financial Crisis

This paper evaluates the ability of US-based Asian mutual fund managers in coping with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We find that the actively managed mutual funds under-perform with respect to the market portfolio by 1.71% in average monthly return. Such poor performance is caused by fund managers' relative weakness in country selection as well as in stock picking. Fund managers are also found to be more skillful in picking the correct market when the market is going up than going down. Our results are consistent with the literature that asset allocation in Asian mutual funds is a dominating factor relative to selectivity in explaining fund returns during the financial crisis. In addition, there exists a negative relation between asset allocation ability and selectivity of fund managers.     

中国基金管理公司的所有权结构与绩效

本文探讨中国基金管理公司的所有权结构对其所管理基金的整体业绩的影响.我们以所有权结构与企业经营业绩的一般理论为基础,将基金管理公司作为特定的企业类型和研究对象,提出关于所有权类型和控股程度的假设,使用1999年至2010年我国基金管理公司的面板数据进行计量检验.我们发现,中外合资的基金管理公司业绩总体优于纯中资背景的基金管理公司,但是外资比例不宜过大;绝对控股的基金管理公司比相对控股和股权分散的基金管理公司业绩更优,然而控股股东的类型对业绩没有明显影响.我们根据这些发现提出了若干实践启示.     

Sentimental mutual fund flows

We show that many stylized empirical patterns for mutual fund flows are driven by investor sentiment. Specifically, when sentiment is high, investors exhibit a stronger tendency of chasing past fund performance; fund flows are less sensitive to fund expenses; and investors are attracted more to funds with sheer visibility. Moreover, the well‐documented positive relation between fund flows and future fund performance is significant only during high sentiment periods and is mainly driven by expected component of fund flows. Finally, we show that mutual fund investors exhibit a significantly negative timing ability at the individual fund level when sentiment is high.     

What determines fund performance persistence? International evidence

We study performance persistence across a global sample of equity mutual funds from 27 countries. In contrast to the existing U.S.‐based evidence, we find that net performance persistence is present in the majority of fund industries, suggesting that fund manager skill is commonplace rather than a rarity. Consistent with the intuition that more competition in the mutual fund industry makes remaining a winner fund less likely but keeping a loser fund at the bottom of the performance ranks more probable, we show that competitiveness explains the cross‐sectional variation in performance persistence.     

Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows

Abstract:  Using a proprietary data set to study how past performance affects the determinants of mutual fund flows for a sample of load fund investors, I provide evidence that the determinants of fund flow depend on market conditions for both redemptions and purchases. Specifically, I show that, for redemptions, relative performance and risk adjusted performance are important determinants during a period of record flows into mutual funds. Conversely, during a period of poor performance, absolute performance becomes much more important and relative performance and risk adjusted performance become less important. For purchases, absolute performance, risk adjusted performance, and most relative performance measures become more important during the bear market.     

基金管理公司股权结构与基金绩效研究

本研究采用2004～2010年期间的开放式股票型基金为样本,应用Carhart的四因子模型作为衡量基金投资质量与绩效的评价指标,以基金管理公司的股权结构为切入点,研究基金管理公司组织与股权结构对旗下基金绩效的影响。在控制了基金特征和基金经理特征后,我们发现国有控股和中外合资基金管理公司旗下的基金绩效较好。表明我国基金行业存在国有资本的帮助之手效应;此外,外资参股有利于提高基金业绩。     

Persistent performance in the mutual fund market: Tests with funds and investment advisers

Recent studies of mutual funds have concluded that there is some evidence of superior performance. We test for the existence of superior performance and its persistence with mutual funds and mutual fund investment advisers on a data set of monthly returns from 1979 to 1989 for 1,387 mutual funds grouped by 243 advisers. We find no evidence of superior performance or its persistence but we do find significant evidence of persistence of inferior performance. Consistent with previous studies our findings depend on the benchmark chosen, with multiple benchmarks producing a larger degree of inferior performance.     

On the short-term persistence of mutual fund performance in Europe

In this article, we examine the short-term persistence in mutual fund performance in the main European markets between January 1990 and December 2022. The mutual fund industry in Europe has experienced significant growth in recent years as a consequence of the integration of its markets. However, the European mutual fund industry is still an unexplored area of research with only a small number of significant studies compared to the US industry. Using a sample of daily survivorship bias-free data on the five most important European mutual fund countries, which includes 2734 mutual funds across all countries, we find statistically significant persistence in the post-ranking quarter across different performance models for all countries. This evidence is present across all deciles including the top-decile and bottom-decile mutual funds. Further, we also extend our analysis to high inflation periods.     

Informed trading around earnings and mutual fund alphas

We examine whether informed trading around earnings announcements drives mutual fund performance. The measure is motivated by prior studies arguing that a mutual fund is skilled if it buys stocks with subsequent high earnings announcement returns. We find that this measure predicts future mutual fund returns. On average, after adjusting for Carhart’s four risk factors, the top decile of mutual funds outperforms the bottom decile by 44 basis points per quarter. By decomposing fund alphas into two components in their relations to earnings, we find that this measure is only associated with earnings-related fund alphas. This measure can also be used to predict stock returns at future earnings announcements.     

Mutual fund characteristics, managerial attributes, and fund performance

This study provides a comprehensive examination of recent mutual fund performance by analyzing a large set of both mutual funds and fund attributes in an effort to link performance to fund-specific characteristics. The results indicate that the hypothesized relationships between performance and the explanatory variables are generally upheld. After taking into consideration general market conditions and fund investment objective, the characteristic variables that relate to fund popularity, growth, cost, and management also explain performance. Finally, after controlling for survivorship and benchmark error as well as fund-specific factors, the results refute the performance persistence phenomenon.