Bank Panics,Government Guarantees,and the Long‐Run Size of the Financial Sector: Evidence from Free‐Banking America

Governments attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making implicit or explicit guarantees of uncertain credibility. Confidence in these guarantees presumably alters the size of the financial sector, but observing the long‐run consequences of failed guarantees is difficult. We look to America's free‐banking era and compare the consequences of a broken guarantee during the Indiana‐centered Panic of 1854 to the Panic of 1857 in which guarantees were honored. Our estimates of a model of endogenous market structure indicate substantial negative long‐run consequences to financial depth when panics cast doubt upon a government's ability to honor its guarantees.       

Credit Rationing and Credit View: Empirical Evidence from an Ethical Bank in Italy

Attempts have been made in the empirical literature to identify credit rationing and its determinants using balance sheet data or evidence from corporate surveys. However, observational equivalence, identification problems, and interview biases are serious problems in these studies. We analyze directly the determinants of credit rationing in credit files by examining the difference between the amounts demanded by and supplied to each borrower, as shown by official bank records. Our findings provide microeconomic evidence that supports the credit view hypothesis by showing that the European Central Bank refinancing rate is significantly and positively related to partial (but not total) credit rationing. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that this variable affects the total volume of bank loans.     

财政支出、银行信贷与经济增长——来自2008年汶川大地震的新因果证据

学术界就财政支出与银行信贷如何影响经济增长这一问题一直未能达成共识.本文将2008年汶川大地震作为研究窗口,在财政支出和银行信贷由于震后出台的行政命令与政策外生化的研究前提下,综合使用合成控制法(SCM)、系统广义矩估计(System GMM)、回归控制法(RCM)、交叉滞后模型(Cross-lagged Panel Model)等方法,检验了地震后财政支出、银行信贷和经济增长的具体变化以及相互作用方向.研究发现:尽管汶川地震后财政支出和银行信贷显著增加,促进了经济增长,但由于震后四川省的直接经济损失较大,最终四川省在短期内GDP明显减少.这一发现明确了财政支出、银行信贷以及经济增长之间的因果关系与作用方向:首先,在中国,财政支出与经济增长之间的因果关系符合“凯恩斯假设”,即财政支出的增加“因果性地”决定了GDP的增长.其次,增加银行信贷能够“因果性地”促进GDP增长.最后,财政支出增加促进了银行信贷的扩张,而非公共投资“挤出”了私人投资.     

媒体报道的信息中介作用:来自我国银行授信的证据

本文基于中国上市公司的媒体报道数据,实证检验了媒体报道对企业获取银行授信的影响。研究发现,在整体上,新闻媒体发挥了重要的信息中介作用;媒体关注度越高、正面报道倾向越强,企业越容易获取银行授信。进一步研究表明,媒体报道对银行授信的作用主要存在于非国有企业、市场化程度高的地区和资产负债率高的企业中;媒体报道对银行授信的影响存在一定的中长期效应;与负面报道相比,媒体正面报道在银行授信中的作用更为显著。本文不仅丰富了媒体报道与银行授信领域的研究,而且为新闻媒体信息中介作用的有效发挥提供了政策启示。     

The Impact of Bank Credit on Employment Formality: Evidence from Uruguay

This article examines the effect of bank credit on employment formalization in Uruguay. Using a difference-in-differences methodology the article finds that financial deepening decreases informality, especially in more financially dependent sectors. In addition, the effect is found to be greater among women and older workers. In the period under analysis the economy underwent a severe economic crisis and bank credit contracted sharply, but we find no evidence that the effect of bank credit on employment formality changed over time.     

银行信贷、非效率投资与僵尸企业——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据

利用2009－2017年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,探究企业非效率投资与僵尸企业的关系,以及银行信贷对非效率投资与僵尸企业之间关系的影响。结果表明：企业的非效率投资与僵尸企业正相关,特别是企业过度投资中耗费的资源、形成的产能具有不可逆性,将直接增加经营风险和财务风险,导致企业沦为僵尸企业;银行信贷对企业僵尸化具有负向调节效应,相对于过度投资来说,银行信贷对于抑制投资不足导致的企业僵尸化问题更加有效;从贷款期限来看,短期贷款能够给债务企业形成流动性压力和再融资压力,迫使企业经理人提高投资效率,从而对企业僵尸化问题的调节效应更显著。     

