A decade of global modelling

One result of ten years of global modelling is an inspiring, inspired, and concerned community of modellers. Another is that, despite their many differences (which are briefly discussed), common messages emerge from the various models. This paper also presents some guidelines for model users.     

Global modelling revisited

Reasons for the great impact of World Dynamics and Limits to Growth include their addressing the correct audience (the public), and the ability of systems dynamics clearly to handle and communicate information on complex and often little understood areas. Modelling projects should usually be global or national (not regional), draw heavily on mental and not just written and numerical databases, and have time horizons of perhaps 100 years. Sadly, critics of Worlds 2 and 3 have yet to come to grips with the fundamental messages presented there, although these messages are becoming increasingly vital.     

Lessons from global modelling and modellers

Two key lessons arising from ten years of global modelling are, first, that there are indeed lessons to be learned—eg ‘business as usual’ is not a viable world future, but the will to change economic, political and social structures could indeed create a decent and sustainable standard of living for all; second, many of the lessons are fairly obvious, but there is a great reluctance, even amongst global modellers, to take them into account—eg the real-world importance of politics is rarely represented in models, or the need to take great care not to mislead when publicizing results.     

Modellers and politicians

The value of global modelling has been severely restricted by poor appreciation of the constraints under which governments and politicians operate. Equally, the value of governments and politicians has been severely restricted by largely ignoring the very real but less immediate problems tackled by modellers. Modellers should try to influence the political agenda through direct, two-way interaction with politicians, and through addressing the electorate.     

The Finance–Growth Nexus and Poverty Reduction in Western China

In this article, we study the effect of financial development (FD) on economic growth in western China. Special attention is paid to the western region because of the large-scale development strategy in West China. We specify the regression models based on the endogenous growth theory. The empirical results show that (1) FD can promote economic growth mainly through improving TFP; (2) FD is more important than human capital in promoting GDP growth; (3) The effect of FD on TFP growth is significant statistically in all regions, but it is the most significant economically in the western region of China.     

对国外股指期货市场发展的思考

本文从股指期货的定义和发展过程入手,依次对美国、日本、新加坡股指期货市场的发展历程进行了介绍。通过比较,分析它们在各自发展过程中取得的成就,总结其经验教训,并结合中国国情,提出中国在发展股指期货市场中应注意的问题。     

全球金融危机成因的综合反思

2007年金融危机起源于金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家,是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的,是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整。金融层面的原因在于次贷危机．金融创新过度,金融衍生产品泛滥,美国金融体系存在诸多不完善之处．金融监管不力、缺失。从经济层面分析,美国国内经济失衡是危机爆发的基础原因．全球经济失衡是金融危机爆发的深层原因,金融危机是市场经济周期运行的必然结果。制度层面的原因主要包括过度干预经济,美国模式的技术缺陷和不合理的国际货币体系。     

全球金融危机成因的综合反思

2007年金融危机发生在金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家,是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的,是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整.金融层面的原因在于次贷危机,金融创新过度,金融衍生产品泛滥,美国金融体系存在诸多不完善之处,金融监管不力、缺失.从经济层面分析,美国国内经济失衡是危机爆发的基础原因,全球经济失衡是2007年金融危机爆发的深层原因,金融危机是市场经济周期运行的必然结果.制度层面的原因主要包括过度干预经济,美国模式的技术缺陷和不合理的国际货币体系.     

新发展格局下金融对经济高质量发展各维度支持效应研究

根据构建新发展格局要求,建立经济高质量发展评价指标体系,并将其细分为经济发展强度、合理化及外向性三个维度,进一步运用MF-VAR模型探究金融发展对经济高质量发展不同维度的具体支持效应.结果显示:金融发展能够迅速刺激经济发展强度的提升,对技术创新支持效应显著;而其对发展合理化的影响则最为显著且持久,即稳定的金融市场仍是经济长期协调发展的重要助力.特别地,金融规模的持续扩大会抑制发展强度,但对发展合理化及外向性水平的影响微弱,因此应防范可能出现的过度金融化问题.     

Inequality, Crime and Economic Growth. A Classical Argument for Distributional Equality

This paper studies the dynamic general-equilibrium interactions between inequality, crime and economic growth by embedding the rational choice-theoretical approach to criminal behavior in a heterogeneous-agents endogenous-growth OLG model. Based on their respective opportunity costs, individuals choose to specialize in either legal or criminal activities. While legal households contribute to aggregate goods supply over time by either working or building human capital, criminals make a living by expropriating legal citizens of part of the latter's income. An increase in inequality lowers the economy's growth rate and possesses negative welfare effects for all agents with endowments equal to or above average and for agents with endowment below average that are born sufficiently far in the future.     

Income Inequality: A Tale of Two Cycles?

Building on previous work, this paper documents the changes in income inequality that have occurred over the past 20 years, right up until the late 1990s. In particular, we are interested in whether or not the path of inequality in the most recent economic cycle differed from that observed in the 1980s. The robustness of the results is investigated using innovative statistical techniques, in an attempt to identify whether or not the observed changes represent real increases or decreases in inequality or whether they can be attributed simply to sampling variation between years. Finally, some preliminary results are presented which attempt to identify some of the reasons underlying the observed trends in income inequality, with a particular focus on the role of the labour market.     

Do Interregional Transfers Improve the Economic Performance of Poor Regions? The Case of Spain

The 17 regional governments of Spain receive grants from both the central government and the European Union. The grants are generally redistributive and are intended to stimulate economic activity in the poorer regions. We evaluate the effectiveness of the grants by comparing the economic performance of the regions before and after the implementation of the grant programs using a differences-in-differences approach. We find that these policies have not been effective at stimulating private investment or improving the overall economies of the poorer regions.     

当前全国和上海经济形势

今年以来,全国和上海经济总体运行平稳有序,但下行压力加大。本文就2014年前三季度经济运行的数据．分别分析了全国和上海经济发展的新变化及面临的突出问题．预计我国全年GDP增速在7.3％至7．4％左右,上海经济有望保持7％左右的增长水平。