Institute for the future's study of the UK, 1978–1995

The method used expert opinions (collected through interviews), scenario generation, and a simple econometric model. Some methodological innovations are reported; eg aids to assist experts in thinking ahead, and in how scenarios are generated and aggregated.     

A decade of global modelling

One result of ten years of global modelling is an inspiring, inspired, and concerned community of modellers. Another is that, despite their many differences (which are briefly discussed), common messages emerge from the various models. This paper also presents some guidelines for model users.     

Worlds in collision: Is a rational energy policy possible for Western Europe?

The image of worlds in collision is apt as the overlay to any discussion of energy policy in Western Europe. It is suggested here that there are several rationalities or managing strategies that people choose to use to deal effectively or cope with the world around them. Of the five basic paradigms, three play an active role in the social conflict over energy policy. Two of these are nearly diametrically opposed in that what one ‘sees’ as the problem, the other ‘sees’ as the solution. A bridging group provides an institutional framework so the opposing two can co-exist. From acceptance of these different realities as valid and necessary to near- as well as long-term human interests, a policy approach is suggested. It is addressed primarily to this bridging group, and is designed to limit or remove the blocking role played by one of the other active groups.     

1948 and not nineteen eighty-four

This article marks the return of I.F. Clarke to the pages of Futures. Those readers who have followed Futures since our first number in September 1968 will recall his long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques. He likes to be known as the oldest inhabitant of Futures so far. Professor Clarke was once described, with some accuracy, as ‘Mr Future’ by a Glasgow newspaper. The style recognized the work he has done in the investigation of the many ways in which our ideas about the future have evolved and have found expression in science fiction, imaginary wars, ideal states, Orwellian nightmares and in the proliferation of futurological studies that have swept the world since Ossip K. Flechtheim coined the term futurologist in 1943. This specially commissioned article on Orwell's true place in futures studies serves as an hors d'oeuvre to a new series in Futures by Professor Clarke: “An almanac of anticipations” will begin in the next issue.     

Global modelling revisited

Reasons for the great impact of World Dynamics and Limits to Growth include their addressing the correct audience (the public), and the ability of systems dynamics clearly to handle and communicate information on complex and often little understood areas. Modelling projects should usually be global or national (not regional), draw heavily on mental and not just written and numerical databases, and have time horizons of perhaps 100 years. Sadly, critics of Worlds 2 and 3 have yet to come to grips with the fundamental messages presented there, although these messages are becoming increasingly vital.     

Lessons from global modelling and modellers

Two key lessons arising from ten years of global modelling are, first, that there are indeed lessons to be learned—eg ‘business as usual’ is not a viable world future, but the will to change economic, political and social structures could indeed create a decent and sustainable standard of living for all; second, many of the lessons are fairly obvious, but there is a great reluctance, even amongst global modellers, to take them into account—eg the real-world importance of politics is rarely represented in models, or the need to take great care not to mislead when publicizing results.     

Paradigms lost?: Reflections on the coming organizational ‘revolution’

The question of optimal organizational change for the future is attracting growing interest. The authors examine the literature to date and find that its basic tenets are too simplistic and over-optimistic to provide a methodological base for evaluation of change in the future.     

Modellers and politicians

The value of global modelling has been severely restricted by poor appreciation of the constraints under which governments and politicians operate. Equally, the value of governments and politicians has been severely restricted by largely ignoring the very real but less immediate problems tackled by modellers. Modellers should try to influence the political agenda through direct, two-way interaction with politicians, and through addressing the electorate.