Cross‐Border Bank M&As and Risk: Evidence from the Bond Market

The impact of cross‐border bank M&As on bank risk remains an open question. Though geographically diversifying bank M&As have the potential to reduce the risk of bank insolvency, they also have the potential to increase that risk due to the increase in risk‐taking incentives by bank managers and stockholders following these transactions. This paper empirically investigates whether cross‐border bank M&As increase or decrease the risk of acquiring banks as captured by changes in acquirers' yield spreads. This paper also investigates how differences in the institutional environments between bidder and target countries affect changes in yield spreads following M&A announcements. The study finds that bondholders, in general, perceive cross‐border bank M&As as risk‐increasing activities, unlike domestic bank mergers. Specifically, on average, yield spreads increase by 4.13 basis points following the announcement of cross‐border M&As. This study also finds that these yield spreads are significantly affected by the differences in investor‐protection and deposit insurance environments between the transacting countries. However, the study does not find that the regulatory and supervisory environment in the home countries of the transacting parties significantly affects the changes in yield spreads. The overall evidence suggests that regulators should judge the relative environment in both the home and the host countries in evaluating the associated risks of an active multinational financial institution and in setting the sufficiency of the banks' reserve positions.     

中国农业发展银行信贷业务的再思考

近年来,中央出台了一系列旨在促进农村金融改革和发展的方针与政策。随着农村金融改革的不断深化,各类金融机构纷纷在"三农"领域加大了投入,服务"三农"能力有所增强。中国农业发展银行(以下简称农发行)作为支持"三农"的中坚力量,国家也赋予了其重要使命。中央一号文件就指出"加大政策性金融对农村改革发展重点领域和薄弱环节支持力度,拓展农发行支农领域,大力开展农业开发和农村基础设施中长期政策性信     

影响银行冒险行为的因素——来自我国银行业的实证检验

本文以15家全国性商业银行的数据为研究样本,采用面板数据二阶段可行广义最小二乘方法检验了影响银行冒险行为的因素.研究发现,银行资本对冒险行为具有显著的负效应,银行规模对冒险行为具有显著的负效应,特许权价值对冒险行为的影响不显著,稳定股东所有权对冒险行为具有显著的负效应,监管压力对冒险行为具有显著的正效应,但对上市银行的冒险行为却具有显著的负效应.     

农发行面临的信贷风险及防范对策

目前，农业发展银行面临的信贷风险主要体现在政策风险、经营风险、信用风险、体制风险和管理风险。要切实防范信贷风险，必须强化风险意识，优化运行环境和硬化防范措施，努力探索一条符合农业政策信贷资金运行规律，将封闭管理与风险管理有机结合起来的新路子。     

The Effect of Credit Risk on Bank and Bank Holding Company Bond Yields: Evidence from the Post-FDICIA Period

In this article we examine whether the federal safety net is viewed by the market as being extended beyond de jure deposits to other bank debt and even the debt of bank holding companies (BHCs). We extend previous research by focusing on the post‐FDICIA period and by examining the risk‐return relation of bonds issued directly by banks, not BHCs. Our results provide evidence that both bank and BHC bonds are priced by the secondary market in relation to their underlying credit risk, particularly for less capitalized issuers, suggesting that proposals requiring banks to issue subordinated debt may enhance market monitoring and discipline and be useful in supplementing regulatory discipline.     

中国农业发展银行信贷政策调整趋势分析

从1994年农业发展银行成立以来,其业务范围便因农业的弱质性特点以及国家的宏观支农政策定位而具有相对的垄断性。但随着我国粮食市场化改革的不断深入及国家粮食购销体制的变化,农业发展银行的政策性信贷范围也不可避免地受到了新兴资本市场以及商业银行的冲击和蚕食。如何调整农发行的信贷政策范围及其管理方式,积极参与这场意义深远的粮食流通体制改革,正是本文要探讨的主要问题。     

Bank discrimination, holding bank ownership, and economic consequences: Evidence from China

This paper finds that compared with Chinese state-owned firms, non-state-owned firms have a greater propensity to hold significant ownership in commercial banks. These results are consistent with the notion that because non-state-owned firms are more likely to suffer bank discrimination for political reasons, they tend to address their financing disadvantages by building economic bonds with banks. We also find that among non-state-owned firms, those that hold significant bank ownership have lower interest expenses, and are less likely to increase cash holdings but more likely to obtain short-term loans when the government monetary policy is tight. These results suggest that the firms building economic bonds with banks can enjoy benefits such as lower financial expenses and better lending terms during difficult times. Finally, we find that non-state-owned firms with significant bank ownership have better operating performance. Overall, we find that firms can reduce discrimination through holding bank ownership.     

