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1.
《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(2):203-211
Traders in a market typically have widely different, private information on the return of an asset. The equilibrium price of the asset may reflect this information more accurately if the number of traders is large enough compared to the number of the states of the world that determine the return of the asset. We study the transition from markets where prices do not reflect the information accurately into markets where it does. In competitive markets, this transition takes place suddenly, at a critical value of the ratio between number of states and number of traders. The Nash equilibrium market behaves quite differently from a competitive market even in the limit of large economies.  相似文献   

2.
Arbitrage Chains     
A privately informed trader will engage in costly arbitrage, that is, trade on his knowledge that the price of an asset is different from the fundamental value if: (1) his order does not move the price immediately to reflect the information; and (2) he can hold the asset until the date when the information is reflected in the price. We study a general equilibrium model in which all agents optimize. In each period, there may be a trader with a limited horizon who has private information about a distant event. Whether he acts on his information, and whether subsequent informed traders act, is shown to depend on the possibility of a sequence or chain of future informed traders spanning the event date. An arbitrageur who receives good news will buy only if it is likely that, at the end of his trading horizon, a subsequent arbitrageur's buying will have pushed up the expected price. We show that limited trading horizons result in inefficient prices, because informed traders do not act on their information until the event date is sufficiently close. We also show that limited horizons can arise because of the cost-carry associated with holding an arbitrage portfolio over an extended period of time.  相似文献   

3.
This paper investigates the influence of information asymmetry on the cross‐sectional variation of volume‐return relation. We find that the dynamic volume‐return relation within medium‐size trades has the most significant response to the degree of information asymmetry. We also show that the effect of information asymmetry on the volume‐return dynamics migrates to small‐size trades in recent years, especially in larger stocks. These results are consistent with the notion that informed traders prefer medium‐size trades and this preference has shifted to small‐size trades. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating informed traders’ trade‐size decision in the examination of the dynamic volume‐return relation.  相似文献   

4.
An individual who chooses to serve as a market-maker is assumed to optimize his position by setting a bid-ask spread which maximizes the difference between expected revenues received from liquidity-motivated traders and expected losses to information-motivated traders. By characterizing the cost of supplying quotes, as writing a put and a call option to an information-motivated trader, it is shown that the bid-ask spread is a positive function of the price level and return variance, a negative function of measures of market activity, depth, and continuity, and negatively correlated with the degree of competition. Thus, the theory of information effects on the bid-ask spread proposed in this paper is consistent with the empirical literature.  相似文献   

5.
Our study adds to the literature by providing initial evidence on the interaction between short-horizon return predictability and investors’ sentiment by traders’ types on US commodity futures market. We find that the short-term contrarian profit is more associated with an increase rather than a decrease in hedgers’ sentiment. However, the interaction between lagged return and past change in speculators’ sentiment illustrates that the short-term contrarian profit is more associated with a decrease rather than an increase in sentiment. Based on behavioral finance theories, we conclude that hedgers behave like irrational traders while speculators behave like rational ones. Using Chou et al. (2007) decomposition, our results confirm the obtained relations between change in trader's sentiment and the overreaction. By expanding this decomposition, we find that the winners’ portfolio tends to more overreact with futures specific information. Also, the cross-autocorrelation between winners and losers and between losers and winners can represent another source of contrarian profits.  相似文献   

6.
A technique is presented for deriving equilibrium models of asset risk premia in continuous time models which does not require the complete solution of a consumer's continuous time stochastic control problem. The technique is used to show that even if traders have heterogeneous information about asset returns and/or there are non-traded assets, then the risk premium of a traded asset is determined by the covariance between the asset's return and the rate of change in per capita consumption. We only require the assumption that traders' consumptions and traded asset values form an Ito process.  相似文献   

7.
This paper introduces uncertainty regarding the proportion of informed traders in a rational expectation equilibrium model with asymmetric information. The proportion uncertainty dramatically changes the properties of the resulting equilibrium. First, it may generate multiple nonlinear rational expectations equilibria, which can help explain the excessive volatility of stock prices. Second, the expected price informativeness is a non-monotonic function of the proportion of informed traders, which suggests that the traders will have more incentive to become informed as the proportion of informed traders gets larger.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, we extend the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between the state of the limit order book (LOB) and order choice. Our contribution is twofold: first, we propose a sequential ordered probit (SOP) model which allows studying patient and impatient traders’ choices separately; second, we consider two pieces of LOB information, the best quotes and the book beyond the best quotes. We find that both pieces of LOB information explain the degree of patience of an incoming trader and, afterwards, its order choice. Nonetheless, the best quotes concentrate most of the explanatory power of the LOB. The shape of the book beyond the best quotes is crucial in explaining the aggressiveness of patient (limit order) traders, while impatient (market order) traders base their decisions primarily on the best quotes. Patient traders’ choices depend more on the state of the LOB on the same side of the market, while impatient traders mostly look at the state of the LOB on the opposite side. The aggressiveness of both types of traders augments with the inside spread. However, patient (impatient) traders submit more (less) aggressive limit (market) orders when the depth of the own (opposite) best quote and the length of the own (opposite) side of the book increase. We also find that higher depth away from the best ask (bid) quote may signal that this quote is ‘too low (high)’, causing incoming impatient buyers (sellers) to be more aggressive and incoming patient sellers (buyers) to be more conservative.  相似文献   

