Recent growth trends in developing countries

The unprecedented economic conditions of the mid-1970s have created problems with economic development for all countries of the world. Recent economic growth trends in the following main groups of developing countries are reviewed: 1) low-income countries; 2) lower middle-income countries; 3) intermediate middle-income countries; 4) upper middle-come countries; and 5) balance of payments deficit oil exporting countries. Economic indicators for each group of countries are tabulated. The tables show that the developing countries have continued domestic economic growth at only moderately slower rates during the years since 1973. They have been helped by foreign aid or private-source borrowing. As a group, they have, in fact, helped to keep the world economy from plunging deeper into recession and to prevent world trade from contracting more than it actually did already in 1974 and 1975. The performance of these developing economies during these difficult years contributes to continued optimism regarding their future prospects.     

Twenty twenty-five

A brief review of the studies that have brought about awareness of the limits of natural resources is followed by an examination of the prospects of population increases and demand for food, water and energy in the North and South of the world. For physical and thermodynamic reasons the production and consumption of increasing quantities of material goods is accompanied by the depletion and deteriorating quality of the resources left for future generations. Only a decrease in the consumption of goods and energy in the North of the world will enable the South to have sufficient natural resources to free itself from poverty and set out on the path leading to human development.     

The future of religions

The global future of religions is considered in the context of ‘worldviews’ which, unlike traditional Western beliefs, combine religious and secular belief systems into a dynamic functioning whole. Seven world blocs relating to seven worldviews are identified: the ‘democratic West’ (with a largely Christian background); the Euro—Asian Marxist bloc; the Islamic crescent from Indonesia to North Africa; the non-Marxist, non-Islamic cultures of old Asia; Latin America; Black Africa south of the Sahara; and the smaller countries of the Pacific. The dual forces of individualism and nationalism will have the largest impact on the future development and interactions of religions. The most powerful changes politically will be the convergence of the interests of Christianity and Western humanism on the one hand, and Buddhism and other religions on the other. The ecumenical North—South character emerging in Christianity will make the churches more critical of the present economic system, ‘privatized’ religion will appear in the Marxist countries, hardline Judaism will intensify in the USA (despite developments in Israel) and the friction between radical Hindu and Islamic values will increase (especially in India) and could be a major factor in warfare over the next 30 years.     

Energy and habitat: Designing a sustainable urban ecosystem

As the world's cities grow so new ways of satisfying their demands for food and fuel resources will have to be found, especially in the third world where total fuel demands are expected to expand several fold in one generation. An ecological model for a future complex urban community is presented to illustrate the place of energy in a growing system and how habitat—the physical component—possesses life cycles interdependent with living species. Recycling, biomass fuels, telecommunications, marine living and the propagation of viable organizations are all elements that will enable the globe to sustain future expanding metropolises.     

The evolution and future of the BRICS: Unbundling politics from economics

Under the current global forces, economics muddled with politics is exerting undue pressures on the BRICS countries and is challenging the sustainability of their accord. Unanticipated problems are increasingly inhibiting economic and social prosperity. This paper analyzes the current difficulties that the BRICS are facing, scrutinizes their unique individual economic and political environments, and ventures to anticipate their prospects. Our consensus is that the future prosperity of these countries depends not only on their individual political and economic environments, but also on the major global powers. Furthermore, the current inevitable interconnectivity of politics and economics provides foresight into their future role on the world stage.     

The prospects for the developing world: a review of recent forecasts

This article addresses the future aspects of developing countries during the 1980s. To do so it has drawn on recent reports about the future of the world's economy. Even widespread failures of harvests and the increase in the price of oil in the 1970s did not diminish the optimistic attitude about the future in the 1980s. The original World Bank projections predicted a 5.7%/annum increase in gross domestic product and a substantial reduction in the level of poverty. The 1980 report paints a very pessimistic picture due to: the structural changes which the world economy is undergoing (changes in demand and production, slower economies, declines in productivity growth, etc.), world interdependence, and reduction of world resources. Other reports and studies have arrived at the same general conclusions. The predictions of the authors of "Interfutures" are also marked with considerable pessimism. They said that future uncertainties could lead to political rifts as well as economic and social problems. The Brandt commission report sketches a bleak picture for the world economy. Despite the consensus among the varous reports concerning the future in the developing nations, there are differences of opinion concerning the ability of these nations to adjust to the difficult circumstances. Certain actions must be taken immediately--generate more resources for development, measures to reduce oil and food imports, long-term goals should include improvements in administration, increasing agricultural productivity, and better utilizing available resources. The Brandt Commission is less optimistic about the world's ability to help the poor out of its troubles. The OECD targets sub-Saharan Africa as the area to be dealt with immediately. Basically, these developing nations will not be able to rely on industrialization and cheap energy for their growth.     