Government support for environmental regulation: Evidence from China

With an emphasis on innovation, Porter (1991) challenges the traditional wisdom and then hypothesizes a promotional effect of environmental regulation on firm performance. This paper reveals a complementary source, i.e., government support, to explain the promotional effect in a developing country. We use evidence from China to find a positive causal effect of environmental regulation stringency on firm performance. To justify our theory, we show that state ownership shares of a firm as an exogenous proxy for government support positively moderate the causal effect. We also use causal mediation analysis to document that loans from banks as the representative type of government support mediates the causal effect significantly in statistics and economics.     

The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank

This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit availability. Data from Prosper.com, a peer‐to‐peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, indicate that homeowners in states with declining house prices experience higher interest rates, greater credit rationing, and faster delinquency. We find especially large effects for subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important role in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.     

Government intervention and investment efficiency: Evidence from China

The extant corporate investment literature has documented that information asymmetry and agency conflicts between managers and outside investors prevent firms from making optimal investment decisions. In this study, we investigate whether government intervention, as another form of friction, distorts firms' investment behavior and leads to investment inefficiency. Using Chinese data, we test this by measuring government intervention at two different levels. First, we compare investment efficiency between SOEs and non-SOEs. We find that the sensitivity of investment expenditure to investment opportunities is significantly weaker for SOEs. Second, we measure government intervention by whether a firm is politically connected through the employment of top executives with a government background. We find that political connections significantly reduce investment efficiency in SOEs. However, we do not find such evidence in non-SOEs. Taken together, our findings suggest that government intervention in SOEs through majority state ownership or the appointment of connected managers distorts investment behavior and harms investment efficiency.     

Bank fund reallocation and economic growth: Evidence from China

This paper examines bank fund reallocation and regional economic growth based on 1991–2005 provincial-level data of four state-owned commercial banks of China that practice fund reallocation nation-wide. We find no correlation between bank fund reallocation and regional economic growth or between bank loans and regional economic growth. We find, however, a positive association between bank deposits and growth. It appears economic growth leads financial development in China, not the other way around. Furthermore, as China’s market-oriented reforms deepen, fund reallocation and loans start to manifest positive effects on growth even though the banks are government owned.     

会计稳健性与银行借款契约——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

会计稳健性在银行借款契约中居于重要地位。借款人采用高水平的稳健性可以帮助银行降低风险,相应地,银行会提供一定的优惠作为回报。使用手工收集的2000-2007年中国A股上市公司的单笔银行贷款为研究数据,我们对上述问题进行了实证检验。结果发现,企业的会计稳健性越强,企业获得的每笔贷款金额越大,贷款期限越长,贷款的利率越低。另外,我们发现在法制环境越好,优惠政策越多,政府干预越少的地区,上述关系更为显著。     

Sovereign Credit Risk,Banks' Government Support,and Bank Stock Returns around the World

We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.     

金融科技布局、银行信贷风险与经营绩效——来自商业银行与科技企业战略合作的证据

商业银行通过布局金融科技进行的金融服务创新,已成为深化金融供给侧结构性改革的重要举措。本文通过手工搜集2005—2019年323家商业银行与科技企业战略合作的数据,研究银行布局金融科技如何影响其信贷风险与经营绩效。结果表明：(1)银行布局金融科技战略能降低银行信贷风险,提高银行经营绩效;(2)银行布局金融科技通过提高其自身创新能力与竞争力从而降低银行的信贷风险水平;(3)银行布局金融科技,通过降低信贷风险、提升普惠金融服务、提高运营管理能力与拓展中间业务这四个渠道提高了银行经营绩效;(4)全国性银行发展金融科技使其信贷风险水平得到降低,资本充足率低的银行通过布局金融科技降低信贷风险的效果更强。同时,信用贷款比重越高的银行通过发展金融科技降低信贷风险、提高经营绩效的效果更加明显。本文研究有助于理解商业银行顺势而为所进行的金融科技布局的微观经济后果,也为进一步完善金融服务实体经济相关政策提供参考。