9.
Technical trading strategies make profits by identifying and exploiting patterns in market prices—patterns generated by the interaction of market participants. Using a model market populated by individuals using a range of trading rules we show that the presence of technical traders may be beneficial, in some cases reducing volatility and increasing price efficiency. In particular, contrarian traders who base their decisions on high frequency data have the largest positive effect. It is also found that if technical traders condition their actions using ‘real time’ information, they partially emulate arbitrageurs and make positive profits.  相似文献   

10.
知情交易概率是指知情交易委托单占总交易委托单的比重,用于度量我国知情交易强度。R2代表公司回报率能被市场回报率解释的程度,R2越大,股价信息含量越低。在以往的研究基础上,利用面板数据来考察知情交易概率与股价信息含量的关系,发现知情交易概率越低,R2越高,股价信息含量越低。在控制了流动性与部分公司财务指标后,实证结果依然显示我国股价信息含量与知情交易概率存在正相关关系,说明我国知情交易者进行交易时,更有利于公司特质信息进入股票价格。  相似文献   

11.
This paper has two purposes. The first is to derive rules identifying the deprival value of an asset (i) which is irreversible to one extent or another; (ii) the benefit stream of which is subject to continuing uncertainty; and (iii) for which an option to wait exists as to when to reacquire should the owner be deprived of it. The second is to consider whether accounting rates of return employing these deprival value rules can be developed to help in the detection of monopoly profits in circumstances where investment decision-making takes place in the presence of irreversibility, uncertainty and the existence of timing options. The ‘new’ deprival value rules for an asset differ from the ‘conventional’ ones in that present value less the value of the option to reinvest in the asset appears in the ‘new’ rules wherever present value appears in the ‘conventional’ rules. Examples are provided which suggest that ‘new’ and ‘conventional’ deprival value rules can differ materially. A further result is that accounting rates of return can be developed using the ‘new’ deprival value rules that are, in principle, useful in the detection of monopoly profits. Nonetheless, in practice such use requires a level of information that renders the result superfluous in the sense that the provision of replacement cost balance sheet data, combined with the level of information needed, is sufficient to reveal the presence of monopoly profits directly.  相似文献   

12.
Recent market events have reinvigorated the search for realistic return models that capture greater likelihoods of extreme movements. In this paper we model the medium-term log-return dynamics in a market with both fundamental and technical traders. This is based on a trade arrival model with variable size orders and a general arrival-time distribution. With simplifications we are led in the jump-free case to a local volatility model defined by a hybrid SDE mixing both arithmetic and geometric or CIR Brownian motions, whose solution in the geometric case is given by a class of integrals of exponentials of one Brownian motion against another, in forms considered by Yor and collaborators. The reduction of the hybrid SDE to a single Brownian motion leads to an SDE of the form considered by Nagahara, which is a type of ‘Pearson diffusion’, or, equivalently, a hyperbolic OU SDE. Various dynamics and equilibria are possible depending on the balance of trades. Under mean-reverting circumstances we arrive naturally at an equilibrium fat-tailed return distribution with a Student or Pearson Type~IV form. Under less-restrictive assumptions, richer dynamics are possible, including time-dependent Johnson-SU distributions and bimodal structures. The phenomenon of variance explosion is identified that gives rise to much larger price movements that might have a priori been expected, so that ‘25σ’ events are significantly more probable. We exhibit simple example solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation that shows how such variance explosion can hide beneath a standard Gaussian facade. These are elementary members of an extended class of distributions with a rich and varied structure, capable of describing a wide range of market behaviors. Several approaches to the density function are possible, and an example of the computation of a hyperbolic VaR is given. The model also suggests generalizations of the Bougerol identity. We touch briefly on the extent to which such a model is consistent with the dynamics of a ‘flash-crash’ event, and briefly explore the statistical evidence for our model.  相似文献   

13.
This paper discusses the concept of market information efficiency and demonstrates the following: As the number of traders who participate in the market becomes large, the variations in the price of a security caused by the variations in traders' beliefs make the market price vary as if traders all knew the ‘true’ distribution of returns on the security. The empirical implications of the analysis are also explored.  相似文献   