Renewable Governance: Good for the Environment?

We conjecture that board renewal mechanisms—those substantive enough to renew the thinking of the board—are required before investors can address the mismatch between their preferences regarding environmental sustainability and what insiders at firms are actually doing. We identify the adoption of majority voting for directors and the introduction of a female director as two corporate governance mechanisms potentially strong enough to renew a board's thinking on sustainability. Using a sample of 3,293 firms from 41 countries, along with quasi-exogenous shocks to board renewal mechanisms in Canada and France, we find that both board renewal mechanisms are associated with significantly higher future environmental performance. Further tests provide suggestive evidence that board renewal is more strongly associated with environmental performance in settings with better institutions and more motivated institutional investors. These results suggest the importance of board renewal for alignment of firm policies with investor preferences around the world.     

Space: Battlefield of the future?

This article examines the trends in the development and deployment of weapons systems for use in space—both the ‘conventional’ and the more exotic space weapon technologies for antisatellite operations and ballistic missile defence. The feasibility of such weapons is assessed and the prospects for future development and deployment considered. The political and strategic implications of these trends are such that there is an urgent need for measures to slow down, or stop, the militarization of space.     

Das Umlageverfahren ist besser als sein Ruf

The article concerns three substantial aspects of the continuous discussion regarding the future ability of the pension system in Germany: The conclusions from rate of return comparisons between paygo system and fully funded system, the distribution of loads by the demography development and effects of the exertion of political influence. In a first step, the politico-economic conclusions drawn from rate of return comparisons are analysed critically. It is shown that the empirically measurable difference is nothing but a spurious reason for the introductions of a capital funded system. With help of simple economic thoughts, the second central argument for a change of system, the ?fair“ distribution of loads caused by the demographic development, turns out to be a spurious reason as well. The central problem of the pension scheme is the exertion of political influence — an aspect, which is hardly considered in the discussion. Thus it becomes clear that the problem of the pension system consists in the concrete arrangement and not in the system itself. Some approaches for the solution of this problem are pointed out.     

Scenario analysis in interfutures

The interfutures project used a scenario approach and focused on issues of economic development over the next 20 years. The author describes the five main stages of scenario construction and gives a summary of the six scenarios which were finally chosen. The scenarios provide possible boundaries for the world economy in the year 2000. If there are no major discontinuities, most OECD countries are likely to experience structural unemployment, protectionism, and moderate rates of growth throughout the next decade—the outlook for Third-world countries is perhaps more favourable, with growth rates generally higher than in the OECD countries.     

Beyond protectionism

Protectionist forces are growing in many industrial countries, and will be a significant factor in world trade in the early 1980s. However, an important counterforce is at work—the changing population distribution, and particularly age structure, of the industrial countries. The decrease in the number of 16–24-year olds available to enter the labour force, together with the increase in postsecondary education, suggest that there will be a dearth of semiskilled workers starting in the 1980s. A longer-term perspective may lead to policies which mitigate the protectionist threat.     

中国金融资源地区分布差异问题分析

随着国内外环境的变化和发达地区经济实力的不断增强,区域经济发展不协调的现象还有加大的趋势。金融资源地区分布的失衡是区域经济发展不协调的主要原因之一。我国的金融资源地区分布存在相当明显的地域差别。促进我国金融资源在地区间合理分布,充分发挥金融资源的作用,将有利于我国区域经济的均衡发展。     

Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in a warming world

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper defines and describes three types of such megapatterns that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement and activity structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.The major findings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as the virgin Sub-Polar Regions—mostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chile—start to get warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.     

The future of European development aid

Development assistance represents one mechanism for the redistribution of global wealth. This article examines key external challenges that the development aid systems in the EU currently confront. Among the most important elements of the changing backdrop against which decisions on preparing EU development cooperation for the future will be made are the increasing differentiation of countries within the developing world and the rise of new global development actors, and the growing prominence of issue linkages between security and development and the environment and development. These challenges raise important questions for the EU concerning the future rationale and organization of development assistance.     

气候融资:全球形势及中国问题研究

气候融资不仅是国际气候谈判的筹码,也是全球应对气候变化的融资需要和各国促进绿色经济发展的要求。在当前欧美经济尚难以从低谷中恢复的背景下,对气候资金机制的国际谈判和国内创新也提出了更高的要求。中国作为最大的发展中国家和最大的碳排放国,满足不断增长应对气候变化和绿色增长的资金需求已是当务之急。中国是国际气候资金筹集和运用得最好的发展中国家之一,但仍需认清当前全球气候融资来源存在较大不确定性,且资金流向不平衡,国际气候融资的形式和实质间存在较大差距。同时,我们对气候资金的管理、筹措及运用仍存在诸多问题。因此,从管理上,应完善与规划本国气候融资的整体框架,明确气候融资的管理部门,出台系列气候融资政策。在资金筹措和运用上,应保持吸引国际气候资金的优势,并发挥财政性工具和金融性工具的作用,大力吸引国内气候资金,引导资金在减缓和适应气候变化两个领域平衡投入。     

国际货币体系将走向何方——论蒙代尔的理想蓝图和现实障碍

本文针对蒙代尔所提出的世界货币构想,通过回顾世界货币体系的发展史、货币霸权的更迭以及各国汇率制度的变迁,认为在黄金总量不足和分布不均的情况下,回归金本位比起美元信用本位更不利于发展中国家的发展;主要货币区的形成趋势较为明显,在和平合作的国际环境下有益于国际经济的发展;主要货币国难以放弃浮动汇率而归于DEY框架下的固定汇率;虚化的DEY难以真正扮演世界货币的角色。     

The role of the family in development

It is important for the development planner to view the family as a flexible organizational unit of individuals who have different roles, privileges, rewards, options, and obligations. In developing countries the criteria for distributing resources and responsibilities within families are not the same as the Western criteria of development needs and requirements. Neither do sex and age, particularly among the poor, determine the roles people play in the family. Women play important productive roles in developing countries and a critical role in the cultivation of all crops, subsistence and cash, in sub-Saharan Africa. Children also make important contributions. Although all family members must work hard, scarce resources and immediate needs frequently result in unequal distribution of resources and access to services. All members of low-income families in developing countries are involved in the struggle for survival, for no 1 income source is adequate. The family's decision-making process is implicit in all its distribution of both responsibilities and resources. If wives in poor households are able to retain control of their earnings, they can have more power. In sub-Saharan Africa, where the women have a major agricultural role, their power bases are broader.     

China and Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Partnership at the Start of the Twenty-First Century

Over the past decade, cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in the oil and gas sector has developed significantly. For China, security of its energy supply is a key strategic objective. This paper analyzes the evolution of Sino-Kazakh oil and gas relations, assesses their long-term prospects, and explores how Chinese demand for oil and gas could divert Kazakhstan’s hydrocarbon resources from other energy markets. The netback approach has been used to assess the prices that China will need to offer other producers in Kazakhstan. Sino-Kazakh energy and economic cooperation could create a good basis for free economic zones and development of beneficial ties for both countries.     

Semi-rational expectations and exchange-rate dynamics

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) asserts that, on average, the economic agents are accurate in predicting future economic developments. The paper demonstrates, however, that in a world of costly information, individual rationality may result in consistent and persistent forecasting biases. A distinction is drawn between perfect foresight or efficient forecasting—which is consistent with the REH—and myopic perfect foresight—which is the profit maximizing, and thus the rational one from an individualistic point of view, even though the latter may result in persistently biased forecasting. These concepts are illustrated in a model of exchange rate dynamics which introduces myopic or ‘semi’ rationality into Dornbusch's familiar model.     

Communication capability as an intrinsic determinant for information age

One of the prerequisites of the information society is advanced communication resources and skills made possible by new technology, services and infrastructure, and required of individuals and organisations alike. Approaching the subject through theoretical analysis as well as empirical study, this paper aims to answer questions concerning the required standards of communication capability and how such demands develop in the face of continually developing information technology. Areas discussed include the level of required skills and the penetration of modern technologies in Finland, one of the most advanced societies in the world in the use of information and communication technology. The indices used to describe these skills are also discussed. Finally, current developments pointing towards the information society are assessed from the viewpoint of marginalisation and future prospects.