14.
A complete understanding of security markets requires a simultaneous explanation of price behavior, trading volume, portfolio composition (ie., asset allocation), and bid-ask spreads. In this paper, these variables are observed in a controlled setting—a computerized double auction market, similar to NASDAQ. Our laboratory allows experimental control of information arrival—whether simultaneously or sequentially received, and whether homogeneous or heterogeneous. We compare the price, volume, and share allocations of three market equilibrium models: telepathic rational expectations, which assumes that traders can read each others minds (strong-form market efficiency); ordinary rational expectations, which assumes traders can use (some) market price information, (a type of semi-strong form efficiency); and private information, where traders use no market information. We conclude 1) that stronger-form market models predict equilibrium prices better than weaker-form models, 2) that there were fewer misallocation forecasts in simultaneous information arrival (SIM) environments, 3) that trading volume was significantly higher in SIM environments, 4) and that bid-ask spreads widen significantly when traders are exposed to price uncertainty resulting from information heterogeneity.  相似文献   

15.
This paper studies a financial market populated by adaptive traders. Learning is modeled following Camerer and Ho (1999) . A call market and a Walrasian tatonnement are compared in an environment in which both institutions have the same Nash and competitive equilibrium outcomes. When traders learn via a belief‐based model, equilibrium is discovered in both types of markets. In contrast, when traders learn via a reinforcement‐based model, convergence to equilibrium is achieved in the Walrasian tatonnement but not in the call market. This paper suggests that market mechanisms can be designed to foster traders' learning of equilibrium strategies.  相似文献   

16.
We investigate the informational role of volume and its applicability for technical analysis. We develop a new equilibrium model in which aggregate supply is fixed and traders receive signals with differing quality. We show that volume provides information on information quality that cannot be deduced from the price statistic. We show how volume, information precision, and price movements relate, and demonstrate how sequences of volume and prices can be informative. We also show that traders who use information contained in market statistics do better than traders who do not. Technical analysis thus arises as a natural component of the agents' learning process.  相似文献   

17.
Bilson has described the empirical finding that the forward exchange rate overestimates the speed of return to equilibrium as a finding of ‘excessive speculation’, and has drawn implications for the volatility of the exchange rate. The present paper pursues this tack within the sticky-price monetary model made famous by Dornbusch. It is shown theoretically that if the market overestimates the speed of adjustment, the degree of overshooting is reduced. In this sense ‘excessive speculation’ leads to reduced volatility.  相似文献   

18.
We study return predictability using a model of speculative trading among competitive traders who agree to disagree about the precision of private information. Although traders apply Bayes' Law consistently, returns are predictable. In addition to trading on long-term fundamental value, traders also trade on perceived short-term opportunities arising from foreseen future disagreement, as in a Keynesian beauty contest. Contradicting conventional wisdom, this short-term speculation dampens price fluctuations and generates time-series momentum. Model calibration shows quantitatively realistic patterns of return dynamics. Consistent with empirical evidence, our model predicts more pronounced momentum for stocks with higher trading volume.  相似文献   

19.
This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders’ characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with high price impact. More information is conveyed by those traders’ trades which—simultaneously—use medium-sized orders (practice stealth trading), have large trading volume, are located in a financial center, trade early in the trading session, at times of wide spreads and when the order book is thin.  相似文献   

20.
In this paper, we propose a co-integration model with a logistic mixture auto-regressive equilibrium error (co-integrated LMAR), in which the equilibrium relationship among cumulative returns of different financial assets is modelled by a logistic mixture autoregressive time series model. The traditional autoregression (AR) based unit root test (ADF test), used in testing co-integration, cannot give a sound explanation when a time series passes the ADF test. However, its largest root in the AR polynomial is extremely close to, but less than, one, which is most likely the result of a mixture of random-walk and mean-reverting processes in the time series data. With this background, we put an LMAR model into the co-integration framework to identify baskets that have a large spread but are still well co-integrated. A sufficient condition for the stationarity of the LMAR model is given and proved using a Markovian approach. A two-step estimating procedure, combining least-squares estimation and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, is given. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used in model selection. The co-integrated LMAR model is applied to basket trading, which is a widely used tool for arbitrage. We use simulation to assess the model in basket trading strategies with the statistical arbitrage feature in equity markets. Data from several sectors of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index are used in a simulation study on basket trading. Empirical results show that a portfolio using the co-integrated LMAR model has a higher return than portfolios selected by traditional methods. Although the volatility in the return increases, the Sharpe ratio also increases in most cases. This risk–return profile can be explained by the shorter converging period in the co-integrated LMAR model and the larger volatility in the ‘mean-reverting’ regime.  相似文献   

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